Final boundaries – winners and losers

April 17th, 2014 at 12:52 pm by Jadis

Well the final boundaries are out.  There are some changes (as there always are) and a couple are quite significant.

Winners:

, Auckland Central – Having won and held Auckland Central by less than a thousand votes in 08 and 11 Nikki will be overjoyed to see ALL of Grey Lynn move into Mount Albert.  Grey Lynn was Jacinda’s territory and I am pretty sure she owns a house there so she will now be living outside of the electorate that she says she will contest in this year’s election.  Nikki is probably sitting on a conservative majority of 2000 but it is useful to remember that with strategic voting and the like locally, and the high profile of the seat, that it will still be a hard race.

, Christchurch Central – I am really pleased for Nicky as she was gutted when the provisional boundaries came out as they made it a strong red seat. There must have been some fascinating discussion at the Commission table because it is a crazy shaped seat – how many legs does it have?  Nicky only won the seat by 47 votes so holding Christchurch Central was always going to be extremely tough.  Big chunks of red vote have been cut out of the electorate so Christchurch Central is back in play for both parties.  Still too close to call but certainly gone in Nats favour compared to the provisionals.

, Hamilton West – Hamilton is unique as it is the only urban centre held by the Nats .  Similar boundaries to the provisionals means that by crossing the river MacIndoe has gained some strong blue areas in a high growth zone.  This seat should get stronger as more development occurs.  Tim’s majority may get as high as 5000-6000 this year.

, Waimakariri – While there are no changes since the provisional Waimakariri is well and truly one of the most marginal seats in the country.  The electorate already had a big party vote in Nats favour but has been pretty popular there.  With Kate Wilkinson retiring Cosgrove would have been hoping to regain his seat but the boundaries haven’t been so helpful for him.  Wilkinson’s very thin majority is expected to climb just into four figures – not a big jump but it matters when a race is as tight as this one.

Losers:

Ruth Dyson, Port Hills – Dyson is the biggest loser in this boundary review.  Her majority has been reversed with the Nats stronghold of Halswell moving into the seat, and Anderton’s old stomping ground of Sydenham moving into Christchurch Central.  Dyson will have a real battle to hold this, even with the Nats putting in a new candidate.  How winnable the seat is very much depends on the strength of the Nat candidate, but a good candidate could take the seat with a 2000 majority.  I’d be gutted if I was Dyson as Pete Hodgson (who did the boundaries for Labour) is a good mate of hers.  Perhaps this is Labour’s new (poor) strategy of retiring MPs.

, Hutt South – This is the surprise of the final boundaries.  Mallard has gained all of the  Western Hills (good Nat territory) and lost super red areas of Naenae and Rimutaka. Labour should have been able to stop this occurring but appear to have put up no fight.  Mallard should be furious with his party for failing to keep Hutt South a real red seat.  Why didn’t Hodgson fight hard for Mallard?  Was it a directive from on high?  Realistically, Mallard should hold the seat but he’ll be working hard for it and never should have been put in this position. I expect Mallard’s majority to be pegged down a few.

, Maungakiekie – Labour were grumpy in 2008 when Sam took one of ‘their’ red seats in Maungakiekie, so they will no doubt be pleased that the blue booths have almost all been taken out of Maungakiekie.  Beaumont would be silly to think her win is a foregone conclusion as Sam will throw everything into his beloved electorate and is able to cross party divides for electorate support.  This seat is too close to call.  Another true marginal.

Cunliffe and Labour – Labour have racked up few gains, and have taken significant hits in Christchurch, the Hutt Valley, Hamilton and Auckland.  In Maungakiekie where Labour locals organised a large number of submissions they’ve made headway but they could have been similarly organised elsewhere and chose not to be. That poor organisation has put a number of Labour MPs at serious risk.  At this rate, Labour will have no provincial seats (Tamati, you are dreaming in Rotorua with another Nat stronghold (Te Puke) going into Rotorua) and are fighting from behind in the marginal seats. Where was the leadership from Cunliffe, Coatsworth, Barnett and the hierarchy to stop this happening?  Overall, a fail for Labour.

 

 

 

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40 Responses to “Final boundaries – winners and losers”

  1. alex Masterley (1,490 comments) says:

    Bloody hell. Grey Lynn moving to in Mt Albert?
    There is a bloody great motorway between us in Mt Albert and Grey Lynn.
    it is either shoring up David Shearers vote or foot tripping jacinda.

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  2. iMP (2,231 comments) says:

    If this were FPP, fascinating, but its MMP, so who cares?

    I hadn’t heard David Carter was retiring in Port Hills.

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  3. Jadis (147 comments) says:

    iMP- agree that party vote is what matters but the electoral boundaries certainly matter to the major parties. The list can be a fickle place, whereas holding an electorate provides some certainty.

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  4. thor42 (903 comments) says:

    Excellent stuff! Thanks for this really good summary of the changes Jadis!

    This is yet more good news for the Nats. If the Nats keep the ship steady for the next few months they should not only win this year but have a very good chance in 2017 as well.

    It is very hard to see Labour making any move towards the right at all so they will likely have the same hard-left approach in 2017 that they do now.

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  5. KiwiGreg (3,169 comments) says:

    “Hamilton is unique as it is the only urban centre held by the Nats . ”

    Auckland Central???

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  6. georgedarroch (316 comments) says:

    If Christchurch Central is really “too close to call”, then the Nicky Wagner stock at iPredict is priced way too low (10c). https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=E14.CHC.NATIONAL

    Wellington Central has lost Wadestown, so should be even more secure for Grant Robertson.

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  7. bringbackdemocracy (391 comments) says:

    Boundaries that matter are in Epsom, Ohariu and East Coast Bays.
    Those three electorates will determine the outcome of the election.

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  8. Elaycee (4,289 comments) says:

    Losers: Ruth Dyson, Port Hills… Trevor Mallard, Hutt South… Cunliffe and Labour…

    I’ll drink to that…. :lol:

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  9. Grizz (500 comments) says:

    The battle for the electorate MP is often a side show with the exception of the select few with potential third party winners. The real battle of any MMP election is the Party vote, even though now only 1/3 of the next parliament will be list MPs

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  10. jawnbc (44 comments) says:

    Well summarised

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  11. dime (9,367 comments) says:

    The only reason i care about Nikki Kaye winning her seat is because she is less left wing than Jacinda.. by not much..

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  12. Grizz (500 comments) says:

    Has anyone done an analysis on Ohariu? Are the boundry changes a positive or a negative for the Sheep Dog.

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  13. thor42 (903 comments) says:

    @Grizz – “Has anyone done an analysis on Ohariu?”

    I’d like to see an analysis of that too. That and Epsom.

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  14. Sean (299 comments) says:

    Bloody hell. I am in Mt Albert now? Screw that.

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  15. jp_1983 (184 comments) says:

    Wadestown to Ohariou
    Thats the major change

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  16. Jadis (147 comments) says:

    Ohariu pretty awesome for Dunne with Wadestown coming into it especially with calibre of those going for Nat selection and the Labour candidate won’t set the world on fire

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  17. Pete George (22,753 comments) says:

    It’s Ōhāriu.

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  18. RightNow (6,645 comments) says:

    “It’s Ōhāriu.”

    What is?

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  19. iMP (2,231 comments) says:

    KiwiGreg (3,129 comments) says: “Hamilton is unique as it is the only urban centre held by the Nats . ”
    Auckland Central???

    Christchurch Central???

    bringbackdemocracy (350 comments) says: April 17th, 2014 at 1:20 pm
    Boundaries that matter are in Epsom, Ohariu and East Coast Bays.
    Those three electorates will determine the outcome of the election.

    Um, hate ta break it to ya BBD but electorates haven’t determined govts since before 1996. Its MMP Mickey Mouse Politics now my friend: Hone + Kimmy; and 1/3 of our List Mps may lose electorally (if they stand at all) but return on party lists.

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  20. iMP (2,231 comments) says:

    I think you’re over playing the Ruth Dyson thing.

    • Halswell is hardly National stronghold.
    • Dyson is a long term active local MP.
    • Speaker David Carter has never beaten her in Port Hills despite the Nats poll surfing
    • We have a Labour mayor and Labour deputy mayor and council (they’ll be out supporting the sisterhood) as Dalziel did Poto in the Chch east by-election a week after being elected mayor
    • And there are strong anti-govt issues in Canterbury.

    Boundary tweaks are blips on broader radars.

    I’d give Chch Central, Port Hills and Waimak all to Labour. The only blue rinses will be Gerry (Ilam) and Amy (Selwyn).

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  21. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    Yup, electorates only matter if they’re held (or challenged) by a party under the threshold, as Labour and National will get more party vote than their electorate share, so the electorates don’t matter.

    Thus, Epsom and Ohariu, as well as Te Tai Hauāuru, Waiariki and Tāmaki Makaurau are the only ones that matter. East Coast Bays if you think a cuppa is on offer.

    The former are likely retained by their current holders. The latter I reckon the runners up last time will get over the line here (Jones + Sykes) which may mean the Māori party eliminated from parliament. If that happens it’s a big deal, as National will then be reliant on either Conservatives (which won’t give an overhang, and might backfire in terms of total party vote if they do the cuppa) or Winston in order to form government. If Māori manage to stay alive with their current 3 seats (unlikely) then the Nats have a good chance of getting over the line without Winston.

    Look to see a deal done in Waiariki between the Labour candidate and Sykes…

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  22. horacethebear (3 comments) says:

    I agree with some of this, Hutt South is interesting, rest of the lower NI, no big deal.

    However, as a local I think the author is missing a few things in the SI. The changes in Chch are not that simple. Port hills also now has kept all the red voting areas of Bromley, when before they all were in chc east. That is worth about 1,000 votes to red team. The loss of halswell into PH also removes thousands blue votes from Selwyn, but with the pennisula staying now in Selwyn port hills will remain red. chch Central is also still on paper a leaning labour seat, but less so, but Mrs Milne is not the second coming of norm Kirk. And anyone who thinks Doocey will beat Cosgrove has not met either person nor saw how rubbish Doocey was in the by election. Wigram has come out better for Labour in this and Chc East, dare I say it is looking marginal with the reddest parts of Bromley removed, and some good bits of chch central and Waimak moved into it plus two huge new subdivisions now in it. On paper it looks now far stronger Blue vote than eg Central, Wigram. Also the changes to Dunedin north favour blue team as well.

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  23. lolitasbrother (467 comments) says:

    Quote
    [ Nicky Wagner, Christchurch Central – I am really pleased for Nicky as she was gutted when the provisional boundaries came out as they made it a strong red seat. There must have been some fascinating discussion at the Commission table because it is a crazy shaped seat – how many legs does it have? Nicky only won the seat by 47 votes so holding Christchurch Central was always going to be extremely tough. Big chunks of red vote have been cut out of the electorate so Christchurch Central is back in play for both parties. Still too close to call but certainly gone in Nats favour compared to the provisionals.]

    Yes , Nicky had some serious conversations about this.
    The provisional boundaries were awful, and the photo of her talking to PM John Key in Christchurch Press was sombre. We want to win this .
    I thought I would just go away for the election when the toast was wet in Christchurch , but now …I want the billboard job ..
    give me that Nat .. this is our seat electoral

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  24. lolitasbrother (467 comments) says:

    quote
    georgedarroch (303 comments) says:
    April 17th, 2014 at 1:17 pm
    If Christchurch Central is really “too close to call”, then the Nicky Wagner stock at iPredict is priced way too low (10c). https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=E14.CHC.NATIONAL

    unquote

    George,
    the predictions follow the presumptive boundaries earlier and Wagner’s reasonable pessimism,from those boundaries .
    NZ Nat party has not ranked her well in listings.
    Wagner is seen as an invisible MP but we will see ,Christchurch is not as it could be expected.
    Many of us still here are Conservative.
    I look forward to kick John Key backside and hard.

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  25. lolitasbrother (467 comments) says:

    quote
    georgedarroch (303 comments) says:
    April 17th, 2014 at 1:17 pm
    If Christchurch Central is really “too close to call”, then the Nicky Wagner stock at iPredict is priced way too low (10c). https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=E14.CHC.NATIONAL

    unquote

    George,
    the predictions follow the presumptive boundaries earlier and Wagner’s reasonable pessimism,from those boundaries .
    NZ Nat party has not ranked her well in listings.
    Wagner is seen as an invisible MP but we will see ,Christchurch is not as it could be expected.
    Many of us still here are Conservative.
    I look forward to kick John Key backside and hard.

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  26. lolitasbrother (467 comments) says:

    iMP (2,147 comments) says: April 17th, 2014 at 2:55 pm

    quote
    I think you’re over playing the Ruth Dyson thing.
    • Halswell is hardly National stronghold.
    • Dyson is a long term active local MP.
    • Speaker David Carter has never beaten her in Port Hills despite the Nats poll surfing
    • We have a Labour mayor and Labour deputy mayor and council (they’ll be out supporting the sisterhood) as Dalziel did Poto in the Chch east by-election a week after being elected mayor
    • And there are strong anti-govt issues in Canterbury.
    Boundary tweaks are blips on broader radars.
    I’d give Chch Central, Port Hills and Waimak all to Labour. The only blue rinses will be Gerry (Ilam) and Amy (Selwyn).
    unquote

    thats great iMP, but you don’t see what will happen to Tony Milne Christchurch Central yet, he deserves what he will get, keep cool till after school

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  27. Manolo (13,326 comments) says:

    The always balanced P.G. has now become a Te Reo teacher and linguist. :-)

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  28. Alan (1,055 comments) says:

    Those saying electorates don’t matter are very wrong.

    They matter because having a local mp brings organisation and volunteers, if you want to get the vote out and push up the party vote, you need boots on the ground working hard. You need very good local knowledge, you get that with a local mp.

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  29. RightNow (6,645 comments) says:

    @Manolo, I think he’s over-macroned the pedantry.

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  30. burt (7,793 comments) says:

    Alan

    … You need very good local knowledge, you sometimes get that with a local mp.

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  31. burt (7,793 comments) says:

    Mallard should resign in disgust….. Well, actually he should resign for lots of reasons including he’s a has been trougher from way back !

    Malllard … a great example of – I can vote to pass a law then have no idea what it says so I shouldn’t be prosecuted for breaking it !!!!

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  32. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    How can it be a good thing for Peter Dunne when he’s lost the western Hutt hills that apparently make Mallard a “loser”? I think Dunne’s in trouble unless National don’t run a candidate there.

    I can see how Nikki Kaye wins, her 2011 majority will be about 2500-3000 votes now, but I don’t see how Doocey or Wagner come out as big winners here. Momentum has swung against National in Christchurch since 2011, so a near nil change in majority from 2011 is not going to help. the only winner in Christchurch is whoever is running against Ruth Dyson in Port Hills.

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  33. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (783 comments) says:

    “Labour will easily win all the electoral seats as a strong Cunliffe wave is sweeping the country at the moment. There is a huge mood for change” – Chief of Staff Matt the tax McCarten and Deputy Manning.

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  34. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (783 comments) says:

    Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large jump in support for National (48.5%, up 5.5%) now with its largest lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrated the visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge.

    Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

    Support for the Labour Party has fallen to 28.5% (down 3.5%) – clearly the lowest support under new Labour Leader David Cunliffe, and the lowest Labour support since April 2012, the Greens have fallen to 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (unchanged), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%) and Internet Party (1%, up 0.5%) while support for Others is 0.5% (unchanged).

    If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National party would regain Government for a third term.

    Chief of Staff says this is a rogue poll and Labour is moving on……

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  35. Mobile Michael (410 comments) says:

    Mallard seems to a polarising figure in Hutt South. It’s hard to pick how the Western Hills will vote but it will make the seat a marginal one.

    And while National hold a handful of seats in Auckland and Christchurch, it’s generally a sea of red around the larger population centres and blue around the provincial centres.

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  36. leftyliberal (642 comments) says:

    Sir Cullen’s Sidekick: The RM poll results are pretty much the same as they were 2 polls ago. i.e. polls move around the average, not really surprising. Based on current averages, the Nats have about a 50/50 chance of being able to govern without the need for Winston. It gets more like 30/70 if Maori don’t get a seat.

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  37. stuarts-burgers (99 comments) says:

    With the provisional Boundaries it looked like Christchurch Central would return to being a Labour Rotten Borough.
    We did a lot of work and late in the submission period it was decided to have a a go at attempting to improve the situation.
    I presented to the Commission and found it very interesting having never done anything like this before, ( the small break we took to hear McCullum bring up his 300 was different but very Kiwi) the Commission seemed not only to want objections but solutions as well.
    Peter Hodgson had a niggle at me on this and I explained I was just ” a simple tyre fitter” who had taken a days annual leave to come and speak to the Commission but i seemed to get some support from the “Bureaucrats” that were that day. I did manage to come up with a bit of a solution using the interactive map that was available ( cool piece of kit ) and which looking at the final boundaries it seems that this solution was one of the ideas adopted.
    I found the whole process interesting, and I think it shows that if you want the “little man” can still change things. If you see a problem get involved find a solution and present it.
    Edit : Spelling

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  38. YesWeDid (1,029 comments) says:

    I doubt that more ‘favourable’ boundaries will help Nicky Wagner. She is a very poor electorate MP and will lose CHCH central.

    Nicky is largely invisible and seems to think an MP’s job is sending out the occasional newsletter with photos of her standing next to John Key. She very rarely appears in the CHCH Press newspaper and that has a big influence on local politics.

    She was invisible during recent floods in her electorate when she was in Wellington ‘making up the voting numbers’ for National. She has been invisible in the debate over local school closures or advocating for earthquake claimants.

    There is a lot of unrest in CHCH about the slow earthquake recovery progress, the interminable road works and lack of leadership around major issues like the stadium and cathedral rebuild so a lot of the ‘feel good’ factor that helped National in the last election has evaporated.

    This simmering anger resulted in a massive overhaul of the local council at last years local body election so I expect to see similar anger at ‘do nothing’ local MP’s like Nicky come October.

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  39. Daigotsu (450 comments) says:

    Great to see Labour get the kicking they deserve

    If this process continues we will finally see a return to fair, non-gerrymandered boundaries.

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  40. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    I think Anne Tolley’s a bit of a loser from the boundary changes too, with Kawerau joining East Coast.

    Last election the party vote in Kawerau was 37% Labour, 29% National, 21% New Zealand First and 5.5% Greens, while the electorate vote was 48% for the Labour candidate, 34% for the National candidate.

    If Labour campaign hard there, Tolley could be under pressure.

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