Goff in the polls

I find it interesting to look at the trend in the , to see when it went wrong. TV3 have polled four times this year, and here is how Goff has done:

Preferred PM

  1. Feb – 3.7%
  2. Apr – 9.1%
  3. Aug 6.5%
  4. Oct 4.7%

Goff Net Positive Performance

  1. Feb +16%
  2. Apr +13.9%
  3. Aug -7.2%
  4. Oct -3.7%

So Goff was doing relatively well, and had some upwards momentum up until April, but by August he was going backwards and public opinion had soured on him going from +14% to -7%.

Why? I think it was primarily his role in the Richard Worth saga. He damaged his brand quite significantly, and the polls are showing it will take a fair while to recover.

Tv3 also asks on certain characteristics. They have asked in pre-May and post-July. What happened after May:

  • Goff drops 9% as a capable leader
  • Goff drops 10% as good in a crisis
  • Goff drops 11% for sound judgement
  • Goff drops 8% for honest
  • Goff drops 9% for understands economic problems
  • Goff increases 6% for out of touch
  • Goff drops 4% for in touch with Maori

Now these were not Key vs Goff – this was people just rating Goff.

So his problem isn’t where he started off. He started off in the first half of 2009 with fairly good ratings. But his stuff ups towards the middle of the year damaged him quite badly, and he is looking to end the year lower than he started it on most criteria.

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