NOTE: Georgia and Louisiana have the 50 plus 1 vote rule in place. If this is not achieved by the leading candidate a two way run off election between the two highest polling candidates will be held.
Currently Democrats hold 55 seats (including 2 independents) and the Republicans 45. So the GOP needs to make a net gain of 6.
The GOP will pickup Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. They look good to also pickup Arkansas and Colorado. That would give them 50 seats. So what of the other seats?
- Alaska: The gap has closed keeping Begich (D) in the race. A difficult state to poll according to pollsters.
- Kansas: Still too close to call. Orman (Independent) seems to be doing a Winston Peters and sitting on the fence regarding who he would caucus with.
- Iowa: Ernst (R) has held a consistent but narrow lead in the polls. This is no certainty for Republicans though.
- Georgia: Nunn (D) is putting up a tough fight against Perdue (R). The polls are still predicting a tight race. Possibly will end up in a run off election.
- Kentucky: McConnell looks safe here now for the GOP.
- Louisiana: This may well also end up in a run off election.
- New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) is holding against Brown (R). The gap has closed somewhat. The polls are showing different results.
- North Carolina: Hagan (D) continues to lead but isn’t by any means safe yet.
So it’s still advantage to the GOP if the polls are right but it isn’t a done deal yet. If they lose Kansas and Georgia they would need to win three out of Iowa, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina.
Nate Silver’s analysis is here