Flavell looking safe

October 9th, 2013 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

TVNZ has results of a Te Karere DigiPoll in Waiariki.

The party vote results (and change from the election) are:

  • Maori Party 35% (+14%)
  • Labour 29% (-6%)
  • Greens 8% (-1%)
  • Mana 6% (-11%)
  • National 4% (-2%)
  • NZ First 3% (-8%)

The electorate vote:

  • Maori Party 43% (nc)
  • Labour 17% (-8%)
  • Mana 8% (-25%)

The changes are comparing election vote (with no undecideds) with current preferences (with undecideds) so take that into account. However it is very clear that the Maori Party is benefiting in from Flavell’s accession to the co-leadership, and he looks rather safe to retain the seat.

59% of voters said Flavell does an above average or better job as a local MP and only 4% say below average. That’s an incredibly high rating.

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10 Responses to “Flavell looking safe”

  1. anonymouse (716 comments) says:

    Not sure the same can be said for future Maori party candidates in Tamaki-makaurau or Te Tai Hauauru, once Pita and Tari retire…

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  2. kiwi in america (2,453 comments) says:

    Interesting result – the Mana vote was bolstered in 2011 by the candidacy of high profile Maori radical Annette Sykes. Its also Interesting that the Labour party vote is showing down even on their low 2011 result. Perhaps the Cunliffe bounce is dissipating. It is also a reflection of Flavell’s personal mana in that electorate.

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  3. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Why TV1 is suddenly publishing this poll all of a sudden? What happened to the TV3 opinion poll? Generally they publish it on the same day when the TV1 poll comes out. I have been watching TV3 news for the last two Sundays with the hope that the TV3 poll come out….any idea guys?

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  4. Manolo (13,774 comments) says:

    The sooner the racist Maori Party sinks and disappears, the better for NZ.

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  5. OneTrack (3,104 comments) says:

    The sooner the racist Maori electorates sink and disappear, the better for NZ. What happened to equality, or have we forgotten that quaint idea?

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  6. mikenmild (11,247 comments) says:

    The Maori Party could well be looking at Flavell being its only MP come 2014. Re Maori electorates, they will be abolished when Maori cease to choose a separate electoral option.

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  7. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    Big drop for NZ First

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  8. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    The guys who are advocating Maori seats to be abolished, please keep in mind without the support from Maori party, John Key and National don’t have any chance of coming back to power in 2014.

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  9. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    Maori Electorate polling has been historically woefully inaccurate. I recall just prior to last election a post was made on Kiwiblog that had Sharples ahead of Jones by a whopping 58% to 26% (actual: Sharples by less than 1000), and a comfortable lead of 10% for Rahui Katene in Te Tai Tonga (who lost).

    Other examples: polling in 1999 suggested Tu Wyllie would keep Te Tai Tonga for NZF, and Tuariki Delamere would retain Waiariki (both were soundly beaten).

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  10. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    …but in saying that, Flavell’s likely to hold on to his seat.

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