Kiwiblog

Well the year is almost up, so unless there is some upset in the next nine days, I can review how I have done on iPredict. I’m number three in terms of net worth, which isn’t bad.

The events that I predicted correctly were:

1. That the Electoral Finance Act would be repealed by May 2009
2. That the price of 91 unleaded petrol would be more than 156c at end of Feb
3. That Helen Clark would leave Parliament in 2009
4. That Michael Cullen would leave Parliament in 2009
5. That Phil Twyford would not be Labour’s Mt Albert candidate
6. That Melissa Lee would be National’s Mt Albert candidate
7. That Labour would win the Mt Albert by-election
8. That the OCR would not increase before July 2009
9. That the anti-smacking referendum would not be cancelled
10. That variable mortgage rates would be less than 6.5% in June 2009
11. That the unemployment rate would not decline in June 2009
12. That Christine Rankin would remain a Families Commissioner past August 2009
13. That there would be no disconnections under S92A before September 2009
14. That the VSM bill would pass its first reading
15. That Obama’s approval rating would not be negative on 4 November 2009
16. That the Government will change the name of Wanganui to allowing both Whanganui and Wanganui to be official

The events that I will have predicted correctly by 1 January 2010 (unless something major happens) are:

1. Winston Peters remains sole Leader of NZ First in 2009
2. Annette King remains Labour Deputy Leader in 2009
3. The Foreshore & Seabed Act is not repealed in 2009
4. Phil Gof remains Labour Leader in 2009
5. A second Minister will not depart in 2009
6. Jim Anderton will not announce his retirement in 2009
7. The National/Maori Party agreement will not terminate in 2009
8. The National/ACT agreement will not terminate in 2009
9. That Robert Mugabe will remain President of Zimbabwe in 2009

So did I get any wrong? Well I like to say no, but the lawyers say yes.

I lost around $250 on my prediction that Frank Bainimarama would remain Interim Pm of Fiji. I maintain that he did remain PM at all times and never surrendered power. iPredict’s lawyers say that he was removed from power by the Supreme Court of Fiji, Again I say they had no ability to remove him (as shown when a day later they were sacked) and that the substance of the stock was about whether he would relinquish power.

Anyway 25-1 isn’t too bad, even though 26-0 would have been better

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009 at 9:00 am and is filed under NZ Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.