Curia’s monthly newsletter is out. The summary is:
There were two political voting polls in August – a Roy Morgan and a NZ Herald DigiPoll
The average of the public polls has National 22% ahead of Labour in August, up 8% from July. The current seat projection is centre-right 64 seats, centre-left 48 which would see National able to govern alone.
A new section shows the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.
In the United States Donald Trump is polling at almost three times the level of the next highest polling contender in the Republican field. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s net favourability rating has dropped 7% in one month.
In the UK the refugee crisis in Europe appears to be impacting support for the UK staying within the EU. Net support for remaining has dropped from +20% to +7%. Jeremy Corbyn leads in the polls to become the next UK Leader.
In Australia Abbott’s approval ratings have plummeted this month and the Liberals and Labor are tied in polls for the Canning by-election despite the Liberals willing it by 24% in 2013.
In Canada the trial of suspended Senator Mike Duffy hurts Stephen Harper, as testimony about an alleged bribe from Harper’s former chief of staff is aired. The NDP continue to lead in the polls.
We also carry details of polls on the NZ Flag, future party leaders, private prisons, foreign house buyers, TPP plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
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The new section is also below:
9 years ago 3 years ago 1 year ago 3 months ago Last month This month National 43% 44% 49% 50% 46% 51% Labour 41% 32% 26% 29% 32% 29% Greens 6% 14% 13% 11% 13% 10% NZ First 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% Nat over Labour +2% +12% +23% +21% +14% +22% Nat over Lab/Gre -4% -2% +10% +10% +2% +12% Right Direction 50% 64% 63% 51% 54% Wrong Direction 35% 25% 27% 33% 34% Net Direction +15% +39% +36% +18% +20% Preferred PM National Leader 15% 45% 47% 44% 40% 40% Labour Leader 37% 13% 12% 9% 8% 8% NZ First Leader 4% 4% 5% 9% 7% 7%
National’s party vote is around the same as three months ago and a year ago. It is significantly higher than three years ago and 10% higher than Labour were at in Government nine years ago.
Labour’s party vote is up from a year ago and the same as three months ago. It is lower though than where they were at three years ago and 12% lower than where National were at in Opposition nine years ago.
The Green’s party vote is lower than it was a year ago and three years ago.
NZ First party vote is much the same as three months ago, but higher than a year ago and three years ago.
The net direction is greatly lower than three months ago and a year ago, but still positive. It is higher than the same time three years ago.
Key’s Preferred PM rating is 3% higher than Helen Clark’s of nine years ago. It is lower though than where he was a year ago and three years ago.
Little’s Preferred PM rating of 8% is much the same as three months ago. It is however lower than David Cunliffe a year ago, and David Shearer 3 years ago. Comparing to National in Opposition nine years ago, it is around half the level Don Brash was at.
Peters’ Preferred PM rating is higher than a year ago, and three years ago.