TVNZ have just broadcast their first full poll since the budget. It is very close to the smaller one off poll they did just after the budget. That one had National 3% ahead and this one has National 4% ahead.
National is at 44% and Labour at 40%. No minor party is over 5%. Greenns at 4% and ACT at 2% would probably be out of Parliament. NZ First at 3%, United at 2%, Maori Party at 2% and Progressive at 0.1% would all keep some seats due to holding an electorate.
So what would Parliament look like on this poll:
National 58 seats
Labour 52 seats
NZ First 4 seats
United Future 3 seats
Maori Party 3 seats
Progressive 1 seat
The most likely Government is National/United Future with 61/121 seats. Labour would need support of NZ First, Progressive, United Future and NZ First to govern.