Scoop’s predictions

have done a very long and superb article focusing on the election and individual electorates including of  who will win what electorate. Also some insights into how Clark will keep Goff from becoming Leader:

Publicly and within the media, Phil Goff is seen as Helen Clark’s most likely successor.

Clearly he has prime ministerial and leadership qualities. Politically, he’s savvy. He’s young enough to progress the country forward to a new level. He is more of a pragmatist than most National MPs, but sounder on human rights and justice. Once free to display to the public the leadership talents that he currently keeps clothed, Phil Goff would likely counter the populist lures of National’s leader John Key. Surely, Labourites would fall in behind to assure a chance at challenging National’s rise – albeit post-election and after Helen Clark…

But the factional whispers talk of a different future for Labour. Sources suggest earlier this year the feminists and unionists forged a pact. Scenarios were shaped. The rainbow block was pulled in close. The word was: Helen Clark would be secure until she chose to leave – irrespective of whether Labour was in government or opposition. Seems fair and only right considering the talent she offers.

But a plan was sprung.

First off, the unionists moved to have Mark Gosche become Labour Party president after Mike Williams departs after the election. After-Clark, the unionists and feminists and the rainbows will move to block the Goff-camp from taking leadership. They will shuffle David Cunliffe as a contender. The feminists move Maryan Street forward as a contender for deputy leadership. Ruth Dyson and Street will be the powerbrokers and the unionists will want to fast-track Andrew Little into parliament and then through the ranks. Phil Twyford would be a front runner for the Mt Albert electorate – again should Helen Clark eventually step down.

Read the full thing, but this is the summary of their predictions. Seat changes are bolded:

  • Northland: National holds Far North, Whangarei and Rodney
  • West Auckland: Key holds Helensville. Carter and Cunliffe hold Te Atatu and New Lynn. Waitkaere to be close with Pillay holding on with under 1,000
  • North Shore: National holds East Coast Bays, North Shore and Northcote whose majority will be at least 4,000
  • Auckland City: Clark holds Mt Albert easily. Goff holds Mt Roskill by around 4,000. Peachey holds Tamaki by 10,000 or more. Hide to retain Epsom. They predict Nikki Kaye to win Auckland Central by 2,000 votes. Also Pesata Sam Lotu-Inga to win Maungakiekie by 1,500 votes.
  • South Auckland: Labour holds Mangere, Manurewa and Manukau East – with Field losing by a large number in Mangere, Hawkins by 4,000 and Robertson by his largest ever majority. Williamson to win Pakuranga and Pansy Wong to win Botany with over 60% of the vote. Collins to win Papakura even though it should be a Labour seat. Hutchison to win Port Waikato
  • Waikato: Ardern to hold Taranaki-King Country. Tisch to win Waikato by 10,000 or more. Goudie to hold Coromandel. Hamilton West too close to call between Gallagher and Macindoe.  Hamilton East to return Bennett by 5,000 or more. Louise Upston to win Taupo. Simon Bridges to beat Winston Peters by at least 3,000. Ryall to hold Bay of Plenty by 12,000. Tolley to hold East Coast by 6,000. In Rotorua Todd McClay to win by 3,000 votes.
  • Central North Island: In New Plymouth Duynhoven will hold on but result may be closer than one would expect. Borrows to retain Whanganui by 5,000 votes. Iain Lees-Galloway to hold Palmerston North for Labour. Nathan Guy to beat Darren Hughes in Otaki. In Napier Tremain to win with Labour distant second. Foss to extend his majority in Tukituki. Hayes to extend majority also in Wairarapa. Power to increase majority by 20% in Rangitikei.
  • Wellington: Labour to retain Rongotai, Wellington Central, Mana, Hutt South and Rimutaka.  Dunne to hold Ohariu.
  • South Island: National to hold Kaikoura, Nelson, Selwyn, Rangitata, Waitaki, Clutha-Southland and Invercargill. West Coast-Tasman very close but O’Connor with a slim lead.  In Christchurch Labour holds Port Hills and Christchurch East easily. Brownlee romps home in Ilam and Anderton rettains Wigram for life. In Waimakariri they predict Cosgrove will hold off Wilkinson – but only by a whisker. For Christchurch Central they say it is too close to call but suggest Burns comes through if voters are not too parochial. Hodgson and Curran to win Dunedin North and South respectively.
  • Maori Seats: No predictions, just reported poll results

I can’t comment in detail on what seats I think will change hands but will say there isn’t too much I disagree with Scoop on – however I do certainly differ in three or four seats, so will be interesting to see.

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