I think Trump will be elected President in 2024
It depresses me to write this, as I think Trump should be in prison. But I think he is very likely to be elected President again in 2024.
The logic is simple. Whoever is the Republican candidate is likely to win, and Trump is almost certain to be the candidate if he stands.
If it comes to a choice between a candidate strong on democracy and weak on the economy vs a candidate weak on democracy and strong on the economy, the latter will win out.
Biden has a -22% approval rating on the economy. Unless there is a major improvement by 2024, then that will sink him.
A CNN poll found Biden’s approval on the economy to be -32%. By demographic they are:
- Men -30%
- Women -32%
- People of Colour -9%
- Under 45s -29%
- Under $50k income -28%
- Independents -41%
I hope I am wrong. Maybe if neither Biden nor Harris stands, a different Democrat could beat Trump.