Labour’s Northern List

March 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am by David Farrar

Tim Donoghue at the Dom Post has got hold of Labour’s list rankings for the Northern Region. Somewhat disappointing to see they are once again protecting all their incumbent MPs by ranking them ahead of any newcomers, no matter how talented.  But even that may see some List MPs fall away.

The average of the polls have getting 42 seats. They currently have 31 electorate seats and it is not unreasonable to assume they will lose two Maori seats and five general electorate seats so assume 24 electorates and 18 List MPs. Where I note likely to win a seat, this is not a prediction or a concession. It is an assumption for this scenario.  Things can and will change in a campaign.

Now let us look at their Northern List:

  1. 1. Helen Clark* -likely to win seat
  2. 2. Phil Goff* – likely to win seat
  3. 3. Chris Carter* – likely to win seat
  4. 4. David Cunliffe* – likely to win seat
  5. 5. * – 1st list spot
  6. 6. Judith Tizard* – likely to win seat
  7. 7. * – 2nd list spot
  8. 8. Lynne Pillay* – likely to win seat
  9. 9. * – 3rd list spot
  10. 10. * – 4th list spot
  11. 11. * – 5th list spot
  12. 12. * – 6th list spot
  13. 13. Sua William Sio – likely to win seat
  14. 14. – 7th list spot
  15. 15. – 8th list spot
  16. 16. Hamish McCracken – 9th list spot
  17. 17. Carmel Sepulone – 10th list spot
  18. 18. Kelvin Davis – 11th list spot
  19. 19. Michael Wood – 12th list spot
  20. 20. Kate Sutton – 13th list spot

Now how many winnable list places would there be in Northern Region? Well generally their population is 1/3 to 1/4 of the total country, so if it follows population, one might expect four to six List MPs getting through from Northern.

So at this stage (and Labour has yet to combine the regional lists into a national list) Jones, Gosche, Choudary and Fenton look fairly safe, while Heroera and Wall are marginal, and the chances of a non MP making it in is remote on current numbers.

Choudary, Fenton and Heroera are not exactly high flyers. Despite Clark’s talk of more new blood needed, candidates like Phil Twyford look unlikely to make it in.

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30 Responses to “Labour’s Northern List”

  1. Mike S (229 comments) says:

    Tizard at 6? Must be a reward for her incredible hard work.

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  2. poneke (280 comments) says:

    Why is Jordan not on that list? Was he selected after it was prepared, perhaps?

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  3. Monty (980 comments) says:

    At first I wondered where Cullen was – but then realise this is the Northern Ward – where do we see the whole list and then the confirmation that Cullen is going to retire (or do we wait for the election) and once they are decimated and in opposition do we then see a whole raft of resignations (on top of the evictions after the election).

    And that useless bag of lard Judith Tizard – she will get the eviction notice during the election.

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  4. clintheine (1,571 comments) says:

    Current polling has freaked them out, hence the safe positions for that bunch. I look forward to Jordans blog spinning this into a good situation for him.

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  5. David Baigent (172 comments) says:

    As the tide goes out for a Party you can see how the “List placings” are the poison in the MMP system.

    Good luck to all those Members of all Parties that are contesting an Electorate Seat. They are the ones who have personal value and mana and are to be cherished regardless of which Party they represent.

    The List members with few exceptions need to examine the reason for their placings.

    If MMP is to survive then the maximum number of List placings should be restricted considerably as the List vote is a “Pig Pen”.

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  6. David Farrar (1,902 comments) says:

    I understand the full list actually goes down to No 35, and other candidates are listed below No 20. Not sure who got what rank below No 20, but none of them are winnable so doesn’t really matter much.

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  7. MikeE (555 comments) says:

    Wait – so sutton could enter parliament on the list?

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  8. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    Good luck to all those Members of all Parties that are contesting an Electorate Seat. They are the ones who have personal value and mana and are to be cherished regardless of which Party they represent.

    Including Klarke?

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  9. Brian Smaller (4,026 comments) says:

    Tizard at 6? I am more amazed that Choudrey is at 3. What has that waste of space done for anyone?

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  10. PhilBest (5,125 comments) says:

    Choudhary is the “token Muslim” in a “multicultural” cabinet. If they could find a Christian who would vote against his beliefs on stuff like prostitution, they might tolerate a “token Christian” in the cabinet too, one day………..

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  11. BlairM (2,365 comments) says:

    It’s quite possible that Jordan is not on the list because Hunua is not included in the Labour Party’s Northern Region.

    Mike – the sooner Sutton gets into parliament, the better. She’s our Manchurian candidate ;o)

    [DPF: I understand Jordan is on the list, but not on the portion published. Same with Conor Roberts.]

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  12. Whaleoil (767 comments) says:

    Tizard won’t win her seat, she is never there and Nikki Kaye will clean her clock

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  13. Whaleoil (767 comments) says:

    Would that be Jordan Carter absentee candidate for Hunua?

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  14. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    They should open their list up to democratic ranking by the membership, as the Greens do. That way deadwood like Tizard would be gone by lunchtime (or at least by evening wine and cheese). Why won’t Labour (or National, for that matter) do this?

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  15. Whaleoil (767 comments) says:

    Toad, because Labour is deeply undemocratic. The Greens are perhaps the most democratic, followed by National, United Future then Labour and Winston First last because it is largely run as a dictatorship.

    Not sure about the Maori Party.

    Labour is run out of Wellington, the people in the electorate only have 1 vote out of 7, all the rest are HQ or HQ wannabes.

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  16. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    Choudhary is the “token Muslim” in a “multicultural” cabinet. If they could find a Christian who would vote against his beliefs on stuff like prostitution, they might tolerate a “token Christian” in the cabinet too, one day……….

    Like Anderton, you mean?

    And Choudhary isn’t in Cabinet.

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  17. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    The Greens are perhaps the most democratic

    Whaleoil, WTF? Is this the same Green Party that banned women from taking part in its most recent leadership election?

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  18. george (388 comments) says:

    What’s the bet that National will do exactly the same?

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  19. James W (271 comments) says:

    Actually Whale, I think Act is most democratic after the Greens. There are two polls, one at a regional level, then one for the whole list. As with the Greens, the Board can then shift people around if necessary.

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  20. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    pushmepullu said: Is this the same Green Party that banned women from taking part in its most recent leadership election?

    Don’t know where you got that misinformation from, pushmepullu, but i wouldn’t rely on that source in future if I were you. At its most recent leadership election (and there is one at every Annual Conference, elected by electorate delegates, not MPs) both the Male and Female Co-leadership positions were elected to. And I seem to recall Jeanette Fitzsimons being re-elected unopposed.

    James W – there is very little ability for the Green list to be shifted around after the membership vote – only by one or two positions on the ranking and only to achieve better gender, ethnic or regional balance.

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  21. Ronald (4 comments) says:

    Labour has a democratically elected moderating committee consisting of regional and sector representation that puts all the regional lists together and may rearrange the order. For example, Shane Jones was ranked after the MPs at the Northern List Conference 3 years ago but was promoted in amongst them at the moderating committee.

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  22. Nicholas O'Kane (168 comments) says:

    Any indication of when the other regional lists will come out? Also, does National have similar regional lists?

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  23. Captain Crab (351 comments) says:

    toad,
    “There is very little ability for the Green list to be shifted around after the membership vote”
    Your comments seem to fly in the face of the manouvering to get Russel Norman into Parliament.
    Or is it democratic until we decide otherwise for the “good of the party”. I guess some of your candidates are more equal than others…

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  24. Southern Raider (1,831 comments) says:

    In a company having someone on the Board of Directors that doesn’t even show up for meetings would be call corruption.

    In Labours case with Judith its called keeping it in the family.

    I would be embarrased to be in the Auckland Central electorate.

    The MSM needs to ask Klarke what Judith has done to deserve that list ranking. Maybe shes good with her tongue?

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  25. freethinker (694 comments) says:

    Southern Raider
    If Tizzard is good with her tongue its certainly not used in the house – well not the Beehive anyway!

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  26. Duxton (657 comments) says:

    “Somewhat disappointing to see they are once again protecting all their incumbent MPs by ranking them ahead of any newcomers, no matter how talented.”

    That is the funniest thing you have ever written, David. Surely you aren’t suggesting that any of Labour’s newcomers have talent?

    Then again, perhaps you are saying that they are more talented than the current pack of scumbags. Not only would this be possible, it could also be achieved by a newcomer with little or no talent themselves.

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  27. Jum (137 comments) says:

    southern raider and freethinker

    still vicious little freaks, I see. Your comments encourage everyone with a vision of a society worth having to vote for Labour, or Greens, or NZ First. It’s good to check out this site. It gives me an idea of what constitutes the National party. It’s the Brothers Grim in drag.

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  28. Jum (137 comments) says:

    southern raider and freethinker

    still vicious little freaks I see.

    Anyone with a vision of a society worth having will rush off to vote for Labour after reading your posts. Great example of National’s followers. The Brothers Grim in drag.

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  29. JohnMacc (60 comments) says:

    That’s certainly a bit of a tragic list for the Northern region, but DPF’s stretching things to project this across all 5 labour regions. At least around Wellington they’ve got what counts for “new blood” in the labour party standing in winnable electorates. Grant Robertson in Wgtn Central and Chippy Hipkins in Rimutaka – former and current PM’s office staff “annointed” to take over open electorates. Likewise in the South Island in Chch and Dunedin South, etc. So there will be some new faces in the downsized Labour caucus even if the list is stacked with incumbents.

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  30. redbus (106 comments) says:

    Any indication of when the other regional lists will come out?
    – Regional list results are not open to the media or public due to being preliminary. To view these conferences you have to be a paid member of the party, to vote, you need to be a representative delegate of your Labour Electorate Council etc. You will not see another regional list result unless it is leaked to you, you will, however, see the national Labour list when it is compiled.

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