Dominion Post’s 2009 Predictions

January 1st, 2009 at 5:38 pm by David Farrar

Stuff has the 2009 Dominion Post Predictions:

1: Attempts to reach cross-party accord over the Electoral Finance Act will founder and its replacement will prove a thorn in National’s side as the parliamentary term rolls on.

Not so sure about this. I think there is a limit to what the parties will agree on, but should not be a thorn or National so long as it allows good process. Remember there are two stages to this – the repeal of he EA which will happen early next year and the passing of a new law to replace it, which probably won’t happen until late 2009/2010. In the interim the old Electoral Act will apply but with the transparency provisions around donations inserted into them.

2: Former prime minister Helen Clark will be appointed to an overseas post and quit the House before the end of the year, to be replaced in her seat by Phil Twyford.

Heh I named Twyford at the replacement some weeks ago. They just need to find a solution to the Tizard problem I blogged about.

3: Former finance minister Michael Cullen will be gone from Parliament by lunchtime on Budget day – or soon after.

Yep, that is the timing I would expect.

4: National’s early attempt at reaching out to the unions will quickly fall by the wayside as workers mobilise against plans to extend the 90-day probation law and roll back the Holidays Act.

Well most unions will attack National, regardless o what National does. They are effectively branches of the Labour Party. If the Dom Post is suggesting the 90 day probation period law will be extended this year, then I think they are wrong.

5: Miss Clark’s right-hand woman – H2, or Heather Simpson – will pop up in a surprising new role.

Who knows. Simpson is incredibly capable, and is too young to retire so will do something. However a job where you have to persuade people instead of instruct them could pose a challenge.

6: Annette King will signal her intention to quit Parliament before the next election, making way for a deputy leadership candidate from the Left of the Labour Party.

Also predicted here some time ago.  The question is whether Andrew Little will go for Rongotai or Hutt South. Having said that I do not think King will announce her retirement in 2009. I would expect it more mid 2010.

7: There will be at least two by- elections triggered during the course of the year.

Hmmn ballsy call. Mt Albert is an obvious one. Rongotai may have been a possibility before she became Deputy Leader. Hodgson will be bored, but can’t see him going early. Maybe a National MP becomes an Ambassador?

8: The Reserve Bank will lower interest rates to less than 4 per cent, but the Government will bow to pressure to boost the economy with even more fiscal stimulus than is currently in the pipeline.

Not sure they can afford to. 5% o GDP is at the upper end around the world, and we have a structural deficit. You could only do it if you suspend contributions to the Cullen Fund – that way borrowing would not increase but we would have a greater stimulus.

9: There will be trouble within ACT that will sideswipe the Government as its feisty members agitate against the Government’s economic line.

Fairly easy call. The question is whether it will be constructive criticism, or the other sort.

10: The plan to cap and reduce the number of bureaucrats will create even more bureaucrats.

Ha, except they may be called consultants. Actually I am not as cynical as the Dom Post. I think you will see a signiicant slow down and even maybe a halt to the massive growth in the bureaucracry. Will be an interesting one to watch.

11: National’s poll ratings will stay above 40 per cent despite the economic crisis.

I’m not so sure. Governments tend to get held responsible and it could be a very short honeymoon. But overall I think probably will stay in the 40s, but could have the odd dip below.

12: Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will announce she will stand aside and is likely to be replaced by Metiria Turei.

Yepm the only question is whether it is in 2009 or 2010. I suspect she announces in 2009 and Turei is elected in 2010.

13: A junior minister will have egg on their face within six months, testing Mr Key’s promise to set a high level of accountability.

Almost inevitable. But mere egg on the ace is not a sackable offence. It depends on how long the egg boils or.

14: Jim Anderton will finally signal an end to his long parliamentary career, putting the future of his Progressive Party in doubt.

I don’t think there is much doubt over its future. Again this may be a 2010 announcement though.

15: Labour will be a very strong opposition, with poll ratings in the high 30s by year’s end.

Yep I have said they will be strong. And they got 34% so getting high 30s should not be hard. But will votes come from Greens or National?

16: Lockwood Smith will prove to be a flexible and able speaker, promoting Parliament’s traditions without too many histrionics . . . or the need to bellow “Order!” as loudly as his predecessor.

I hope so, and so far has looked good in the job. Peters gone helps.

17: Labour’s ousted West Coast MP Damien O’Connor will be back – if we wants to be – but those occupying the next few slots on the list will come under considerable pressure to step aside, in the interests of renewal, if more replacement MPs are needed.

Dead right. Again I said this a few weeks ago. After Damien they have a series of undesirables on the list. One or two may step aside, but will all of them?

18: The Maori Party will find itself voting against the Government far more than it votes for it, especially on law and order and social issues, leading to some soul- searching among its MPs.

I’m not sure it will. I think it will vote for more Government bills than against. But certainly some issues will test their MPs.

19: The emissions trading scheme will survive, and with few changes.

Probably the very changes indicated in National’s manifesto.

20: Finance Minister Bill English will embrace Labour spokesman David Cunliffe’s offer of a bipartisan approach to the world economic meltdown. Yes, we are joking.

Heh, only if they can agree to job share :-)

As always, will be good to score in a year’s time.

Tags: ,

18 Responses to “Dominion Post’s 2009 Predictions”

  1. ophiuchus (84 comments) says:

    In other words, there is low hopes for the National governments success, This screams “Labour will win next time”

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    19: The emissions trading scheme will survive, and with few changes.

    If National is silly enough to screw over its one true coalition partner then it will get what it deserves in 2011 when it comes to negotiating the next government.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. JC (948 comments) says:

    “Maybe a National MP becomes an Ambassador?”

    McCully to Italy?

    He’ll set up shop in Sicily.

    JC

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Anthony (768 comments) says:

    I’m pretty much in agreement with DPF – and I think there will be a concerted effort to reduce govt department HO staff.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. mickysavage (778 comments) says:

    How about these for predictions:

    1. National will repeal the EFA and will allow the use of trusts and unregulated third party advertisements such as the Exclusive Bretheren advertisements that we saw in 2005.
    2. Aunty Helen will be appointed to a senior overseas role. Talent cannot be held down.
    3. Michael Cullen will hang around for the full term. He is enjoying himself far too much mocking National and pointing out their inadequacies.
    4. National has completely blown any chance of a rapport with the unions. The 90 day fire at will bill pushed under urgency has made the unions realise that National has no interest in the welfare of workers.
    5. H2 will be fine. Talent rises to the top.
    6. Act will continue to believe in strange things and will continue to be irrelevant to 95% of the population.
    7. National’s poll support will plunge when people realise they are not labour lite.
    8. Paula Bennett and Stephen Joyce will stuff up big time.
    9. The progressives will fold into Labour.
    10. David Cunliffe will show that he is more than the equal of Bill English.

    Happy new year!!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    mickysavage (155) Vote: 0 4 Says:

    January 1st, 2009 at 8:23 pm
    How about these for predictions:

    And still you continue with your lies and spin.

    You have no chance because your lies have been found out.

    Cullen the Fiscal Fool. H2 the Beast in a skirt. H1 talented, but as Paul Henry stated, “On the Cusp Of Evil”

    You are all deluded and useless!

    Lefty Plonker. Get a proper cause.

    Go and hug Hamas. They might use you as a human shield if we are lucky, or throw you off a tall building for not being a murdering Islamic Radical

    You are sad and pathetic!!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. mickysavage (778 comments) says:

    GM (are you due for a bailout?)

    They are predictions. They cannot be lies now, and if they do not pan out then they are inaccurate predictions rather than lies.

    Cullen was the best MF the country has had. H1 and H2 are talented beyond anything the right wing have. Review things in 5 years time and then tell me if this is not true.

    Why is it that left blogs debate and throw ideas around and right wing blogs have people that engage in aggressive and unnecessary personal attacks?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. ZenTiger (375 comments) says:

    Why is it that left blogs debate and throw ideas around and right wing blogs have people that engage in aggressive and unnecessary personal attacks?

    You need to get out more.

    Cullen was the best MF the country has had.

    Yikes. Must you call him that?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. mickysavage (778 comments) says:

    ZenTiger

    I should have said Minister of Finance …

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    No 1. Bullshit, if National has any fair bones in it’s body it will start again, with voter input.
    No 2. Screw Helen, let her do her OE on her own wits.
    No 3. Don’t let him get away so easy, keep the bastard on so he can roll in the crap that he fostered on the rest of us.
    No 4. Pigs arse. The fucking unions will be shitting their pants in another few months, they should spend their time licking their employers arse’s.
    No 5. Heather will open a dildo shop
    No 6. Cool
    No 7.Why, The right is in power would the disease socialist suckholes hold an election, doubt it.
    No 8. Forget interest rates, it won’t help, we are way pass that.
    No 9. I hope so.
    No 10. Sorry to say but the day of the shinny arse is coming to a draw. Bit hard to suck blood out of a stone, yeah!!!
    No 11. Bloody oath, the people have to follow someone that offers hope, not someone that pushes us further into the shit.
    No 12. Yes please.She hasn’t saved the world but her naive view of the world will only sink us further into the ( refer 11 )
    No 13. Probably but whats wrong with egg on your face, fuck who’s perfect.
    No 14. I hope he has a dacha by some lake.
    No 15. Ha ha ha ha ha ha surly you jest.
    No 16. As long as he gets the bastards to “address the question”.
    No 17. Want a bet?
    No 18. What a dilema, the Maori party haven’t figured what they stand for now and I very much doubt things are going to chance
    No 19. This is an easy one. PIGSARSE. Any bullshit concerning AGW will not matter a tin of shit in a few months.
    No 20. Yes we are joking, I would bloody hope so.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    MF

    Yes Cullen is a Mother Fucker!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. stephen (3,981 comments) says:

    I’m not sure it will. I think it will vote for more Government bills than against. But certainly some issues will test their MPs.

    I’d probably have to go with The Dom based on the work of the guys at ‘They Work for You’.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. GPT1 (2,020 comments) says:

    Wigram for by-election

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    DPF, I think your “f” key is sticking

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. Lee C (2,720 comments) says:

    The Dom-Post are intellectual lightweights. These are the proper predictions of this year:
    http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/
    Lee – MWT

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Straight Shooter (135 comments) says:

    I spotted a curious comment on the stuff.co.nz website:

    The media will gain more spotlight than the politicians do as:

    1. More press gallery journalists take up ministerial positions;
    2. New ambitious journalists will take their places in the press gallery;
    3. Senior press gallery figures will hog the limelight from junior journos who do the donkey work;
    4. Journalists will leak dirt on fellow journalists in order to climb the ladder;
    5. More often than not, the dirt will claim unintended victims; and
    6. The leaked material will backfire on the leaker.

    I wonder whether another Tony Veitch is going to happen (I still think Saville was behind that so close to the Olympics).

    With so many by-elections coming up, the timing is right for someone to push someone out of the way. Who’s it gonna be?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. Michael E (251 comments) says:

    “Maybe a Nat MP to become an ambassador?”

    I did notice John Hayes (Wairarapa) is sitting on the crossbenches, on the opposition side of the aisle. Next to Allan Peachey (Tamaki).

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Ross Miller (1,618 comments) says:

    For those of you who didn’t follow the link provided by Lee C aka MWT in his/her post here are the predictions simply brilliant, enjoy

    1: National will keep the EFA and widen its scope to restrict Union involvement in politics, for the whole of the parliamentary cycle.

    2: John Key announces that Cullen didn’t leave enough money in the kitty to pay Helen Clark a salary to take up a high-ranking foreign post. Helen Clark subsequently dissolves on national televison after Cunliffe ‘accidentally’ spills a glass of water on her in Parliament.

    3: Former finance minister Michael Cullen will mysteriously disappear one day in April after telling his spouse ‘I’m just going down to Pack And Save for a pack of chewing-gum’. His clothes will be found neatly folded on a park-bench in Napier, by the sea, and a polaroid of him and ‘his niece’ boarding a helicopter bound for Tahiti will surface in The Herald sometime later.

    4: The unions will go on strike in mass protest after it is asserted in ‘The Standard’ that ‘John Key looked at us funny, but then he is jewish (not that we said it first) so how can you tell?’ on Breakfast TV.

    5: Heather Simpson will be put under House arrest and extradited to the Hague for trial by the UN for being ginger. She will be returned within days for being a ‘smug, bossy cow’.

    6: Annette King will emigrate to Australia, and the mean IQ of New Zealand will rise sharply. It will resume normality when she is returned to New Zealand because she attempts to pass off a picture of Scarlett Johansson as her passport likeness.

    7: Winston Peters’ Autobiography will indicate that he knew of Helen Clark’s hydrophobia, and “had ‘a telephone book’ of evidence about it”. Which is why he only drank his whisky neat in her presence. Or out of it. Or in bed. Or for Breakfast. Or since the Reformation.

    8: The Reserve Bank will give a government-sanctioned optional loan of $1500 to every person in New Zealand at 1% interest. Just before the next election as a reward to hard-working kiwis for braving the recession.

    9: Rodney Hide will come out of the closet, and announce is is ‘Now Gay’. The Gay Community will spurn him for “… lacking any discernable fashion sense, so he can’t be one of us.”

    10: Beurocrats will storm the Beehive in an attempt to get the word ‘Beuracrats’ replaced with something easier to spell, in a popular support action initiated by Dyslexics.

    11: National will announce the creation of a single-party state, ‘Like Fiji, but more inclusive…’.

    12: After a worrying disappearance Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons be found in Sue Bradford’s freezer, and Bradford will blame parents who ‘give their kids the bash’ for her apparent suicide. Later it will be proven to have been ‘assisted euthanasia’ and Bradford will be beatified by the Pope, even though she has a uterus.

    13: Phil Goff will be replaced as leader of the Labour Party by ‘Deputy-Cunliffe’. National will be forced to pass the ERA – ‘Ego Restriction Act’ in an attempt to curb Cunliffe’s Walter-Mitty syndrome in which he clearly believes he has been elected as the New PM, and starts telling National how ‘He would run the country, if it were me.’ Again.

    14: After some discussion, it will be decided that the ethical thing to do, is to switch off Jim Anderton’s life-support because it is apparent that all brain activity ceased some time in the early 21st century.

    15: The Labour Party will file for bankruptcy. Moral, that is. The subsequent hearing will clear up some outstanding issues such as why Helen Clark would never go out in the rain, and why Michael Cullen had had planned a tax-payer-funded state funeral for himself in which he would be buried in a golden ‘V-shaped’ coffin. Not because he was giving NZ the fingers, but because it was impossible fo get him to lie straight.

    16: The new Parliamentary Speaker will show objectivity and wisdom. Labour will stage a mass walk-out of Parliament – out of confusion.

    17: In a high-profile press release, Peter Dunne will announce his retirement from politics but no one will notice either the announcement, or any tangible difference to life in general, from while he was in politics.

    18: The Maori Party will replace the Green Party as most cuddly option for middle-class white folk who can’t seem to grow up and face the fact that the world isn’t really like ‘Whale Rider’.

    19: The Emissions Trading Scheme will be renamed ‘The Helen Clark ‘We were Students in the Sixties’ Scheme’ in honour of the amount of depleted THC she personally and very selflessy emitted as a student.

    20: Finance Minister Bill English will confess on national TV that he converted to Judaism ‘Some time ago’ in order to facilitate John Key’s covert plan to subjugate the global economy under an international zionist plot. Unable to actually deal with the fact and tangibly spin it to make it even worse, The Standard will implode, and Anita will join Team Monkey. She and Monkey Boy will solve crimes together, like in Hart to Hart, and the implicit assumption will be that when they are not ‘sleuthing’, they have great sex.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote