Germany is also voting this weekend, on Sunday. As you can see in the above chart, the SPD almost were at parity with Merkel’s CDU but they are again 15% behind.
So there is little doubt Merkel will remain Chancellor but who will make up her Government. The parties likely to make the Bundestag are:
- CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 36.6%
- SPD (Socialist) 22.6%
- Left (commies) 9.6%
- Greens 7.7%
- FDP (liberal centrist) 9.0%
- AfD (nationalist) 10.1%
So the 598 seats might be:
- CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 229
- SPD (Socialist) 142
- Left (commies) 60
- Greens 48
- FDP (liberal centrist) 57
- AfD (nationalist) 62
No-one wants to be in coalition with the AfD. In fact they are even squabbling over who will have to sit next to them in Parliament.
A CDU/FDP coalition only has 286 seats and they need 300 to govern so what is quite possible is a CDU/FDP/Green coalition. The German Greens are far more moderate and sensible than the NZ Greens and aren’t just socialists with a green tinge.
You could get another CDU/SPD grand coalition but this is less likely.
SPD/Left/Greens only total 259 seats so would need FDP support (unlikely) to be able to govern.
Personally I’ll be quite relieved if Merkel remains Chancellor. She is a beacon of stability. I think she mishandled the refugee crisis, but has been good in most other areas.