Germany is also voting this weekend

is also voting this weekend, on Sunday. As you can see in the above chart, the SPD almost were at parity with Merkel’s CDU but they are again 15% behind.

So there is little doubt Merkel will remain Chancellor but who will make up her Government. The parties likely to make the Bundestag are:

  • CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 36.6%
  • SPD (Socialist) 22.6%
  • Left (commies) 9.6%
  • Greens 7.7%
  • FDP (liberal centrist) 9.0%
  • AfD (nationalist) 10.1%

So the 598 seats might be:

  • CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 229
  • SPD (Socialist) 142
  • Left (commies) 60
  • Greens 48
  • FDP (liberal centrist) 57
  • AfD (nationalist) 62

No-one wants to be in coalition with the AfD. In fact they are even squabbling over who will have to sit next to them in Parliament.

A CDU/FDP coalition only has 286 seats and they need 300 to govern so what is quite possible is a CDU/FDP/Green coalition. The German Greens are far more moderate and sensible than the NZ Greens and aren’t just socialists with a green tinge.

You could get another CDU/SPD grand coalition but this is less likely.

SPD/Left/Greens only total 259 seats so would need FDP support (unlikely) to be able to govern.

Personally I’ll be quite relieved if Merkel remains Chancellor. She is a beacon of stability. I think she mishandled the refugee crisis, but has been good in most other areas.

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