The Dotcom Mana alliance

Jonathan Milne writes in the HoS:

Internet mogul Kim Dotcom claims he has signed up one sitting MP to join his new party before the election and is talking to three more – a poaching raid unprecedented in New Zealand politics.

He refuses to disclose the identity of the MP, saying it will be revealed once the Internet Party is registered and has chosen all its candidates, probably in June.

His revelation came in an exclusive interview with the Herald on Sunday yesterday.

Dotcom said he was also in talks with Mana Party leader Hone Harawira to unite their two parties under one umbrella, enabling the Internet Party to ride into Parliament on the coat-tails of the Te Tai Tokerau electorate MP.

The two leaders and their party bosses, Vikram Kumar and Gerard Hehir, met on February 28 at a house on Auckland’s North Shore.

The Mana Party executive will this week consider a merger proposal. Mana would bring one or two electorates, the Internet Party would bring a more broadly-based party vote and $1 million-plus in campaign funding.

This is almost hilarious. Dotcom is a multi-millionaire who used to donate to John Banks, who allegedly pays his staff below the minimum wage, and has refused to pay dozens of struggling small businesses the money owed to them for work on his mansion. He would normally be the antithesis of everything the Mana Party claims to stand for. But then he effectively offers them a million dollars and rather than picket him for being an abusive employer (look at how many staff have quit under bad circumstances), they’re going to merge with him!!!

The lure of a million dollars campaign fund is too much to say no to, and all they have to do in return is to make sure that a future Government rules out extraditing Dotcom if a NZ court finds he should be extradited.

Milford Track Day 3

 

 

Day 3 was a much earlier start. The generator came on at 6.15 am and one had to be on the track by 7.30 am. So a quick shower, pack, making of  lunch and breakfast. I must again mention how great it is able to shower on a tramp – for the benefits of others, even if not  yourself 🙂

Today was only 15 kms from Pompolona Lodge to Quintin Lodge, but it is over Mackinnon Pass which is a 700 metre climb with 17 zigzags,

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The day started overcast but fine.

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However it soon turned to rain. The good part was we got many more waterfalls. The downside is almost no view from the top.  Even this photo was only possible for a couple of minutes as it cleared.

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The memorial to Quintin Mackinnon near the top. You get some idea of what the weather was like. It wasn’t just wet, but also damn cold when exposed on the ridge.

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One of the lakes at the top.

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Then on the way down a few crossings.

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Some keas who colonised this rock for themselves.

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There’s a series of waterfalls you trek down beside which are quite beautiful.

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It started to rain more heavily in the afternoon. I managed the main trek in five and a half hours and got to Pompolona Lodge at 1.30 pm. The side trek to Sutherland Falls was meant to be at 4.00 pm but I knew there was no way I’d go back outside again if I dried off. So I dumped my pack and headed straight up to Sutherland Falls. It’s the tallest waterfall in New Zealand at 580 metres.  I think also fifth longest in the world.

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I was thinking of going under the falls for a back massage but the rain had made the falls rather powerful so I astutely decided not to go in!

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Then it was bar and relax time back at Pompolona Lodge. It was also St Patrick’s Day so Adie (one  of the guides) dressed up.

Adie is also a rather good skier. Look out for her at the next Olympics in 2018!

Guest Post: Bryant on Morgan and cats

A guest post by Nick Bryant:

Container loads of parachuting cats – Gareth Morgan’s worst nightmare

The other day in a TV3 news story about Gareth Morgan offering beer to students who front up with the carcasses of dead rats, Mr Morgan said “there’s no evidence whatsoever” for claims that a successful campaign to rid the nation of cats might lead to a plague of rats.  He went on to say that “at most 20 per cent of rats end up as a victim of cats.”

I don’t know if that final point is true or not – though my guess is it’s light.  But he’s quite wrong that there’s no evidence that wiping out cats doesn’t result in a plague of rats.  He probably reckoned he was on safe ground making the claim, given his hoped for decimation of domestic and wild cats could seldom have occurred.  After all, how would you wipe them all out?

Well, it has occurred, in the Bario Highlands in Sarawak, Borneo, and sure enough, the result was a plague of rats – and other nasty creepy crawlies.

I’d read about this in the biography of Tom Harrison, an early anthropologist and the founding father of Mass Observation.  Quite the fearless pioneer, Mr Harrisson did ground-breaking anthropological research amongst cannibal tribes in the South Pacific, and parachuted into wartime Borneo to lead headhunting guerrilla fighters against the Japanese.

David Attenborough describes him as “arrogant, choleric, swashbuckling, often drunk and nearly always deliberately outrageous.  In spite of these contradictions, he became a key figure in every enterprise he undertook.”

The title of his biography is The Most Offending Soul Alive.  I suspect Mr Morgan would have liked him.

What follows is a remarkable account of what happens when you disrupt the ecological balance as Mr Morgan has campaigned to do.  What’s clear is that if Mr Morgan gets backing to kill the nation’s cats, we’re going to have to deal with the rats at exactly the same time.  And even then, what impact that will have on the population of other animals, good or bad from a human perspective, is quite another matter.

 From pages 328 and 329, Tom Harrisson and his Remarkable Life – The Most Offending Soul Alive, 1997 Aurum Press …

 Thanks to an antimalaria program by the World Health Organization, there were no almost no mosquitoes or cockroaches.  But, as Tom discovered, there were no also no cats; they had been poisoned by eating the spray-killed cockroaches.  With the cats gone, there was an explosion in the number of rats.  Without cockroaches, bed bugs, which had never been a serious problem before, proliferated.  One conclusion Tom drew was that although “the benefits of malarial spraying so far are tremendous … there are anxious nights ahead” from the possible danger of typhus, cholera, and plague from the rats, bed bugs and other parasites.  Tom’s moral was “All who wish the ulu well should daily repeat this motto: Do good carefully.”

Meanwhile, he came up with his own method for righting the ecological imbalance.  In a wireless message of November 23, 1959, to Borneo Airways, Tom asked the pilot to “bring some hungry cats to tackle the plague of rats.  I guarantee immediate payment [for] all.”  The plea went out to all Kuching.  Ong Kee Hui and many other old friends contributed kittens for Bario.  Barbara had the thankless job of caring for them until a plane could fly to Bario and deliver the cats and, she hoped, collect Tom.  According to an account that Tom published later, “in all the coast towns … the WHO opened special centres” for donations of “surplus cats.”

The project hit a snag when no plane could be made available that could land on Bario’s short strip, but, as Tom wrote, with the help of the RAF from Singapore “special containers were devised” in which to pack the cats.  One clear day, an RAF aircraft from Singapore collected the cats in Kuching and flew inland.  Then, “into the interior uplands suddenly cascaded parachute-borne containers bulging with cats of every degree of age and race.”  This may have solved the problem of the rats, if not the bed bugs.

I love it – parachuting cats in to kill the rats!

Rutherford on Key in China

Hamish Rutherford writes:

Seconds after John Key stepped off the plane from Shanghai to Hong Kong, the third and final stop of his Chinese visit, officials began rolling the red carpet away.

The move was no doubt to minimise the disruption to other passengers rather than a slight on the rest of the delegation, but was symbolic of the presidential nature of the trip.

How much of it has been down to  Key, and how much to Kiwi officials based in Wellington and Beijing, cannot be calculated. But in diplomatic terms the trip appears to be flawless, even as storms surround two of Key’s colleagues at home.

New Zealand achieved a trifecta – with a deal to directly trade currency, lofty new trade targets set and Key hosted at a private dinner with President Xi Jinping.

Only a week ago it appeared as though this visit was to deliver a humiliating defence of New Zealand’s food safety standards following last year’s botulism scare, to a country where even many locals refuse to drink the tap water due to contamination fears.

While there was no public acknowledgement that the botulism incident was a false alarm from Key’s host, the Chinese government could hardly have given stronger signals to its businesses of the high regard New Zealand is held. The frequent access to top Chinese leadership and growing rapport between Key and Xi was evidence New Zealand is given disproportionate importance by Beijing relative to our global status.

I’ll blog more on this during the week, but Key is incredibly good at developing not just professional relationships with other leaders, but a strong personal rapport also.

He’s not just done that with countries we share a common heritage with (Anglosphere of Australia, Canada, UK, US) but also President Xi of China, President Santos of Colombia, President Nieto of Mexico, former President Medvedev of Russia, President Sein of Burma etc.

And relationships do matter. They can be more important than almost anything else when it comes to politics (and business).

The secret Rudd donation

The Australian reports:

KEVIN Rudd’s growing fears of losing his seat at last year’s federal election led to a fundraising drive among his supporters to pay for targeted polling and a secret $200,000 overseas donation that the party believes may have breached state electoral laws.

Labor’s pollster, UMR Research Australia, yesterday confirmed it had conducted a $200,000 “program of research” in Mr Rudd’s Brisbane electorate of Griffith ahead of the election on September 7.

The donation was received and UMR commissioned to do the research — understood to have included focus groups and “robo” call messages to voters — just days before the election without the knowledge of the national secretariat and state Labor officials.

UMR is now refusing to refund the money to the Queensland ALP, which sent a letter of demand for the $200,000 after a meeting of its administrative committee on Wednesday.

I have to say I’m with UMR on this one. They were commissioned in good faith by the party leader to do research, and they did the research. The fact the party now has to refund the donation that paid for it is the ALP’s problem. Unless there is more to this than meets the eye, I think it is outrageous they are asking their supplier to give them money back. It’s almost akin to the allegations against Countdown.

While Mr Rudd denies any wrongdoing, the committee was given legal advice alleging the donation from the former prime minister’s long-time friend Kung Chin Yuan, a Taiwanese-born businessman, may have breached Queensland electoral rules, as well as internal Labor rules on the limits for branches handling finances. Under Queensland laws, any donation of $100,000 or more has to be disclosed to the Electoral Commission of Queensland within weeks of its receipt. Mr Rudd says all disclosures were the responsibility of the party.

ALP state secretary Anthony Chisholm told the committee that until this month, he was unaware of the donation until it was discovered in an audit of the Griffith branch. The audit found the donation was paid directly by Mr Kung into the Griffith branch bank account from his bank account in Taiwan and withdrawn hours later to cover the UMR bill.

The Queensland ALP is demanding UMR pay back the $200,000 so it can return the donation to Mr Kung, a Labor donor since 1998.

It’s no surprise that Labor broke electoral laws. But the refund is their problem, not UMR’s.

Another National candidate who has achieved stuff in the private sector

National announced:

The National Party has announced Lewis Holden will be its candidate for the Rimutaka electorate at the 2014 general election. 

“We’re extremely fortunate to have a candidate of Lewis’s calibre standing for the Rimutaka seat”, says Lower North Island Regional Chair Malcolm Plimmer. 

“Lewis has proven himself a strong advocate with exceptional promise, and I look forward to working with him to run a strong campaign for Rimutaka

I know Lewis very well, and he’ll be a great candidate and hopefully MP.

Lewis is only 29, but he’s already spent eight years working in the private sector for a variety of technology companies. He’s been an account executive for IBM, Spectrum Consulting, Ingram Micro and currently Oracle. He’s also run his own web development company for four years.

Still a lot of selections to go. Labour still has 32 selections to complete and National has 28 to go.

8/10 in 46 seconds

Desperate lies

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This is the latest advertisement from Labour. Its desperate stuff which I doubt would survive a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority.

Note no mention of the fact that the PGF lost a contestable contract to the Salvation Army, who also spoke out against the deal. So the entire premise is a lie.

Also the decision was not made by Ministers. To quote Peter Dunne:

The process to retender the contracts for these services was an open contestable tender.   The evaluation panel deciding on the tender comprised six members: three internal Ministry staff and three external evaluators from the Department of Internal Affairs, the Health Promotion Agency and a Pacific health consultant.  

“The Ministry of Health has been particularly mindful to keep the process clearly separate from any perception of political interference. This extended to commissioning an independent review by Pricewaterhouse on its proposed decisions.

Also I understand the total amount being spent by the Ministry of Health on problem gambling is increasing by $750,000 over last year. So its a decision to increase funding and to go with a provider that will actually assist more people more effectively.

Labour seem to be upset because the PGF was a great source of taxpayer funding for their activists and candidates. Likewise the Greens haven’t mentioned that the former CEO is an active member of the Green Party and partner of a Green MP.

D is for debt

This week’s letter from the NZ Initiative:

In Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Polonius’s sage advice to his son about friendship was:

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be
For loan oft loses both itself and friend.

In contrast, borrowing and lending between complete strangers makes the world a better place. 

People can deposit savings with institutions that on-lend the funds to people who need to borrow to buy a house or expand their business. Globally, banks and other such intermediaries shift savings from countries that have a surplus of savings over investment opportunities, such as China in recent decades, to deficit countries. 

People with surpluses are better off than if their opportunities to invest were narrower and people with deficits are better off than if their opportunities to borrow were fewer.

These transfers of savings may take the form of debt or equity. This article is about debt. 

Unlike equity, debt involves no ownership control of the borrower’s enterprise. Instead the borrower typically agrees to pay the lender interest and principal according to a pre-determined schedule, as for term deposits or payments on government bonds.

The lender is risking that the borrower will default, and needs to take care as a result. Higher interest rates can compensate for greater risk, but not if the borrower defaults.

Conversely, borrowers who borrow too much can inflict severe future distress on themselves and their associates.

Borrowers have less incentive to be prudent when they are merely the agent of the person who is really liable. For example, when large companies or governments are borrowing, they are putting their shareholders and taxpayers at risk respectively, rather than the managers, politicians or officials who are signing the borrowing contracts.

Unless such agents are well-controlled, they may borrow imprudently.

Similarly, lenders have less incentive to be prudent when they are merely someone’s agent, or when they can assume that someone else, such as the government, is assuming the risk. Government-backed lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were major underwriters of the last US housing bubble.

Misplaced confidence in financial soundness is a dangerous thing, particularly for taxpayers. Unsurprisingly, research has found evidence that government guarantees for bank deposits increase the risk of bank failure.

Peace-time debt crises of national significance commonly reflect government mismanagement of fiscal, exchange rate, monetary, industry and/or prudential policies. But they can also have climatic and international causes. The costs in unemployment and lost output can be very serious.

Not sure what next week’s E is!

Milford Track Day 2

 

 

 

Day Two is a 16 km hike from Glade House to Pompolona Lodge. Mainly flat, except for the last couple of kms, and pretty good track to walk on.

The generator came on at 6.45 am and departure was 8.30 am as Day 2 isn’t as long a day as the next two.

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You leave Glade House by crossing over the Clinton River. There’s something like 280 water crossings in total on the track!

 

 

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A view from the bridge back to Glade House.

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A small detour gets you to the tree with a hole in it!

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Another five minute side track takes you to the Wetlands.

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At the end of the Wetland board walk.

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Then back into the beech forest.

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The track is really well maintained at this stage. Later days, the surface was much tougher.

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A nice reflection at Prairie Lake.

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A trout.

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The track then breaks into the open near the end.

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And just before Pompolona Lodge you have to climb across two massive rockfalls.

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The view from my room at Pompolona Lodge. Very civilised.

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The common area where you relax, nice and warm and dry. Bar opens at 5 pm, so prior to that just quiet reading and relaxation time.

Record migration from Australia

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Stats NZ released the monthly migration stats today. For the first time ever the annual number of people moving to New Zealand from Australia exceeded 20,000 for the first two months of this year.

The net migration to Australia is now only 15,000. 18 months ago it was around 40,000. A remarkable turnaround. Imagine what it might be in another year if we stay on course.

Behind the headline

The headline:

A global survey has found that one in every six Kiwis ran out of money for food in 2011-12 – more than in all except eight other developed nations.

Sounds shocking.

The shock finding contrasts with other data in an annual survey by the Paris-based OECD that put New Zealand near the top of the 34 developed countries on social indicators such as people’s perceived health status and employment rates, and above average on relative poverty.

So on most indicators doing well, so let’s do a shock headline on the one indicator that isn’t, which is based on three year old data.

The NZ figure matches Statistics NZ’s annual household economic survey which asks people if they have not enough, just enough, enough or more than enough money to meet “everyday needs for such things as accommodation, food, clothing and other necessities”. Those who said “not enough” rose from 16.2 per cent in 2007 to 18.5 per cent in 2010, but fell to 17.6 per cent in 2011, 16.6 per cent in 2012 and 14 per cent last year.

So the real headline should be fewer families unable to make ends meet than in 2007!

Here’s some other stats from OECD survey:

  • NZ 2nd highest in OECD for percentage of welfare going to low income families
  • Between 2007 and 2010 NZ richest 10% of households had higher drop in disposable income than the poorest 10%
  • NZ has 8th highest employment rate
  • Gini coefficient which measures income inequality declines from 2007 to 2010
  • NZ relative poverty rate declines from 2007 to 2010
  • NZ 2nd highest for adults in good health and highest in world for adults with low income
  • NZ 11th highest for overall life satisfaction
  • NZ 5th highest for confidence in government

This is not to say that things are not tough for some families. But if you read the overall OECD report, NZ is better than most other developed countries. And fewer people in 2013 than in 2007 are unable to make ends meet.

Cry baby

The ODT reports:

Police have decided not to pursue a complaint against the Otago Daily Times made by Dunedin city councillor Lee Vandervis.

Cr Vandervis complained to police in December about the publication, just before the local body elections, of an article rating councillors’ performance during the last council term.

He believed the article breached the Local Electoral Act by attempting to interfere with or influence voters in the process of voting in the elections.

What an insane complaint. Having a person or publication state what they think of a Councillor’s performance is not interfering with an election.

One of his biggest complaints was over the timing of the article, which was published as voters were receiving their electoral papers.

”If the ODT had decided to do this a month prior to people getting the election papers, not a problem.”

That’s the exact time you do want to hear opinions. This is like saying that there can be no media coverage of local body issues in the final three weeks.

University of Otago public law specialist Prof Andrew Geddis said there was never a chance of the complaint being successful.

”Simply providing information about candidates and your considered opinion as to their behaviour or performance – there is just no way on earth that is going to be considered interference.”

If Cr Vandervis did take a private prosecution it would be thrown out of court at the first hurdle.

Indeed.

PGF loses contract to Salvation Army

The Herald reports:

Government funding for the Problem Gambling Foundation has been scrapped, the organisation confirmed today amid rumours the service would be shut-down because it opposes National’s SkyCity convention centre deal.

The foundation issued a statement saying it had been informed by the Ministry of Health that from June 30 it would no longer be contracted for the bulk of its current services.

“While the ministry describes PGF as a valued provider of quality services it has told PGF it has a superior offer for the clinical and public health services PGF provides,” the foundation said.

The announcement came after Labour MP Trevor Mallard said he believed the foundation would be axed due to its stance against the SkyCity convention centre deal.

The PGF had “made themselves particularly unpopular with the Government and with the Ministry of Health”, Mr Mallard said last night.

First of all, the decision was not made by Government Ministers, but by the Ministry of Health. They are not reducing the amount they spend on helping problem gamblers – just another organisation or organisations put in a better bid for the funds. If more problem gamblers will be successfully assisted, this is a good thing.

The PGF seems to spend much of its times as a taxpayer funded lobby group, rather than actually helping problem gamblers. It is constitutionally outrageous for groups to be provided with taxpayer dollars so they can then lobby MPs and media on what they think government policy should be.

I’m all for lobby groups advocating for the views of their members. But lobby groups should be funded by their members and supporters, not by the taxpayers.

I support the taxpayer funding public health groups that mainly focus on assistance, not politics. Hence I support taxpayer funding of Quitline, but not of ASH (a lobby group). For gambling I support funding of organisations such as the Salvation Army that provide great assistance to problem gamblers. The Problem Gambling Foundation however spends a great proportion of its time on lobbying and media activity. Their website is all about how to get involved with campaigns to local councils or setting up local action groups. All fine activities, so long as the taxpayer isn’t paying for them – which we have been.

There is a line between groups that do occasional advocacy on issues of importance to them and groups mainly focused on advocacy. Again, the Salvation Army often submit on issues of gambling, alcohol etc. But they don’t make it the major focus of what they do. The Problem Gambling Foundation thought its role was more to lobby for policy it likes, than to provide support services for problem gamblers. Hence it is little surprise that another support group make a stronger case to the Ministry of Health that it would provide better services to problem gamblers than the Problem Gambling Foundation.

UPDATE: The organisation that has won the funding bid is the Salvation Army:

“The Ministry of Health has said it has received a ‘superior contract bid’ but as the foundation is the largest provider of problem gambling services in Australasia, it is hard to imagine a more qualified organisation to do this work.”

However, a spokesman from Associate Health Minister Peter Dunne’s office confirmed today that the other organisation was the Salvation Army.

The spokesman said the Salvation Army bid for the contract was more efficient, and offered more services and value for money.

Now the Salvation Army also opposed the Sky City deal, so suggesting the change in provider is because of the PGF’s opposition is misplaced. Basically they put in a better bid. I’m not surprised it was a better bid, because their primary focus is on helping problem gamblers, not lobbying. I understand the Ministry’s decision that the Salvation Army had the better bid was independently reviewed by PWC.

UPDATE2: Also worth thinking about how the PGF has reacted to the news they lost the tender. They immediately contact Trevor Mallard (no doubt through their public health manager who is a Labour Party candidate) and claim it was due to their opposition to Sky City. There are dozens of organisations out there who lose tenders when better bids are put in. Most don’t go running to Trevor Mallard to try and turn it into a political story. The fact they did so, shows how deeply political they had become.

Dotcom loses at Supreme Court

The Herald reports:

Internet mogul Kim Dotcom has lost a major battle in his extradition case.

A judgment by the Supreme Court at Wellington today dismissed an appeal by Dotcom’s lawyers, arguing for access to all the FBI investigation files before his extradition hearing.

Dotcom, Finn Batato, Mathias Ortmann and Bram van der Kolk are defending charges of mass copyright infringement, online piracy, and money laundering.

Today’s judgment comes after the Court of Appeal reversed a decision by the District Court to allow Dotcom the documents.

The District Court decision had been upheld by the High Court, however Dotcom’s lawyers were granted leave to seek an appeal in the Supreme Court after the Court of Appeal reversed the decision.

“The District Court was wrong to order disclosure of the documents concerned,” Justice John McGrath said today.

“The appeal has been dismissed and costs have been reserved.”

The Supreme Court is the final say on matters of law, and it is worth remembering that this is primarily a legal issue, not a political issue. This should mean the extradition hearing will take place sooner rather than later.

A hateful man

Stuff reports:

The Reverend Fred Phelps Sr., the fiery founder of a small Kansas church who led outrageous and hate-filled protests that blamed almost everything, including the deaths of AIDS victims and US soldiers, on America’s tolerance for gay people, has died. He was 84.

Daughter Margie Phelps said Phelps, whose actions drew international condemnation, died around midnight on Wednesday (local time). She didn’t provide the cause of death or the condition that recently put him in hospice care.

The so called church was basically his extended family. The sad thing is that such a small sad bunch of people could generate international media coverage when they did one of their relentless protests.

Phelps is a disbarred lawyer who physically abused his wife and children, and even got excommunicated from his own church eventually. Scarily in 1992 he got 31% of the vote in Kansas in the Democratic primary for the US Senate!

It will be interesting if his own funeral is picketed by members of his former church.

A nation of intermarriage

Simon Collins writes in NZ Herald:

Two-thirds (66 per cent) of the 17,300 babies born in New Zealand last year with Maori ethnicity were also registered with at least one other ethnicity.

The same applies to 50 per cent of Pacific babies, 31 per cent of Asian babies and 29 per cent of European babies.

Similarly, 69 per cent of people in couples who listed Maori as one of their ethnicities in last year’s Census had partners with no Maori ethnicity, 46 per cent of Pacific people had partners with no Pacific ethnicity, 24 per cent of Asians had partners with no Asian ethnicity, and 12 per cent of Europeans had partners with no European ethnicity.

This is not new. NZ has always had a relatively high inter-marriage rate, which I think is partly why our race relations are so much better (not perfect) than say Australia and the US.

The figures are even more extraordinary for Pacific and Asian people in couples where both partners were born in New Zealand. Fully 78 per cent of such Pacific people, and 82 per cent of Asians, had partners with no Pacific or Asian ethnicity.

So first generation immigrants tend to marry their own race, but second generation generally do not.

How to stop Putin

Fred Kaplan writes at Slate:

And so the main goal of the United States, the EU, and NATO should be to deter and dissuade Putin from moving his troops deeper into Ukraine. There are two ways to do this, seemingly contradictory but actually (if well-managed) complementary. First, ratchet up the penalties. Second, leave room for diplomacy.

Crimea is gone and done, but the key is now to stop Putin there.

The penalties should include—right now—stepping up military deployments to the NATO allies, especially to Poland and the Baltic nations, which were once tied to the Soviet Union. Another: Draw up plans for containing and countering Russian troops in the event of an incursion into Ukraine—not sending U.S. or NATO troops, but shipping arms, maybe some advisers and black-bag Delta forces—and talk about these plans with the allies, and Ukrainian officials, on open phone lines. Putin surely knows the limits of his army. The ground forces in that sector of Russia could invade Ukraine, but they lack the resources and logistical lines to sustain an occupation for very long, especially in the event of even slight resistance. We have to make him realize we know these limitations, too.

Putin has won a tactical victory with the annexation of Crimea, but he has made a strategic blunder as all his neighbours are turning against him, and his dream of a Eurasian Union will die.

Finally, plans should be drawn up to flood Ukraine with Western money. Putin knows that the Warsaw Pact nations that joined the EU are much better off than those that didn’t. Freedman points out that, in 1990, just before the implosion of the Soviet Union, Poland’s GDP amounted to $64.5 billion, while Ukraine’s was a bit better at $90.2 billion. In 2012 Poland’s had skyrocketed to $489.9 billion, while Ukraine’s was much worse at $176.3 billion. Make plans to turn Ukraine into another showcase—another way of demonstrating to Russia’s thinning gang of allies that they’ve chosen the wrong side.

Shows the benefits of capitalism and trade.

Former security staff allege Dotcom paid them less than minimum wage

Whale Oil blogs:

This is a story of slave wages, bullying, intimidation and the sheer effrontery of a man spending literally millions on himself but short-changing his most loyal staff.

Before the raid on the Dotcom mansion there was a staff of approximately 8 security guards working 40 hour weeks in shifts. These guards were in addition to the personal protection staff that included Wayne Tempero and Regan Stewart.

They were on the normal pay rates for static security guards, just a few dollars above the minimum wage but at least with some sort of regularity and job security.

After the raid on the mansion and the subsequent court orders limiting the finances of Dotcom, the security contingent was reduced to just 4 staff. The job still needed to be done and the remaining 4 workers worked in excess of 90 hours per week. But with a catch. Their pay was never increased.

Essentially these important and loyal staff were now working more than twice the hours they worked before but for the same amount that they worked for 40 hours.

They went from just above the minimum wage to well under. Sources have told WOBH that they were effectively working for $8-00 per hour.

Surely not. Surely a man who flys to Huka Lodge to relax, lives in a huge mansion, and has enough spare cash to set up a political party pays his staff above the minimum wage?

Or are they treated the same way as his many small business creditors who are owed money?

The Greens, Labour and Mana all make a lot of fuss about the minimum wage. Russel Norman met him twice seeking his endorsement. Do the Greens membership want the endorsement of someone who allegedly pays below minimum wage? Isn’t it parties of the left that would normally condemn a multi-millionairre who pays his staff below the minimum wage? So do the parties of the left have principles, and will condemn this (if correct), or will they say nothing as they hope for an endorsement or donation?

There was an understanding with these loyal and hard working staff, who had stuck by Kim Dotcom in the aftermath of the raid that the overtime would be treated as back pay and that they would be paid just as soon as money started to flow from Mega.

And the money did start to flow. Kim Dotcom, through his wife, has reportedly pulled in nearly $10 million from share sell downs, and have pretty much spent the lot on frivolities and personal vanity projects like his album, like Rhythm & Vines where he allegedly spent more than $500,000 in order to secure access to the main event and essentially hijack it. On top of that reports suggest that more than $2 million was spent on the album and there are confirmed reports of a not inconsequential amount being spent on another vanity project that is supposedly an “independent” documentary about the fabulous life of Kim Dotcom. In addition sources tell me that more than $1 million a month has been spent on forming the Internet party. These expenses and projects will become the subject of further stories in coming weeks.

Yet no money for creditors!

Finally, earlier this year matters came to a head and when new contracts were offered to the security staff which reflected slightly increased hourly rates but not a mention of unpaid back pay, the staff walked, sick of the lies and the delays.

These 4 staff are each owed over $50,000 in back pay and entitlements. Understandably, after months and months of working on just $8 per hour they sought legal advice but their entreaties to the mansion to honour deals have been met with silence.

Where’s the UNITE union when you need them!

And that is when the threats started to flow. WOBH has exclusively received a recording of one of those calls. A call where Kim Dotcom threatens the underpaid security guard with “the full wrath of [his] legal capabilities” and he promises to “destroy anybody” who challenges him.

You can listen to the audio at Whale’s site.

When WOBH called Tempero to clarify details of these matters he refused to speak citing confidentiality agreements.

Further to that, WOBH was sent a copy of a gagging order (an interim injunction) against Wayne Tempero from the bully boys and girls at Simpson Grierson. This entire article complies fully with the gagging order. Though one would now question just what it is that Kim Dotcom is scared of and what is he trying to hide by applying a gagging order against one particular staff member.

These threats and intimidation of vulnerable workers are unacceptable to the New Zealand public but they show the true nature of Kim Dotcom. A nature the mainstream media have gone out of their way to ignore and to gloss over as they fawned for access.

Is this the sort of behaviour that we as Kiwis expect from would be politicians?

I’m now thinking it would be a great thing if Dotcom does endorse Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana!!

Milford Track Day 1

The bus left Queenstown at 9 am and we had an early lunch in Te Anau, before heading to Te Anau Downs where we have a boat trip for around an hour over Lake Te Anau.

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This is the site that Quintin Mackinnon‘s boat was found in 1892. Mackinnon basically founded the Milford Track, and presumably drowned on the lake. He drowned aged 41.

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Beautiful views on Lake Te Anau.

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One can see the end of the lake ahead. Takes around an hour to get there.

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The start of the track.

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It’s early afternoon by the time you get there, but the first day is just a stroll – 1 km only.

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Then we hit Glade House, which is not just a house, but a series of buildings. They have the main lodge, but separate buildings for each bedroom.  Civilisation – but in the middle of nowhere.

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The Clinton River, which Glade House is next to.

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Late afternoon the guides (Mel, Adie and Kelly) take us for a 90 minute bush walk to view local flora and fauna.

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The birds are very friendly.

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This possum was too curious for his own good!

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A nice view from the top of the bush walk.

 

 

 

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Typical terrain heading back down.

So Day 1 wasn’t really tramping at all. Even the independent trampers only do a couple of hours on the first day, as most of the time is spent getting down into Fiordland. So the real tramp starts on Day 2. Still an incredibly good feeling to be so remote. If you didn’t want to take the boat out, the nearest road would be an eight hour hike over a mountain range.

Good economic growth

Stats NZ reports:

Strong growth in manufacturing saw gross domestic product (GDP) rise 0.9 percent in the December 2013 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today.

Manufacturing activity grew 2.1 percent, driven by increases in food, beverage, and tobacco, and machinery and equipment manufacturing. Manufacturing activity is now at its highest level since March 2006.

And Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana’s manufactured manufacturing crisis receives another death blow.

Dairy farming and dairy product manufacturing both fell this quarter, after strong increases last quarter, when production rebounded from the drought earlier in 2013.

So those who claim the economic growth is all about dairy, are wrong.

Also Labour have been saying forestry is in such dire straits that it needs all sorts of tax breaks and incentives, plus 1,000 long-term unemployed to be working in it (surely a nomination for a Darwin Award for policy, considering the already far too high accident rate). So what has happened to forestry primary product exports in the GDP? They’re at $552 million, up from $495 million a year ago – an 11.5% increase!

Also if you look at the long-term series in constant prices for forestry and logging, the GDP in 1995/96$ was $1.604b for 2013. In 2008 it was $1.199b so that’s 33.8% higher!

Also the MPI series on log exports shows they were only $711 million in 2008 and today are $2.35 billion.

I guess Labour will claim that we should be making more products here, rather than exporting logs, but you know what – you sell to match demand. If the demand is for logs, then you sell logs. If the demand is for wooden tables – you sell wooden tables.

Herald Digipoll on Brown

The Herald reports:

Len Brown will find it tough to be re-elected Mayor of Auckland, according to a newHerald-DigiPoll survey.

Only 22.7 per cent of the people questioned in this month’s poll said they would vote for Mr Brown in the 2016 elections; 57.7 per cent said they would not. The other 20 per cent said they did not know or did not vote in local body elections.

Brown would be an idiot if he stands again. It is very difficult to see how he could be re-elected.

The poll suggests women and the elderly were particularly upset by revelations about his extramarital affair and undeclared hotel stays.

That women probably because of what they saw as a power imbalance, with the mistress being a much younger girl who was a Mayoral appointee.

However, Mr Brown can take some comfort from the survey, which found 51.6 per cent of respondents believed he could still be an effective advocate of Auckland’s interests for the remainder of this three-year term.

When asked if the mayor should have resigned last year after revelations of his misbehaviour, 50.2 per cent said yes and 37.7 per cent said no. A further 12.1 per cent did not know.

This is a reversal of the result of a Herald-DigiPoll survey taken a few days after the affair became public last October.

At the time, 51 per cent of Aucklanders said he should stay and 39.5 per cent said he should resign.

The details in the report about all the hotel stays, is probably why the mood has changed.

Lawyer and feminist commentator Catriona MacLennan said the poll result reflected that women do not believe that Mr Brown’s affair was a private matter and could see he used his powerful position to obtain sex from a young woman.

“Many New Zealand women have encountered this behaviour in their own working lives.

“I and other women wish there was greater condemnation and consequences for such behaviour so that it becomes less prevalent in future,” Ms MacLennan said.

While the affair was consensual, the fact Bevan was a Mayoral appointee and he helped get her a job while trying to start a relationship with her, means it was not a private matter.

The poll of 248 Auckland voters was taken between March 6 and March 16. Of those, only 31.3 per cent voted for Mr Brown last year.

248 is a very small sample size.  That’s a 6.2% margin of error. The breakdowns by gender and age are even bigger. The gender data would have a 8.8% margin of error and the age one could be as high as a 12.4% margin of error. So I wouldn’t put too much faith in them.

Also the fact that only 31% of the sample say they voted for Brown could be significant, as more than that actually did vote for him. However we don’t know if that 31% is of all Aucklanders or of Aucklanders who actually voted. Also asking people who they voted for last time doesn’t always get reliable data as people often claim they didn’t vote for someone who has since disgraced themselves, even if they did.

Parliament Today 20 March 2013

Questions for Oral Answer.

Questions to Ministers. 2.00PM-3.00PM

  1. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by all her statements?
  2. GARETH HUGHES to the Minister of Energy and Resources:Does he see New Zealand’s energy future in oil and gas exploration or renewable energy?
  3. JOHN HAYES to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he received on progress in building a faster-growing economy that supports more jobs and higher incomes for New Zealanders?
  4. Hon NANAIA MAHUTA to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by her statements “I’m satisfied public money was spent in an appropriate way” and “There were no instances of TPO using public money inappropriately”; if so, why has she referred Te Pātaka Ohanga to the Serious Fraud Office?
  5. LOUISE UPSTON to the Minister of Health: What reports has he received about recent progress in the treatment of stroke in New Zealand?
  6. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: Does he stand by all his statements?
  7. MIKE SABIN to the Minister for Courts: What progress can he report on the Government’s efforts to reduce the age of civil court cases?
  8. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Justice: Does she agree with the Prime Minister that she “misled by omission” with respect to her dealings with Oravida Ltd and her ministerial visit to China; if so, in what specific ways did she mislead by omission?
  9. KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister of Energy and Resources: What announcement has he made in relation to smart electricity in New Zealand?
  10. MOJO MATHERS to the Minister of Broadcasting: Does he think that television programmes made with public funds should be screened with captions so that New Zealanders with hearing loss can watch them?
  11. MELISSA LEE to the Minister for Social Development: What recent announcements has she made about ensuring housing assistance goes to those most in need of it?
  12. TRACEY MARTIN to the Minister of Education: Does she stand by her statement in regards to Te Pātaka Ohanga, “there were no instances of TPO using public money inappropriately”?

Today Labour are asking about the Kohanga Reo scandal twice, whether the Minister of Health stands by all his statements, and about the Oravida saga.  The Greens are asking about renewable energy, and public broadcasting.  New Zealand First is asking about the Kohanga Reo scandal.

Patsy question of the day goes to Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi for Question 9: What announcement has he made in relation to smart electricity in New Zealand?

Government Bills 3.00PM-6.00PM.

1. Kaikoura (Te Tai-o-Marokura) Marine Management Bill – First Reading

2.  Border Processing (Trade Single Window and Duties) Bill – Third Reading

The Kaikoura (Te Tai-o-Marokura) Marine Management Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister of Conservation, Nick Smith. The bill seeks to address the current lack of formal protection and recognition of marine species, the submarine canyon, and other natural marine habitats in Te Tai-o-Marokura.

The Border Processing (Trade Single Window and Duties) Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister of Customs, Maurice Williamson. This bill proposes amendments to support the implementation of the Trade Single Window component of the Joint Border Management System.