This entry was posted on Sunday, February 17th, 2013 at 6:38 pm and is filed under NZ Politics.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Both comments and pings are currently closed.
SPC, yes let’s mention the Roy Morgan poll. It had Lab/Green Taliban with enough support to govern. Its next effort will have them without enough support. The one after that will bounce back the other way. And so it goes on with Roy Morgan.
I swear their only use is to allow the left to get into a frenzy around the soggy biscuit every second month.
The truly startling thing about this result is WHY?
We have a government that is basically sitting on its hands. That may well be the correct strategy, god knows it would have to be better than the other sides mad ideas of printing money and building a billion homes for five bucks. But the apparent lack of doing anything is starting to wear thin. One can only assume that the bulk of the voters prefer a govt that does nothing than one run by mumbles and the tasmanian unicorn rider.
By leaving WFF, IFSL, Maori TV and everything else Helen & Michael left us ‘as-is’, National have confounded Labour. They didn’t expect this! All their clever, cynical, unaffordable traps haven’t been sprung. Doh!
Like Tony Blair’s Labour, National have swallowed up the entire middle ground and kept the left leaning voters JUST happy enough, and the right leaning National voters JUST happy enough.
Labour under Clark didn’t allow any fresh blood in so we see the desert they are still floundering around in five odd years later. Labour are being squeezed by an increasingly mental Green Party to the left and a soft mass appeal National Party to the right. Labour have nowhere to go, no plan, no leader, no financial nous except for robbing taxpayers, insane coalition partners and it gives the vast majority of New Zealanders the shits.
Ergo National is still riding high. They don’t have to do jack shit
” Labour have nowhere to go, no plan, no leader, no financial nous except for robbing taxpayers, insane coalition partners and it gives the vast majority of New Zealanders the shits”
the Savings Working Group (described by Matt Nolan as a group of “great thinkers”) blamed high house prices on tax breaks for property investors and high immigration. They also said that the cost of providing ever more infrastructure and borrowing needed to finance it appears to have worked directly against the adjustments NZ needed to make. After that piece of advice (which was rejected as flawed) John key proudly announced on BBC Hard Talk that “we” are a pro immigration country.
Perhaps the polls would be different if the media would tell people the news rather than tell people what they (or their advertisers) which to tell the people.
In the fascinating book – Good to Great – they explain that a truly great leader surrounds themselves with great people and accession is easy once they go.
I think the previous comment is right. Clark surrounded herself with idiots and it all worked well as long as she was in charge and the public was happy with her. The weakness of her leadership is now showing however.
duggledog has nicely summed up the political situation in New Zealand. National however will need to be on their A game from now until the election. MMP has made this a knife edge situation with the margin between centre-left and centre-right very close. National has no clear right leaning ally as yet and with the likelihood of the threshold being lowered to 4% retreating, the chances for the Conservatives making 5% are slim indeed. John Banks may try to cling onto Epsom for one more term but his re-election there is nowhere near as sure as it was in 2011 due to the Dot Com saga. NZ First’s woes will play in National’s favour very slightly because if Winston cannot haul his controversial party across the 5% threshold then more of his voters are likely to go to National than Labour.
Despite Labour’s paucity of talent and ongoing leadership issues (a resurgent activist base clearly more hard left and not enthusiastic about the caucus backing Shearer) and the Greens starting to show their red statist hands a little more, both parties can count on mostly favourable media coverage to give them a tail wind. Any potentially troublesome issue for National will be beat up as a crisis and a scandal and the lazy young cadre of political reporters have an ongoing love affair with all things Green and so we ought not count on their more nutty and damaging policies ever receiving mainstream media critical scrutiny.
John Key remains National’s most potent weapon. His breezy kiwi bloke manner layered over his steely resolve to aggresively manage politically risky issues and Ministers and his sharp mind that remains on top of most issues means the Opposition continues to underestimate him. For National to be polling a shade under 50% after what was (even allowing for media exaggerations) an annus horribilis for National in 2012 is testament to Key’s likeability and political management skills. There is still much that can go wrong but if the first 6 weeks of 2013 are anything to go by, if National can keep this new focus and discipline up for the next 18 months and Labour, the Greens and NZ 1st carry on like they are right now, an elusive 3rd term is possible.
KIA – good summation. But with a lack of potential coalition partners of any size National have something else working against them – voter resistance to giving one party a majority. And there’s no obvious sign of a solution.
Even if the threshold is lowered that won’t happen for the next election. That makes it unlikely the Conservatives will make it – they were 0% in this poll.
Act have a major challenge – they need to visibly get their act together, and they could do with an electable replacement for John Banks. And they (and National) have to avoid getting sucked into damaging media circuses like the tea party. Key will have learned his lesson but Act will be desperate for media attention.
I still think the best potential is United Future, not based on what the party is now but what it could be. A lot will depend on whether Peter Dunne stands again or not. If he does he has a reasonable chance of retaining Ohariu, he proved he can do this by beating off a combined Labour-Green campaign against him.
But it will take major changes in the party. The policy base is sound, but UF is short on talent. In particular it needs an injection of new generation candidates who see the potential and the opportunity to fast track themselves a significant position of power. And party leadership will be available in the not too distant future.
Using an established party without significant baggage would be far more effective than trying to start a new party from scratch.
And it provides a much quicker and easier path to a significant position of power than working your way up a large party to get a winnable electorate to stand in or a decent position on the list, and then having to wait your turn in a large caucus.
Of course it’s also riskier because the future of United is in question. But people who recognise opportunites and take risks are often those who succeed.
I don’t think I’m the future of the party, it needs a new generation. But I can help anyone who’s interested.
Manolo – what’s the alternative? You won’t get much change in a Key led National. The best way of pushing change is a small focussed bloc that could hold the balance of power. Act could do that but they haven’t succeeded much yet, partly due to their own stuff ups and partly because they are seen as potentially too extreme for most voters. I know you want more extreme but the electorate is unlikely to go along much with how far right you want things to go.
You have to go aim for what is realistically achievable, not an ideological dream that becomes little more than a recurring nightmare of frustration.
If National are smart they will go along with a 4% threshold that the other parties aside from NZF want. It would appear Colin Craig is playing very low key until closer the election. People do not want to waste their votes so they would be a lot more likely to vote Conservative if they can get their polling up to 3% if the threshold was 4%.
It would also benefit National long term for NZF to be elected in 2014. Winston knows he cannot live forever and I am sure he would like to see the party survive him for his legacy. Andrew Williams would be a likely successor and would likely go with National.
Perhaps, this is a bounce back from the lows of last year?
There seems to have not been too much negative news for the government in the last three months or so, so National have returned to a natural level of support in the high 40’s