Guest Post: By-election analysis

December 9th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

A guest post by Kiwi in America on the by-election:

Labour and mainstream media commentators have said that the results in the Christchurch East by-election were bad for National and a negative portent for 2014. This analysis of the Christchurch East by-election compares the voter turnout and individual party’s performance compared to the three most recent general electorate . (BE) are unusual for a variety of reasons:

  • There is no party vote, only a candidate vote and so candidate personalities assume far greater significance than in General Election (GE) campaigns because in a GE, only the Party vote matters. A poor candidate fielded in a GE can hide to some extent and ride the party’s national coattails but is more exposed to negative media scrutiny in a BE.
  • Turnout is usually significantly lower in BEs thus changes in support for a particular party or an increase or decrease in turnout achieved by a party against the trend has a disproportionately greater effect
  • Because it is the only election going on, there is an inordinate amount of media focus. Thus particularly unusual local issues that normally might never see the media light of day in a GE assume greater s possibly skewering the result. This was certainly the case with Christchurch East where the issue of the slowness of insurers and the EQC to rebuild damaged homes after the earthquakes is a dominant but very local issue. Christchurch East is ground zero for residential damage in Christchurch having all of the residential red zone in its boundaries.
  • Similarly national issues of political significance can have a bearing on a BE result. A good example of this was National winning the normally reasonably safe Labour seat in the Timaru BE in 1985 because the BE was held right in the middle of the maximum pain inflicted by the implementation of Rogernomics.
  • Interest in BEs from the media, the major parties and thence the voters depend on how safe the seat is and how close the contest is likely to be. Of the 36 BEs since 1960, only one (Wellington Central in 1992) could be considered a marginal seat, the rest occurred in safe or relatively safe Labour or National seats.
  • BE results can be skewered by an emerging third party which lacks the resources to make an impact in a GE but can concentrate their efforts in a BE. There has been a long history of third party upsets (or near upsets) in BEs.
  • Whilst they are often a barometer of support for the government of the day on the day of the BE, they are rarely a bell weather of the fate of the government of the day in the subsequent GE as many bad BE results for incumbent governments are reversed in the next GE.

 Acknowledging these trends and in comparing it with the previous three BEs (all held since National assumed office in 2008), Christchurch East’s result was not exceptional.

Turnout

At 39%, turnout in the Christchurch East BE is at the low end of the scale dropping from 72% in the 2011 GE. However turnout for the Botany BE in 2011 was even lower at 37% (dropping from 72% in the 2008 GE). The Mana BE with a 54% turnout was exceptionally high for a BE. If you measure the total vote in the Christchurch East BE as a percentage of the total vote in the preceding GE, it does represent the worst result (47% versus 49% for Botany, 61% for Mt Albert and 68% for Mana).

Labour’s vote

Labour (and left friendly commentators) have made much of Poto Williams getting 61% of the total vote being a 7% increase from the 54% that Leanne Dalziel got in 2011. However the Christchurch East BE vote for Labour was only 52% of its 2011 GE vote. This was a smaller percentage than the Labour vote achieved in the previous three Bes. In Botany, Labour’s BE vote was a hefty 67% of its 2008 GE vote, in Mana in was 61% of its 2008 GE vote and in Mt Albert it was 65% of its 2008 GE vote.

National’s vote

In the Christchurch East BE National’s share of the vote dropped from 36% to 26% of the vote or 10%. Doocey only managed 34% of the vote that Gilmore got in the 2011 GE. However the Christchurch East result was little different to how National fared in the Mt Albert BE in 2009. This too was a safe Labour seat vacated by a prominent long standing MP. National’s percentage of the vote in the Mt Albert BE dropped to a paltry 17% from its 28% share in the 2008 GE – at 11% a bigger drop than it suffered in Christchurch East. Similarly if you look at the BE vote for National’s Melissa Lee, it was only 36% of the vote compared to what Ravi Musuku achieved against the then sitting Prime Minister Helen Clark in the 2008 GE. Given that Botany was a safe National seat, the comparison with Christchurch East is more difficult to make as the seat profiles are entirely different.

What happened in Mana

Whilst Mana has historically been a safe seat for Labour, Kris Fafoi only managed to eke out a paltry 1,400 vote majority for Labour in the November 2010 BE. Hekia Parata (already a list MP) managed to keep National’s vote at a staggering 80% of its vote in the 2008 GE and increased National’s share of the vote by 6% from 35% to 41% – something quite rare in BE history. Turnout was also very high at 54% of registered voters and 67% of the number who voted in the 2008 GE!

Conclusions

The result in the 2013 Christchurch East BE was very similar to what happened in the 2009 Mt Albert BE. A popular long standing sitting MP vacates a very safe Labour seat. National chose candidates who fought what could only be classified as very average campaigns in each BE. Matthew Doocey is not a rising star in the mould of say Simon Bridges and Melissa Lee, whilst already a List MP, made a number of pratfalls in the Mt Albert campaign. Given the historical trend of the Labour vote in both of these safe Labour seats, National’s head office were not going to devote much in the way of funds or personnel to fighting a hard campaign in seats they were never going to win. Thus the respective GOTV operations of the Doocey and Lee campaigns were largely down to the candidate’s capacity to motivate local National Party members. The importance of the local team the candidate puts together cannot be underestimated. Having fought in a few BEs, the quality and size of the team can make a huge impact on the eventual vote as turnout in BEs is crucial. Hekia Parata’s outstanding result could be put down to her putting together an aggressive and well organized team. Plus, whatever people might think of her skills as Minister of Education, she is a much more formidable campaigner than Doocey or Lee.

On the Labour side, Cunliffe had much to lose if the Christchurch East result was a repeat of the Mana result. Whereas in Mt Albert, Clark’s tenure there attracted some good electorate workers AND the candidate (David Shearer) was a handpicked high riser with an intriguing background with the UN, the Labour team in Mana were poorly organized and it would be fair to say that Winnie Laban had taken the Labour vote for granted in what had been a long standing safe Labour seat. Fafoi thought his media experience and name recognition would be enough but he was an entirely inexperienced candidate so you add a poorly staffed local electorate who had never really had to work hard to elect their MP with a novice campaigner against a crack local team behind an excellent campaigner and you can see how the Mana BE result happened.

Labour’s team needed to lift its game from even the Mt Albert BE because of the need to avoid an embarrassment to its new leader and because National had won the party vote (narrowly) in Christchurch East in 2011. Thus it was that much time and effort was put into Labour’s Christchurch East BE campaign. This began with deliberately siting the 2013 Labour Annual Conference in Christchurch and sending the 500 odd delegates out to canvas for a whole afternoon. As an organizer of canvassing efforts, I know that this would be enough people and time to be able to identify all Labour leaning voters in the electorate (which had 5,000 fewer enrolled voters than in the 2011 GE which in turn was down almost 10,000 enrolled voters on the 2008 GE due to earthquake related out-migration). Enter Jim Anderton, a veteran operative of the left who many may have forgotten was the Labour Party President from 1979 until he took over the Sydenham seat from the retiring and lackluster John Kirk in 1984. Anderton made sure that Labour had an excellent election day GOTV and that was off the back of now accurate canvassing records – something that was difficult to do given the upheaval and movement of people in the electorate since the earthquakes.

In many respects given how much Labour threw at the BE in Christchurch East up against a novice National candidate with zero name recognition in an electorate probably the most hostile to the government than any in the country given the anger and frustration of voters over the insurance related rebuilding delays and infrastructure chaos, this is actually not that bad a result for National. It’s true that Shearer was a ‘sexier’ candidate in Mt Albert than Poto Williams but really in so many ways the Christchurch East BE result was very close to the Mt Albert BE result.  Labour and its cheerleaders have already read too much into the result. National do have cause to be concerned in that its strong party vote showing in Christchurch in 2011 was an integral part of its nationwide winning margin.

In by-elections, getting out your vote is everything. National’s turnout in the 2011 GE was lower than all the polling showed partly because of the teapot tape kerfuffle but also because its soft and low information voters heard the ‘govern alone’ mantra and figured John Key was all good and didn’t need their vote. If National invests in a thorough and extensive nationwide Party vote GOTV effort, they will be able to weather almost any campaign storm that inevitably the left leaning media will throw at them, especially if the economy continues to gather steam and the Christchurch rebuild sees more residential homes targeted.

 Below the break

 be2 be1

 Notes

  1. Only General Electorates were compared so the results of the Maori electorate BEs (Ikaroa Rawhiti on 29 June 2013 and the Te Tau Tokerau on 25 June 2011) were not included in this analysis. The reason is that Maori electorates have a number of features that make them quite different from General Electorates not the least of which is that only Maori can be registered to vote. These differences include vastly larger geographical territories, the existence of parties specifically targeted at Maori that do not run candidates in General Electorates, the lower levels of voter registration and the generally lower levels of voter turnout. These factors combine to make comparison with General Electorates less meaningful.
  2. The comparison is with all General electorate BEs held in the 48th Parliament (2008 to 2011). Given that there were three General Electorate BEs in that period which is an above average number, it enables valid comparisons to be made.
  3. The BE results are only compared with the previous GE especially with respect to the change in the vote for candidates of the respective parties.
  4. Only parties that stood candidates in both the preceding GE, the BE and the subsequent GE (for BEs held in the 48th Parliamentary term) are included in the comparison. The percentage of the vote indicated by each party in each electorate by electorate comparison is of the total electorate votes cast in that particular election. The minor party results are just not analyzed but are part of the total vote.
  5. The comparison is with the ELECTORATE vote in the GE analyzed and not the PARTY vote. The Electoral Commission publishes the total votes for each electorate in GEs in two separate categories (Party then Electorate) whereas in a BE, there is no Party vote to count and so only electorate votes count.
  6. The turnout percentages for GEs are calculated from the total number of Electorate votes cast in the GE (please note that in almost all electorates the total number of Party votes cast can differ from the total number of Electorate votes cast – this is because some voters only exercise one of their entitled votes in the GE). This means that the by-election comparison is an apples to apples comparison. Please also note that for ease of comparison of respective party performance, only the party names are recorded whereas GE Electorate and a BE ballots lists the candidates’ names more prominently than the party affiliation. Likewise the reporting of results at www.elections.govt.nz for the Electorate or BE vote, they also features the candidate names prominently.

In order to accurately determine the voter turnout percentage to be calculated, for all the GE results, the total number of enrolled voters for each electorate came from the Electoral Commission’s published number of enrolled voters eligible to vote in that electorate at that election. For the BEs, the total number of enrolled voters for the BE was taken from media kits released for the specific BE by the Electoral Commission. The exception was the Mt Albert BE where no BE total enrolment figure was released in the media kit. In order to approximate that figure, the increase in enrolled voters in Mt Albert between the 2008 and 2011 GEs was halved and then added to the 2008 enrolment total on the premise that the voting population of the electorate was rising slightly over time and that the size of the roll at the time of the BE was somewhat between the roll of the GEs on either side. Given that the roll increased by only 772 voters, this approximation does not mean the voter turnout percentage for the Mt Albert BE  is very far off being 100% accurate.

Thanks to Kiwi in America for the analysis.

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14 Responses to “Guest Post: By-election analysis”

  1. thor42 (780 comments) says:

    National managed to cut Labour’s majority from roughly 5,300 to 4,600.
    Not exactly a disaster for National (or a ringing endorsement for Labour) but then Labour has never let the facts get in the way of a few tons of spin.

    Had Labour managed to balloon their majority to around 7,000 or 8,000 *then* they would have had cause to celebrate.

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  2. YesWeDid (1,003 comments) says:

    ‘Christchurch East is ground zero for residential damage in Christchurch having all of the residential red zone in its boundaries.’

    Only if you pretend the residential red zone areas in the Port Hills don’t exist.

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  3. Nukuleka (79 comments) says:

    Doocey didn’t even mange a smile for his election billboards. He may indeed be a great guy with a ton of political potential but if you look like a sour lemon on your publicity shots then you’re pretty well sunk from the outset. I may prefer his politics but Poto at least LOOKED like a nice person! Things like this may seem superficial but they matter.

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  4. thor42 (780 comments) says:

    All in all, given the *huge* problems and challenges that the people of Canterbury have faced in the last several years, this by-election result was as good as the Nats could have hoped for.
    Labour are all “champagne and celebrations” in public, but in private I suspect that they may well be a bit disappointed that their majority was *cut* by 600, not *increased* by several thousand.
    Sure, the majority is still extremely comfortable, but still…….

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  5. davidp (3,329 comments) says:

    >Labour (and left friendly commentators) have made much of Poto Williams getting 61% of the total vote being a 7% increase from the 54% that Leanne Dalziel got in 2011.

    That’s pretty embarrasing for Dalziel. Twenty three years in parliament including service as a reasonably competent cabinet minister, and she is less popular than an unknown Aucklander.

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  6. Auberon (820 comments) says:

    Would anyone care to theorise why the special/advance vote percentage in this by-election is the highest number of such votes in New Zealand by-election history, despite the overall turnout being a tiny 39%?

    5229 advance or special votes were cast in Christchurch East in the 2011 general election, with turnout of 74.2%. But in the by-election we still get 3241 advance or special votes – 61% of the 2011 general election figure.

    If the number of advance or special votes in the by-election were proportionate to the last general election they’d be a fraction over 2000 votes.

    So what explains this disproportionately high advance and special turnout – as I say, the highest number of advance or special votes in NZ by-election history?

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  7. Colville (1,780 comments) says:

    Thanks to Kiwi in America for the analysis.

    That lad has too much time on his hands….

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  8. kiwi in america (2,336 comments) says:

    Thor42
    You have to be careful comparing by-election and General election majorities because the by-election turnouts are usually so much lower. Labour increased it’s percentage of the total vote from 2011 to the by-election even though the absolute size of the majority is smaller. Your comment about premature celebrations from Labour is correct. With the level of rebuild related dissatisfaction as high as it is right now, Labour should’ve wiped Doocey out far more dramatically than they did. That they only got the same result as Mt Albert is telling.

    YesWeDid
    There is only one residential red ZONE and that is in Chch East – that being an entire area of land near the Avon river where all land in it has been zoned economically unrepairable. There are individual sections all over Christchurch that have been individually zoned red but they are pepper potted in amongst green zoned sections. The largest collection of sections zoned red outside the official residential red zone are indeed in the Port Hills but there is no formal contiguous designated red zone in the Port Hills – and furthermore a number of Port Hills red zoned section owners have challenged CERA and got a revision of their status to green.

    Auberon
    The trend to advanced voting is one that is happening across New Zealand as people cotton on to its convenience. Technically you can only cast an advanced ballot if you are going to be out of your electorate on election day and can’t cast a special vote (usually advanced votes are cast by people who would be overseas at the time of the election). However Labour have seen the tactical advantage the Obama campaign and Democrats in general have been able to leverage with the use of early voting here in the US and I suspect that Labour may have been encouraging people to vote early. I cast an advanced ballot in the 2008 election as I was in NZ a few weeks before the election and I recall having to sign a declaration that I would be unable to cast a ballot on election day.

    Coville
    Too true – I did this over the Thanksgiving holiday when holed up with poor weather and a good backlog work all taken care of!

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  9. MikeG (359 comments) says:

    Short version of the post:
    Doocey wasn’t as bad as Melissa Lee when it comes to performance in a by-election.

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  10. Auberon (820 comments) says:

    Thanks kiwi in amercia – so you don’t think Labour thought it was going to be a closer run thing than it turned out to be and rigged it? ;-)

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  11. bringbackdemocracy (350 comments) says:

    Looking at those figures, the stand out result was the impressive showing by the Conservative party.

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  12. kiwi in america (2,336 comments) says:

    Auberon
    I think that Labour were shocked by the party vote result in Christchurch in general and the loss of Christchurch Central in particular in 2011. Even though they knew that the out-migration post earthquakes was going to be a factor, they weren’t prepared for National to do so well. Cunliffe also knew how damaging Labour’s poor showing in the Mana by-election was in undermining Goff and they were determined to do as well as possible given how bare their cupboard was financially (still is).

    Better than normal by-election results are all about turnout (and a halfway decent candidate) and so they set in motion to identify their supporters still resident in the electorate, use the promise of KiwiAssure to woo floating voters fed up with the EQC/insurers delays with easy to demagogue messaging (the reasons for the slow insurance rebuilds being complex and technical) and poured as much human resource into the GOTV effort. I believe they pushed advance voting as an option as an insurance against poor turnout on the day. Anderton’s a pro at on-the-ground election day efforts and I’m sure the caucus did the same as we did in my days in Labour when fighting by-elections; used caucus members and their tax paid staff and offices and phones to augment the effort in lieu of paid media advertising. Having Dalziel as the newly elected mayor gave The Press a thinly transparent reason to report on her movements and support for Williams in the electorate giving Williams the aura of the heir apparent. Labour also played the expectation game very well – sowing media stories of possible defeat (because of the loss of the 2011 party vote) making even an average result look good.

    When you consider all these efforts, which represented the maximum effort that Labour could mount with nationwide resources (the 500 delegates canvassing was a HUGE assist) and the easy target of the slow rebuild, it was a decidedly average result. But it was enough to win a few news cycles as Labour could rely on the media to report their “great result – National on track for defeat in 2014″ spin. Knowing the insular nature of the left, most of Cunliffe’s inner circle will genuinely see this result as a vindication of his leftward lurch and they will double down. Had National put up a more aggressive and experienced candidate without too much baggage who fought a Parata – Mana style campaign leading to only a meagre lift in Labour’s 2011 vote, the reporting might have been more negative forcing a rethink in policy positioning.

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  13. lolitasbrother (354 comments) says:

    yeah yeah, too many words , and thanks a lot NAT for the help with Christchucrh Central

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  14. Auberon (820 comments) says:

    Thanks kiwi in America; really interesting analysis.

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