Maori voters supporting National

Today’s Fairfax poll is fascinating – now for the main result which is barely changed from May (27% gap closes to 24% gap), but the ethnic breakdown.

Now the number of respondents will be very small (around 15% of 1,100 respondents would be around 165 respondents only) but even with that it is unprecedented that Labour is almost in third place with voters. They have on 39%, Maori Party on 22% and Labour also on 22%. Labour ir normally way way ahead of amongst Maori voters.

A sample of 165 has a margin of error of 7.8%. Large, but when the parties have a 17% gap, still arguably significant enough to say National leads amongst Maori voters.

I have just calculated the probablity that on those results National is in fact ahead of Labour amongst Maori voters, and it is 99.79%. So that certainly is significant.

It would be interesting to know how it differs between Maori on the general roll and on the Maori roll.

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