Online panel polls
A couple of media outlets have reported this poll from Horizonpoll:
National has an 8% lead over Labour in the latest HorizonPoll voting intentions survey covering 3,673 New Zealanders.
National has 30% of decided voters (3% down on its 2008 share of all registered voters).
Labour has 22% (3% down on its 2008 share of all registered voters).
Even before one looks at what type of poll this is, warning bells should emerge over one claiming National has only 30% of “decided” voters when every other poll has them around 50%.
Also when they compare the percentage of “decided” voters to the percentage of “registered” voters. This would only be useful if there was 100% turnout.
But the big reason why the media should not report this as a poll, is it is not a phone poll, but an Internet panel survey.
At some stage I will do a fuller post on the pros and cons of Internet panels. In some circumstances they can be very useful – especially when surveying the opinions of a discrete group.
But generally they are unreliable when it comes to being a fair sample of all New Zealanders. Because they are only representing those NZers who have joined that online panel. And even with weighting, this does not mean it is representative. A weighted sample can still be unrepresentative.
Over time they will become more useful, as panels become larger. But in my opinion you need really really large panels. The only political poll I currently trust which is done through online panels is You Gov in the UK. They have a fine record of accuracy. Their large panels, means that every poll they do is not the same 3,000 or so people responding to it.
As I said, online panels do have some valid uses. And it is inevitable they will become more dominant over time, as the challenges for phone polling increase.
But my view is that at this stage in NZ, they are not a reliable indicator of New Zealand public opinion. I have seen many online panel polls like the above, which produce results massively different from those produced by phone polls. Normally I ignore them, but as some media reported this one, I thought it is worth making the point.
It would be useful if media did not report online panel polls just as “polls”, but always make it clear it is a “Internet panel survey”.
September 23rd, 2010 at 8:24 am
It would be just as useful for msm to report polls for what they are worth too, rather than suggesting that they are somehow representative of something meaningful…
September 23rd, 2010 at 8:49 am
This “Internet panel survey” at least includes undecided (20%) which seems realistic, a lot of people wil be unsure at this stage.
Something many polls seem to leave out is the undecideds, who I thought would be some of the more important voters. Polls showing National 50, Labour 30, Greens, Act, Maori etc adding up to most of the rest, they are ignoring undecided, which are the ones that will actually decide the outcome of an election.
Plus, beyond the undecideds are those who won’t participate. How many more % will be in that category? Nine times out of ten I won’t do a political poll, it’s pointless as I don’t make my mind up until the day I vote.
September 23rd, 2010 at 9:07 am
hmmm…lets advocate for selective reporting of polls that only favour our political bias, then eh ?
For all the bullshit, the people in that poll still don’t rate Key and his gov’t that highly, Goff even less and for a lot of people the jury is still out on who they’d vote for.
Sounds like a fair snapshot off the public mood.
And what do you think is gonna happen to Key’s popularity after the 20% GST price gouge/increase and the introduction of the ‘fatcat’ taxcuts ?
[DPF: Try not to talk on topics you obviously know nothing about. You look foolish. This is not about picking polls that favour one side - I know you can;t imagine in your partisan brain any other explanation though. This is about the reliability of Internet panels as being representative of the overall population]
September 23rd, 2010 at 10:09 am
[DPF: Try not to talk on topics you obviously know nothing about. You look foolish. This is not about picking polls that favour one side - I know you can;t imagine in your partisan brain any other explanation though. This is about the reliability of Internet panels as being representative of the overall population]
Hah…oh right, so i should let the experts formulate my opinion and i just BAA along in unison with the rest of the sheeple come voting time . Looking foolish is not something i give 2 shits about eh… especially not online
Partisan ? ohh now isn’t that a classic black kettle calling the pot out moment. FWIW I’m no more a Goff fan as i am a Key one and no, IN MY OPINION, this isnt about the reliability of internet panels as being representative of the overall population
this is about you calling this poll out cos it shows your beloved National party slipping in the polls and if it had showed them hovering about the 60% you prolly would have held it up as proof of the good work and massive public support Key has….PFFFT.
spin it all you like but you’re obviously not as clever as you think you are and it’s foolish to even pretend you can fool us into thinking you are…
you’re sooo transparently partisan it’s laughable, but i suppose if i was paid to be, i would be too.
so yeah using your ipredict skills, how about answering this…what do you think is gonna happen to Key’s popularity after the 20% GST price gouge/increase and the introduction of the ‘fatcat’ taxcuts ?
especially if you factor in Auckland confidence shows steep dive or this Auckland confidence shows steep dive
I’d like to see Smile and Wave and Blinglish cast their magic trickle down economic policy wand over that and make it all disappear.
September 23rd, 2010 at 10:44 am
DPF, now that you have raised polling methodology, care to comment on the Banks polling that only seeks the voting intentions of those who voted last time, in order to bolster his numbers over Brown?
[DPF: That is an incorrect assertion]
September 23rd, 2010 at 11:09 am
Rogue Poll eh
September 23rd, 2010 at 11:30 am
What is a “panel poll”? Is it different from, say, the internet polls on stuff.co.nz?
September 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 am
How important are the “undecideds” in normal polling? Are they omitted because it’s too hard to do anything with them. Do they normally follow the approximate proportions of the committed voter? Unless there are late shifts?
I thought the main “deciders” in an election were which way the undecideds end up going, how many of the undecideds don’t vote (“can’t decide so won’t bother”, “I’m lukewarm so won’t bother”, “they don’t deserve it but I won’t vote for the others”) and how many decided voters don’t vote – especially important for the struggling side as the Dems know for November. Activating the base is a key strategy.
October 13th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
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