The polls this week
November 11th, 2011 at 9:07 am by David FarrarAt Stuff I blog on who would be in and out of Parliament based on the average of the polls this week:
If National gains 65 seats, they will gain many new MPs. Highly placed candidates Jian Yang, Paul Goldsmith and Alfred Ngaro were always going to make it in, as were electorate candidates Simon O’Connor, Maggie Barry, Ian McKelvie, Mark Mitchell, Mark Sabin and Scott Simpson. Joining them would be candidates Paul Foster-Bell, Claudette Hauiti, Jo Hayes and Leonie Hapeta.
This would give National its most ethnically diverse caucus ever. They would have 11 Maori MPs, three Asian MPs and two Pacific MPs. They would also have a record 18 female MPs (but their proportion of the caucus would be unchanged).
What people may find amusing is I made a typo in the original, and it read “give National its most ethically diverse caucus” 
November 11th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Yep, I am still picking a Labour led govt for 2011-2014. Too many stupid people out there acting as Turkeys for Xmas.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Must be a rogue poll!
Confirms your summation DPF on yesterdays post re Herald Digipoll being less favourable to National though. http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/differences_between_pollsters.html
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:13 am
My predictions are 100% correct so far…. national could be forced out by an unholy Labour/Greens/Maori Party.
We’d have Mr 5% destroying the countries finances, and handing it to the dole bludgers.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:15 am
Has anyone else picked up on this Labour policy?
Sounds good until you understand that in 3 or 4 years time they will be door-stops and need replacing. Going to stump up another wad of money every 3 or 4 years? Labour have a habit of doing this. Announcing policy that has on-going costs that aren’t budgeted.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:15 am
The message is clear. National voters must get out and vote – two ticks!
Vote:Otherwise god help NZ with Phil the Flipper and Red Russel ruling the roost.
November 11th, 2011 at 9:16 am
Each country get the government it deserves!
Full of bludgers and people raised with an entitlement mentality NZ will choose a mob of “leaders” keen to satisfy its craving for “free” money and second-rate services.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:22 am
WE need protecting from parliament.
4 year term instead of 3 so policy can be properly implemented.
Vote:term limits on MPs no more than 3 terms so that gets rid of the professionals
binding citizen referendums
recall referendums both MP’s and elections.
November 11th, 2011 at 9:22 am
If we snap back to reality for a moment and assume that about 7% of people will waste their votes – NZ First, Conservative, Legalise Drugs, United Future etc it means National is still likely to get an overall majority in Parliament with 63/64 seats.
Perhaps when Parliament reassembles it is time to abolish MMP and return to FPP so National can win a landslide in 2014 and all this nonsense can end once and for all.
We all know that National MPs are ‘normal’, responsible people whereas there is no particular reason why there should be insane Green watermelons, whom nobody actually voted for, in the House seeking to impoverish the country.
Abolish MMP. End of..
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Why would people elect National? Size of Government was 32% under Labour, it’s 36% under John Key.
It’s doesn’t really matter if you get the socialists or the National Socialists.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Mick Mac, we absolutely do not need 4 years. 3 years is enough damage, with 4 years socialism will proceed at even greater pace.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:41 am
Phil Goff needs to come out today, and say that John Key was right in February when Key said that he would rather lose power than do a deal with Winston Peters. If Goff had any integrity, he would tell Peters the same thing that Key has; no! Winston Peters cannot be allowed to hold the country to ransom as he did in 1996 and 2005.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Bear in mind:
The poll of 750 voters was conducted from November 3 to 9.
The party vote is of decided voters only and 8.1 per cent of the sample was undecided.
The margin of error is 3.6 per cent. (at least, based on flawed ideas of homogeneity IMO)
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:55 am
Two thoughts.
1. Winston Peters’ recent activity is probably good timinig as it will galvanise people to vote against him.
2. Election day is going to be great. I’m going to sit down at 4pm in the Auckland Central sun (hopefully) with some good rum and watch the good times role in.
Vote early and vote often everyone!
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 9:55 am
@berend
“Why would people elect National? Size of Government was 32% under Labour, it’s 36% under John Key”
Got a source for that, or making shit up? I do love stats, lies, bloody lies etc…
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:09 am
Actually a left lead government would probably be quite amusing for a week or two. Would be like employing a group of retards to run a nuclear reactor. Total destruction could be guaranteed.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:22 am
really ?
hence holding back on that cup of tea with Banksy til the weasly one needed to !!!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5948536/Key-and-Banks-to-talk-Epsom-over-tea
time to stitch up a dodgy backroom deal for the Epsom sheeple and make a mockery of our democratic processes.
I feel a Dr Bob moment from the muppets coming on…cue voice from the sky
Will the pathological hatred of Goff be enough to counter the irrational love for John Key if it means we have to suffer the dodgy don and bumbling banks back into parliament for a last swill at the trough ?
Tune in next week when you’ll hear DPF say…
“It shows why hopefully Labour is dropping in the polls and hopefully will be crushed on November 26.”
…as the assembled throng look to the heavens and wonder what should they really be taking their cues to vote on ?
policy, personality, privatisation, pollsters ?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:27 am
side show bob….ask the people of Fukushima how much fun it is to live with a reactor that is run by a bunch of numpties!
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:28 am
I posted this earlier in a previous thread
Interesting development with the Herald poll – it is a little out of line with the TVNZ and Fairfax polls. Be interesting to see where the TV 3 and Roy Morgan polls come in.
The average of the 3 latest polls are Nats 52 Lab 27.5 Green 11.4 ACT 1.2 and NZ1st 3 – I leave out the Maori Party as it gets more electorate seats than its percentage entitles it to and UF and Mana are both not polling at a level high enough to trigger a 2nd MP – at this stage.
In looking at the big 5 polls published in the last week of the 2008 campaign, all but TVNZ were polling up until Nov 2 which was a week before the election on Nov 8 so they all missed voter movement in the last week, 4 of 5 had National too high, were pretty much spot on with Labour, all 5 were too high with the Greens and all underestimated ACT and NZ1st.
The average of all 5 2008 polls are (with the actual result in parentheses): Nat 46.4 (44.9) – over by 1.5/Lab 34 (34) – spot on/Greens 8.4 (6.7) – over by 1.7/ACT 3 (3.65) – under by 0.65/NZ1st 3.4 (4.07) – under by 0.67
The poll exaggeration for National is only 3% out and represents National voters who expressed their intention to vote but didnt get out to vote. Labour clearly was better at getting out its intended voters and they will work very hard this time round to do the same. The Greens vote is always overstated in the polls – almost every election the polls exaggerate the Greens by 1.5 – 2% points and that is a substantial 25% mistake. I put this down to 2 things – the Greens are a romantic ideal but enough voters who tell pollster they’ll vote Green dont plus they are overrepresented in the under 25s, a notoriously fickle and difficult group to turn out. Both ACT and NZ1st are underestimated by about the same amount about 0.65%. In the case of ACT in 2008 its a 20% under representation largely IMO accounted for by the small sample size of polls (1000 or less) which has a more skewering effect on really small parties. NZ1st was underestimated by the same extent and that is explained by some people secretly admiring Winston but being too ashamed to admit it to pollsters but voting for him anyway.
I think the slippage for National will be higher this election due to apathy – closer to 6-8% and I’d expect Labour’s turnout machine to get its supporters to the polls. The issue of youthful Green voters not showing up to vote is just as likely to happen again and the under representation of ACT and NZ1st is still an issue.
Based on these 3 polls averages and assuming the election was tomorrow and making these adjustments you’d be looking at:
Nat 48 Lab 27.5 Green 8.5 ACT 1.5 and NZ1st 3.6 – very close to the Nats not being able to govern alone – hence why Key is having a cuppa in Epsom with Banksie soon!
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:30 am
Anyone else notice this
Vote:http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503012&objectid=10765227
MMP is leading by just 5%
I suspect a lot of MMPs support is soft vote who won’t bother voting on the day and just say MMP because its all they know.
National needs to come out in support of another voting system (SM) now.
November 11th, 2011 at 10:30 am
As a snapshot of the mood of the nation the poll is interesting in that it reflects the growing opposition to asset sales.Conservative voters opposed to asset sales are moving to NZ First, albeit in relatively small numbers, not enough to get Winston over the line at this stage.
Vote:The Greens are showing the greatest increase in support, which could exponentially grow further if the “Occupy” movement are rough handled post election. However the Greens growth would not be sufficient to form a government with Labour whom continue to bleed support to the minor parties.
In my view based on the patterns at present there will still be a National lead government, with the Maori Party and United Future as coalition partners. Act don’t look like they will make the cut.
November 11th, 2011 at 10:35 am
On the bright side, Act moved up a bit and Winston First’s increase will (hopefully) mean nothing come results.
Vote:Good to see that there is increasing support for voting to change. Would LOVE to see MMP dumped.
November 11th, 2011 at 10:39 am
@ BWAV – for your information, Labour HAS dropped in every poll that has been released this week.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:40 am
Short of a complete implosion by ACT, I’m going to switch my PV from National to ACT this time around I reckon.
Who’s with me?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:43 am
IV2 Sounding a little desparate, You forgot to mention the elephant in the room, John Keys mega ego.
John Key would beg to suck Winstons’ toes in public, if Winston held the balance of power.
“Would you like Don Brashs toe to suck,with your a cup of tea Mr Key” ? ooo can I?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:48 am
Funny how Winston is painted as corrupt but the others aren’t. The way i see it is that Winston will wave the other parties dirty laundry such as, nationals hegemony with realestate agents , immigration agents and developers. While a lot of developers went to the wall and property investors over committed a hell of a lot made a fat killing and , no doubt, are first to call needy people “bludger”. We are having to sell hydro dams to make up for their gains (essentially).
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:49 am
Hannity – not sure that Phil Goff’s mouth is big enough to fit all the toes he would have to suck!
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 10:50 am
“If wealth was the inevitable result of hard work and enterprise, every woman in Africa would be a millionaire. The claims that the ultra-rich 1% make for themselves – that they are possessed of unique intelligence or creativity or drive – are examples of the self-attribution fallacy. This means crediting yourself with outcomes for which you weren’t responsible. Many of those who are rich today got there because they were able to capture certain jobs. This capture owes less to talent and intelligence than to a combination of the ruthless exploitation of others and accidents of birth, as such jobs are taken disproportionately by people born in certain places and into certain classes.
The findings of the psychologist Daniel Kahneman, winner of a Nobel economics prize, are devastating to the beliefs that financial high-fliers entertain about themselves(1). He discovered that their apparent success is a cognitive illusion. For example, he studied the results achieved by 25 wealth advisers, across eight years. He found that the consistency of their performance was zero. “The results resembled what you would expect from a dice-rolling contest, not a game of skill.” Those who received the biggest bonuses had simply got lucky.
Vote:Such results have been widely replicated. They show that traders and fund managers across Wall Street receive their massive remuneration for doing no better than would a chimpanzee flipping a coin. When Kahneman tried to point this out they blanked him. “The illusion of skill … is deeply ingrained in their culture.”(2)
http://www.monbiot.com/2011/11/07/the-self-attribution-fallacy/
November 11th, 2011 at 10:51 am
Kiwi in America.
I don’t think you understand the relevance of NZ First with their 3.6%. Unless they win an electorate seat, which seems very unlikely, those 3.6% of votes are essentially wasted. If we discount those, then National get 51.3% of the valid vote. If the other minor parties below the 5% threshold cannabalise the vote, say about 3% in total, then Nationals percentage gets higher, unless those parties win in an electorate.
Only ACT, United Future, the Maori Party and possibly Mana look likely to do that. Of those, 3 will side with National.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Yup slightyrighty – as long as NZ first doesn’t get across the line it’s good for National that they take some of the vote off both main parties.
I do wonder what effect (if any) JK’s tea with Banks will have.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:04 am Vote:
November 11th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Brash is at 86% and Dunne is at 82% on ipredict.
Vote:I think both of those will firm toward 90% if Nats looks shakey.
This latest poll is a great help for National as it will get voters out to vote.
Nat/Act/UF should get 55 – 57% of un wasted votes and with little or no overhang this time round.
November 11th, 2011 at 11:18 am
Whether this is a rogue poll only time will tell but I suspect that National are now in danger of becoming a victim of their own success. I am not sure that voting public are really that keen on a majority government just yet and we may see increasing support for the Minor parties as we get closer to the election. In turn this could spell real danger for the Nats given the weakness of the Brash party.
The Greens have run a great campaign that has targeted their constituency well and moved them away from the lunatic fringe element that they have been struggling with for years. The difficulty for them is that the core of their support are the ones that supported the nutters that stood for them in the past. Keeping them happy while they work to attract more main stream support may be a balancing act too far for them in the long term but only time will tell.
Given this poll result will national panic about Act in the last couple of weeks and pull their Epsom candidate out of the race. This could happen especially if it becomes possible that the Labour and Green supporters in Epsom look like they will vote Tactically for the National Candidate. If this poll result is not an rogue one then the pressure will go on the National Party strategists.
labour’s outcome still looks miserable whichever way you look at it. Nationals fall has been spread among the “minors” and Labour continues to languish. Doesn’t look good – who is the new leader going to be is already occupying the minds of the few that will get back into parliament.
SlightlyRighty I think you presume too much if you think that the Maori party siding with the Nats is a forgone conclusion. Remember that history shows that most of the Party vote from the Maori seats still goes the way of labour hence the overhang. For that matter history also shows us that if we put it really kindly Dunn is a pragmatist. He will go with anyone who promises him a ministerial post. As Bob Jones so eloquently put it during the last election – Peter Dunn is the “Town Bike of national politics”
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:21 am
My wife told me last week that she overheard a group of women discussing politics. One said she was not going to vote for John Key now, because he did nothing about the Rena.
FFS – this is the mentality of a very large number of voters – ignorance and apathy, and the average kiwi loving to get a free handout from the pollies – whether it is affordable or not.
I’m a staunch National man, but ACT is getting my party vote to ensure their support. Brash made a lot of sense at the meeting he held in Tauranga on Wednesday.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Doom for some – the 11/11/11 prediction.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:28 am
Key is Jesus to a Child !!!
standard missionary position then ?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:28 am
Mark – Jones was not being very accurate, Town Bikes have a much worse reputation but get a lot more attention, such is human nature.
Is Winston the Town Zimmer?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:29 am
hj
Good grief. You should team up with the stupid fucking water woman. You just might even be more stupid than she is.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:35 am
And that would be something of monumental proportions.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 11:47 am
In respect of the Herald poll, here are several POINTS WHICH SHOULD BE NOTED.
• This week there have been two polls – TV One and NZ Herald.
• Based on extensive independent analysis (not mine), TV One tends to overstate Nat’s support. The NZ Herald tends to understate.
The latest Herald poll is questionable. It finds that Conservative is 1%. Legalise Cannabis is 0.7%, Harawira is 0.8 %, United Future is 0.7% ,Maori 0.5% and Peters 3.7%. CRAP!
I say that Peters MAY have increased his support (marginally), but to say that the Cannabis and Conservative parties each have more support than Māori is BS. Ergo the minor party poll results are questionable to say the least.
MY CONCLUSION:
Vote:The National down trend is accurate but the extent thereof and smaller party allocations are not to be trusted.
November 11th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Mark,
Vote:To be fair to Peter Dunne:
1) Yes, he supported Labour in 2005-8 – but he did NOT support Labour over National, he joined with Labour to keep the Greens out. There was no way National could have assembled a majority.
2) He has always kept his word about what he would do after an election. This year he has stated unequivocably that he is supporting National and will not support Labour.
November 11th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
National is not campaigning well. Although obviously shining in comparison to the dismal others.
Vote:John Key, made the decision to be popular, rather than do some of the things that need to be done.
Now that works, and keeps you around for a while.
But in the long run you can’t keep the voters on board with that.
Perhaps even DPF might admit that there is an air, that the voters do like Key, but are a tiny bit concerned about substance.
Trouble is that ‘tiny bit’ of concern will grow.
November 11th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
slightly righty
The relevance of including NZ 1st in that analysis is that as their polling average nudges up above 3% and knowing that they are underrepresented in polls by 0.67%, they could conceivably get into the zone where they might cross the 5% threshold (God forbid!).
National’s best outcome would be an NZ1st vote of 4.8% and that would increase the chances that they could govern alone even if polling around 47%.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
It will be interesting to see how the small parties votes next time. I think there may be some NZF voters who are concerned about the ETS, the separate Maori roll and other issues who may be more confident their vote will not be wasted. And of course those who have been made aware of the push polling in Rodney may also change their mind. Also long term National voters may generally support National policies but not be happy with the ETS particularly if they are farmers.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
@hmmokrightitis why do you think NZ got downgraded?
Why is National borrowing $300 million a week?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4719/
National = 53%
Labour = 26%
Greens = 12%
PetersFirst = 4.5%
Labour are slowly sinking…….
Oh dear how sad never mind!!
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Mick Mac 9:22 I agree, except for #1. Four years would give a future Labour led government one more year to stuff things up. I’d add another condition. If you’re on a benefit, you get one vote. The same if you’re in the public service. If you’re working 20 hours a week, you get two. It stops the unproductive sector milking the productive sector.
cheers
David Prosser
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Heh, not one eyed there at all ‘eh DJP?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Jian Yang was one of my lecturers at U of A. Great guy and a real asset to the National Party.
Hopefully JK promotes him into something decent and mainstream like associate trade or foreign affairs where he can put his expertise to good use rather than the ‘token portfolio for token MP’ approach that had Pansy Wong heading up Womens and Ethnic Affairs ministries.
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 6:15 pm
“Womens and Ethnic Affairs ministries.”
Why do we need such sexist and racist ministries in the first place?
Vote:November 11th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Noticed the cuppa today. The tea was like the actors. Weak as cat piss after a night out. Says it all really.
Vote:Unfortunately for the sake of NZ’s future we will all need to swallow slimeballs and support Banks.
Plenty needed to water down his ego with better people.