An HoS Key Research poll has National on 48%, Labour 40%, Greens 8% and no minor party above 1%. It depends on the exact votes each minor party actually got, but an estimate of the seats would be National 58, Labour 48, Greens 10 and if existing electorates hold Maori 3, Mana 1, UF 1 and ACT 1. So CR 60 seats, CL 59 seats and Maori Party 3 seats.
National will be happy on 48%. Labour will be delighted if they are on 40%. Worth noting that the latest Roy Morgan poll had Labour on 30.5% and Greens on 14.5% so the two polls are starkly different when it comes to how the left vote is splitting. They both show National around equal with them combined though.Tags: Polls