Brilliant
May 9th, 2010 at 2:02 pm by David Farrar
No one does headlines like The Sun. The story starts:
A MAN aged 59 was squatting in a luxury home near the Houses of Parliament last night.
The squatter, named as a Mr Gordon Brown from Scotland, was refusing to budge from the Georgian townhouse in Downing Street, central London – denying entry to its rightful tenant.
Hat Tip: Whale Oil
Meanwhile the Telegraph reports Gordon Brown ranted and threatened Nick Clegg during a phone conversation.
While the Guardian reports a Conservative memo on Europe may be a barrier to them doing a deal with the Lib Dems.
For my 2c, I am convinced David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister.
Related posts:
- Brown to go
- UK Conservatives warn against borrowing
- Catholics and girls move up the order
- Mandelson is back
May 9th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
I am not at all convinced he will be. Nick Clegg still has alot of pressure in his Party to take up Labours offer. And the Tories will not deliver on electoral reform, the key issue for LibDems. Gordon Brown should form a Government on the premise of retiring.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
I am convinced David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister
Yes, but for how long? I can’t see a Tory-Lib Dem Government lasting more than about 6 months, particularly with the financial mess Britain is in. The only thing that would give it legs would be if the Tories caved in on electoral reform, but it’ll be a cold day in hell before that happens.
I’m picking another election before the end of the year. It will be interesting to see if the Tories give Cameron another shot after the way he let this one get away.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
In the UK (with reference to wiki)
“Squatters have a right to claim ownership of a dwelling after 12 years of having lived there if no one else claims it, by adverse possession under common law”
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Send in the dogs and tear gas
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
Of course, this could be true even if Gordon Brown is PM for the next six months, or next 2 years =)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
I actually wonder whether it is worth it for Cameron to become Prime Minister at this time. I have no doubt an arrangement with the LibDems could be made, and that it could last a full five years. But I don’t see him being elected for a second term that way.
He’d be better off to take a hard line and push Clegg into Brown’s arms, then wipe the floor with Labour when the inevitable election occurs within a year.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Brown’s promissory note on electoral reform is fake because he cannot deliver. He is unlikely to be PM whatever happens. The Labour Party’s dislike of PR probably runs deeper than the Tories having had 13 years of single party Government. The left will walk. I agree a traffic light Government being offered by Brown is hypothetically possible. And it will not last – so where does electoral reform go?? Clegg is right to talk to the Tories to see if a two party deal can be done. But the recriminations in the Tory Party will be significant if the deal is not done.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
you are wrong farrar…
prop-rep is the lynch-pin around which this deal swings…
..(and cameron can’rt/won’t deliver on that…brown/labour will…)
clegg has to talk to cameron/the tories..first..’cos he said he wd…and as a single party..they got the most votes
(..but still only 35%..eh..?)
but ..once we have gone through the motions/ticked all the boxes…the outcome will be a labour/lib-dem coalition..with or without brown..
..and with a firm date for prop-rep..
one of us will be right..eh..?
oh..!and for clegg to do a deal..with no promised prop-rep…
will sign his own political death warrent..eh..?
he ain’t that stupid..he wants labour….without brown..
..and ..(most important of all/the ‘lynch-pin’…)
…with prop-rep..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
I still hope the Tories harden up and go it alone, better to play their own game then to prostitute themselves to the left. Let Brown and Clegg get into bed together, it would be a complete fuck up with a speedy divorce. These lefty clowns have no mandate to govern and the people will take it out of their sorry hides if they attempt to. Let the left play their games and at the same time completely destroy themselves.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Jack – Nick Clegg is too hog-tied by his own party rules (two thirds majorities) and it may need a postal ballot of members to support a stand one way or the other.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
phil, wots “prop rep” and why is it important?
(Can’t be arsed looking it up myself)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
I think philu’s right. The Lib Dems must be drunk on their own popularity about now, and mulling over what that could have secured them under proportional representation.
A commitment to change the electoral system will be the deal breaker here – whether or not it’s announced as having constituted one of items agreed between the parties. The Lib Dems may well demand it be left off the list so they don’t look too self-serving.
Unless Cameron is prepared to make that offer – and risk becoming even less popular amongst the Conservatives’ conservative rump then he already is – then the spectre of several more years of Labour – albeit perhaps with a Brown retirement after a year or so, to save face – would be my prediction. Not that it gives me any joy to make it.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
DPF,
To look at it from another perspective, there could still be a labour-lib government. They will still require support from PC, SNP and the NI labour MPs. Throw in the NI Alliance party MP and you would have the numbers to cross the 323 majority threshold. Sure, a bit of pork will need to be rolled out to the Scottish, Irish and Welsh provinces. The Price for Labour to stitch up this deal will be a change in Leader and hence Prime Minister.
Arguably it is a more logical combination than a Conservative- Libdem coalition. Given the state of the economy, it may be favourable for the Tories to sit back and let this happen. Come 10 months time when the government collapses under the weight of it own internal squabbles, the Tories will be in a stronger position to contest the next election.
[DPF: If Labour and Libs could govern by themselves then that could well be a deal. To rely on the Welsh, Scottish and Irish is possible in theory but might only last months. You need to recall UK parties are not whipped as tightly as NZ, and backbenchers often cross the floor. Also by-elections occur often. Hence normally 15+ seats is regarded as the minimum for a working majority. You can only get that with Cons and LD. Any other combination will be unstable. This does not guarantee it of course]
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
FPP has favoured Labour in the last few elections far more than any other political party. Labour to given in easily to electoral reform will be signing their death wish.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Lock in C: “Proportional Representation” please Eddie.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Cheers Leonidas.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
Whatever happens, Europe is marching faster and faster towards a communist dictatorship based in Brussels.
In 1989 the Berlin Wall may have fallen, only to be re-erected east of Britain.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Clegg does not want to work with Brown. A significant part of the Labour Party does not want to work with Brown. So how can a complex Government be brought together with all this going on. It cannot. So Clegg insists on a new PM from Labour – who and how is he (no she’s) appointed??? Clegg saying I can work with anyone except Brown. So then the person emerges. I suppose Brown remains Leader in the meantime until a ballot is decided. The Tory deal is much simpler in comparison – no leadership problems. Just a sticking point on electoral reform. Clegg who campaigned heavily on this point actually LOST votes. So how strong is his hand. Brown is playing clever politics on this one but his promissory note is fake.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
[quote]For my 2c, I am convinced David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister.[/quote]
Yes, but you also seem convinced that key’s been a good prime minister…
[DPF: As are most New Zealanders, given his ratings are the highest of any Prime Minister since at least 1974]
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
“..reid (3989) Says:
May 9th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
phil, wots “prop rep” and why is it important?..”
proportional-representation..?
..the main lib-dem policy-plank..?
do try to keep up..!..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
FPP has favoured both major parties. If this election would have been under a PR election, Labour and LibDems have more than 50% of the seats and would have been able to form a stable coalition. With Labour and LibDems holding 52% of the vote together, it’s hardly a convincing mandate for Cameron.
On the other hand the whole election campaign would have been fought differently and surely voting would have been different under PR. LibDems might have been even stronger, to the detriment of Labour.
Electoral reform is the biggest item. Whoever offers it first will secure the government. Whichever way it goes, I doubt it will last the whole term, so the LibDems have to ensure that the review is timely as well as comprehensive.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
“do try to keep up..!..eh..?”
phil, see my 3:15
do try to keep up
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7120730.ece
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
The Lib Dems increased their vote by 1%, (and yet they lost 5 seats.)
They have 23% of the popular vote, but just under 9% of the seats.
Pretty strong points I would say.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/results/
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Yes FPP has lots of quirks. Last time Labour received less votes percentagewise than the Tories this time, but they had a comfortable majority to govern.
I am not saying FPP is good, but just saying that Labour will not want to give it up so easily as they have been the biggest benefactors of it. Even more so than the Tories.
Vote:On the other hand, PR will impact negatively upon the nationalist parties like SNP and PC. If they were part of a Labour led government this would be something they would not want to give up.
May 9th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
tvb – I keep saying Miliband. I’m convinced that was the real reason for Blair to reappear at the tail of the campaign.
I reckon though, that the Libs and Cons will be able to agree a legislative program to move on with while they keep talking…what odds on a trade off pair of referrenda on PR and Europe?
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
One of the big issues would seem to be England voting Conservative but Scotland and Wales voting Labour. The electoral reform which seems needed in UK is not PR (permanent left wing majorities until they have spent everyelse’s money, which is close in any case), but devolvement to an English parliament. Let the Welsh and Scottish assemblies tax and spend their own residents/budgets.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
Because partisan reporting is just so much more attractive when it’s for the side you support. The partisanship of the reporting in the run up to the election was disgusting. Papers should report the news, not pick sides and slant it – with the exception of opinion-pieces, especially when there’s a fairly large, politically gullible populace.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Out, damn’d Scot! out, I say!
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Of course, as usual, you ignore the facts. And of course, the Sun Newspaper is entirely unbiased as well. Unfortunately, humourous as it may be, it ignores these simple facts. David Cameron and the Tories dont’ have a majority. They have fewer than 50% of the available seats, even with the outstanding seat to be dealt with later in the month, and way less than 50% of the popular vote. So most people in the UK don’t actually want them to govern. Of course, who would be a highly biased poll from a right wing or left oriented newspaper? Secondly, the sitting Prime Minister under the British constitution is actually obliged to attempt to form a Government. If Gordon Brown, who may be extremely unpopular (but only 7% less popular than David Cameron, I might add), is unable to muster the numbers (which may be likely, but who knows?) then the party with the largest numbers gets the second turn. So, it may be that Gordon Brown may cobble together a workable coalition between the other parties, which seem more closely aligned in any case. It would certainly piss off the Tories and their buddies in the British Press. Also, why is it that you think that the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Irish parties would not favour a form of Proportional representation? In New Zealand, we have special requirements for the indigenous people, and so does the German electoral system, which has special seats for the Danish ethnic minority in the north. So, it is easily conceivable that a party only need gain 5% of its own national vote, say 5%. The SNP, Plain Cymru and many of the Irish Parties would scream in. So, don’t be easily fooled. I’m sure that Nick Clegg and Labour could easily gain the support required to govern based on that idea. It would be absolutely attractive to the smaller countries in the UK. And of course, you can easily see that MMP forms stable governments, both here, despite it’s relative infancy, and more importantly in Germany, which had a history of instability before MMP and now has one of the most stable political systems in the world. The key here is the remember that once the election is over, it is entirely up to the elected members to form a government, not the British Press. Hard luck to the Tories if they are unable to garner support within the elected members. However, I think that David Cameron is probably wilely enough to work with Nick Clegg, who has already stated that he will work with the largest party to form a government or a least to support the largest party in parliament. So, I fully expect that it will be a Conservative/Liberal Democratic government, and Nick Clegg will independantly work outside of this framework, if necessary, to gain the support for proportional representation. And with the support of Labour, and the other minority parities, he may well get this. Ironically, apparently the UK are using the New Zealand house rules for the negotiation process during this time. If any of the parties are regarded by the public as either too pushy or as giving in too easily, they will probably suffer at the next election. These are delicate times and short term thinking may be the undoing of parties at the next election, so I’m sure that they will be working very hard to form a workable government, and I’m pretty sure that the Conservatives will be the main party in government. And why is it that people associate the left with tax and spend? The right wing are quite adept at spending money on their pet projects too.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Also, if you think that is funny, check this out. Very humourous.
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2010/05/07/sweeney.magic.wall.hung.parliament.cnn
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Oops a couple of typos. Should have read: Of course, who would believe a highly biased poll from a right wing or left oriented newspaper? Secondly, the sitting Prime Minister under the British constitution is actually obliged to attempt to form a Government. And of course humorous, not humourous.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
Re: the numbers, scroll down to the bottom of this link which gives the numbers under various possible scenarios.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
Well, Wales went Tory and LibDem this time and half of Scotland went the other than Labour.
Vote:Why would PR mean permanent left wing majorities? Do you really think that the conservatives have such bad policies, that they couldn’t win an election?
May 9th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
“..Do you really think that the conservatives have such bad policies, that they couldn’t win an election?..”
that pretty much ‘nails it’..
(astonishing as it may seem to you..many of those you want to fuck over….
..would rather not be fucked over by you/your ‘evil’/class-warfare/fuck-the-poor policies/beliefs…eh..?
comes as a bit of a shock..?..does it…?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
“…So, I fully expect that it will be a Conservative/Liberal Democratic government, and Nick Clegg will independantly work outside of this framework, if necessary, to gain the support for proportional representation…”
you had me ’till there…
this is cleggs/lib-dems big..possibly only..window of opportunity for prop-rep..
do you really think they will throw that away…?
..to ‘independantly work outside of this framework’..?
in other words…tp piss that one-window opportuniyu up against the wall..?
and for what..?
nah..!..lib-dems/labour..minus brown..and with prop-rep..
..will win on the day..
..i haven’t seen one argument against this scenario..that is not riddled with logical flaws..
(i.e..’Nick Clegg will independantly work outside of this framework, if necessary, to gain the support for proportional representation.’..)
rubbish…!
flawed/illogical thinking…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 6:38 pm
“..i haven’t seen one argument against this scenario..that is not riddled with logical flaws..”
er, how about those numbers I gave above phil, that shows even with lib-dems/liarbore (uk version), they still don’t have the numbers.
BTW, funny isn’t it how in the whole of the UK, the Greens could only get one candidate elected. One. In the whole of the UK. I’ll bet they still have violent caucus disagreements, notwithstanding.
Did you laugh at that as well phil?
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
“He’d be better off to take a hard line and push Clegg into Brown’s arms, then wipe the floor with Labour when the inevitable election occurs within a year.”
Now that would be the right thing to do!
Can you imagine anyone having to work with, let alone work for Brown. Shudders…………
Clegg actually really despises Brown. Have watched every PMQT during January and February before we got on big bird South.
Why it is still called PMQT is a mystery to me. PM’s Tractor Statistics, Lies and Obfuscation is much more accurate.
Brown dealt numerous cheap, rude, and cynical at Clegg personally. Very silly. But typical of an Automaton, whose next TV cameo could well be on Dr Who as the ‘Master’.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
No one wants the loony Lib Dumbs in parliament except dickhead students and crackheads like Phillip.
And I’d rather see a LibLab coalition that disintegrates in six months followed by a solid Tory majority with no appearance from UKIP who cost the party 20 seats.
Vote:May 9th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
cjkiwi … a bit of free advice:
Vote:(1) Keep your comments short — ie, less than 100 words, or people will not read them
(2) If you want to write more, develop multifaceted arguments, etc, set up your own blog
May 10th, 2010 at 3:11 am
Gordon Brown is finished. Another Lefty bites the dust. Much blood letting to be had in the Labour Party which will provide entertainment for all.
Vote:May 10th, 2010 at 7:58 am
Brown is a nasty piece of work – his temper is legendary and he burned through staff at an enormous rate. It comes as no surprise to hear that he and Clegg had a row over the phone. A coalition of Labour (a tired government that the electorate was tired of) and the Lib Dems who actually got fewer seats than in 05 despite Clegg winning the first TV debate would be very unpopular.
The options are pretty ugly all round I’m afraid. Even if David is right and Cameron is able form a new government it will be one that won’t be able to get its head around Britain’s financial woes. The 1974 hung Parliament situation saw Wilson try a minority government which collapsed 6 months later and he was able to eke out a small majority in the 2nd election of the year.
Cameron’s options are limited because in theory Labour could lead a grand (and messy) coalition of Lab, LDP, SNP, UNP and Plaid. I’d imagine Brown would still be ousted if such a deal emerges. A Tory – Lib Dem coalition could easily flounder on the prop rep rock as the polls show PR head of FPP.
It will all boil down to the chemistry between Cameron and Clegg and their respective ability to wring concessions from their respective parties to do a deal.
Whatever emerges will be messy and ineffective and will inevitably lead to a fresh election within a year IMHO.
Vote:May 10th, 2010 at 8:01 am
*DUP not UNP
Vote: