Labour at 15 year low in Herald Digipoll

July 20th, 2014 at 11:16 am by David Farrar

Another day, another rogue poll. At what point will Labourites accept they are polling well under 30%?

The Herald reports:

’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

Its a good result but with MMP the guy preferred with 10.3% can beat the guy preferred by 73.3%. Labour could poll in the 20s yet still form a Government. There is no room for complacency. Every vote is important.

Labour’s total support is down from 30.5 per cent in June, but it is disproportionately down among male voters, with only 23.9 per cent of men backing Labour, compared with 29.1 per cent of women.

I apologise for polling so badly as a man.

Political commentator Chris Trotter said the poll indicated Labour was “more or less bereft of hope”.

“Labour is in an extremely parlous position, and the situation is deteriorating.”

I never regard someone as dead until I have chopped the head off, put a stake through the head and burnt the corpse. A lot can still happen in 62 days.

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59 Responses to “Labour at 15 year low in Herald Digipoll”

  1. duggledog (1,585 comments) says:

    Lots of lies and bribes to come before September 20th, will be good fun watching them fail and fail and fail again. Too many kiwis aren’t buying it

    Dead philosophy

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  2. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Mix with weirdos, genderqueens, leeches, and unionists, this is what you get.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 27 Thumb down 8 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. tvb (4,497 comments) says:

    And there will be a lot of soul searching over the traitor who spoke to the press about Cunliffe’s work ethic. That should consume a week. But there is plenty of time yet they say. About 5% or more of National’s vote is very fragile and it could fall away on one minor slip-up like the cup of tea-gate. I think John Key has learned what went wrong there.

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  4. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  5. adze (2,129 comments) says:

    tvb

    And I hope they put together a far better campaign this election than they did in 2011. With particular emphasis on getting out the vote. Remember National’s dreadful “half empty seminar” party political broadcast TV ad?

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  6. I Say Look Here (57 comments) says:

    CharlieBrown… if that’s the way you’re thinking, maybe you’d better let Snoopy cast your vote.

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  7. Chuck Bird (4,923 comments) says:

    I bet Winston could be on 5 or 6% in the next poll if he is brave enough to name the sexual predator in Parliament that Rodney referred to. For good measure he could also name the kiddy fiddling lawyer from Hawke’s Bay.

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  8. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    Charlie B …

    Did you ever meet Charles M Shulz???
    I did, at his studio above his Sonoma County Ca. ice rink.

    He would say you are nuts to take that line, and nothing like his Charlie Brown.

    But then again there is hope for you because by voting for ACT you would help J Key. Charlie Brown would have an appropriate homily ready….

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  9. Liberty (269 comments) says:

    It is very easy to blame Cunliffe for the appalling poll results. The reality is the whole front bench
    are inept. Past there use by date and trying to push agendas that are only of interest to a few envy ridden pinkos.
    It is more than apparent. Heartland NZ is happy with the status quo.

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  10. mikemikemikemike (331 comments) says:

    I never regard someone as dead until I have chopped the head off, put a stake through the hear and burnt the corpse. – Jesus I feel sorry for anyone you have to organize a funeral for! :D

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  11. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    That poll doesn’t seem to resonate with the Herald’s on line editors.
    It is treated as just another item.
    But I guess there is a message in that: More of the same, so why worry?

    say….

    Has anyone been brave enough to sample the apoplectic bile at the stranded????

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  12. Psycho Milt (2,419 comments) says:

    …Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

    Ah, good times. How we laughed! Seems only fair the tables had to be turned at some point…

    Its a good result but with MMP the guy preferred with 10.3% can beat the guy preferred by 73.3%.

    As someone who knows a bit about politics, you’re presumably well aware the same applied under FPP, because we don’t/didn’t vote for Prime Minister under either system.

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  13. big bruv (14,135 comments) says:

    I love David Cuntliffe!

    Long may he lead the Labour party.

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  14. Longknives (4,864 comments) says:

    Never fear! A couple of Left-leaning ‘acquaintances’ are spouting off on Facebook that Kim Slobcom’s big announcement in election week is going to “bring down the Fascist John Key once and for all”
    Holy Hell! Have they got pictures of him sacrificing small children? It would have to be pretty damn bad wouldn’t it??
    Or is the Obese criminal just going to tell another enormous Porky (Knowing his adoring NZ media will lap it up) to try and save his blubbery arse?

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  15. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    JK could govern alone without any problems by using his powers and putting the fat criminal freak on a plane to the States with a promise to show pics of the obese slug uncomfortably sitting in a US cell . . . where he belongs. Come on National this criminal creep has gone to far.

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  16. PaulL (6,040 comments) says:

    Clearly this is a better position to be in for National than the alternatives. But it also contains it’s own risks – the risk of the team easing back, of people starting to think they could vote for that nice Peter Dunne or maybe the Maori party, or maybe CCP etc etc, and if one or other party doesn’t make the threshold then so be it.

    Now is the time for Key to explicitly rule out Winston (put a nail in that coffin if possible), and to introduce some clarity around the smaller parties. Not clarity in the sense of standing people aside or having cups of tea, but being clear on which parties are likely to be part of team right, and which parties not part of team right. I.e. if you vote NZF, you’re voting for Cunliffe and the Greens, if you vote for the Greens you’re voting for Cunliffe and Winston, etc etc.

    It’s also probably time for the minor parties to be clear where they sit. So the conservatives – would they go with Labour? Their only bottom line so far is binding referenda. Labour would be dumb enough to give them that. Would they go with Labour if Labour meet their bottom line? Whenever you put your vote somewhere other than National you need to be sure that you’re voting for the right still – some in Australia found this out last term of parliament when they thought they were voting for an independent who would support the Liberals, and 3 of those independents put Gillard into power. That was somewhat surprising to some of their voters.

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  17. Chthoniid (2,047 comments) says:

    I think the history of not rejuvenating, a divided caucus and the failure to produce a coherent alternative to government leaves me unsurprised at this poll result.

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  18. davidp (3,587 comments) says:

    I think there is a danger that Labour’s disastrous poll results might increase their chance of winning. Once they get below about 20% of the vote then we’re in overhang territory. If Labour supporters all gave their party vote to the Greens then they’d force an overhang and we’d have a Labour-Green government, even tho together they’d have about 40% support to National’s 50%.

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  19. Chthoniid (2,047 comments) says:

    @Psycho Milt

    The difference is rejuvenation. When National was low, and they replaced the old 80s/90s look of a bunch of white men, with a broader array of candidates. And that was a deliberate play by Brash and Boag. We got Paula Bennett and other MPs who were not “traditional” National faces.

    Look at the Labour caucus. It’s too much of the tired old faces of the Lange/Clark era.
    National produced the blueprint of ‘how to rejuvenate’. And the Labour party has ignored it. It has cost them.

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  20. hj (7,062 comments) says:

    Labour Knows Best. Goodbye Helen Clarke

    Just inside the sliding doors of the Dahua supermarket in Northcote, Spoonley enthuses over the leafy greens. An estimated 80 per cent of the businesses in the precinct are Asian.
    “Have you been in one of these lately? Look at the variety,” he says, waving an arm across the expanse of the produce aisle. “You are getting all the choys. And see, it’s in Mandarin script as well as English.”
    We continue through the aisles, up into the meat section where a customer is chatting happily with one of the staff. “Have you heard English spoken so far?” says Spoonley. “Most of the language spoken here is Mandarin. Asia comes to Auckland. Asia comes to New Zealand.”
    A pile of Chinese newspapers sits on the floor near the exit. It’s with what sounds like wonder that Spoonley points out it’s just one of 28 Asian publications, most in foreign languages, printed in Auckland.
    Outside, in the carpark, he admires the surrounding strips of shops and businesses: “Look down here, look at all of this: Your hair studio, your video, your pharmacy, everything that you would want. And you can deal in Mandarin.
    “Countdown is about the only nonAsian business. There will be one or two others but I am struggling to pick any. Can you? So I think 80 per cent is probably conservative.”
    In the 1990s, Northcote was seen as a low— cost housing area with a drug problem. The centre was going through a slump. Rental rates took a dive and the Asian business communitybegan to move in. It wasn’t advertised as an Asian development.
    “It’s one of what we would call an ethnic precinct,” says Spoonley. “We haven’t seen this before in New Zealand.”
    Kai Lucy was born in Westport in 1941.

    NZ Geographic.

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  21. Chuck Bird (4,923 comments) says:

    PaulL: all political analysis say National will likely need a coalition partner if not this time but in 2017. NZF could be that party with Shane Jones as leader. What other party could have a number of MPs in 2017?

    Yesterday I watched on the Nation Winston, Colin and Jamie Whyte. The reason I support binding referenda on a limited number of moral issues like smacking that I believe the average voter is not stupid. That is reflected in the polls of the minor parties.

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  22. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    “A lot can still happen in 62 days.”

    I agree. The Nats have still got to get the voters out.

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  23. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    Flipper and “I Say Look Here ” – looks like the best counter you have is insults.

    I have voted ACT at every election I have voted in, and I believe they have their best leader since Prebble. And I have thought about my position for a long time and I honestly believe that ridding NZ of John Key is the best way forward. Labour is at its most left wing it has been in a very long time and yet it still accuses National of stealing its policies… that says a hell of a lot about where National currently sits in the political spectrum. My decision to vote is like getting rid of a rotten tooth, I can continue to take pain killers and go with the easy short term option and vote to keep national in, or I can go for the immediately painful route that will achieve the best long term results.

    History will judge John Key as a leader that wasted NZ’s biggest opportunity to take a huge step forward in prosperity.

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  24. Reid (16,632 comments) says:

    that says a hell of a lot about where National currently sits in the political spectrum

    Charlie it was Hulun who bodily picked up the entire NZ electorate and shifted it south. My theory is Key has looked at Hulun’s techniques and has decided to adopt them in order that he can become “the best PM NZ has ever had.” My theory is that’s the goal he has set HIMSELF and if true it means he’s unfit for office because fact is, an MP serves others, not himself. Or should, and if they want it the other way round, then they’re not fit for office.

    One of Hulun’s main tactics is being a poll-driven fruitcake and we all know Key is definitely that. Recall when in London he made Parata reverse herself on class-sizes because the polls had shown opinion was the other way. This means that regardless of whether its correct or not, Key will take the popular route.

    Which runs up against Churchill’s comment about the main problem with democracy being revealed in a 5 min conversation with your AVERAGE voter. Fact is, some of us know what the right thing is, but most people wouldn’t have a fucking clue.

    In a proper world, those people would be told what was going to happen, they wouldn’t be consulted.

    So one understands your position.

    However it’s a question of balance. Reality is, we either have a poll-driven fruitcake with some redeeming qualities (he’s not evil and he’s not an idiot), or we have a bunch of raving loonies at the wheel. There isn’t a third alternative. Is there.

    History will judge John Key as a leader that wasted NZ’s biggest opportunity to take a huge step forward in prosperity.

    And I agree with that. Key had the GFC to withdraw the tax cuts and he didn’t and he had a one-off opportunity to make a point of difference in conservative administration with massive slashes to Hulun’s policies like student loans and who cares what people thought. Since he didn’t they’re now burned in and will be an albatross forever. The fact some people give you a minus simply for pointing out that reality just demonstrates conservatives have their fair share of AVERAGE voters who don’t have a clue too, doesn’t it.

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  25. Ross12 (1,453 comments) says:

    I find it interesting that the MSM and many political geeks still place so much emphasis on Labour’s performance v National. That is just FFP thinking. Yes Labour has historically been the major force on the left of politics in NZ but that is the past –I’m not just referring to Labour slump in the polls in the past year. It has been that way for several years.
    It is about time they just started to talk about the opposition parties as a group. Many people do this when discussing an issue or details of poll results but the headlines are still Labour up or down and National up or down.
    At the very least, National needs to talk like this during the campaign, to continually remind its support that MMP insures, if not guarantees a close race.

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  26. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Has Scumliffe apologised for taking a rich prick’s holiday skiing? That isn’t the domain of a Labourite leech, he should be in a backpackers’ lodge in Dargaville, not swanning around living a life of Riley, using taxpayers’ or hidden donors’ monies.

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  27. nasska (11,788 comments) says:

    It’s the price we pay to live in a democracy Reid. The third alternative is a benevolent dictatorship which is an efficient form of government under which a nation can make huge advances.

    The downside is that they tend not to stay benevolent & can be a bit tricky to get rid of when their use by date is up.

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  28. hj (7,062 comments) says:

    Once Labour was epitomised by (say) the kindly old unionist who had done the hard yards on the factory floor and had the uneven gait, calloused hands and poor hearing to show for it. Now they are academics who feel they are entitled to override the opinions and world view of the great unwashed. Who needs voters when an elite can look at statistics and understand studies while knowing all about the base nature of humanity. If only they could convince the unwashed (piling into the Green Party seems to work)!

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  29. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    hj: Show me one of the Labour line-up that has stood on their own feet? As I see it, there is not one who has survived without either bludging off unionists, taxpayers, or ratepayers. They are educated leeching failures, the bloody lot.

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  30. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    Reid – thanks for the considered rebuttal. I ask myself whether NZ will be better off in 6-10 years time (not 3 years time) if National win this election vs losing it. And I see there being two likely scenarios:

    1 – National win now and over the next 3 years, being poll driven fruitcakes adopt even more popular labour policies. But due to complacency and the inevitable public desire for change a Labour, Green, NZ First and possibly mana party co-alition gets in relatively comfortably. And as what normally happens they quickly implement further left wing policies. As their economic sabotage hasn’t had its side-effects hit in yet and National having to go through the painful process of rejuvenation they get in for another term with National geting < 30%. Over those six years they have implemented policies that have set us back a further ten years in addition to the 18 years of Helen Clark socialism. We are all poorer, we have record crime and generally are all less happy.

    2 – National lose now and a 5 headed monster comes to power. National are by far and away the most popular party and the five headed monster is incredibly dysfunctional. They implement their stupid policies now instead of in 3 years time. No coalition government would be popular when the opposition is at mid 40's in popularity. Due to the inability to work together the government is a train wreck and get destroyed in the 2017 election. But in that time they have damaged NZ enough to require the incoming government to make massive changes to fix things up, under a new leader, who hopefully has enough vision to do whats right for the country, not whats right for their mp's to keep their comfy seats in power. After winning the 2020 election the government ends up with 2 terms to fix things and make long term structural changes that benefit everyone that has the desire to make smart decisions and work for their lot. This will be the first center/center right government NZ would have had in 18 years and a generation of people will be able to experience the freedom to get ahead if they choose to work for it.

    I prefer scenario 2.

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  31. Left Right and Centre (2,994 comments) says:

    Good poll, rogue party.

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  32. hj (7,062 comments) says:

    New Zealand First falls just short of the 5 per cent threshold to get MPs into Parliament without an electorate seat, on 4.6 per cent, and would not make it back at all.

    The poll of 750 decided voters was taken between July 10 and July 17. Undecided voters were 11.5 per cent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 per cent.
    ………..
    According to Reid Research 62 % think we should have tighter restrictions on immigration.
    I suggest support for parties and support for issue are on different planets and the system needs an overhaul. How about argument mapping

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  33. Manolo (14,032 comments) says:

    Let’s hope those Labour figures even go lower. Silent T is sunk, finished, finito, liquidado, morto.

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  34. Left Right and Centre (2,994 comments) says:

    Fact is, some of us know what the right thing is, but most people wouldn’t have a fucking clue.

    Yes – I lost my fucking clue some time back and still looking for it. What a sad nation this is when you’ve got some voters out there who wouldn’t vote Labour if only because David has a concertina for a mush. Tsk tsk.

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  35. ShawnLH (5,667 comments) says:

    “Labour’s total support is down from 30.5 per cent in June, but it is disproportionately down among male voters,”

    Labour has forgotten that it’s primary support comes from the working class, a class of people not known for having much tolerance for political correctness. Cunliffe’s apology for being a man has and will have a far more dire effect on Labour’s support than they think, and it’s already showing up.

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  36. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    Perhaps some would view this chart with some interest.

    I note how high National was scoring before the 2005 election in the polls and then…

    Whilst I have not doubt that National will win this election and never have doubted that – but by how much is still anyone’s guess and somehow I get the opinion there are a lot of chicken counters here that might have to settle for an omelette instead.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2005

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  37. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    The next polls….

    Does anyone know when TVNZ and TV3 will publish their poll results?????

    This weekend or next, or mid week for 3 ??

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  38. PaulL (6,040 comments) says:

    @Reid, @CharlieBrown: let’s assume you’re actually serious. Assume that you vote for a Labour mess this time around, and hope that everything will implode. What will actually happen? The evidence is that NZ will not vote for another “Roger Douglas” round of reforms – we’re not going to end up with ACT as the major party in govt. So what you are voting for is at least 3 years of Labour “mess”, at the end of which the absolute best you can hope for is another National govt that is about the same as the one we have now.

    The reality is that the political centre moves slowly. Clark crept it slowly to the left (inch by inch), Key is creeping it slowly back to the right (inch by inch). If we go left for 3 years, then we move 3 inches back to the left, so any incoming National govt will start 3 inches more left than today. If we go right for 3 more years, then the left start from 3 inches to the right of where we are today.

    In short, I think consciously voting for things to go wrong in the hopes that somehow NZers will miraculously become right wingers at the end of it is giving far to much credit to the average NZers intelligence (and to the ability of the right to sell the seriously right wing policies that you aspire to).

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  39. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    Judith…’
    2005 is of no relevance to 2014.

    Toward the end of that campaign four things happened:

    1. Labour falsified a claim in relation to National’s State House tenancy/eviction intentions. Dunedin as I recall.

    2. Don Brash almost fell into the water when he attempted to “walk the plank”.

    3. Don Brash made a monumental cock up with his comments on the Exclusive Brethren brochures (which happened to be truthful)….. and …..

    4. There was that tiny, itsy, bitsy bribe, called interest free student loans, and Brash went sliding down.

    The folks in Pipitea Street are smarter than those Thorndon Quay types running the 2005 campaign.

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  40. twofish (99 comments) says:

    Don’t bloody apologise, David Cunliffe – it bound to look bad, even in headlines –

    Give us the black box’
    Key to Putin: ‘Show leadership’
    Double death arrest
    Cunliffe: I work as hard as anyone
    One driver, two crashes

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  41. Grizz (610 comments) says:

    @Flipper, You forgot the free KFC on election day.

    History tells us that polling overestimates the National vote so there is every reason not to be complacent. I felt that the asset sales agenda and the anti-asset sales message from opposition parties cost National some votes in the last election. However the real kicker was the cuppagate thing which gave Winnie some momentum and may have taken a few votes off National in the end. So the question is, are there going to be events this election that will cost National a few votes and their chance of governing? Will KDC be this years exclusive brethren. Have Labour and the Greens been digging some dirt behind the scenes and come up with a scandal in the last week of the campaign that might start hurting National. Out of Desperation, will Labour/Greens offer a bribe?

    Bottom line, National need a smart, coordinated, energetic campaign or else they might find themselves sitting on the left hand side of the speaker. Will JK come back refreshed and rearing to go. From tomorrow it is game on.

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  42. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    PaulL – Clark implemented more in her first year in office than key has in 6. History shows that big change happens fast. Labour did alot in 3 years with Lange/Doublas, and campaigned on little of what they did. Richardson did everything in the first 3 years, clark\cullen made their massive tax and employment law changes (and thats just the first 2 that come to mind) in their first year.

    So your statement “The reality is that the political centre moves slowly” is utterly BS.

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  43. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    Grizzz….

    Cannot, do not dissgree

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  44. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    @ flipper (3,511 comments) says:
    July 20th, 2014 at 1:48 pm

    Ahhh yes flipper – but it demonstrates how quickly things can change in the polls, and that it ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

    We do not know what might come forth in the week or two preceding the election. In 2005 at this time out from the election, National was looking very healthy too.

    Anything can change the pattern of the polls – I doubt it will – but as the chart shows – it’s anyone’s game – at least Key knows that, which is why he’s constantly saying it will be close – he is aware how quickly things can go belly up!

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  45. lurcher1948 (151 comments) says:

    igm (1,409 comments) says:
    July 20th, 2014 at 11:24 am
    Mix with weirdos, genderqueens, leeches, and unionists, this is what you get.
    sounds like most posters here IGM fuck i know wanganui is shit for a fuckwit like you IGM aks farrar for more exposure???

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  46. thedavincimode (6,869 comments) says:

    So to sum up CharlieBrown, your criticism of Key relates to the fact that he campaigned on what he was going to do and, with the exception of the GST increase, stuck to it.

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  47. flipper (4,197 comments) says:

    But you are not fat Judith.. are you?

    On the other hand, I have no doubt that you can sing. :-)

    But of course, until midnight on the 19th September (nothing reportable on the 20th), anything could happen. Well, come to think of it., ChCh could be repeated on the 20th…..

    Pipitea Street however, is well aware of that, and almost every message sent therefrom emphasises that point.
    Awareness and risk aversion are one and the same in 2014. They are playing it well.

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  48. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    thedavincimode – National opposed every major change Helen introduced, and they campaigned on very little. The fact they opposed everything then let it all slide when in power is immoral.

    They had a policy of removing the maori seats and John Key went into government with the maori party when he didn’t need them. That is dishonest.

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  49. Reid (16,632 comments) says:

    your criticism of Key relates to the fact that he campaigned on what he was going to do and, with the exception of the GST increase, stuck to it.

    You’re being disingenuous DVM. You know perfectly both Charlie and I am saying there are many things wrong which Key should and could have fixed like student loans, if he cared more about the people who elected him than he does about himself and his record.

    As everyone knows, it’s easy to be popular. Why any parent could be very popular with their youngsters if that was the main criteria for bringing them up. But then we’d have a nation full of undisciplined wastrels, wouldn’t we.

    Same in politics. The correct thing is often not the popular thing, and Key knows it, you know it and so do many thousands of others.

    So don’t hide behind keeping promises as a rationale for not doing the right thing. When Prebble said that politics was hard, he wasn’t meaning it’s because it’s not easy to discern the will of the people, that’s easy. Muldoon and some of us do it intuitively, without polls. What he meant was it’s hard to sell something that people don’t want, when it’s the correct thing to do. But Key hasn’t done that, and that’s why he deserves not praise but condemnation, because in following the easy path, he thereby betrays the sacred trust of the high office he is elected into, same as Hulun did.

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  50. I Say Look Here (57 comments) says:

    CharlieBrown…. Insulted? Teased a little maybe, but if you want to say insulted – that’s your call.

    But it’s not all I’ve got, no. I agree a left coalition government would be a disaster, there’s no guarantee – given the nature of MMP – that it would only last one term, and the damage it would do might well be beyond the capacity of even the sharpest subsequent National-led government to repair in enough of a hurry.

    You want to call John Key a “poll-driven fruitcake” – I call him a smart, pragmatic, real-world leader. What his government has been doing is not mindlessly adopting Labour policies just to stay popular. They have been getting desirable change done at a pace which the electorate will accept. There would have been no point at all in them coming over all austere just to please your kind, and then getting their arses kicked at the next election, allowing the Left to get back in and undo all the good work.

    And I can’t see that many “popular” Labour policies for them to adopt in their third term anyway. They’re not going to be in a hurry to centralise control of the electricity industry, preserve mediocrity in the teaching profession so that they can cut class sizes, or reverse the burden of proof in rape cases. What we can expect to see is a government continuing the move to the right, at an accelerated but prudent pace.

    I think too you’re underestimating the effects on the parties of the left – particularly Labour obviously – of defeat this year. This is afterall the election they are supposed to be winning, but instead they are on track for humiliation. The Nats had the capacity to recover from 2002, but as things look at the moment there is no force in the Labour party capable of pulling them back on track, and strolling to victory in 2017.

    But let’s at least agree shall we that should they somehow happen to get in it would be fun watching the left coalition tear itself apart and wreck the credibility of leftwing politics in this country for decades to come, and shake on it?

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  51. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    lurcher the Labour loser: Forgotten your prosac again . . . you know where you will end up!

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  52. thedavincimode (6,869 comments) says:

    So to reiterate CharlieBrown, Key did what he said he would do. You understate what that is and what the changes mean in a structural sense.

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  53. masterman (19 comments) says:

    “Now there are other media too whose basic social role is quite different: it’s diversion. There’s the real mass media-the kinds that are aimed at, you know, Joe Six Pack — that kind. The purpose of those media is just to dull people’s brains.
    This is an oversimplification, but for the eighty percent or whatever they are, the main thing is to divert them. To get them to watch National Football League. And to worry about “Mother With Child With Six Heads,” or whatever you pick up on the supermarket stands and so on. Or look at astrology. Or get involved in fundamentalist stuff or something or other. Just get them away. Get them away from things that matter. And for that it’s important to reduce their capacity to think.” Noam Chomsky

    I think he’s summed up our media quite well judging by many of the comments on this site

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  54. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    Reid – I do think Hulun stuck to more what she thought was right rather than popular compared to Key. Hulun did afterall implement policies based on her ideology.

    I Say Look Here – Do you not believe that the left will ever get in again? And until National take a sharp and big turn to the right they will only go further to the left. So isn’t it inevitable we will get a government that is as left as labour is now? If so, wouldn’t you want it to be a one term trainwreck or an organised three term bohemoth.

    When in opposition would you have ever believed that a national government would keep paid parental leave, let alone increase it. I am very confident that national have the capacity to steal even more policies off Labour. And the labour policies national adopted and “desirable change” are not possible together, even under national.

    Did you ever vote for Labour under Helen Clark? As you seem to be fans of her government judging by your desire to keep her changes.

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  55. CharlieBrown (1,027 comments) says:

    thedavincimode – He kept maori seats.. not exactly doing what he said he would. He has quickly changed his mind on going into coalition with NZ first when only a few years ago he categorically ruled that out.

    Other than that, he hasn’t said much of what they would do. Which sums up that they went into power to stay in power and do nothing.

    Other than state asset sales which was a way to keep their donors happy. His promises have only been around what they won’t do.

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  56. georgebolwing (978 comments) says:

    Played right, National can pretty much assure itself of at least two further terms.

    The CCCP and NZ First are going after the same voters, with the same policies. Winston will be 70 next year and is starting to look his age. My prediction is that neither the CCCP or NZ First will be in parliament after this year’s election.

    Labour, well what can you say. After the disaster of 2002, National had a caucus with at least 6 MPs who looked like possible future leaders (Key, Collins, Ryall, Rich, Power, Brash). After the coming train smash, Labour will have no one. So unless they can crowbar Goff or King out of their seats and get someone decent in at a bi election, they are looking at a long period of having no viable leader.

    The Greens are going to suffer the repeated frustration of having one of the best brands in politics, but a complete inability to translate it into actual usable political power. Metiria Turei and Russel Norman are the second set of co-leaders who will have failed the party. How long will it take their supporter to realize that good intentions and a pure heart aren’t enough to become part of a viable government?

    Internet/Mana might actually get three MPs up, but will then get three MPs down at the next election, when their sugar-daddy departs.

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  57. s.russell (1,646 comments) says:

    Most of Judith’s posts are crazy. But I lament the fact that when she posts something sensible, many people seem to give her a downtick without even reading what she says. For the record: I entirely agree with her that this election could still be lost by National.
    a) Unforseen events could yet knock National’s popularity
    b) At every one of the last four elections the National vote has been significantly lower than polls predicted
    c) Deceived by polls predicting a walkover, National supporters may stay home, more than Left voters do.
    d) The Conservative Party could get 4.9% and fail to win a seat. (Note German election of 2013)
    I hope none of these things happen, but the reality is that any or all of them might – and the consequences could be severe. Remember: National won in 2011 by ONE seat, in effect.

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  58. Rich Prick (1,720 comments) says:

    TV3, 9.5%, wow, Cunliffe is now only slightly more popular than herpes.

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  59. David Garrett (7,524 comments) says:

    s.russell: I agree with you…but if you keep serving up shit, the cordon bleu meal you cook one day is liable to be overlooked at the servery…Plus her claimed life experience makes her about 106 not 56!!

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