Scoop’s predictions

November 4th, 2008 at 7:35 am by David Farrar

have done a very long and superb article focusing on the election and individual electorates including of  who will win what electorate. Also some insights into how Clark will keep Goff from becoming Leader:

Publicly and within the media, Phil Goff is seen as Helen Clark’s most likely successor.

Clearly he has prime ministerial and leadership qualities. Politically, he’s savvy. He’s young enough to progress the country forward to a new level. He is more of a pragmatist than most National MPs, but sounder on human rights and justice. Once free to display to the public the leadership talents that he currently keeps clothed, Phil Goff would likely counter the populist lures of National’s leader John Key. Surely, Labourites would fall in behind to assure a chance at challenging National’s rise – albeit post-election and after Helen Clark…

But the factional whispers talk of a different future for Labour. Sources suggest earlier this year the feminists and unionists forged a pact. Scenarios were shaped. The rainbow block was pulled in close. The word was: Helen Clark would be secure until she chose to leave – irrespective of whether Labour was in government or opposition. Seems fair and only right considering the talent she offers.

But a plan was sprung.

First off, the unionists moved to have Mark Gosche become Labour Party president after Mike Williams departs after the election. After-Clark, the unionists and feminists and the rainbows will move to block the Goff-camp from taking leadership. They will shuffle David Cunliffe as a contender. The feminists move Maryan Street forward as a contender for deputy leadership. Ruth Dyson and Street will be the powerbrokers and the unionists will want to fast-track Andrew Little into parliament and then through the ranks. Phil Twyford would be a front runner for the Mt Albert electorate – again should Helen Clark eventually step down.

Read the full thing, but this is the summary of their predictions. Seat changes are bolded:

  • Northland: National holds Far North, Whangarei and Rodney
  • West Auckland: Key holds Helensville. Carter and Cunliffe hold Te Atatu and New Lynn. Waitkaere to be close with Pillay holding on with under 1,000
  • North Shore: National holds East Coast Bays, North Shore and Northcote whose majority will be at least 4,000
  • Auckland City: Clark holds Mt Albert easily. Goff holds Mt Roskill by around 4,000. Peachey holds Tamaki by 10,000 or more. Hide to retain Epsom. They predict Nikki Kaye to win Auckland Central by 2,000 votes. Also Pesata Sam Lotu-Inga to win Maungakiekie by 1,500 votes.
  • South Auckland: Labour holds Mangere, Manurewa and Manukau East – with Field losing by a large number in Mangere, Hawkins by 4,000 and Robertson by his largest ever majority. Williamson to win Pakuranga and Pansy Wong to win Botany with over 60% of the vote. Collins to win Papakura even though it should be a Labour seat. Hutchison to win Port Waikato
  • Waikato: Ardern to hold Taranaki-King Country. Tisch to win Waikato by 10,000 or more. Goudie to hold Coromandel. Hamilton West too close to call between Gallagher and Macindoe.  Hamilton East to return Bennett by 5,000 or more. Louise Upston to win Taupo. Simon Bridges to beat Winston Peters by at least 3,000. Ryall to hold Bay of Plenty by 12,000. Tolley to hold East Coast by 6,000. In Rotorua Todd McClay to win by 3,000 votes.
  • Central North Island: In New Plymouth Duynhoven will hold on but result may be closer than one would expect. Borrows to retain Whanganui by 5,000 votes. Iain Lees-Galloway to hold Palmerston North for Labour. Nathan Guy to beat Darren Hughes in Otaki. In Napier Tremain to win with Labour distant second. Foss to extend his majority in Tukituki. Hayes to extend majority also in Wairarapa. Power to increase majority by 20% in Rangitikei.
  • Wellington: Labour to retain Rongotai, Wellington Central, Mana, Hutt South and Rimutaka.  Dunne to hold Ohariu.
  • South Island: National to hold Kaikoura, Nelson, Selwyn, Rangitata, Waitaki, Clutha-Southland and Invercargill. West Coast-Tasman very close but O’Connor with a slim lead.  In Christchurch Labour holds Port Hills and Christchurch East easily. Brownlee romps home in Ilam and Anderton rettains Wigram for life. In Waimakariri they predict Cosgrove will hold off Wilkinson – but only by a whisker. For Christchurch Central they say it is too close to call but suggest Burns comes through if voters are not too parochial. Hodgson and Curran to win Dunedin North and South respectively.
  • Maori Seats: No predictions, just reported poll results

I can’t comment in detail on what seats I think will change hands but will say there isn’t too much I disagree with Scoop on – however I do certainly differ in three or four seats, so will be interesting to see.

Tags: , ,

28 Responses to “Scoop’s predictions”

  1. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,820 comments) says:

    Good to see they predict a Nikki Kaye win in Auckland Central by 2,000 votes.

    It would be even better if Judith Tizard doesn’t make it back into parliament.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. Ross Nixon (612 comments) says:

    No. Palmerston North will change to National, assuming the local poll putting them 3% ahead about a week ago was accurate.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Lindsay Addie (1,189 comments) says:

    Manning’s article is superb and worth reading as DPF notes.

    Must mention my own electorate Chch Central which Manning notes is a close. Wagner from National is well known in Chch and with an outsider picked by Labour, plus add in the boundary changes from 2005 this seat could go National if the swing is big on election night.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. getstaffed (9,189 comments) says:

    After-Clark, the unionists and feminists and the rainbows will move to block the Goff-camp from taking leadership

    So a bunch of Stalinist control-freaks and social agenda-brandishing weirdo’s, together with worships at the alter of environmental religion, is what Labour would have move NZ forward?!? No thanks.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    Great, the minority freaks scramble to hold onto their lollies once Grandma Clark wheels off to the rest home.

    Watch Goff take half the Labour Party with him to form New Labour and ally himself towards the centre with Key. Wouldn’t that be a fucking laugh eh Hulun.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Lindsay Addie (1,189 comments) says:

    I hope the old Clark faction post election gets behind Cunnliffe.

    I want that arrogant prick to be Labour leader for yonks!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. WhichOnesPink (281 comments) says:

    Wellington central will go to a recount. Robertson is missing in action. Greens are voting green in electorate as well as list.

    ACT are directing votes to Franks (several thousand).

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    Franks will ROMP home in Wellington Central… nobody but Labour party members and bureaucrats who are Labour in all but formal membership will support Robertson, who seems to believe he deserves to be elected jus because he is gay… YEAH RIGHT

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. senzafine (455 comments) says:

    Otaki will as always, be close. But hopefully this time around Guy CAN take it home and wipe that goofy smile off hughes face.

    As for Mana, I think parata has a chance.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. NeillR (350 comments) says:

    I’ve been hearing whispers that Field will win Mangere. Time will tell, but i’m surprised that Labour’s spending so much time in South Auckland this week when that constituency should be taken as read.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    NeillR – interesting they (labour) are trying to brush off the Inga and Iceman play.

    Further fragmentation of the Labour vote can only be good for Field.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. PhilBest (5,120 comments) says:

    “…..First off, the unionists moved to have Mark Gosche become Labour Party president after Mike Williams departs after the election. After-Clark, the unionists and feminists and the rainbows will move to block the Goff-camp from taking leadership. They will shuffle David Cunliffe as a contender. The feminists move Maryan Street forward as a contender for deputy leadership. Ruth Dyson and Street will be the powerbrokers and the unionists will want to fast-track Andrew Little into parliament and then through the ranks. Phil Twyford would be a front runner for the Mt Albert electorate – again should Helen Clark eventually step down….”

    GOOD. Labour digs themselves in to long term electoral irrelevance. Time for Mike Moore and John Tamihere and Phil Goff and Damien O’Conner and Clayton Cosgrove and Paul Swain and a few others to form a “Real Labour” Party restoring its honest workingman and Catholic roots. Now if a few Bishops would please get plotting, you can’t keep selling your souls to the party of abortions and gay rights forever. The Pope is not happy.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    Phil Goff? The guy who held hands with Yassir Arafat? That is NOT what the country needs. That is not what the honest worker needs.

    The honest workingman has NEVER been represented by Labour. They are the part of the unemployed, the shiftless bludger, the unionist who spends more time picketing than actually picking up his tools.

    The average kiwi bloke, the carpenter, freezing worker, coal miner, sheep shearer, has ALWAYS gone for National and because he has a good head of sense on his shoulder, he always will.

    This is why Labour has it in for the kiwi bloke, they want to replace him with a unionised parasite or better still a recent immigrant who can’t even use the toilet properly. That is their plan for a permanent Labour majority.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. davidp (3,558 comments) says:

    I’ve seen Stephen Franks a couple of times out and about in Wellington Central. I’ve also spotted Heather Roy. Both National and the Greens have had plenty of (mostly) young people on the streets handing out election material.

    But the Labour candidate? I’ve never seen him. I have no idea what he even looks like. And I’ve never seen any of his supporters. Are Labour campaigning by sitting at home in front of their televisions?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. bobux (349 comments) says:

    davidp has a point. I have no idea what sort of campaign Grant Robertson has been running, but there has been no visible trace of it on the streets. I still think it is a big ask for Franks to win Wellington Central, but he is certainly putting in a huge effort.

    I drove from Palmerston North to Wellington a week ago, and was staggered by the absence of Labour signage until reaching Mana. Even there, it was a 50/50 split with National. Perhaps all their electoral funding has gone to Mike Williams’ travel budget?

    For what its worth, Winnie had three signs outside a single house adjoining a marae in Horowhenua, and I saw one farm with an Act sign.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. senzafine (455 comments) says:

    I saw robertson and his groupies on tinakori road last week. They tried to get a honk out of me but all they got was the bird.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. glubbster (352 comments) says:

    I see National winning 39 seats, Labour 22 (including Nanaia Mahuta’s Maori Seat), Maori Party 6, Act 1, United 1, Jim 1.
    Manning’s pre-election electorate analysis is the best I have seen. I differ materially only on the following:
    1) Cosgrove will hold on to Waimakariri by a surprisingly comfortable margin.
    2) I see Auchinvole prevailing on the West Coast by a narrow margin.
    3) The Palmerston North contest will be much closer – not easy to call but if I had to I would go with Galloway.
    4) I’m calling Macindoe to win Hamilton-West.

    Manning is correct to point out that Chch Central will be very close and an upset here to Natonal would be the biggest electorate boilover since I dont know when.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Chthoniid (2,029 comments) says:

    Phil Goff? The guy who held hands with Yassir Arafat? That is NOT what the country needs. That is not what the honest worker needs.

    Shrug, haven’t we all done things we’re not so proud of now. I took part in the 84 occupation of the French embassy in Wellington during the Beyond Anzus meeting. It was a formative experience seeing the Harawiras, Leadbetters and fellow travellers in action. (shudder).

    Goff has done a respectable job as Trade Minister. And as far as I can tell, hasn’t got involved in the muck the same way that say Mallard or Carter have. Not that my opinions count at all in the labour party of course.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. gatcollie (8 comments) says:

    I think a really big swing to National could put some surprising seats in play this election. Rimutaka, Mana, New Plymouth, Mangere and Wigram could all hypothetically be in play (Mangere obviously for Field rather than Nats). Chch Central is probably the best chance for National to pick up another electorate in Christchurch. Waimakariri is unlikely to change (since Cosgrove is seriously playing down his Labour connection – all his hoardings have no picture of Clark and Labour written in very very small print.). One big surprise could be a swing in Wigram, which has had a massive shift in boundaries. The swing will have to be huge to see the seat change hands, but expect Anderton’s majority to get significantly smaller.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Fisiani (996 comments) says:

    Stephen Franks would win easily in Well Central if Wellingtonians were aware that Grant Robertson wants to put the blood transfusion service at risk due to his sheer bloody minded insistence on gay “rights”.
    The Blood transfusion service has a policy of not accepting blood from people who have lived in Britain and eaten meat in the 1970′s This is because they have a slight risk of inadvertently transmitting BSE in donated blood. This is not discrimination against Brits. It is an appropriate scientific risk evaluation.
    The Blood transfusion service and the Aids Foundation also agree with the policy that there has to be a 5 year window of gays abstaining from anal intercourse to allow blood transfusion. This is a sensible policy to ensure blood transfusion safety. Grant Robertson thinks and says that this is blatant discrimination against gays. Grant Robertson is a danger to all Kiwis.
    He is also responsible for dreaming up and pushing interest free loans to cripple students with ten billion dollars of debt.
    He is also deeply responsible , when working in Helen Clarks office for pushing the pledge card rort of $800,000 of taxpayers money and is proud of his theft.
    Stephen Franks deserves to represent Wellington not just because Grant Robertson certainly does not.
    Stephen Franks is the best candidate by far.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. pushmepullu (686 comments) says:

    Wellingtonians’ know well Grant Robertson’s determination to trample on the rights of the common man to achieve the special status he and his fellow homosexuals desire. This is why they will reject him soundly.

    Goff has done a respectable job as Trade Minister

    Name one achievement other than the ‘free’ trade agreement with China that sees New Zealand grovelling accepting Chinese travellers into this country in violation of our immigration laws and sovereignty in the first forced population transfer since World War II?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Brian Smaller (4,028 comments) says:

    “The Blood transfusion service has a policy of not accepting blood from people who have lived in Britain and eaten meat in the 1970’s”

    Not just the 70s. It covers about a fifteen year period that caught me out as I was living there three years during 88-90. Of course, it is valid discrimination. Helen ate some beef at a function at New Zealand House and look at her now – a Mad Cow.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. bobux (349 comments) says:

    A great line in the South Auckland analysis

    “Douglas won’t win, but he provides more excitement and more of a contest than Labour’s Jordan Carter, who (as the party expected) is unlikely to make any kind of impact, at all.”

    Ouch.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. Lee (627 comments) says:

    “Grant Robertson thinks and says that this is blatant discrimination against gays.”

    GOOD.

    The idea that peoples lives should be put at risk because of the moral stupidity and self-centred narcisisim of people like Robertson is just sick.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. llew (1,533 comments) says:

    I saw robertson and his groupies on tinakori road last week. They tried to get a honk out of me but all they got was the bird.

    Ditto, but Upland Rd last night. The Franks-mobile drove past in the other direction (to me). Didn’t honk.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. llew (1,533 comments) says:

    For what its worth, Winnie had three signs outside a single house adjoining a marae in Horowhenua, and I saw one farm with an Act sign.

    I’ve only seen one NZ 1st sign anywhere – it’s beside the Otaki Racecourse, just above the storm water drain… I feel there’s symbolism afoot.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. glubbster (352 comments) says:

    I think gatcollie is rather hopeful!
    Labour are virtual certainties in Mana & Mangere and Jim is in Wigram. The fact that Jim wins by a smaller margin is neither here nor there as he remains comfortable. These are Party Vote electorates!
    Even if National trends upwards to 50% (which I doubt), Rimutaka will still go to Labour.
    New Plymouth is similar to Waimakariri. Strong Labour MP. But these seats are worthy of an electorate (and PV) campaign from National but it will probably prove unsuccessful.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. Dazzaman (1,132 comments) says:

    Yes, Otaki (Horowhenua-Kapiti really) will go blue again! Great. My own gauge seems to be that the mood is for change. Although I think most of our problems stem from overbearing District & Regional councils with large rate increases and self-serving spending splurges!

    Back to the national level, the control-freakism & nanny state tendencies of Helen (Labour) seem to be turning many off, especially men, although the die-hards won’t show any interest in change. Surprising amount of young people seem to identify with John Key though.

    And the fact that Hughes is such a “boy” is a real no-no for me, about time he got himself a real job and gave up on smiling like a shmuck in local rag photo ops. Nathan Guy is a farmer, down to earth, sensible and has a bit of real life experience behind him. And the fact he’s from Koputaroa (north of Levin) appeals to all of us northern Otaki constituents which is where the real fight will be fought with Shannon, Foxton & Levin being probably Labour-leaning areas, especially in the towns. The southern part of the electorate would be predominately National-leaning with the possible exception of Otaki township itself and enclaves of lesbians in the KCDC council chambers!! LOL

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.