Kiwi Poll Guy calculates the probabilities

Kiwi Poll Guy blogs:

One of the major goals of this site is to try and predict election results based on recent relevant political polling. This is intended to include not just the total number of seats won by each party, but also viable coalition possibilities and electorate level results.

Today I present the simulation results at the candidate level, including probabilities for each major or minor party candidate to be elected to parliament by either winning an electorate or being selected off their party list.

So what are the odds he calculates? Note that these are based purely on probability calculations based on poll data, and don’t take into account local circumstances such as popularity of a local MP. And the probabilities below are of them holding their electorate seats – not whether or not they would also come in on the list.

His probabilities are:

100% chance of retaining seats

  • National – Key, English, Brownlee, Power, Smith N, Ryall, Collins, Williamson, Tolley, McCully, Smith L, Mapp, Guy, Tisch, Wong, Carter J, Heatley, Hutchison, Ardern, Goudie, Roy, Coleman, Tremain, Borrows, Foss, Peachey, Goodhew, Dean, Auchinvole, Bennett D, King, Hayes, Bridges, Upston, McClay, Macindoe, Kaye
  • Labour – King, Sio, Shearer, Hawkins
  • Maori – Turia, Sharples, Harawira, Flavell

90% to 99% chance of retaining seats

  • National – Bennett P 98%, Young 96%
  • Labour – Goff 95%, Carter C 97%, Dalziel 97%, Anderton 98%, Robertson R 97%, Curran 93%
  • ACT – Hide 95%

50% to 89% chance of retaining seats

  • National – Lotu-Iiga 87%,
  • Labour – Horomira 76%, Hodgson 86%, Cunliffe 65%, Mahuta 62%, Laban 74%,
  • United Future – Dunne 73%
  • Maori – Katene 60%

Under 50% chance of retaining seats

  • Labour – Dyson 19%, Mallard 37%, Cosgrove 4%, Hipkins 24%, Burns 25%, Robertson G 9%, Lees-Galloway 10%,

Now as I said, this is a straight probability calculation based on current showing National more than 20% ahead of Labour on the party vote, and applying that to the electorate vote. also works out the probability of each MP and Candidate coming in as a List MP, based on teh 2008 lists.

The probabilities are not predictions. For example I would give Grant Robertson a far higher chance than 9% of retaining his seat – but that is based not on a uniform swing to National, but local knowledge of the Wellington Central seat.

As we get closer to the election, and we also get electorate polling data into the mix, I’ll be checking Kiwi Poll Guy’s numbers more and more often.

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