Tim Donoghue at the Dom Post has got hold of Labour’s list rankings for the Northern Region. Somewhat disappointing to see they are once again protecting all their incumbent MPs by ranking them ahead of any newcomers, no matter how talented. But even that may see some List MPs fall away.
The average of the polls have Labour getting 42 seats. They currently have 31 electorate seats and it is not unreasonable to assume they will lose two Maori seats and five general electorate seats so assume 24 electorates and 18 List MPs. Where I note likely to win a seat, this is not a prediction or a concession. It is an assumption for this scenario. Things can and will change in a campaign.
Now let us look at their Northern List:
- 1. Helen Clark* -likely to win seat
- 2. Phil Goff* – likely to win seat
- 3. Chris Carter* – likely to win seat
- 4. David Cunliffe* – likely to win seat
- 5. Shane Jones* – 1st list spot
- 6. Judith Tizard* – likely to win seat
- 7. Mark Gosche* – 2nd list spot
- 8. Lynne Pillay* – likely to win seat
- 9. Ashraf Choudhary* – 3rd list spot
- 10. Darien Fenton* – 4th list spot
- 11. Dave Hereora* – 5th list spot
- 12. Louisa Wall* – 6th list spot
- 13. Sua William Sio – likely to win seat
- 14. Raymond Huo – 7th list spot
- 15. Phil Twyford – 8th list spot
- 16. Hamish McCracken – 9th list spot
- 17. Carmel Sepulone – 10th list spot
- 18. Kelvin Davis – 11th list spot
- 19. Michael Wood – 12th list spot
- 20. Kate Sutton – 13th list spot
Now how many winnable list places would there be in Northern Region? Well generally their population is 1/3 to 1/4 of the total country, so if it follows population, one might expect four to six List MPs getting through from Northern.
So at this stage (and Labour has yet to combine the regional lists into a national list) Jones, Gosche, Choudary and Fenton look fairly safe, while Heroera and Wall are marginal, and the chances of a non MP making it in is remote on current numbers.
Choudary, Fenton and Heroera are not exactly high flyers. Despite Clark’s talk of more new blood needed, candidates like Phil Twyford look unlikely to make it in.