The average of the polls

The final average of the public polls from Curiablog is:

  1. National 59 (46.8%)
  2. Labour 44 (34.6%)
  3. Green 10 (8.1%)
  4. ACT 3 (2.6%)
  5. Maori 4 (2.4%)
  6. United Future 1 (0.5%)
  7. Progressive 1 (0.2%)

National/ACT/United Future = 63/122 seats
Labour/Prog/Greens = 55/122 seats

If you take a weighted average of just the last five polls released this week, then National and Labour lose a seat each to ACT and Greens respectively, so not much change to the overall balance.

So if the average of the public polls is correct (and I am not saying it will be), then who will be in and out of Parliament?

The only seats projected to change hands on the basis of boundary changes or public polls are Taupo, Rotorua, and Palmerston North. Personally I think there will be more movement than that, so this is not a prediction – it is just reflecting the seats that had had polls showing a change.

National

  1. John Key – Helensville
  2. Bill English – Clutha Southland
  3. Gerry Brownlee – Ilam
  4. Simon Power – Rangitikei]
  5. Nick Smith – Nelson
  6. Tony Ryall – Bay of Plenty
  7. Judith Collins – Papakura
  8. Maurice Williamson – Pakuranga
  9. David Carter – List #1
  10. Anne Tolley – East Coast
  11. Murray McCully – East Coast Bays
  12. Lockwood Smith – Rodney
  13. Wayne Mapp – North Shore
  14. Chris Finlayson – List #2
  15. Tim Groser – List #3
  16. Steven Joyce – List #4
  17. Georgina te Heuheu – List #5
  18. Nathan Guy – List #6
  19. Lindsay Tisch – Waikato
  20. Pansy Wong – Botany
  21. John Carter – Northland
  22. Phil Heatley – Whangarei
  23. Paul Hutchison – Hunua
  24. Shane Ardern – Taranaki-King Country
  25. Richard Worth – List #7
  26. Tau Henare – List #8
  27. Sandra Goudie – Coromandel
  28. Eric Roy – Invercargill
  29. Jonathan Coleman – Northcote
  30. Kate Wilkinson – List #9
  31. Chris Tremain – Napier
  32. Chester Borrows – Whanganui
  33. Craig Foss – Tukituki
  34. Allan Peachey – Tamaki
  35. Sam Lotu-liga – List #10
  36. Hekia Parata – List #11
  37. Melissa Lee – List #12
  38. Kanwal JS Bakshi – List #13
  39. Jo Goodhew – Rangitata
  40. Jacqui Dean – Waitaki
  41. Paula Bennett – List #14
  42. Chris Auchinvole – List #15
  43. Nicky Wagner – List #16
  44. David Bennett – Hamilton East
  45. Jackie Blue – List #17
  46. Katrina Shanks – List #18
  47. Colin King – Kaikoura
  48. Paul Quinn – List #19
  49. Michael Woodhouse – List #20
  50. John Hayes – Wairarapa
  51. Simon Bridges – Tauranga
  52. Amy Adams – Selwyn
  53. Louise Upston – Taupo
  54. Todd McClay – Rotorua
  55. Tim Macindoe – List #21
  56. Aaron Gilmore – List #22
  57. Nikki Kaye – List #23
  58. Cam Calder – List #24
  59. Malcolm Plimmer – Palmerston North

Labour

  1. Helen Clark – Mt Albert
  2. Michael Cullen – List #1
  3. Phil Goff – Mt Roskill
  4. Annette King – Rongotai
  5. Parekura Horomia – Ikaroa-Rawhiti
  6. Pete Hodgson – Dunedin North
  7. Chris Carter – Te Atatu
  8. David Cunliffe – New Lynn
  9. Maryan Street – List #2
  10. Nanaia Mahuta – Hauraki-Waikato
  11. Winnie Laban – Mana
  12. Rajen Prasad – List #3
  13. Ruth Dyson – Port Hills
  14. Trevor Mallard – Hutt South
  15. Lianne Dalziel – Christchurch East
  16. Shane Jones – List #4
  17. David Parker – List #5
  18. Clayton Cosgrove – Waimakariri
  19. Darren Hughes – Otaki
  20. Jacinda Ardern – List #6
  21. Raymond Huo – List #7
  22. Sue Moroney – List #8
  23. Mita Ririnui – List #9
  24. William Sio – Mangere
  25. Moana Mackey – List #10
  26. Phil Twyford – List #11
  27. Charles Chauvel – List #12
  28. Carol Beaumont – Maungakiekie
  29. Kelvin Davis – List #13
  30. Steve Chadwick – List #14
  31. Ashraf Choudhary – List #15
  32. Lynne Pillay – Waitakere
  33. Darien Fenton – List #16
  34. Damien O’Connor – West Coast-Tasman
  35. Judith Tizard – AUckland Central
  36. Mahara Okeroa – Te Tai Tonga
  37. Martin Gallagher – Hamilton West
  38. Clare Curran – Dunedin South
  39. Grant Robertson – Grant Robertson
  40. Chris Hipkins – Rimutaka
  41. Brendon Burns – Christchurch Central
  42. Ross Robertson – Manukau East
  43. George Hawkins – Manurewa
  44. Harry Duynhoven

Green

  1. Jeanette Fitzsimons
  2. Russel Norman
  3. Sue Bradford
  4. Metira Turei
  5. Sue Kedgley
  6. Keith Locke
  7. Kevin Hague
  8. Catherine Delahunty
  9. Kennedy Graham
  10. David Clendon

ACT

  1. Rodney Hide – Epsom
  2. Heather Roy
  3. Roger Douglas

Maori

  1. Tariana Turia – Te Tai Hauauru
  2. Pita Sharples – Tamaki Makaurau
  3. Hone Harawira – Te Tai Tokerau
  4. Te Ururoa Flavell – Waiariki

United Future

  1. Peter Dunne – Ohariu

Progressive

  1. Jim Anderton – Wigram

I stress again these are not predictions. They are what the public polls indicate, but polls have not been done in all seats.

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