Tonight’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll is fascinating.
Labour is up 6% to 45% – something they will feel pleased with.
However National is only down 1% to 41%. Labour have taken 3% off the Greens and 2% off NZ First.
This is the second poll to show the Greens well below the 5% mark. It is far too early to make predictions, but it is well known that the strongest support for the Greens has been the under 30s and students, and Labour’s student loans policy has obviously attracted a lot of that vote.
Just as ACT claims their possible demise is due to National stealing their policy, it would indeed be an irony if the same applied to the Greens and Labour.
So on this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power. The minor parties have never polled lower (however this poll often is harder on them than other polls) and you would have two large parties, one minor party with seven MPs and three parties with an MP each (Progressive, Maori and United).
It will be interesting to see how other polls paint the picture.