Waikato seats

January 13th, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The Waikato Times reports:

The two Hamilton electorates – Hamilton East and Hamilton West – had in the past acted as “swing seats”, changing hands between Labour and National many times. David Bennett has been incumbent in Hamilton East since 2005, while fellow National MP Tim Macindoe has held Hamilton West since 2008.

Mr Macindoe comfortably saw off a challenge from Labour list MP Sue Moroney in the 2011 election, and a rematch looks likely.

Hamilton East is no longer a swing seat and I’m not sure Hamilton West is either.

In 2005 David Bennett won Hamilton East with a 5,298 majority. In 2008 it increased to 8,820 and in 2011 was 8,275. That’s not marginal or swinging.

Tim Macindoe won Hamilton West in 2008 with a 1,618 majority which is marginal. You normally lose votes when in Government, but his majority in 2011 increased to 4,418. I’d be surprised to see any change there.

Some electorates in the wider Waikato and surrounding regions could prove pivotal, particularly Rotorua, Taupo and East Coast, which had also been home to alternating Labour and National MPs in recent years.

Majorities are 7,357, 14,115 and 4,774 respectively. Also not very marginal.

However others, like Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Taranaki-King Country and Tauranga are seen as safe National seats.

Majorities of 17.760, 14,198, 15,089 and 17,264 respectively. Also Coromandel on 12,740.

The reality is that the Waikato Region is not a very competitive one in terms of electorates. National holds every single seat and is likely to continue to do so.

 

 

No tag for this post.

15 Responses to “Waikato seats”

  1. flash2846 (287 comments) says:

    The Waikato Times should be held accountable for such misinformation. Clearly they have an agenda. This is not acceptable!

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. lazza (381 comments) says:

    Yep the “North” is pretty damn Blue. I can’t see Cunner’s mob cutting much ice up here … so where then? GO figger.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. PaulL (5,987 comments) says:

    Mumble, who blogs about electoral matters on The Australian, talks about a sophomore surge. Basically when you get elected you’re an unknown, you scrape in. But the next election you have name recognition, you’ve probably done some good works etc. You get the benefit of incumbency. So an electorate that is marginal when you win it often becomes safe once you have it, and stays so until the candidate changes.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    In the UK first time incumbency is reckoned to be worth 2% against swing.

    After that it fades quickly.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. tvb (4,430 comments) says:

    On provisional boundaries Rotorua will lose Kawerau and gain all of Te Puke. That makes it safer for National. The Waikato region has always been strong for National and that looks likely to continue Labour might win East Cape at some stage. But Sue Maroney does not ever seem to win a seat yet the Labour Party persists with her. Long may that continue.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. big bruv (13,929 comments) says:

    Good luck to any of the Labour low life who think they are going to take the seat of Taupo from Louise Upston. They might (on a very good day) get their deposit back but that is about it.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. BeaB (2,125 comments) says:

    The economic news is good and that will keep the Waikato blue.
    David Bennett has done a masterful job of chairing the transport select committee – and the region has felt the benefits with new roads and highways.
    One day employers might realise just an hour or so down the road from Auckland are all the conditions they need for their businesses – with reasonably priced housing, good schools and tertiary institutions, excellent infrastructure and a booming economy.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. big bruv (13,929 comments) says:

    Something else to consider is that the people of the greater Waikato will be ever thankful to this government for routing the new highway away from the shit hole that is Ngaruawahia.

    Not having to drive through that dump would be enough to keep me voting blue for the rest of my life. With any luck that beneficiary infested town will shrivel up and die, the people who exist (you could not call being in that place ‘living’) there forced to move away and do something radical like find jobs.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. RRM (9,933 comments) says:

    Big Bruv –

    Back when driving between Rotorua and Auckland was part of my life, I always took the bypass from Hamilton that went through Gordonton and came back onto SH1 at Taupiri… no Ngaruawahia required :-)

    No Taniwhas either…

    But where would the cousins live for Hamiltonians to get released on bail to, without Ngaruawahia?

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Whaleoil (767 comments) says:

    You are seeing the Moroney Effect in action.

    Every National MP in the Waikato secretly wishes that Sue Moroney will stand against them because in every election she has stood the incumbent has increased their majority.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    “Tim Macindoe won Hamilton West in 2008 with a 1,618 majority which is marginal. You normally lose votes when in Government, but his majority in 2011 increased to 4,418. I’d be surprised to see any change there.”

    Three out of the last four first-term governments have achieved positive swings in their first re-election (Labour 1987, Labour 2002, National 2011), so I don’t think “you normally lose votes when in government” really applies here. Also, sophomore electorate MPs tend to do well-sophomore electorate MPs went 11-4 at the last election in terms of a majority increase (9 National MPs, 2 Labour MPs) or 14-4 if we include by-election winners from the previous term.

    I forsee National winning all the aforementioned seats, only Hamilton West and East Coast are remotely winnable for Labour of the above. Taupo moved from marginal Labour to very safe National when Cambridge was added to the seat in 2008, and Cambridge will remain part of the electorate.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    Whaleoil: “You are seeing the Moroney Effect in action.

    Every National MP in the Waikato secretly wishes that Sue Moroney will stand against them because in every election she has stood the incumbent has increased their majority.”

    Not quite, Lindsay Tisch’s majority was reduced from 13,333 votes in 1999 to just 1,621 against Sue Moroney in 2002.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    @Shazzadude “I don’t think “you normally lose votes when in government” really applies here.”

    It depends, I don’t think you can count the 2011 like you did. Sure National increased its vote share, but the government isn’t just national. The parties that form the government got 51.84% in 2008, this fell to 50.38% in 2011. This is reflected in the smaller majority.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    I don’t think it’s entirely fair to attach the government support parties, they had their own internal issues-I doubt many see Hone Harawira’s fallout with the Maori Party or ACT’s internal squabbles as a direct reflection on the performance of John Key. If we do measure it that way however, Colin Craig’s 2.6% would almost certainly have been in the government’s pile had Colin Craig won Rodney.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. Whaleoil (767 comments) says:

    Colin Craig was never going to win Rodney and came a distant second, he sure as hell won’t win it now. Even if he does use more of his dodgy polls.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote