A number of blogs have done their own analysis of the different party lists, but they have all made the same fatal mistake. They have looked only at the party list, and not at what electorates a party will win. For what counts is not what number someone is at on a party list, but whether that ranking will get them into Parliament. For example, 20 is a great rating on National’s list but a lousy one for the Greens.
On the latest Fairfax poll I find:
National would have 21 female MPs, which is 30% of their caucus
Labour would have 11 female MPs, which is 34% of their caucus
So overall on the current poll ratings Labour does slightly better than National with female MPs and Pacific MPs, but National does slightly better with Maori MPs and Asian MPs.
The full blog post details the projected number of female, Maori, Pacific and Asian MPs for National, Labour and the Greens on the Fairfax poll. It also looks at how many MPs of Maori descent in total there would be in Parliament.