Latest poll

February 23rd, 2014 at 6:11 pm by David Farrar

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

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61 Responses to “Latest poll”

  1. Duxton (581 comments) says:

    Excellent poll result, and analysis by DPF. I don’t think there is too much chance of National becoming complacent: the Cunliffe-Norman cabal will produce enough stupidity to keep Nat MPs focussed.

    BBQ at Jacinda’s, next Saturday.

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  2. thor42 (918 comments) says:

    Good stuff! A very promising poll!

    What a pity that the good people who seem to have defected from Labour to the Nats have been replaced by people defecting from the Greens to Labour.

    NZ First under 5 percent – good to see.

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  3. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    It’s a rogue poll. It has to be. They don’t poll cellphones, they are always biased towards National, and it just ain’t bloody fair.

    MickySavage (who was right about Labour holding up):

    Latest Colmar Brunton is out. It claims National is up 6% to 51%, Labour is unchanged on 34%, Greens are down 5% to 8%, NZ First down 1% to 3%, the conservatives are on 1% as is the Maori Party.

    The poll appears to be a rogue. I do not know why National should benefit from Green vote.

    Three polls can’t be believed, wait until the next one.

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  4. duggledog (1,358 comments) says:

    As I just wrote on GD, Sir Cullen’s SIdekick, please tell me again how, come November, we are going to see a change in government? And why you have been banging on about it for so long.

    The campaign hasn’t started, the lollies haven’t been promised and yet National can govern alone on these numbers. I don’t think it’s going to change much before the end of the year. The Left are f***ed, and they did it all themselves.

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  5. tas (595 comments) says:

    Excellent news. Keep up the good work National.

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  6. tuesday88 (11 comments) says:

    That is simply a stunning rise for National. It would be great if My Key doesn’t have to rely on Mr “I just make shit up for the hell of it” (Winston First) or someone who believes legalisation of drugs is a good idea (WRONG MESSAGE TO YOUTH JAMIE!!!!!!).

    No time for arrogance either, as it is just a poll.

    Possibly the reason why there has been zero reaction to the baby bribe is because most people are completely sick and tired of being bribed with their own money.

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  7. slightlyrighty (2,496 comments) says:

    Key’s response to the poll on the news was very measured and careful. Cunliffe was grinning like a moron.

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  8. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (788 comments) says:

    duggledog – This is a rogue poll. Labour is steady on 34%, Greens on election night will get 10% and NZ First will be 6% and with help from Mana and Maori – Cunliffe will be crowned as the King of NZ. Don’t dance around too much.

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  9. RF (1,272 comments) says:

    Yes good news for National. Cunliffe is toast and I still believe the Caucus will panic within several months. Grant will be interim leader. I am off to kill a goat to read the entrails.

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  10. smttc (692 comments) says:

    Duggledog, Sir Cullen’s Sidekick is a troll. He sees his job as ensuring National is not complacent about the upcoming election by pretending to bat for the other side.

    It’s a bit tedious. But don’t take him seriously.

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  11. mandk (821 comments) says:

    “Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was”

    That’s correct.

    Shearer was basically a likeable bloke, but totally useless. Cunliffe is unlikeable, and is totally clueless. Gone by Easter?

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  12. nasska (10,674 comments) says:

    Conservatives down 0.3%. If they are going to reverse this trend then Colin Craig will end up suing the milkman for publicity.

    Chapman Tripp are hiring & putting on a night shift. :)

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  13. duggledog (1,358 comments) says:

    Mind you. It’s rather scary that even now, with Norman’s Muldoonist policies, Turei’s expensive jackets, Cunliffe’s house, callow attitude and embarrassingly inept policies – even now, this cabal can still produce well over a third of New Zealanders as their voting base.

    I’ve always thought that Labour rely on tribal voters who will vote for them no matter what. In the deep recesses of their cortexes is that message that dad told them ‘Labour always looks after the working man!’

    Sure they do.

    Suffer in ya jocks The Standard! & that other low rent one Martin Bradbury has

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  14. Manolo (13,375 comments) says:

    Let’s put the boot in the socialists now that they are down. Enjoy the moment.

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  15. Scott1 (448 comments) says:

    They just didn’t get that the baby bonus was a negative. Maybe they just felt that they had no other policy that could make a splash.

    I suppose they were already committed to it but it only works if National makes a mistake and starts going on about “baby bonus will encourage poor people to have more children!” but National clearly has better strategists than Labour lately and they played it right.

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  16. Michael (896 comments) says:

    I thought Cunliffe’s baby payment announcement was so badly mishandled, and the Greens Solar Panel loans were unappealling but this! Excuse me.

    Bwahahahahahahahaahaha!

    Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

    Bwahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

    That is all.

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  17. Scott1 (448 comments) says:

    RF,
    If so Grant and Labour will get buried in the election. A late change to Grant Robertson and their results will probably resemble national in the 2002. They would be fools to do that… but I can’t guarantee they are not fools.

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  18. kiwi in america (2,436 comments) says:

    The big takeaway in this poll is the massive collapse of the Green vote. 5 percentage points is an almost 40% drop in their standing in a single poll – I would venture to say that that is unprecedented for the Greens. For the first time Russell Norman was on the receiving end of some withering press coverage for his corrupt suggestion that a Labour/Greens government would ignore any court ruling and refuse to extradite Kim Dotcom laying bare his blatant and irrational anti Americanism. For a party that loves to play on its virginal political purity, it was a spectacular own goal as this poll result attests. The baby bonus bribe convinced enough of those Green supporters that Labour is left wing enough.

    Likewise for National to shoot up 6 points in a single poll has few historical precedents outside of National’s meteoric rise after Brash’s Orewa speech I’d venture to say. As David says, this was all pinched off Labour after Cunliffe’s fortnight of horrors. Given the state of panic that the recent rash of polls is causing in Labour’s ranks, I’m picking that the fact that they took votes off the Greens to hold their own after Cunliffe’s pratfalls will be seen by their strategists as a ‘it could’ve been worse’ result.

    The truth is that Labour will never be the dominant opposition party that it was in the 90′s that enabled Clark to rely on the Greens votes but shut their nuttiness out of power. It is dawning on middle NZ that the Greens absolutely will have Cabinet positions if a Labour government is elected.

    Finally, various people have posted of Cunliffe being gone within months, BBQs at Jacinda Adern’s or a Jones or even Robertson led caucus revolt. Everyone forgets the changes to Labour’s Constitution mean that no Labour caucus can ever roll their leader again. Even if the caucus loses confidence in Cunliffe and triggers a vote, all it will do is trigger a new party wide vote with the unions and the party membership weighing in. Both groups solidly backed Cunliffe and hold the balance of power now as he was the most pleasing candidate for their left wing sensibilities and nothing has changed. As Matthew Hooten says in his NBR column http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/does-labour-have-plan-b-dc-152138, there is no Plan B and Labour is stuck with him.

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  19. wat dabney (3,671 comments) says:

    Shearer was the nearest thing Labour had to a normal Kiwi, and at least he had the decency to look ashamed as he increasingly resorted to lies and spin.

    Cunliffe just creeps people out.

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  20. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    Michael: National 51 versus Labour+Greens 34+8=42

    In the last Colmar in October National 45, Labour+Greens 34+13=47

    In the previous Colmar in September National 47, Labour+Greens 34+12=46

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  21. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    KIA: “there is no Plan B and Labour is stuck with him.”

    Plan B? They tried plan G, that failed. Then they tried plan S, that was worse. They are now on plan C and that looks shaky.

    It’s debatable plan J or plan R would be a hell of a lot better.

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  22. dishy (224 comments) says:

    I wonder if Gower is somewhat rueful over his recent “Winston the Kingmaker” outburst. Perhaps this latest poll will teach him restraint.

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  23. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    Micky was confident earlier today, now he sounds devastated:

    Possible but I do not see why the Green vote would go to Labour.

    This is a rogue. Polling is getting more and more random.

    Ah, no. Maybe it’s excuses for unfavourable polls that are getting more and more random.

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  24. Reid (15,947 comments) says:

    It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

    I tend to agree this is probably a rogue. It’s so unusual and counter-intuitive to have the balance shifting from the Gweens straight to National that I’d have to question the question design.

    I’m not well familiar with the Gween’s base demographics but we all know about the Remuera housewives who care more about the enviwonment than the economy and I wonder if this result isn’t comprised of many to most of them showing their disgust at Wussel and Metewia’s recent lacklustre performance and returning to their former homeland which their husbands have always inhabited. No way would that dem ever vote Liarbore.

    But is that a 5-6% shift even bearing in mind it’s really only 2.5-3%? Hard to believe if so but if it is, it underlines a critical weakness in the Gween base, doesn’t it. Which is surely good news for the Blue-Green rump. Too bad their senior brain is Smith, whom I like personally but don’t rate very highly for effectiveness. It really needs someone like a National version of Hague to make some real traction there.

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  25. dime (9,439 comments) says:

    first of all… BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA

    second, the reporter was giving the results through gritted teeth.

    “the govt will have been helped by the economy and the weather”

    ffs, imagine the economy if labour/greens/dung/maori/hone/nzfirst were in. there would be an earthquake levy for a start, high taxes, printed money.. national deserve some credit for showing restraint and letting kiwi businesses/ employers do their thing

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  26. alloytoo (432 comments) says:

    Finally, the honeymoon is over for the greens, in strident opposition they have been revealed for what they truly are:

    Power hungry communists.

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  27. adze (1,864 comments) says:

    The word “kingmaker” will always rankle whenever I hear it. I’ll be glad when The Shit finally retires from politics.

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  28. holysheet (268 comments) says:

    Why wouldn’t the green vote go to national?

    I read somewhere last week that the bulk of green supporter are actually of the ponsonby chardonay set. 35% of greens are of this demographic. It would not take much for these flaky wannabes to shift their vote to national.

    The clincher was the revelation by wussel of his links with .com and his threat to overturn the judicial process in the event of the courts granting the yanks extradition of .com

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  29. convicted radical (64 comments) says:

    So, if Nat polling is aligned; chances of an early rather than late election?

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  30. srylands (386 comments) says:

    Yes it is good news but we are a long way from the election.

    The reaction at The Standard is just so so funny. Absolute denial. Check this out:

    “colmar/national have just released another piece of propaganda which has got all the wing-nuts going from simply being heavy breathing porn watchers to being true believers that displays of public masterbation [sic] will enable national to govern alone after the vote in 2014…National heading for the prize of being the largest opposition since the beginning of MMP”

    Right so Colmar has conspired with National to release “propaganda”. I said they would become more and more weird as this happened.

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  31. Colville (2,081 comments) says:

    The great thing about this poll is that the greens always poll higher than they actuall get on the day….

    oh dear me what a pity never mind ;-)

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  32. srylands (386 comments) says:

    “Why wouldn’t the green vote go to national?”

    Good question. I don’t know if anyone has done research on Green supporters. My guess is it is made up of:

    1 – hard core support – 5-6.5%

    2 – prosperous Pakeha who think the Greens make the flowers grow (2-4%) – these will flee if they ever stop drinking sav long enough to actually read the policies.

    3 – confused young people (2-3%)

    Many of (2) could switch to National if they wake up that the Greens are more interested in social engineering than the flowers.

    I have met Green supporters in all 3 factions. I am less confident on my guess at their proportions. It would be v interesting to see someone do some empirical work on the profile of Green supporters.

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  33. martinh (1,155 comments) says:

    Labour are morons for not knowing that that policy would be unpopular.
    Definitely not ready to govern. The current crowd isnt either but the best of a bad lot spring to mind

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  34. stigie (908 comments) says:

    They dont seem to like you at all over at the Strandard there Srylands…

    You go there and debate with some purpose and give them some sound advise,

    and they think you are taking the piss. No wonder they are a sad lot !~

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  35. srylands (386 comments) says:

    “This must be a rogue poll”

    Well it might be. That is the reaction at The Standard – in fact it is becoming extreme cognitive dissonance. So polls that show an unfolding defeat are portrayed as the opposite.

    A number of commercial air disasters in the last 50 years have been caused by pilots refusing to believe their instruments. “It must be a rogue reading” (No, actually, the plane really is about to become inverted). Of course most times the instruments are right and the plane crashes.

    Maybe it is time to believe the instruments.

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  36. srylands (386 comments) says:

    “They dont seem to like you at all over at the Strandard there Srylands…”

    No, and most of the time I have been polite and measured :-) One of them recently said he planned to publicly hang me after the revolution. It was enough for even Lynne Prentice to halt proceedings in my favour :-)

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  37. hmmokrightitis (1,511 comments) says:

    srylands, this is what has been fascinating me for a while now. The left, who generally like to hold themselves out as thinking and caring, and more ‘intellectual’ than the right (were all money hungry haters and wreckers), find these polls “unbelievable” and “rogue” – for the simple reason that it doesn’t fit their world view. How can the people be so dumb? Surely they can see we mean well, were so much better???

    Yes, maybe ‘the people’ can see, hence the polls…

    Its been like this since JK took over the shop, and its lovely to watch. The intellectual dishonesty is laughable – if the polls had swung the other way, would MSavage be calling it a rogue? At best he would be celebrating cautiously, at worst bleating from the roof tops. Yes Mickey, you will read this. And you know who I am. I laugh at you you pompous twat. As srylands said, its time to believe the instruments. Or keep pushing the nose even further up, the stall isn’t far away…

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  38. tvb (4,208 comments) says:

    The big drop in the Green vote is significant. It seems that Russel Norman May have cost them votes by copying up to KDC and Turei wearing those expensive clothes lecturing people on poverty may have harmed her. Losing about 1/3 of their support will cause them to think where they are going.

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  39. Keeping Stock (10,100 comments) says:

    I have no doubt whatsoever that Norman’s secret visits to Dotcom and his readiness to overturn a court decision that hasn’t even been made yet has scared the horses. The facade of the “nice” Dr Norman has been stripped away, and the real Russel Norman has been exposed. And the public does not like what it sees.

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  40. srylands (386 comments) says:

    I guess I think about myself in the (hopefully hypothetical) situation where the combined polling for Labour/Greens was above 50% – so say Labour had cracked 40% (which BTW The Standard repeatedly trumpeted as realistic late last year), and the Greens were on 12%…I would be saying the game is up. Indeed, I freely admit to fearing such a scenario unfolding about now.

    What I would NOT be doing is denying it was happening and directing mad invective at everyone.

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  41. calendar girl (1,175 comments) says:

    @ srylands 8:26 – Thoughtful analysis, so thanks. In your first category (hard core support – 5.0-6.5%) what do you personally mean by “hard core support”? Would you believe it to be:
    - hard core environmental / ecological?
    - hard core politically left / fringe communist?
    - a mix of those two and, if so, in roughly what proportions?

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  42. srylands (386 comments) says:

    ” what do you personally mean by “hard core support”? ”

    You are right about the make up. I just don’t know how many of them are (1) hard environmentalists and how many are (2) fringe communists. Maybe 2/3 rds for (1) and 1/3 rd for (2)? I am guessing the second group has become larger since R Norman came on board.

    I wonder whether the Greens have ever conducted any research on the profiles of their supporters?

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  43. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    …or their MPs?

    There must be some overlap between socialism and the environment. There seems to be a strong belief that a socialist approach is essential to save the world from climate change devastation. And this isn’t an exaggeration, I’ve seen a number of people including elected representatives who think this with a passion.

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  44. RightNow (6,668 comments) says:

    It’s cos John Key is mates with Whaleoil innit.

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  45. Duncan Brown (16 comments) says:

    Interesting comment on Curiablog, that the Maori Party hold the balance of power. Just an old template not updated, or have I missed something? 64 seats would suggest to me there is no balance of power.

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  46. tas (595 comments) says:

    I wouldn’t read too much into the greens dropping to 8%. Polls have a few percent of random error, regardless of how well they are performed. Roy Morgan had them on 12% and Ipsos on 10%. But it’s fair to say that they aren’t riding high.

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  47. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    It’s likely National would drop below a majority but on current polling there’s a good chance they will have multiple options.

    Collated excuses from one Standard thread – The poll is rogue because…

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  48. Crusader (279 comments) says:

    Re: “overlap between socialism and the environment…”

    Environmentalists believe animals are all good and people are all bad for the planet (Gaia or whatever). “4 legs good, 2 legs bad”, that is their version of virtue that they spout. They are all frightfully upset that we do not all want to live in an agrarian commune. (We will leave aside their rank hypocrisy for now, considering that few of them actually follow their own prescription.)
    Socialists believe in the co-operative or state ownership of the means of production in an industrialised economy, and the redistribution of capital wealth.
    There is an obvious incongruity between the two, which most people realise. Which is why the Greens voters are mainly aged hippies who smoked too much wacky baccy in their youth, or students who have never encountered anything even remotely resembling the real world yet.

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  49. Pete George (22,850 comments) says:

    tas – the margin of error with 95% confidence at 8% is +/- 1.68%

    That means there’s a 95% chance Greens are between 6.32% and 9.68%

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  50. Nostalgia-NZ (4,911 comments) says:

    It’s fairly hard to avoid that when the Maori vote was with Labour they polled higher. National has had part of that vote favouring it for 2 elections through the Maori Party. Quite probably that vote will be more influenced by Shane Jones in this election, both on a voter and a party level. The Maori Party could shift its position in favour of Labour because of Shane Jones and his appeal across the board while possibly bringing votes back to Labour from the Maori Party. So Curiablog may well be right.

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  51. Duncan Brown (16 comments) says:

    Thanks Nostalgia and apologies if I just down voted your comment with my fat fingers. John Key certainly proved himself a smart operator when he cooperated with both Act and the Maori Party. It will be interesting to see if with a closer poll on the day they might change sides again to join the five-headed monster. On the current poll I can only see it would be in their interest to stick with the winners.

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  52. questions (168 comments) says:

    RF Yesterday:
    “I have heard a whisper that the next poll due out has a 2 in front of the number. Cunliffe is dead man walking.”

    Poll result today: 27%.

    What a clown.

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  53. kiwi in america (2,436 comments) says:

    I think it is fair to say that the CB/One News polls have consistently overstated National’s support just as the Roy Morgan polls have often over estimated support on the left (plus they are subject to unusually high levels of volatility) and so I can see why the die hards at The Standard would be in full denial mode. However there is no denying the trends evident when we average all the major polls and they are:
    1 – National s creeping back up in the high 40′s and that with the wasted vote under MMP is government territory
    2 – Cunliffe has not been able to lift Labour any higher than Shearer could and Labour really needs to be in the high 30′s to be in with a chance
    3 – The Greens 2011 result will be their peak. They rely so much on low information young voters (the demographic cohort least likely to vote) and that leads to them garnering 2% less than they poll before a General Election. As the possibility of them being part of a Labour coalition government became a possibility, for all our fulminating about the left leaning bias in the media (which is real), enough of the Press Gallery have begun to press the Greens and expose their hypocrisy (Turei’s spat over expensive jackets etc)
    4 – Contrary to the naysayers on the left, ACT is likely to survive and is odds on to at least hold Epsom. Ditto Peter Dunne who has survived the fiasco of his Vance infatuation and is again odds on to hold Ohariu. That’s 2 votes for Key.
    5 – The question marks surround the likely success of the Conservatives and NZ First and the fate of the Maori Party. With National polling higher there will be less pressure to do a deal with Colin Craig (the only plausible deal being McCullly moves from East Coast Bay’s to the list and Key nods at ECB voters to support CC). Winston should grandstand (and lie) enough to drag his sorry arse across the 5% threshold but still is more likely to play 2nd fiddle to a Key led government than 3rd fiddle behind the Greens whom he despises. I’m picking the Maori Party end up with 2 – Flavell and one from the list.

    There are now 4 trends that play in National’s favour:
    1 – The economic tailwind will strengthen through 2014 greatly assisting the “don’t put the recovery at risk” meme
    2 – Cunliffe’s flaws are now playing out nicely and won’t go away and Labour are stuck with him
    3 – The media, especially TVNZ, after the Taurima fiasco will try harder to play election coverage more even handedly
    4 – Kim Dotcom’s influence on the body politic in NZ is over and the parties who cuddled up to him will rue the day

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  54. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Who the hell wants to be governed by wierdos, deviants, and losers? Wait till Labour lose, Cunliffe will get the arse, there will be a rainbow direction, the death knell of Labour!

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  55. Colville (2,081 comments) says:

    Who the hell wants to be governed by wierdos, deviants, and losers?

    You mean, politicians? :-)

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  56. Nostalgia-NZ (4,911 comments) says:

    Duncan Brown, you are right in one breath you could say the minor parties are ‘trapped’ by JK while on the other that they are being pragmatic and understand which side the bread is buttered on – an uneasy on paper arrangement but highly functional, probably masterful.

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  57. wreck1080 (3,731 comments) says:

    Labour are unable to shake the ghost of Helen Clark.

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  58. ShawnLH (3,426 comments) says:

    A couple of elections ago my father in law said he was thinking of voting Greens, on the basis that people who just want to clean up the environment couldn’t be too bad. I asked him if he had ever read the details of their policies and he said no.

    I wonder how many people think/vote like that?

    I encouraged him to go to their site and read through all of their polices. He switched back to Labour after that, and he’s voting National this election.

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  59. ShawnLH (3,426 comments) says:

    This is good news.

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/richard-prebble-returns-act-key-role-ck-152312

    I stopped voting ACT after Hide too over. But the new leader seems on to it and Prebs having some influence will help steer the party in the right direction. I may resurrect my membership if they come out with some good policies.

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  60. srylands (386 comments) says:

    Frome “Tracey” at The Standard:

    “Green support has been unlikely to drop due to a couple of meetings with DotCom. I speak as a Green supporter in that. It hasn’t changed my view of the party.”

    I know it is slightly childish, but I just find it no end of fun reading these. :-) :-)

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  61. Duxton (581 comments) says:

    More crap from Andrea Vance:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/9755427/Labour-limping-Greens-in-freefall-poll

    The best line: “Mr Cunliffe suffered from a lack of exposure in the last month, dropping two points in the preferred prime minister stakes to 10 per cent.:

    Really?????? :-)

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