Two new polls

July 17th, 2014 at 7:41 am by David Farrar

Two new out in the last 24 hours. A Roy Morgan last night and a Fairfax Ipsos poll this morning.

curiappa

This shows the current size and time weighted average of all the public polls.

Labour have been in the 20s in the last seven polls. The last two polls had them at 23.5% and 24.9%. The average of all polls has them polling below what they got in 2011. By comparison in Sep 2011 they were polling at 32.5% so they are now polling 7% lower than at the same stage of 2011.

This is no reason to be complacent, as National always drops away when in Government during an election campaign. However it is hard to see how Labour can credibly form a Government if they get a result in the 20s, even if it becomes mathematically possible.

Just 65 days to go until the election.

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46 Responses to “Two new polls”

  1. Chuck Bird (4,905 comments) says:

    nDPF, on what basis do the Maori Party get 3 seats?

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  2. bringbackdemocracy (429 comments) says:

    National will still need coalition options after September 20th.
    Good to see the Conservatives rising the Fairfax poll.

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  3. ShawnLH (6,668 comments) says:

    “Labour have been in the 20s in the last seven polls. The last two polls had them at 23.5% and 24.9%.”

    With just over two months to go before the election this trend is unlikely to change now. Labour are done.

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  4. David Farrar (1,437 comments) says:

    Until a poll comes out showing another party will win a seat, the assumption I make is that the party currently holding it till retain their seats. I may personally think this is unlikely, but I think it is important to have consistent assumptions, rather than go with my gut feeling.

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  5. EAD (1,451 comments) says:

    The Roy Morgan Poll is a sad day for all those who believe in liberty & individual responsibility over State Power.

    National 51% (up 3%)
    Labour Party 23.5% (down 4.5%)
    Greens are 15% (up 3%)

    Together the 3 headed left wing hydra have 89.5% of the public believing they are the worthy of their votes at the general election.

    Try as I might, but I can’t seem to slip a fag paper between these parties when it comes to welfarism, destructive high marginal tax rates from WFF, Political-correctness, borrow and spend politics, centralisation of power, State nannying and interference, social engineering, Maorification and separatism, vested interests and monopolies, dilution of our national culture through rapid mass immigration and enforced “multi-culturalism”.

    The choice is between bad and worse when you pick between this lot. Blue Team or Red Team? Tweedledee or Tweedledum?

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  6. mjw (401 comments) says:

    Oh dear.

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  7. Left Right and Centre (3,014 comments) says:

    MMP = coalition partners = is anything mathe’mate’ically possible ?

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  8. Left Right and Centre (3,014 comments) says:

    The latest polls say there’s 63.5 days to go to the election. +/- 3% margin of error.

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  9. mikenmild (12,390 comments) says:

    mathe’mate’ically
    Like it.

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  10. oldpark (412 comments) says:

    Have yet to hear the trending lefty Newstalk ZB and all their wee Labour Party sycophants mention the new polls even though they are scratching around for news articles.Not a good look for a station that depends on small businesses advertising for their income.Seems the imbedded green/labour party supporters have taken control of Newstalks news bulletins.

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  11. BlueSilver (26 comments) says:

    Two polls showing the Conservatives polling barely above 1%. I wonder how the CCCP fanboys will spin this one.

    Reminds me of the great Fitzgerald quote “Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter, tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther….And one fine morning– ”

    If only Colin were as cool as Gatsby he might have a chance :-)

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  12. nasska (12,101 comments) says:

    ….”Reminds me of the great Fitzgerald quote “Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter, tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther….And one fine morning– ””….

    Brilliant comment BlueSilver which cuts to the bone while describing the plight of the CCCP.

    Sadly though, it is destined to become smothered with red ticks as the emasculated Colin cuddlers wrap themselves protectively round their saviour. :)

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  13. Chuck Bird (4,905 comments) says:

    “Until a poll comes out showing another party will win a seat, the assumption I make is that the party currently holding it till retain their seats. ”

    Thanks David

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  14. bringbackdemocracy (429 comments) says:

    Nasska and BS
    In 2011 Fairfax had the Conservatives at 1.0% prior to the election. Today they have them at 1.3% and rising.

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  15. ShawnLH (6,668 comments) says:

    At most Craig needs to be able to bring in one or two extra members to be useful to National, assuming they gift him with East Coast Bays, though going on the polls National may not need them after all.

    I still think it makes strategic sense to bring Craig into the camp, just in case.

    The public can be fickle.

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  16. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    It is the trend that is important to note.

    In 2011 National started to track down 3 months before GE day. The red melons were on the up.

    Not so in 2014. Of course that trend could reverse. But the economy of 2011 was vastly inferior.

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  17. ShawnLH (6,668 comments) says:

    flipper, I think your right. The trend could reverse, but it’s beginning to look very consistent. And given that Labour has announced most of their big policies, and National is still to announce theirs, it’s looking grim for the Left. :)

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  18. Barnsley Bill (848 comments) says:

    I expect Labour to lift by at least 5 points in the next poll. Cunliffe has been on holiday and the publics exposure to him has been nil. That will give them a bump for sure.

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  19. Pete George (23,804 comments) says:

    In 2011 Fairfax had the Conservatives at 1.0% prior to the election. Today they have them at 1.3% and rising.

    Fairfax/IPSOS: Conservative 1.3% – up 0.4
    Roy Morgan: Conservative 1.0% – no change

    One poll up a bit, one static.

    Roy Morgan round to the nearest 0.5 so Conservatives could be anywhere between 0.76 and 1.24 and could have been last time so could easily have moved either way as much as Fairfax did.

    This level of polling can be quite inaccurate as only a handful of responses can make a difference – the Fairfax movement is about 3 people.

    I think Conservatives and Internet/Mana will be disappointed with their progress.

    Note that Conservatives have just had a burst of advertising – their attention seeking often seems to coincide with polling periods.

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  20. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    “Tojo” is possibly writing his apology for attempting to become a politician!

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  21. G152 (420 comments) says:

    In spite of all the dust the Left have raised they have gone nowhere in the polls…
    Must be getting heated in the War room as Goneliffe moves the deckchairs to Matts BIG PLAN

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  22. hj (7,166 comments) says:

    Roy Morgan
    Party Support

    National 51.0% (+3.0%)
    Labour 23.5% (-4.5%)
    Green 15.0% (+3.0%)
    NZ First 6.0% (+0.5%)
    Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
    United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
    ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
    Mana/Internet 1.5% (-1.0%)
    Conservative 1.0% (nc)

    Fairfax
    Party Support

    National 54.8% (-1.7%)
    Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
    Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
    NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
    Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
    United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
    ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
    Mana 1.2% (nc)
    Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

    NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

    Party Support

    National 50.4% (-0.4%)
    Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
    Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
    NZ First 3.6% (nc)
    Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
    United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
    ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
    Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
    Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)
    Immigration

    Levels about right 50%
    Too high 35%

    3 News Reid Research poll May 2014

    National 50.3% (+4.4%)
    Labour 29.5% (-1.7%)
    Green 10.2% (-1.0%)
    ACT 0.5% (-0.6%)
    Maori 0.6% (-0.9%)
    United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
    Mana 0.2% (-0.9%)
    NZ First 5.6% (+0.7%)
    Conservative 2.3% (+0.4%)
    Internet 0.6% (+0.6%)
    Immigration

    62% support tighter restrictions on immigration
    35% oppose

    One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2014
    Party Support

    National 51.0% (+4.0%)
    Labour 30.0% (-1.0%)
    Green 11.0% (nc)
    ACT 0.8% (+0.5%)
    Maori 0.8% (+0.1%)
    United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
    Mana 0.4% (+0.4%)
    NZ First 4.8% (-2.2%)
    Conservative 1.3% (-1.0%)
    Internet 0.7% (+0.7%)
    House Prices

    68% support register of foreign ownership of property, 22% against
    57% support more immigration controls to reduce house prices, 33% against

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  23. hj (7,166 comments) says:

    The [humble] Royal Society of New Zealand has undertaken a major review of the rapidly changing New Zealand population, and the implications of this for the economy, social cohesion, education, and health. Its purpose is to promote informed discussion of the implications of the 2013 New Zealand Census for understanding the changing nature of New Zealand society.
    http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/expert-advice/challenging-issues/our-futures/

    the one question the gutless wonders don’t ask is whether population growth is good overall.

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  24. Changeiscoming (202 comments) says:

    PG (and others)- polling for minor parties is often not accurate which can lead to large descrepencies on Election day.

    for example watching the Aussie election night coverage last year where the Palmer party got over 5% which was a big surprise to the commentators as the polling had them very low. The polling statistician had to defend polling saying something like it didn’t pick up the minor parties well.

    Even our own polls – take for example the last poll before the last election had no mention of the Conservatives but they ending up getting 2.65%

    Undecides is also a big factor – I suppose disproportionate amount don’t go to the main parties.

    I wouldn’t be taking the polls as gospel – It not possible for two polls to come out at the same time with vastly different results.

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  25. hj (7,166 comments) says:

    How many interviewers have foreign accents? After a good friendly lead up “which party will you vote for”? “Layba!”

    My friend some years back said had an interviewer (young woman) knock on the door. In the course of the interview one of his responses was “Too much Maori”! to which the young woman replied “Oh! that’s funny, someone up the road said we should have more Maori”. My friend telling me the story thought: “yeah right!”. Given some peoples strong feelings I wonder if the interviewer is tempted to falsify?

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  26. Pete George (23,804 comments) says:

    A couple of comments from Fairfax coverage of their poll:

    The number of National voters contacted by our pollsters has not markedly changed since our last poll in June – the real movement is among Labour-leaning voters, who appear to have become a highly volatile bunch at this point in the electoral cycle.

    I’ve seen other anlysis that suggests similar – NAtional suport is relatively stable while Labopur’s is all over the place (like their leader and their caucus).

    Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

    But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

    That’s a lot of undecided vote (that may or may not front up at the polling booth).

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  27. virtualmark (1,306 comments) says:

    The interesting bit will be watching to see where NZ First end up in the election. Quite a lot rides on whether they crest the 5% bar or not, but the polls have them bouncing around between 3-ish% and 6-ish%.

    Winston is adept at pulling a rabbit of an issue out of the hat in the last 1-2 weeks that galvanises the befuddled and the scared to vote for him to push NZ First over the 5% hurdle. I expect he’s looking for this year’s rabbit as we speak …

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  28. s.russell (1,649 comments) says:

    Actually, I think 15 per cent undecided is quite low.Historically, I think that segment has usually been much higher. DPF would probably know. I suspect however, that a lot of those undecided voters are lefties, torn between bad options, so that block might break a little in favour of the left come polling day.

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  29. Colville (2,318 comments) says:

    virtualmark.

    I see all minor parties from the Greens on down reaping a bumper crop this election.

    I am betting its 50/50 if Greens will outscore Labour on the night. Its going to be close.

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  30. Pete George (23,804 comments) says:

    I expect he’s looking for this year’s rabbit as we speak …

    Peters is a well practiced political oportunist, but he looks like having some major grandstanding competition this year. There’s a rather large Kaninchen planning on hopping up and down on the campaign hat.

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  31. Manolo (14,169 comments) says:

    Why is comrade Matt keeping his job? Silent T is either blind or do not want to see the shambles, the collapse, around him.

    The ABC faction must be plotting new ways to topple their gaffe-prone and incompetent leader.

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  32. ShawnLH (6,668 comments) says:

    Manolo, Matt’s undeserved reputation as a skilled campaigner is, or at least should be, in tatters. I never bought the claim anyway. Since he joined Cunliffe’s team Labour’s campaign has been an utter shambles, and that’s putting it kindly. Cripes, Goff ran a better campaign than this train wreck.

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  33. SPC (5,665 comments) says:

    So National’s coalition partner prospects – ACT, United, Maori Party and Conservatives total 3.1% between them.

    Of them – is the MP now also in need of National electorate votes?

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  34. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    Labour have no more weapons in their arsenal. Their Congress couldn’t do it, their education bribes couldn’t do it and the alternative budget couldn’t’ do it. Cunliffe’s man apology crapped all over that messaging confirming in the minds of middle NZ that Labour is in the thrall of minority interests hell bent on political correctness. Old time male Labour voters have finally had enough and will either stay home or vote National.

    I love the re-arranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic going on. Mike Williams claimed on Nine to Noon that Labour’s own polling showed a jump after the Congress and yet their own favourite poll has them plunging into sub 25% territory.

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  35. emmess (1,398 comments) says:

    I thought that last Fairfax poll was a leading indicator, now Labour’s polling has consolidated under 25%. Poor polling will become a self fulfilling prophecy.
    Watch out for the next leading indicator poll with them around 20%.

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  36. Unity (639 comments) says:

    I’m willing the Conservatives to do better because I think we need a fresh Party in coalition with National especially to try and reverse their racial policy/activities. We need equality under the law in this country and the Conservatives will bring this to the table in coalition talks. I do hope more of the public will use their heads instead of just continuing down the same old road they have always trodden and see the benefits.

    However, the polls are very encouraging giving National such a lead and showing a Labour/Green government as a no go, unless something drastic changes between now and the election. However, I firmly believe National have strayed from their core beliefs under Key and need to pull back to where they used to be. I feel one law for all and binding referenda are crucial. Bill English campaigned for one law for all in 2002 I think it was, Don Brash the same in 2005 but they have now departed a long way from that. The Conservatives would pull them back.

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  37. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    Unity says….

    ” However, I firmly believe National have strayed from their core beliefs under Key and need to pull back to where they used to be. ….”

    How so?

    I give you that in politics perception might be reality, but sometimes the shibboleth is just that….

    But is not the reality that, within broad guidelines, do what has to be done; walk down the roads that get to the top of the mountain ????

    Translation: We may not like everything, but that “everything” is one hell of a lot better than any alternative.

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  38. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    Just another twist of the (tale) labour-red melon-peters tail….

    In the Fairfax poll, 15.3 % said they were undecided.

    If those 15.3 % were to be allocated pro rata (reasonable?) the result would be..

    National 63.2%
    Labour 28.7
    RM Green 14.3
    Peters 3.0

    Not good for the political crazies, is it?

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  39. Rich Prick (1,750 comments) says:

    0.8% think Cunliffe was right to apologise for the horrors in his underpants. Given Labour has nothing else left, perhaps he should keep on doing that, and inch the support up.

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  40. Zapper (1,048 comments) says:

    It seems pretty clear Labour and the left have trended down since Cunliffe came along. They got a bump in 2011 because they had the partial private ownership issue which they lied about and started a “Stop Asset Sales” campaign. What have they got this time? That was a good policy but a gift to the hysterical left, and National still won. 51% this time would be fantastic, but obviously still plenty of time.

    I saw in The Age yesterday an article about a campaign to get all Kiwis in Australia to vote for a single issue “Kiwi rights” party. The most interesting part of the story was the mention of online voting for Kiws overseas this year. Haven’t found anything on it but it would increase turnout. It’s not much of a chore to vote here normally but easy to imagine the lazy and apathetic not bothering.

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  41. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    This is great news!

    The trends seem pretty solid. Labour slipping way down into the low 20s, the Nats gradually rising above 50%.
    That overall trend is likely to continue.

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  42. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (900 comments) says:

    Wait until Crim DotCon releases da bomb….

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  43. Ross Miller (1,618 comments) says:

    Unity 10.49 … when I visit the Conservative blog all I see is comments trashing National and John Key (sometimes quite nasty ones) with nary a mention of Labour. Quite different from the normally respectful tone of comment from ACT and UF Party members. I also recall the comment by Mr Craig that he could just as easily do a deal with Labour.

    Just why then should National even contemplate a deal with the Conservatives? Talk about flaky.

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  44. Pete George (23,804 comments) says:

    If those 15.3 % were to be allocated pro rata (reasonable?) the result would be..

    Except that analysis suggests National support is fairly stable and most moving to undecided are ex Labour.

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  45. Johnboy (17,051 comments) says:

    I can’t believe that folk in New Zealand don’t want to be led by a Harvard chap that looks like a fucking Turtle from the neck up!

    What’s wrong with the stupid populace? :)

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  46. Changeiscoming (202 comments) says:

    Inside word – JK is going to flip on MM and give CC the node in ECB. Conseratives to get an estimated 6.75% of the vote on nat polling.

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