Guest Post: Traction with Ticks.
Owen Jennings writes:
Last week our worthy host, David, suggested that any encouragement to National party supporters to split their vote would be madness. It’s a view that is reinforced on any busy street corner adorned with blue-backgrounded billboards carrying the need for National to gain both party and electorate votes.
In every election since MMP was unfortunately foisted on us, such entreaties would have been logical and supportable. David’s reaction was right, “two ticks, blue” was a winning strategy for National based on historical data. Looking back over all those elections – except the last one and, now this one coming, National had a sensible approach.
But this isn’t “every election”. It is different, unique. Centre parties who have dominated politics forever have found themselves polling in the mid and high ‘twenties’ only. It’s at a level that will yield less than 40 seats in Parliament even allowing for “wasted” votes from parties under the 5% threshold to be factored in. National and Labour could easily end up with a Party List vote that awards them as low as 30 seats total. Remember its only the Party List vote that determines how many seats a party wins. Electorate seats are filled first and the names on the party’s list are added.
That could well mean when the votes are added up and Electorate seats are added in first National will have won more of those Electorate seats than they are entitled to with their Party Vote.
National could quite likely win over 37 – 38 Electorate seats. They could even win a couple of new ones – Wigram from boundary changes and Auckland Central from a strong candidate.
At 29% in current polling National would get 35 to 37 seats – if polling figures reflect into Party List votes. Remember National has got down as low as 21% in 2002 election.
It is possible they will pick up a few points, but the fact remains with their high number of Electorate Seats the following outcomes are almost certain:
- All of National’s Party List votes will be wasted – have no effect at all.
- National will be in Opposition for at least the next three years.
- The chance of Labour and its motley mob of mates, who have already figured out splitting votes, are likely to win. They have figured out “overhang”.
It is as simple as this. If National voters put the needs of the country ahead of party and conclude that a Coalition of the centre right is urgently needed, they desperately need to split their vote.
Hold their nose, shut one eye or do whatever is needed to use their Party List to vote for NZFirst or ACT.
Otherwise, the unthinkable could happen and we are into heavy taxing, runaway expenditure, increasing debt – an outcome that we could not recover from in a lifetime.
Is this suggesting there should be calls from the top National to drop the “two ticks, blue” campaign? No. It is simply saying that circumstances have changed from previous elections. Voters who want the centre right cannot afford ‘wasted votes’ when the centre left is strategising to create its own overhang and take the House.
It is country first, party aside.
Splitting votes. Supporting National’s electorate candidates ahead of anyone else with the Electorate vote.
It’s a case of voting for a Coalition, not a party. A partner. With the Party List vote.
The alternative is unthinkable.
DPF: I allow guest posts from people who disagree with me. My original post is here.
One is a former ACT MP, and it is no surprise he advocates for something that will help ACT.
My view is crystal clear. Any attempt to win the election through an overhang strategy will almost certainly fail (to succeed you would need a massive overhang), would devastate National in a way it may never recover from, and would generate a huge public backlash.
The way to get the Government re-elected is to win more party votes than the Opposition. It is that simple.
National MPs are not interchangeable with NZ First (or ACT MPs). If you want more National MPs and more National Ministers, then party vote National. If you are an ACT supporter and want more ACT MPs, then sure party vote ACT.
But do not think you are actually helping National by not giving them your party vote. You are not.