HoS Poll

December 15th, 2013 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

An HoS Key Research poll has National on 48%, Labour 40%, Greens 8% and no minor party above 1%. It depends on the exact votes each minor party actually got, but an estimate of the seats would be National 58, Labour 48, Greens 10 and if existing electorates hold Maori 3, Mana 1, UF 1 and ACT 1. So CR 60 seats, CL 59 seats and Maori Party 3 seats.

National will be happy on 48%. Labour will be delighted if they are on 40%. Worth noting that the latest Roy Morgan poll had Labour on 30.5% and Greens on 14.5% so the two are starkly different when it comes to how the left vote is splitting. They both show National around equal with them combined though.

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26 Responses to “HoS Poll”

  1. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (515 comments) says:

    With 500 respondents, this poll will have a high margin of error. Labour is definitely not on 40% for sure.

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  2. Andrew (66 comments) says:

    @Sir C – the difference in the margin of error between a random poll of 500 and a poll of 1,000 is just +/- 1.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. I don’t think anyone can really argue that the difference is due to sample size.

    http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/post-3-of-3-is-a-sample-of-500-or-1000-really-enough/

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  3. Ross12 (926 comments) says:

    I just hope the HoS poll is a true indication of the Green vote because it could show people are waking up to their” anti anything that could be progress” stance as being bad for NZ.

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  4. smttc (638 comments) says:

    What all the polls seem to show these days is the Nats and Labour/Greens have about the same amount of party vote. In other words, a minor party is going to determine who forms the next government. Which means more likely than not we are facing a change of government.

    God help us.

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  5. srylands (301 comments) says:

    The erosion of the soft Green vote, if true, is welcome. What is worrying though is that about 48% of New Zealanders are indicating they would vote for EITHER the Greens or Labour. Given their stated policies this is astonishing. It depresses me that nearly half the adults in New Zealand are attracted to ideas that have been so discredited. I am not alone in planning a 2015 exit. I am sad about this, but also angry that I may need to leave a country that I care about, and would otherwise stay and invest in.

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  6. duggledog (1,102 comments) says:

    Srylands

    Which is why I didn’t buy the MRP shares. I know my countrymen too well!

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  7. kiwi in america (2,321 comments) says:

    This confirms my gut feeling – that Cunliffe’s lurch to the left has merely re-arranged the left’s vote from the Greens to Labour. The CR v CL was about this close under Shearer at times just the Greens were more resurgent. National at 48% if it hold is an excellent result 6 years into its tenure in government. National have barely begun to milk the benefits of all that Cunliffe promised the unions and the left. Should the Conservative merely poll at the level it did in 2011 and Craig gets an electorate seat, they would hold the balance of power – assuming Winston does not make the 5%. NZ First at 1% is unrealisitic and we know he takes equally off Labour and National.

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  8. Yoza (1,341 comments) says:

    srylands (110 comments) says:
    December 15th, 2013 at 12:00 pm

    I am not alone in planning a 2015 exit. I am sad about this, but also angry that I may need to leave a country that I care about, and would otherwise stay and invest in.

    Bye-eeeee!

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  9. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    It will be close. But National needs to project a forward message combined with a good story on the economy. Labour has palways left a mess for the last 50 years. The recovery is too fragile for their profligacy.

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  10. flipper (3,266 comments) says:

    The celebratory yells from the LEFT sound like pre-ejaculation to me.

    FACT-
    It is the economy, stupid.

    FACT
    The books will be heading for surplus by April next
    FACT
    W English has already spoken of May tax cut announcement, probably taking effect October 1.
    FACT
    Other lollies will be dangled
    FACT
    Labour will be up the creek without a paddle because J Key and W English will play the labour WFF and Education loan bribe response.

    PREDICTION:
    Tight but in the end, the Nats et al comfortably. For LLabour/red melons, just the residual smoke from a cigar, nothing more.

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  11. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (515 comments) says:

    Flipper – “FACT: English has already spoken of May tax cut announcement, probably taking effect October 1.”

    He has never said anything about tax cuts….can you be more specific?

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  12. srylands (301 comments) says:

    “Bye-eeeee!”

    That’s right Yoza. You subscribe to the view of The Standard bearers that we can “simply issue more currency” in response to capital flight. All will be well.

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  13. cha (3,524 comments) says:

    I am not alone in planning a 2015 exit. I am sad about this, but also angry that I may need to leave a country that I care about, and would otherwise stay and invest in.

    Hmm, either there’s two of you or you’re a liar.

    yes I looked it up – 15% – but it is 10% in Australia where I live.

    http://thestandard.org.nz/buy-meridian-shares-mrp/#comment-687282

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  14. peterwn (2,932 comments) says:

    But see:
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11172690

    “Labour gaining votes as National ‘ignore’ referendum results”

    Never mind that the poll shows National to have 48% of the vote – now that would spoil a good story.

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  15. RightNow (6,334 comments) says:

    “Never mind that the poll shows National to have 48% of the vote – now that would spoil a good story.”
    Not at all, the story is even better since Labour’s gain is from the Greens.
    There’ll be blood spilt among the left before the election is held.
    Buy popcorn futures.

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  16. srylands (301 comments) says:

    “Hmm, either there’s two of you or you’re a liar.”

    I’m neither. I am a dual citizen. I split my time between Melbourne and the Kapiti Coast. My preference is to make New Zealand my home for a variety of reasons. But that preference has its limits.

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  17. flipper (3,266 comments) says:

    Sir Cullen’s Sidekick (374 comments) says:

    December 15th, 2013 at 1:31 pm

    Flipper – “FACT: English has already

    ****
    Actually last week when commenting on fiscal updates. Of course he had a caveat about needing to also reduce debt.

    He did not stoop to your namesake’s “I’ve spent it all”, or “we won; you lost. Suck on that.”

    So, side kick, you will be drop kicked for at least another four years, as GG famously said.

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  18. RightNow (6,334 comments) says:

    Love it flipper:

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  19. OneTrack (1,951 comments) says:

    Yoza – “Bye-eeeee!”

    And take their businesses and jobs with them? Is that your approach Yoza? Really?

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  20. bc (1,251 comments) says:

    As I mentioned in the Bennett vs Rankin post – I think it is time for Key and Craig to have a cup of tea!
    ACT are dead in the water and it is not looking too flash for the Maori Party either (also what guarantee is there that the Maori Party will stick with National).

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  21. peterwn (2,932 comments) says:

    bc – No need for stitch-up’s until the last minute. The electorate may have dismissed Colin as a fruit-cake by then – and supporting Colin by for example giving him a clear run in a seat could back-fire.

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  22. thor42 (757 comments) says:

    I don’t believe the 40% support for Labour for a second.

    Labour have been hovering around 30-32% forever. I agree with Sir Cullen’s Sidekick – given that this is a poll of only 500 people and given that Roy Morgan has Labour on 30.5%, this is a rogue poll.

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  23. burt (7,083 comments) says:

    Labour on 40% … They will be calling rogue poll over at the standard.

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  24. Shazzadude (465 comments) says:

    There’s no way Labour and National are on a combined 88%.

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  25. hj (5,674 comments) says:

    Dealahunty Alert!

    Last week Metiria and I hosted an education forum at the Beehive on great ideas and practices in the public education system. There was a strong critique of the Governments privitisation agenda as well as some excellent examples of what the public system can do and must do to support all our students to access a quality education.
    //
    The second panel was on Te Tiriti and cultural strength and opened by Dr Ann Milne of Kia Aroha College who challenged us to recognise the issue of mainstreaming of Maori and Pacific kids actually means “white streaming”. Her public school in South Auckland is a celebration of warrior scholars and embraces critical thinking as the core of education.

    Prof Richard Manning and Lynne Te Aika from Otautahi/ Christchurch described their work in place-based education in order to create not only eco literacy, but the vital Te Tiriti-based relationships between schools and manawhenua hapu. Richard has challenged history teachers to move past the “Tudors and the Stewarts” and teach our own equally combative and challenging history.

    We also heard from Dr Jess Hutchings from Te Wahanga at NZCER who spoke about their research which is from a Māori methodology and how whanau Māori want their tamariki to have an education which uplifts their rangatiratanga, Te Reo Māori and their moemoea (dreams) as a diverse and powerful culture.

    http://blog.greens.org.nz/2013/12/13/national-climate-policy-4-united-kingdom/

    “critical thinking as the core of education” .. in a John Pilger sort of way?

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  26. Manolo (12,612 comments) says:

    …who spoke about their research which is from a Māori methodology and how whanau Māori want their tamariki to have an education which uplifts their rangatiratanga, Te Reo Māori and their moemoea (dreams) as a diverse and powerful culture.

    So much crap, so little sense! No doubt Delahunty is completely deranged, a true lunatic.

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