Latest poll

June 5th, 2014 at 3:18 pm by David Farrar

The latest Roy Morgan poll is here.

  • National 52.5% (+7%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.5%)
  • Greens 9.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Act 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United 0% (nc)

Also right direction is 64.5% (+4.5%), wrong direction 24.0% (-4.0%).

Only one poll and Roy Morgan always bounces around a lot. But still quite a result.

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58 Responses to “Latest poll”

  1. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Bloody lovely news . . . bet MSM are really going to push the left-wing propaganda out now.

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  2. wreck1080 (3,799 comments) says:

    wow, labour are truly dead ducks.

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  3. radvad (696 comments) says:

    Wow………….and WOW

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  4. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    “Tojo” Cunliffe will not like this, may be payback for shit he is throwing at JK over Banks. These Labour/Green/Communist losers need a good thumping at the polls.

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  5. spanish_tudor (56 comments) says:

    With Banks in strife, Key should go to the country now.

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  6. radvad (696 comments) says:

    The spectre of Cunliffe being pushed around by Harawira/Harre/Dotcom will only continue to increase the centre right vote. Cunliffe really is between a rock and a hard place over this and it could not happen to a nicer guy.

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  7. dirty harry (444 comments) says:

    *snigger snort*…liarbor down 1.5%…meh, see ya Tojo…

    “NEXT”!…

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  8. davidp (3,556 comments) says:

    The Green Party support has absolutely crashed, overnight. Carbon tax? That would explain why Labour has rejected it, but surely it wouldn’t have come as any surprise to Green supporters. So this confuses me. Pleases me, but confuses me.

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  9. Don the Kiwi (1,646 comments) says:

    Bloody good show – hope it holds till 20th.Sept.

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  10. Pete George (23,296 comments) says:

    davidp – all of the polling would have been done before the Carbon Tax was announced. The polling period ended on Sunday (May 19 – June 1). So no effect from that.

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  11. chris (589 comments) says:

    @davidp Maybe the middle class voters for the Green Party are waking up and realising what a horrible idea it would be to vote for them? More likely, it really is a rogue poll. If those percentages were the election night result, National would have something like 66 seats, once the wasted votes were removed (NZ First and likely Conservatives), and I can’t really see that happening. One side affect of polling too high is a certain number of your supporters voting for other parties, such as ACT, Conservative or NZ First.

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  12. dime (9,658 comments) says:

    lol this poll was taken before the carbon TAX was announced by the gweens?

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  13. Chris R (65 comments) says:

    It is almost 30 years since Muldoon’s snap-election, perhaps it is time for a further one? The result will sky-rocket National into the high 50%s, obliterate Hatfield’s gang, destroy Cunnliffe’s aspirations of being PM and make the rest of us truly happy!!!

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  14. mjw (343 comments) says:

    Great to see the Greens down.

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  15. davidp (3,556 comments) says:

    Chris>Maybe the middle class voters for the Green Party are waking up and realising what a horrible idea it would be to vote for them?

    Maybe people are happy to vote for the environment when it is all cute kittens and fluffy clouds. But opinions change when you slap a high price and mass unemployment on it?

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  16. Rich Prick (1,630 comments) says:

    Crikey, that’s a big change for the Greens. I can’t figure out where their support is going though, at -4.5% it can’t be a product of poll size, surely?

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  17. Than (440 comments) says:

    Good to see Internet-Mana still at the 1% mark. Despite all the buzz they’ve generated (and the glimmer of hope in segments of the far-left) I suspect they’ll stay at this level regardless of how many million Dotcom spends. A radical fringe position is still a radical fringe position even if you spend a lot advertising it.

    The big drop for the Greens is a surprise. I can’t think of any negative news about the Greens or positive news about Labour to account for it. It’s a large enough shift that it’s unlikely to just be polling variation, but I’m at a loss to explain it.

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  18. notrotsky (63 comments) says:

    This has tipped some of them over the edge into insanity at The Standard they’ve gone from crowing over the Banks decision to completely feral comments calling for the hang drawing and quartering of Key and Banks….. bizarre and somewhat nauseating.

    http://thestandard.org.nz/banks-found-guilty-of-electoral-fraud/#comment-825666

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  19. RightNow (6,836 comments) says:

    Heh, that travellerev used to comment here, but gave up after a short while. I seem to recall she’s a flake.
    And she’s clearly getting even more unhinged judging by that comment at the stranded.

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  20. mjw (343 comments) says:

    Nick Smith might be responsible for Greens loss of votes. Perhaps canning the monorail played well. Imagine how many votes the Nats could get if they took Global Warming seriously !

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  21. RightNow (6,836 comments) says:

    “Imagine how many votes the Nats could get if they took Global Warming seriously !”

    What Global Warming? It’s Climate Change you know, since it’s not warming and it’s not global. How seriously can you take a lie?

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  22. ex-golfer (155 comments) says:

    Some on the left demanding an early election on back of Banks decision.
    Ummm, ok then, bring it on.
    Idiots.

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  23. burt (7,994 comments) says:

    It’s still hard to believe that 29% of people have never noticed that Labour party policies have ended in tears every time they have been tried in the last 50 years !

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  24. kiwi in america (2,470 comments) says:

    The RM poll is extremely volatile so such large movements should be taken with a grain of salt but that said, I’m picking the KDC/IMP rort, which has been so widely panned, has scared voters to National. The Greens carbon tax was announced on the weekend so at the last part of the polling period still its hard to account for such a large percentage of their vote falling away. Labour’s slippage is easily explained and shows that Cunliffe’s immigration dog whistle has failed.

    Given the likely partial backlash that the government will get after the Banks guilty verdict, this poll could just as easily reverse on National next fortnight as we’ve seen +4 followed by -4 quite regularly with the RM poll.

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  25. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    burt
    If that’s the case, why are the same policies so faithfully followed by National?

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  26. hj (6,698 comments) says:

    TV3′s Reid Research poll asked voters whether immigration should be restricted and 62 per cent said yes, with 35 per cent wanting it left the way it is.
    http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8850861/most-voters-want-immigration-restrictions

    Labour and the Greens are on the same side as national!

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  27. burt (7,994 comments) says:

    mikenmild

    burt
    If that’s the case, why are the same policies so faithfully followed by National?

    Well they have been while we’ve been recovering from 9 years of Labour government – historically though there has actually been a difference between National and Labour.

    But sure, you raise a good question. Perhaps people just don’t like unions running their government ?

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  28. BeaB (2,080 comments) says:

    I wonder if the Greens efforts to look mainstream have weakened their support. After all if you are led by a grey bore in a grey suit and a self-righteous fatty in $4000 designer jackets why would the fringe, cranky, greeny crowd bother to vote for you?

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  29. thor42 (970 comments) says:

    Great to see the Greens dropping into single figures!
    Labour are still far too high for my liking. How on earth almost 30% of people can support the cluster-**** that is Labour is a mystery.

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  30. Chthoniid (2,029 comments) says:

    The Greens decline is the most puzzling aspect of the poll.

    It may indicate that there is a soft-group of voters who are switching between the Greens and Labour frequently and readily. Th smaller decline in Labour could be some of these ‘green’ voters switching back to Labour. But I’m not sure what the trigger could be.

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  31. mjw (343 comments) says:

    thor42 – But why would you support National as an alternative? They are a party that promises more social services and lower taxes on the one hand, and less borrowing and higher surpluses on the other hand. While delivering both low inflation and low interest rates! If you think that all adds up, then they would also like to sell you a second hand bridge.

    So what is their real agenda after the election? Are they going to lurch further to the left, or lurch the other way and follow Tony Abbot? Who knows?

    National don’t seem to believe in anything anymore, except power. To me, that signals the need for a change.

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  32. hj (6,698 comments) says:

    Labour leader David Cunliffe has taken his hardest line yet against immigrants, blaming them for rising house prices.

    It follows a 3 News-Reid Research poll which shows almost two-thirds of voters say immigration should be restricted.

    “It would take 80 percent of our housing supply just to accommodate this year’s migrants – and National is doing nothing,” says Mr Cunliffe.

    The poll shows 62 percent of voters want tighter restrictions on immigration, while only 35 percent say leave it.

    “I don’t think taking away the welcome mat is the right thing to do,” says Prime Minister John Key.

    In the past year 71,210 immigrants arrived in New Zealand – the highest in 11 years.
    “We reckon immigration should be at a steady moderate level – that’s where our housing, our schools and our hospitals can cope,” says Mr Cunliffe.

    But it’s Auckland’s housing market where immigrants are really getting the blame.

    “Barfoot & Thompson, top 25 agents – 24 are Asian, so who are they selling to?” says NZ First leader Winston Peters.

    Unsurprisingly, 84 percent of NZ First voters want immigration restricted. Sixty-eight percent of Labour voters agree, along with 58 percent of Green Party voters.

    Despite Mr Key being on the wrong side of public opinion, he won’t budge.

    “New Zealand is a country that has been built on migration. We’ve done very well out of it and I think we should be very cautious about taking knee-jerk steps,” he says.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/David-Cunliffe-blames-migrants-for-housing-crisis/tabid/1607/articleID/345855/Default.aspx#ixzz33jj2pF7w

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  33. Pete George (23,296 comments) says:

    Labour’s slippage is easily explained and shows that Cunliffe’s immigration dog whistle has failed.

    When did he first bring that up? I was away last week but I thought that has only been since the weekend so will have hardly or not affected this poll.

    Even the Internet Party-MANA hitchup and Harre’s announcement will have only caught the end of the polling period.

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  34. kowtow (7,921 comments) says:

    How on earth 30% can support Labour?

    Easy. Universalism and/or “equality” has given the vote to fuckers with little or nothing. They use that vote to steal other people’s wealth through taxation and social welfare.

    It is morally corrupt.

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  35. hj (6,698 comments) says:

    Labour leader David Cunliffe has taken his hardest line yet against immigrants, blaming them for rising house prices.

    It follows a 3 News-Reid Research poll which shows almost two-thirds of voters say immigration should be restricted.

    “It would take 80 percent of our housing supply just to accommodate this year’s migrants – and National is doing nothing,” says Mr Cunliffe.

    The poll shows 62 percent of voters want tighter restrictions on immigration, while only 35 percent say leave it.

    “I don’t think taking away the welcome mat is the right thing to do,” says Prime Minister John Key.

    In the past year 71,210 immigrants arrived in New Zealand – the highest in 11 years.
    “We reckon immigration should be at a steady moderate level – that’s where our housing, our schools and our hospitals can cope,” says Mr Cunliffe.

    But it’s Auckland’s housing market where immigrants are really getting the blame.

    “Barfoot & Thompson, top 25 agents – 24 are Asian, so who are they selling to?” says NZ First leader Winston Peters.

    Unsurprisingly, 84 percent of NZ First voters want immigration restricted. Sixty-eight percent of Labour voters agree, along with 58 percent of Green Party voters.

    Despite Mr Key being on the wrong side of public opinion, he won’t budge.

    “New Zealand is a country that has been built on migration. We’ve done very well out of it and I think we should be very cautious about taking knee-jerk steps,” he says.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/David-Cunliffe-blames-migrants-for-housing-crisis/tabid/1607/articleID/345855/Default.aspx#ixzz33jj2pF7w

    David H 2.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 8:03 am

    Cunliffe on Brekkie TV3 this morning finally got the message out that the immigration thing was a beat up. And all started because Blinglish lost the chapter on housing.
    Reply

    karol 2.1.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 9:11 am

    Glad to hear it. Can’t find the video of it online.
    Reply
    David H 2.1.1.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 9:58 am

    Here you go Karol.

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-not-anti-immigration—Cunliffe/tabid/370/articleID/346076/Default.aspx

    http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-28052014/

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  36. Too Right (9 comments) says:

    This poll precedes the Greens carbon tax and the Dotcon goings on. It won;t get better for the Left. While there are some that say the Roy Morgan poll moves around a bit this poll is consistent with all recent polls. The trend is not for the Left.

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  37. michaelmouse (11 comments) says:

    The long term trend is very interesting. Since 2005 National has been on a steady rise, while Labour has been in a steady decline.

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  38. Ross Miller (1,681 comments) says:

    mjw … you just don’t get it do you. The vast majority of decent NZrs see National as ‘their’ government and reflecting ‘their’ values. They don’t get it right all of the time but clearly an increasing discerning electorate understands and accepts the 80/20 rule as reflective of the MMP environment. Extremist parties of the right and left just don’t cut it and neither they should as they are ideologically driven where middle NZL comes a poor second. Labour has lurched so far left under Cunliffe so as to take it out of contention as a serious player. Their only hope is to cobble together an inherently unstable coalition of the populist centre, the left, the more left and the harder left.

    And you said ‘that signals the need for change’ … some change, you can be their poster boy if you wish. The good news is that the electorate at large ain’t so stupid.

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  39. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (833 comments) says:

    Rogue Morgan is finally catching up with TV1 and TV3 polls. What pleases me so much is the drop in the toxic Greens’ share. Rogue Morgan always used to project Greens in the 12-14% range.

    Now wait for the left nasties to promise the moon……lolly scramble will start. I get the feeling that Messiah is waiting to announce a big bribe exactly one week before election….something like all student loans will be waived or Government will give 20% deposit to all home buyers interest free or “Kiwiloan” for mortgage at 2% interest…something crazy to draw attention, win the election and then say it will be implemented when financial conditions improve and escape. Put the blame on National saying they have borrowed too much.

    Communists and socialists are capable of doing anything to win an election. Beware uncle Key and National jokers.

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  40. notrotsky (63 comments) says:

    SCS I think we will see exactly the kind of bribes you suggest, instead of moving to the sensible centre they will go feral and promise the moon

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  41. mjw (343 comments) says:

    Ross Miller, I appreciate your point of view, but respectfully disagree. I can only see two things the current government stands for: NZ Inc and the desire to tell the worse off how they ought to lead their lives. Both are exactly what Hayek warned against in the Road to Serfdom. I’m not saying we are on the road to serfdom yet, but we sure a looking longingly at the turnoff. We need regular changes of government to protect our freedom.

    Funnily enough, Sir Cullen’s Sidekick expresses my concerns perfectly (if I take his words out of context).

    “Socialists are capable of doing anything to win an election. Beware uncle Key.”

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  42. ross411 (291 comments) says:

    kowtow (7,113 comments) says:
    June 5th, 2014 at 4:48 pm
    How on earth 30% can support Labour?

    Easy. Universalism and/or “equality” has given the vote to fuckers with little or nothing. They use that vote to steal other people’s wealth through taxation and social welfare.

    It is morally corrupt.

    Can’t you understand how great it is?

    You pay a decent share of the money you earn to the government, then when you spend what’s left you get to pay an additional decent amount to the government over and above the price the seller receives. And that’s just the start.

    All the hard not-workers out there deserve a living wage. How can they possibly live without cigarettes or Sky TV? And how else are Labour and the Greens supposed to subsidise the first houses of those to whom they’ve promised them to? That they should have to work to earn the money to pay for the house as people before them did… inconceivable!!

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  43. ross411 (291 comments) says:

    mjw (136 comments) says:
    June 5th, 2014 at 5:21 pm
    Ross Miller, I appreciate your point of view, but respectfully disagree. I can only see two things the current government stands for: NZ Inc and the desire to tell the worse off how they ought to lead their lives. Both are exactly what Hayek warned against in the Road to Serfdom. I’m not saying we are on the road to serfdom yet, but we sure a looking longingly at the turnoff. We need regular changes of government to protect our freedom.

    How should the worse off live their lives? Should they continue not feed their children properly? Not dress them properly? Should they get an arbitrary living wage based off getting Sky TV for which those not “worse off” need to work more to be able to afford to give them? My mother is a school teacher for worse off families children, and some of her students can barely speak when they start school.

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  44. mjw (343 comments) says:

    ross411: “How should the worse off live their lives? ”

    Answer: The way they choose to.

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  45. RightNow (6,836 comments) says:

    The way they choose to and they can pay for it themselves?

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  46. mjw (343 comments) says:

    RightNow: In my view the safety net should come without hectoring, and without too many strings attached. Otherwise we are going down that corrosive path of making other people’s choices for them.

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  47. radvad (696 comments) says:

    mjw
    Those of us who finance the safety net have our choices restricted. By being forced to pay for some activities that I would never choose to indulge in my choices are reduced.

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  48. mjw (343 comments) says:

    radvad – I hold a different view. By choosing to live in a free and developed society that values dignity in all it citizens, your choices are instead vastly increased.

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  49. RightNow (6,836 comments) says:

    I hold the view that the safety net shouldn’t be furnished with a big TV and stocked with booze or there’s no motivation to make better choices

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  50. radvad (696 comments) says:

    mjw
    Aaahhh, now I know. I am being forced to pay for other people’s dignity. Who knew.

    As for me I choose to get my dignity from working hard, obeying the law, loving and caring for my family, being involved in the community and being a giver and not a taker while I am able.

    I recommend it.

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  51. mjw (343 comments) says:

    radvad – me too. But not everybody is so lucky. Anyway, we can agree to disagree. Cheers.

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  52. Fisiani (992 comments) says:

    Right direction 64.5% is crucial. What can the far left do in 100 days to change that around. Not a lot. 52.5% have plumped for National and another 12% reckon the government is on the right track. Why would they vote for the haters and wreckers? This is not a rogue poll. This is the beginning of a landslide of epic proportion. If National are disciplined and do not engage in silly side shows they could score 60% and 72 MP’s. National and government support parties make up 65% of the political spectrum. The Right, The Centre-Right and the Centre. Davy and the GIMPS fight for the far left 35%.

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  53. srylands (392 comments) says:

    I still find it facepalming that around 40% of folk support Labour and the Greens. I mean even if National wins, there is something seriously wrong with our nation that, faced with the awful wealth destroying policies of these Parties, that they can attract 40% of the vote. It should be half that.

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  54. seanmaitland (472 comments) says:

    This is clearly a rogue poll, and its unfair because half of Green voters can’t afford landlines because they don’t have jobs and have never had jobs. Also its racist against Maori people because Mana only got 1%.

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  55. kiwi in america (2,470 comments) says:

    Peter George
    Cunliffe first blew the immigration dog whistle on May 14 and then of course has chopped and changed the details ever since – Whale has an excellent timeline on this yesterday http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/06/labours-immigration-policy-week-looks-quite-different-last-week-different-week/ so his pratfalls in this regard would be caught in this poll.

    Too Right
    The Greens announced their carbon tax proposal on Saturday 31 May and it got a major media airing on the Saturday and Sunday TV channels and papers. The RM Poll’s polling period ended Sunday night June 1 so they would’ve caught a portion of reaction to it. Major media began reporting Leila Harre’s appointment (actually we should say hiring) as Internet Party leader on Wednesday May 28th and the launch was made official with a big media event Thursday May 29th so the launch (and negative reaction to it) would be mostly caught in the RM polling period. Of course since Sunday there was been more negative media commentary.

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  56. All_on_Red (1,488 comments) says:

    srylands
    “I still find it facepalming that around 40% of folk support Labour and the Greens. ”
    Well someone has to be in the group which has below average intelligence. That s how averages work!

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  57. Left Right and Centre (2,876 comments) says:

    thor42 – listening to talkback explains where some of those retards must come from.

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  58. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    It is another example of a man vilified by media, being found guilty by a man appointed to the bench by Michael Cullen, who Banks once called a poofter. Be careful you gloaters of the left, what goes around comes around, you lefties owe the fat German slug big time, especially “Tojo” and Norman!

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