Further to my blog earlier this morning, the kind people at Marae have sent me a breakdown of some of their poll results, by roll. This allows an easier comparison to election results.
First the party vote results for the 700 respondents on the Maori roll (compared to actual election results):
That is a decimation for Labour. Their party vote has more than halved amongst Maori on the Maori roll. Some of that will be losing Clark.
Then the party vote results for the 300 Maori respondents on the General roll:
- National 42%
- Labour 33%
- Maori Party 16%
- Greens 6%
- NZ First 3%
Now this is unprecedented as far as I know – National to be outpolling Labour amongst Maori voters on the general roll.
The 2008 data has not yet been published but the NZ election study in 2005 had Maori on the general roll supporting Labour at 54%, and National at 17%.
So from the 2005 election, Labour has gone from 37% ahead of National amongst Maori on the general roll, to 9% behind.
And then if we take the overall sample of all Maori (both rolls) we have:
- Maori Party 48% (+27% from 2005)
- Labour 26% (-28%)
- National 20% (+11%)
- Greens 3% (-2%)
- NZ First 2% (-7%)
Again I can’t compare to 2008 as there is no public poll data about how Maori on the general roll voted. But the combined effect is clear – Labour at half the level they were in 2005, and both National and Maori Party at around double where they were.
Also interesting to see the breakdown by roll for John Key. He gets 26% Preferred PM amongst Maori roll respondents and 39% amongst Maori on the general roll. Goff is at 4% on Maori roll and 5% General roll.
In terms of approval of Key’s performance as PM, there is little variation. Maori on the Maori roll give him a net approval (yes over no) of 17% and Maori on the General roll a net approval of 24%.
I have not yet viewed the episode myself, but I think John Key will be very proud of such historic results, despite being a “white motherfucker” 🙂