The answer is basically nothing, but write some sad letters.

The Herald reports:

Robertson wanted more information from KiwiRail on the cost and risk of alternative options to the mega ferries.

He specifically wanted to know: “The extent to which seeking to renegotiate the shipbuilding contract to procure ferries that are more like-for-like with respect to the current fleet and/or are not rail-enabled would allow for landside infrastructure costs to be reduced and forecast with greater certainty”.

McLean replied to Robertson on June 6 saying KiwiRail had considered three alternative options.

The option of three new medium rail-enabled ships was estimated to cost $3.02b, two new large ships which were not rail-enabled was $2.59b, and a “do minimum” scenario of procuring and running three second-hand ships was $1.34b, KiwiRail estimated.

All options, including retaining the mega ferries, were Net Present Value (NPV) negative, meaning the cost of capital exceeds the long-term revenues it enables. 

So all three options didn’t make economic sense, yet the Government decided to carry on with the $3 billion one instead of the $1.3 billion one!

On July 12, Treasury and Ministry of Transport officials warned ministers the mega ferry project was still relatively early in its life, with detailed design work yet to be finalised and without contractually agreed costs.

They warned the final cost of the project could approach $4b.

Do I hear $5 billion? Quite conceivable.

A reminder that Bluebridge crosses the Cook Strat eight times a day and the cost to the taxpayer isn’t even $5.

David Seymour has done very well here. A few notes from me as the model/curriculum designer for two of the 2014-15 launched Charter Schools. South Auckland Middle School and Middle School West Auckland.

1. While I was involved the schools thrived at the NCEA L1 for leavers from the Middle Schools exceeded 80%.
2. Soon after they became Designated Character (State) Schools – I left the Villa Education Trust that have established the schools. The first tranche of data was poor and the schools are now actively avoiding OIAs and statistical evaluation.
3. There is huge need in NZ for schools that genuinely challenge the State system. In our State schools less that 40% of Maori or Pasifika students are fully attending. There is massive waste of resource and it should be notes that the first response of the PPTA today was to go on strike and deprive students of an afternoon at school.

I am in the process of forming a new Board to develop a number of brilliant schools. If there is anyone out there willing to come alongside I would love to hear from you.

Alwyn Poole

alwyn.poole@gmail.com
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

How did this ad get seen by more than one person and not stopped?

Interestingly, it isn’t too bad if you play it in reverse!

The Whanganui District Council released:

Whanganui District Council’s elected representatives have called for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and condemned all acts of violence and terror against civilians on all sides.

I’m sure Hamas will agree immediately now that the mighty Whanganui Council has demanded a ceasefire.

Kata MacNamara reports:

Details of Tony Blakely’s involvement in the New Zealand Government’s response to the pandemic raise serious questions about the work of the Covid-19 Royal Commission of Inquiry over which he presides.

It has long been clear that Blakely, a respected epidemiologist and professor at the University of Melbourne, has a network of colleagues who were key players in advising the New Zealand Government on its Covid policies and indeed who worked deep within the government response.

But the extent of Blakely’s personal involvement, including his friendships with these players and the advice he gave them, has only now been publicly disclosed. …

It seems pointless to carry on this work – either narrowly focused or otherwise – if there are questions over the impartiality of the inquiry chair.

Van Velden may yet ask Blakely to resign; she told the Herald: “The makeup of the inquiry commissioners, as well as scope of the inquiry are decisions that I am currently considering.”

Tony Blakely is an honourable guy, but is too conflicted to be seen independent enough to be Chair of the Royal Commission. I think he should be retained as a member, but the Minister should appoint a new Chair.

ACT in Free Press said:

Meanwhile, Three Strikes is coming back. Serious sexual and violent offenders automatically get the maximum sentence on their third conviction. 

This is not correct. The proposed law will exempt the majority of recidivist criminals from going a strike because of the new criteria that if a Judge gives them a light sentence, they they don’t get a strike. And the proposed law also gives judges much more discretion to change third strike sentences.

The law ACT is supporting is a Claytons Law – sounds like the old Three Strikes Law, but is a weak copy of it.

City Journal reports:

n continuous publication since 1845, Scientific American is the country’s leading mainstream science magazine. Authors published in its pages have included Albert Einstein, Francis Crick, Jonas Salk, and J. Robert Oppenheimer—some 200 Nobel Prize winners in all. SciAm, as many readers call it, had long encouraged its authors to challenge established viewpoints. In the mid-twentieth century, for example, the magazine published a series of articles building the case for the then-radical concept of plate tectonics. In the twenty-first century, however, American scientific media, including Scientific American, began to slip into lockstep with progressive beliefs. Suddenly, certain orthodoxies—especially concerning race, gender, or climate—couldn’t be questioned.

Once upon a time scientists welcomed debate, but now many scientific institutions seek to suppress it.

The following month, Shermer submitted a column discussing ways that discrimination against racial minorities, gays, and other groups has diminished (while acknowledging the need for continued progress). Here, Shermer ran into the same wall that Better Angels of Our Nature author Steven Pinker and other scientific optimists have faced. For progressives, admitting that any problem—racism, pollution, poverty—has improved means surrendering the rhetorical high ground. “They are committed to the idea that there is no cumulative progress,” Shermer says, and they angrily resist efforts to track the true prevalence, or the “base rate,” of a problem. Saying that “everything is wonderful and everyone should stop whining doesn’t really work,” his editor objected.

Progress can’t be celebrated or even acknowledged!

In 2021, SciAm published an opinion essay, “Why the Term ‘JEDI’ Is Problematic for Describing Programs That Promote Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion.” The article’s five authors took issue with the effort by some social-justice advocates to create a cute new label while expanding the DEI acronym to include “Justice.” The Jedi knights of the Star Wars movies are “inappropriate mascots for social justice,” the authors argued, because they are “prone to (white) saviorism and toxically masculine approaches to conflict resolution (violent duels with phallic light sabers, gaslighting by means of ‘Jedi mind tricks,’ etc.).” What all this had to do with science was anyone’s guess.

Vomitous nonsense.

Shermer believes that the new style of science journalism “is being defined by this postmodern worldview, the idea that all facts are relative or culturally determined.” Of course, if scientific facts are just products of a particular cultural milieu, he says, “then everything is a narrative that has to reflect some political side.” Without an agreed-upon framework to separate valid from invalid claims—without science, in other words—people fall back on their hunches and in-group biases, the “my-side bias.”

Traditionally, science reporting was mostly descriptive—writers strove to explain new discoveries in a particular field. The new style of science journalism takes the form of advocacy—writers seek to nudge readers toward a politically approved opinion.

Sadly this is correct.

Recommended viewing for those why deny the rapes and sexual assaults of women by Hamas terrorists on 7 October, you may (optimistically) change your mind after viewing this film, Screams before Silence.

It features many interviews with survivors by Sheryl Sandberg.

Eric Crampton writes about an appeal against a solar farm:

It isn’t crazy to object to a land use change that would have substantial adverse flow-on effect on your land use. 

It’s nuts that the system entertains objections like this one where there is zero reported real effect – only what amounts to a view that the outfit putting in the solar farm might lose money as compared to keeping it as a dairy farm. 

It’s nuts that Todd felt they had to commission an economic analysis to prove net benefits.

The objector was objecting on any impact on him. He was objecting that the owner wasn’t making the best economic use of his land, and the owner had to defend this in court over many years – just to use his own land.

Chris Bishop had a great time in the general debate with Carmel Sepuloni doing Celebrity Treasure Island. Some extracts:

Now, I’ve also discovered that in this most recent season of Treasure Island, they did a special thing, the first time in the game’s history. This is real. They introduced a thing on this this year’s season called “The Captain’s Coup”, in which the day’s winning team gets to pick a member from the losing team to go up against their captain. Now, I can see why Carmel jumped at the chance. What better form of professional development could there be for a senior Labour Party MP than spending weeks deserted on an island while everyone around you is trying to bring you down and participate in a captain’s coup.

Kieran McAnulty’s been there biding his time slowly and quietly, which is why he’s asked only two oral questions in the last six months. Now, Michael Wood would have been there, ready and waiting, but the captain, the current captain, Chris Hipkins, got there first, eliminating him from the island. What a savvy thing to do, because we shouldn’t rule out a come-back for Mr Michael Wood. He’s been elected to the illustrious body of the Labour Party policy council. Chris Hipkins, the policy council has spoken. Extinguish your torch and leave the island.

Hilarious – Carmel takes part in a show which has a coup as part of it.

And then we’ve got the “Hapless Hipkins” faction. That’s sort of the other people left right out, who are backing the current leader of the Labour Party. And then, of course, we’ve got the people who are considering walking the plank. They’re just considering leaving. They’re considering abandoning ship. Megan Woods, off to be the next Mayor of Christchurch, I’m told. Adrian Rurawhe, he’s considering it. Greg O’Connor and Jenny Salesa—people who are considering abandoning the good ship Labour.

Of course, there’s one thing we can all agree on and that all of the Labour Party agrees: when the tribal council meets, also known as the caucus meeting, there’s one person who’s never invited, and that’s Ginny Andersen.

Ouch. Harsh but true.

Radio NZ report:

Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins said the Electoral Commission should make sure the system ran smoothly and “taking away the right of thousands of people to vote” was not the answer.

“Thousands of people enroled and voted on the day. If they’re saying they’ll stop that happening they’re basically saying that thousands of people won’t have their vote counted.

This is a nonsensical argument. Saying that not allowing someone to vote because they didn’t;t enrol in time is depriving someone of their vote is like arguing that now allowing someone who turns up at 7.10 pm to vote, is depriving them of the right to vote.

Allowing people to enrol on election day causes massive logistical problems, and it is not unreasonable to expect people to enrol before election day – especially as doing so is mandatory.

In Germany you must register 21 days before the election. In Australia it is 26 to 51 days before an election. In the UK it is 16 days. In Sweden it is 30 days. Ireland is 18 days. France 37 days.

For NZ the sensible thing to do would be to set a deadline of the day before advance voting starts. Then during the voting period, the sole focus can be on voting not registering.

Simeon Brown announced:

I wish to make a ministerial statement relating to low gas production. This morning, Minister for Resources Hon Shane Jones released a public statement following the release of updated projections from industry coregulator, the Gas Industry Company. The assessment from the Gas Industry Company is dire. Insufficient gas is available to meet all contracted demand. …

It is important for the House to understand the magnitude of these updated projections. Natural gas production has decreased following the previous Government’s decision in 2018 to ban gas exploration beyond Taranaki. Since 2018, New Zealand has imported record levels of coal from Indonesia. Gas production has fallen by 51 petajoules between the years 2018 and 2023, investment in gas exploration, including to maintain production from existing wells, has collapsed, and existing fields are now in decline. The speed of reductions in production has also exceeded expectations.

So we no longer have enough gas to even meet current contracted demand.

The lights must stay on. Less natural gas will mean more coal being used to firm our electricity grid, as Genesis confirmed this morning. If it is not gas that keeps the lights on, then it must be coal. That is the reality of this situation the country finds itself in, and it is why this coalition Government has made urgent decisions on coordinating gas supplies and will lift the 2018 ban.

Another Labour legacy.

Chris Bishop announced:

“I have agreed with the Council’s alternative recommendations in nine instances, relating to development around Adelaide Road, the walkable catchment around the City Centre Zone (including Hay St), character precincts, building heights and controls on the interface of the City Centre Zone and Moir and Hania Street, setbacks for 1-3 residential units, the Johnsonville train line and its walkable catchments, the Kapiti train line walkable catchments, and hydraulic neutrality as it applies to the City Centre Zone.

“The reasons for accepting these recommendations vary depending on the precise issue, but in general, the Council’s recommendations give better effect to the National Policy Statement on Urban Development in that they provide additional capacity for housing and business land, will better achieve a well-functioning urban environment, will better provide for a competitive development market and provide for a more efficient use of land.

“The Council asked me to not upzone the Kilbirnie centre, as was recommended by the Hearings Panel, to allow them to undertake a plan change within one year. I have not accepted this recommendation and have instead accepted the Hearings Panel recommendation. This will apply a 10-minute walkable catchment around the Kilbirnie centre and consequently mean a High Density Residential Zone will apply.

This is great. There were 10 areas where the Council and the Hearings Panel disagreed. In all 10 cases Bish has gone with the option which will be best for allowing more housing.

“The Council also asked me to remove ten buildings from the schedule of heritage buildings in the District Plan. However, the question of whether a building should be on the heritage schedule is an evidential one. In the original District Plan that was notified for public consultation, the Council’s position was that the ten buildings in question should be on the heritage schedule. The Council’s own heritage expert and planning officer supported this and provided evidence to this effect to the Hearings Panel. The Hearings Panel therefore recommended the ten buildings be listed or retained on the heritage schedule.

“The Council has not pointed to any evidence to support its reasons for rejecting the Hearing Panel’s recommendations. No expert heritage evidence was lodged by buildings owners.

“Given the evidence before me, and without the ability to seek further evidence, I have therefore agreed with the recommendations of the Hearings Panel in relation to the ten heritage buildings.

“That said, I understand the Council’s position regarding the ten buildings and I have received separate correspondence from the Mayor around making it easier to delist heritage buildings. I have already asked for advice on this matter and I look forward to conversations with her and other councils regarding the issue of heritage and how it impedes development.”

Basically the Council made the right decisions on removing the heritage provisions, but did so without an evidential basis so Bishop can’t legally go along with their decision. Instead a law change is likely allowing Councils to remove buildings from heritage listings more easily.

So all in all a great outcome for more affordable housing in Wellington.

Gullible media have reported that Hamas has accepted a ceasefire deal. They have not. They rejected the proposed ceasefire deal and proposed their own one. And what are some key aspects of it:

Hamas shall release three Israeli detainees on the third day of the agreement, after which Hamas shall release three other detainees every seven days, starting with women as much as possible (civilians and female soldiers).

If there are fewer than 33 living Israeli detainees to be released, a number of bodies from the same categories shall be released to complete this stage.

So Hamas has only agreed to release three hostages a week, and they don’t even have to be alive!

Time magazine did a detailed interview with Donald Trump. Here’s some of what Trump said he would or might do if re-elected, as is likely:

• Build migrant detention camps
• Deploy the U.S. military, both at the border and inland
• Let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans.
• Withhold funds appropriated by Congress
• Fire U.S. Attorney who doesn’t carry out his order to prosecute someone
• Pardons for every one of his supporters accused of attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, more than 800 of whom have pleaded guilty or been convicted by a jury.
• Deploy the National Guard to American cities as he sees fit
• A tariff of more than 10% on all imports

Going to be an interesting four years!

The Auditor-General’s report into the incorrect vote count for the general election is polite but damning. They found:

• There were 25 incorrect vote totals at polling places
• One ballot box went missing and wasn’t counted
• Some electorate managers didn’t check the data from their electorate
• National Office also failed to check data submitted
• There is no verification of data against source material
• There was no system for documenting and verifying that data entry checks or reasonableness checks had been carried out. 
• The Electoral Commission had not fully documented the quality assurance data checks that National Office staff were expected to perform
• Some electorate managers told us that they signed off final result certificates for their electorates, indicating that reasonableness checks had been completed, without doing the checks or verifying that they had been done. 
• Not all dual votes were removed from the count

These are not minor issues. This is a systematic fail. It is luck, not good management, that the errors didn’t cumulatively impact the allocation of seats.

I’d say we need some new appointments to the Electoral Commission Board – at least one should be an audit or process expert.

Stuff reports:

MPs from both major parties are calling for political debate to cool, after a Te Pāti Māori MP said the Government’s changes to Oranga Tamariki showed a “mission to exterminate Māori”.

The MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Mairiameno Kapa-Kingi, made the comments during Wednesday’s general debate. Speaking about the removal of Treaty principles from the Oranga Tamariki Act, she said this showed the Government wanted to remove Māori children from their whānau, iwi and hapū.

“This Government will not waver in its mission to exterminate Māori,” she said. …

Radio NZ also reported:

Kapa-Kingi repeated her comments about extermination on Morning Report and said that previous words she used like colonisation, seemed to fall on deaf ears.

“If [extermination is] the word that has people sit up and take notice of what it feels like for our mokopuna and our whānau, what it sounds like, the tone of the discussion on a daily basis in the house.

So this MP thinks colonisation and extermination are interchangeable terms.

While it is good the media are finally covering what she said, she is still getting little pushback.

There are some people who push a theory called the Great Replacement Theory which is that white people in Europe and the US are being replaced by non-white immigrants as a deliberate policy to eliminate the white race.

Anyone who says such a thing is labelled a far right conspiracy theorist, and generally will be shunned by all media outlets.

What Kapa-Kingi said is the equivalent on the left of the Great Replacement Theory. Yet all she gets is a story mildly saying some have criticised her language.

Kapa-Kingi seems to be implying she just uses the term extermination as hyperbole. Apart from the insult that does to people who have faced actual extermination via government policy, consider what the likely impact is on some people who hear her rhetoric.

If you genuinely believe the Government is set on exterminating your race, then violent resistance would be morally justified. So her words are effectively an incitement to violence. You can’t say that the Government wants to exterminate 600,000 New Zealanders, and expect that the only response is for people to sign a petition.

Simeon Brown and Wayne Brown announced:

The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining local control of water assets.

If the Council which ranges greatly in opinions supports this unanimously, it must be a pretty good plan. And keeping local control and reducing projected increases sound good to most.

“The previous government wasted $1.2 billion over several years to deliver a water reform plan that was wasteful, took away local control, and was divisive. It was resoundingly rejected by voters.

$1.2 billion flushed away on an ideological experiment.

The new model means Watercare will be able to borrow more money for long-term investment in water infrastructure and spread the borrowing over a longer period rather than front-loading the cost on to current ratepayers.

The common way to do infrastructure.

The Taxpayers Union points out:

The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on the Government to end the rort that sees millions of dollars funnelled away from motorists into the inefficient and expensive Te Huia Train Service.

A recent review of the train service between Auckland and Hamilton reveals that it has budgeted a $5.45 million contribution from the NZTA for the current financial year. Roughly 90% of NZTA’s Land Transport Fund comes from fuel, registration and road-user charges.

The Minister of Transport recently said that subsides equate to approximately $90 per passenger for each leg of the journey, or $180 per return trip.

The fares from passengers only cover 3% of the operating expenditure, so it is 97% subsidised.

The number of daily passengers is around 250, so around 1% of those who travel on the expressway.

There are nine daily bus services between Hamilton and Auckland.

Radio NZ reports:

A council proposal to build a $55 million four-star hotel and carpark is dividing opinion in Whanganui.

The project is included in the city’s draft long-term plan alongside proposals to cut services and sell $16 million worth of assets.

Mayor Andrew Tripe says current tough times should not preclude council from having bold aspirations, but not everyone is so sure.

The draft long term includes average rates increases of 10.6 percent – which are picked to go even higher – but that hasn’t stopped the Whanganui District Council floating the idea that it get into the hotel business.

This is just nuts. Ratepayers should not be funding hotels.

Tripe said the time was right.

“There’s no doubt that a four-star hotel is needed. We had a market demand study done completed by Horwath HTL hotel consultants who suggested that a 60 plus room four-star would be strongly desired for Whanganui.”

Of course the hotel consultants concluded a hotel is needed.

If there really is demand for a four star hotel in Whanganui, then one of the dozens of hotel chains will build one. That is how they make money. As they are risking their own money, they will weigh up the actual likely return vs cost.

Tripe said a new hotel would also allow Whanganui to bid for more conference business which it was currently missing out on.

That, plus a monorail!

Rates would need increase $30 a year per property though until 2039 to pay for it.

Only then was it envisaged the hotel would begin to make a return of $4 million annually.

LOL a business plan that it will take 15 years to make a profit is just nonsense. So much can happen in 15 years.