Guest Post: By-election analysis

A guest post by Kiwi in America on the Christchurch East by-election:

Labour and mainstream media commentators have said that the results in the Christchurch East by-election were bad for National and a negative portent for 2014. This analysis of the Christchurch East by-election compares the voter turnout and individual party’s performance compared to the three most recent general electorate by-elections. By-elections (BE) are unusual for a variety of reasons:

  • There is no party vote, only a candidate vote and so candidate personalities assume far greater significance than in General Election (GE) campaigns because in a GE, only the Party vote matters. A poor candidate fielded in a GE can hide to some extent and ride the party’s national coattails but is more exposed to negative media scrutiny in a BE.
  • Turnout is usually significantly lower in BEs thus changes in support for a particular party or an increase or decrease in turnout achieved by a party against the trend has a disproportionately greater effect
  • Because it is the only election going on, there is an inordinate amount of media focus. Thus particularly unusual local issues that normally might never see the media light of day in a GE assume greater s possibly skewering the result. This was certainly the case with Christchurch East where the issue of the slowness of insurers and the EQC to rebuild damaged homes after the earthquakes is a dominant but very local issue. Christchurch East is ground zero for residential damage in Christchurch having all of the residential red zone in its boundaries.
  • Similarly national issues of political significance can have a bearing on a BE result. A good example of this was National winning the normally reasonably safe Labour seat in the Timaru BE in 1985 because the BE was held right in the middle of the maximum pain inflicted by the implementation of Rogernomics.
  • Interest in BEs from the media, the major parties and thence the voters depend on how safe the seat is and how close the contest is likely to be. Of the 36 BEs since 1960, only one (Wellington Central in 1992) could be considered a marginal seat, the rest occurred in safe or relatively safe Labour or National seats.
  • BE results can be skewered by an emerging third party which lacks the resources to make an impact in a GE but can concentrate their efforts in a BE. There has been a long history of third party upsets (or near upsets) in BEs.
  • Whilst they are often a barometer of support for the government of the day on the day of the BE, they are rarely a bell weather of the fate of the government of the day in the subsequent GE as many bad BE results for incumbent governments are reversed in the next GE.

 Acknowledging these trends and in comparing it with the previous three BEs (all held since National assumed office in 2008), Christchurch East’s result was not exceptional.

Turnout

At 39%, turnout in the Christchurch East BE is at the low end of the scale dropping from 72% in the 2011 GE. However turnout for the Botany BE in 2011 was even lower at 37% (dropping from 72% in the 2008 GE). The Mana BE with a 54% turnout was exceptionally high for a BE. If you measure the total vote in the Christchurch East BE as a percentage of the total vote in the preceding GE, it does represent the worst result (47% versus 49% for Botany, 61% for Mt Albert and 68% for Mana).

Labour’s vote

Labour (and left friendly commentators) have made much of Poto Williams getting 61% of the total vote being a 7% increase from the 54% that Leanne Dalziel got in 2011. However the Christchurch East BE vote for Labour was only 52% of its 2011 GE vote. This was a smaller percentage than the Labour vote achieved in the previous three Bes. In Botany, Labour’s BE vote was a hefty 67% of its 2008 GE vote, in Mana in was 61% of its 2008 GE vote and in Mt Albert it was 65% of its 2008 GE vote.

National’s vote

In the Christchurch East BE National’s share of the vote dropped from 36% to 26% of the vote or 10%. Doocey only managed 34% of the vote that Gilmore got in the 2011 GE. However the Christchurch East result was little different to how National fared in the Mt Albert BE in 2009. This too was a safe Labour seat vacated by a prominent long standing MP. National’s percentage of the vote in the Mt Albert BE dropped to a paltry 17% from its 28% share in the 2008 GE – at 11% a bigger drop than it suffered in Christchurch East. Similarly if you look at the BE vote for National’s Melissa Lee, it was only 36% of the vote compared to what Ravi Musuku achieved against the then sitting Prime Minister Helen Clark in the 2008 GE. Given that Botany was a safe National seat, the comparison with Christchurch East is more difficult to make as the seat profiles are entirely different.

What happened in Mana

Whilst Mana has historically been a safe seat for Labour, Kris Fafoi only managed to eke out a paltry 1,400 vote majority for Labour in the November 2010 BE. Hekia Parata (already a list MP) managed to keep National’s vote at a staggering 80% of its vote in the 2008 GE and increased National’s share of the vote by 6% from 35% to 41% – something quite rare in BE history. Turnout was also very high at 54% of registered voters and 67% of the number who voted in the 2008 GE!

Conclusions

The result in the 2013 Christchurch East BE was very similar to what happened in the 2009 Mt Albert BE. A popular long standing sitting MP vacates a very safe Labour seat. National chose candidates who fought what could only be classified as very average campaigns in each BE. Matthew Doocey is not a rising star in the mould of say Simon Bridges and Melissa Lee, whilst already a List MP, made a number of pratfalls in the Mt Albert campaign. Given the historical trend of the Labour vote in both of these safe Labour seats, National’s head office were not going to devote much in the way of funds or personnel to fighting a hard campaign in seats they were never going to win. Thus the respective GOTV operations of the Doocey and Lee campaigns were largely down to the candidate’s capacity to motivate local National Party members. The importance of the local team the candidate puts together cannot be underestimated. Having fought in a few BEs, the quality and size of the team can make a huge impact on the eventual vote as turnout in BEs is crucial. Hekia Parata’s outstanding result could be put down to her putting together an aggressive and well organized team. Plus, whatever people might think of her skills as Minister of Education, she is a much more formidable campaigner than Doocey or Lee.

On the Labour side, Cunliffe had much to lose if the Christchurch East result was a repeat of the Mana result. Whereas in Mt Albert, Clark’s tenure there attracted some good electorate workers AND the candidate (David Shearer) was a handpicked high riser with an intriguing background with the UN, the Labour team in Mana were poorly organized and it would be fair to say that Winnie Laban had taken the Labour vote for granted in what had been a long standing safe Labour seat. Fafoi thought his media experience and name recognition would be enough but he was an entirely inexperienced candidate so you add a poorly staffed local electorate who had never really had to work hard to elect their MP with a novice campaigner against a crack local team behind an excellent campaigner and you can see how the Mana BE result happened.

Labour’s team needed to lift its game from even the Mt Albert BE because of the need to avoid an embarrassment to its new leader and because National had won the party vote (narrowly) in Christchurch East in 2011. Thus it was that much time and effort was put into Labour’s Christchurch East BE campaign. This began with deliberately siting the 2013 Labour Annual Conference in Christchurch and sending the 500 odd delegates out to canvas for a whole afternoon. As an organizer of canvassing efforts, I know that this would be enough people and time to be able to identify all Labour leaning voters in the electorate (which had 5,000 fewer enrolled voters than in the 2011 GE which in turn was down almost 10,000 enrolled voters on the 2008 GE due to earthquake related out-migration). Enter Jim Anderton, a veteran operative of the left who many may have forgotten was the Labour Party President from 1979 until he took over the Sydenham seat from the retiring and lackluster John Kirk in 1984. Anderton made sure that Labour had an excellent election day GOTV and that was off the back of now accurate canvassing records – something that was difficult to do given the upheaval and movement of people in the electorate since the earthquakes.

In many respects given how much Labour threw at the BE in Christchurch East up against a novice National candidate with zero name recognition in an electorate probably the most hostile to the government than any in the country given the anger and frustration of voters over the insurance related rebuilding delays and infrastructure chaos, this is actually not that bad a result for National. It’s true that Shearer was a ‘sexier’ candidate in Mt Albert than Poto Williams but really in so many ways the Christchurch East BE result was very close to the Mt Albert BE result.  Labour and its cheerleaders have already read too much into the result. National do have cause to be concerned in that its strong party vote showing in Christchurch in 2011 was an integral part of its nationwide winning margin.

In by-elections, getting out your vote is everything. National’s turnout in the 2011 GE was lower than all the polling showed partly because of the teapot tape kerfuffle but also because its soft and low information voters heard the ‘govern alone’ mantra and figured John Key was all good and didn’t need their vote. If National invests in a thorough and extensive nationwide Party vote GOTV effort, they will be able to weather almost any campaign storm that inevitably the left leaning media will throw at them, especially if the economy continues to gather steam and the Christchurch rebuild sees more residential homes targeted.

 Below the break

 be2 be1

 Notes

  1. Only General Electorates were compared so the results of the Maori electorate BEs (Ikaroa Rawhiti on 29 June 2013 and the Te Tau Tokerau on 25 June 2011) were not included in this analysis. The reason is that Maori electorates have a number of features that make them quite different from General Electorates not the least of which is that only Maori can be registered to vote. These differences include vastly larger geographical territories, the existence of parties specifically targeted at Maori that do not run candidates in General Electorates, the lower levels of voter registration and the generally lower levels of voter turnout. These factors combine to make comparison with General Electorates less meaningful.
  2. The comparison is with all General electorate BEs held in the 48th Parliament (2008 to 2011). Given that there were three General Electorate BEs in that period which is an above average number, it enables valid comparisons to be made.
  3. The BE results are only compared with the previous GE especially with respect to the change in the vote for candidates of the respective parties.
  4. Only parties that stood candidates in both the preceding GE, the BE and the subsequent GE (for BEs held in the 48th Parliamentary term) are included in the comparison. The percentage of the vote indicated by each party in each electorate by electorate comparison is of the total electorate votes cast in that particular election. The minor party results are just not analyzed but are part of the total vote.
  5. The comparison is with the ELECTORATE vote in the GE analyzed and not the PARTY vote. The Electoral Commission publishes the total votes for each electorate in GEs in two separate categories (Party then Electorate) whereas in a BE, there is no Party vote to count and so only electorate votes count.
  6. The turnout percentages for GEs are calculated from the total number of Electorate votes cast in the GE (please note that in almost all electorates the total number of Party votes cast can differ from the total number of Electorate votes cast – this is because some voters only exercise one of their entitled votes in the GE). This means that the by-election comparison is an apples to apples comparison. Please also note that for ease of comparison of respective party performance, only the party names are recorded whereas GE Electorate and a BE ballots lists the candidates’ names more prominently than the party affiliation. Likewise the reporting of results at www.elections.govt.nz for the Electorate or BE vote, they also features the candidate names prominently.

In order to accurately determine the voter turnout percentage to be calculated, for all the GE results, the total number of enrolled voters for each electorate came from the Electoral Commission’s published number of enrolled voters eligible to vote in that electorate at that election. For the BEs, the total number of enrolled voters for the BE was taken from media kits released for the specific BE by the Electoral Commission. The exception was the Mt Albert BE where no BE total enrolment figure was released in the media kit. In order to approximate that figure, the increase in enrolled voters in Mt Albert between the 2008 and 2011 GEs was halved and then added to the 2008 enrolment total on the premise that the voting population of the electorate was rising slightly over time and that the size of the roll at the time of the BE was somewhat between the roll of the GEs on either side. Given that the roll increased by only 772 voters, this approximation does not mean the voter turnout percentage for the Mt Albert BE  is very far off being 100% accurate.

Thanks to Kiwi in America for the analysis.

Stats Chat on inequality

Stats Chat does a gentle fisk of the Herald’s article on income inequality. They note:

Firstly, any comparison of money in 2006 to money in 2013 that’s not inflation-adjusted in some way is pretty pointless. The CPI went up 19% over that period.

Secondly, minimum wages are pretty obviously relevant. At the last Census, the minimum wage was $9.50; at this Census it was $13.50, a nominal increase of 42% and a real increase of  19%.

Their summary:

So, inequality in NZ is substantially higher than it used to be, and there are a lot of reasons to think this is bad, but the increase was in the 1980s and 1990s, not since 2006.  And this information is not hard to find.

I believe social mobility is the more important thing to measure than income inequality. Of course a 16 year old school leaver earns a lot less than a 45 year old executive. What is more important is whether those in the lower income deciles stay in them all their lives unable to break out and improve their income, or do you have social mobility.

The data for NZ is that we have a reasonable degree of social mobility, which I blogged on here. 74% of families in the bottom decile were not there seven years later.

“Premium” domain names

Domain Incite reports:

DotKiwi has put NZD 8.5 milion ($7 million) of “premium” domain names on the market in advance of the delegation of .kiwi, which it expects to happen this week.

There are 4,668 names on sale right now, ranging in price from NZD 501.50 ($410) to NZD 124,626.71 ($102,000).

The ten most expensive names are:

hotels.kiwi 124,626.71 NZD
cruises.kiwi 83,193.27 NZD
clothes.kiwi 47,248.89 NZD
games.kiwi 46,212.14 NZD
auto.kiwi 41,579.89 NZD
travel.kiwi 39,947.41 NZD
dentist.kiwi 30,000.00 NZD
love.kiwi 28,728.59 NZD
teaching.kiwi 26,933.29 NZD
blackjack.kiwi 26,932.42 NZD

My view is a domain name is of course worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But I do reflect that I doubt anyone in the world tries to buy books by going to books.com or books.co.nz.  In fact who knows what those sites even are (turns out the former redirects to Barnes & Noble and the latter doesn’t exist). One can turn an obscure name like Amazon or Fishpond into a well known brand.

ICANN is doing the final approvals for new gTLDs at about the rate of ten a week since the first batch on 23 October.  some of the new gTLDs that are operative are:

  • .today
  • .plumbing
  • .sexy
  • .tattoo
  • .land
  • .bike
  • .singles
  • .guru

It will be interesting to see which ones do well, and which ones stagnate or even fail.

 

Labour still wants to merge SFO with OFCANZ

Stuff reports:

On election in 2008, the National Government scrapped Labour’s plans to merge the SFO into the Organised Financial Crime Agency (OFCANZ) and boosted funding to deal with cases stemming from the GFC. Labour MP Jacinda Ardern says the Government has now ”cut that back”.

Presumably as the GFC is over.

Ardern said Labour still believes that bringing the SFO into an organised crime agency is the right approach.

I’m surprised Labour is still pushing their 2008 policy. OFCANZ are the wallies that botched the raid on Kim Dotcom, and have made other major mistakes in recent years. The SFO is not perfect but advocating they merge with OFCANZ is the worst thing you could do for helping detect serious fraud and ensure a conviction.

Monday Motivator – Reflected Glory

Monday Motivator 6

Ahipara – Southern End of Ninety Mile Beach

Often when you step out onto a beach or stretch of coastline in the early hours of the pre-dawn you have to make quick decisions about what you might hope to capture in terms of a photograph as you can be steered away in a certain direction which may or may not work at the expense of another opportunity.  The magic light which exists in these moments passes by very quickly.

I will always remember stepping out onto this most southerly end of Ninety Mile Beach and immediately seeing the amazing reflections of the sky and clouds which seemed to stretch on forever up the coastline. I made a quick decesion to focus on these and set about capturing this photograph.

Click on the image for a larger view of this photograph.

Free Wallpaper – Desktop or iPad

I hope you enjoy this photograph – you can download it as a free Desktop Wallpaper HERE and please share with your friends.

Cheers

Richard [richardhume.com]

A Prime Minister’s Christmas Carol

This christmas carol was performed at the Young Nats Christmas Party, and is very funny (if somewhat harsh):

‘Twas the night before Christmas, all through Parliament House
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse
Press releases were sent and all committee papers shifted
In the hope urgency would soon be lifted

National MPs were soldiering on at their workstations
The Labour ones on leave or taking vacations
When down on the Forecourt there arose such a cry
I thought Tana or Richie had just scored a try

I peered out the window and squinted my eye
And caught a glimpse of a huge sleigh flying by
Could that be Winston in the red suit?
He shouldn’t be driving, he’s pissed as a newt!

And as for those reindeer tethered in rows of three?
Not immigrants – of course – but members of the Winston First Party!
Winston slurred “Go, Tracey, Barbara, Andrew, Dennis, go Prosser 
go Asenati – but not you Brendan, you mum-robbing tosser!

Belching smoke, up the steps they hurtled past startled EAs
Drunk Santa, his backbench, all spouting political clichés
The senile old codger was mumbling about immigration
And protectionist trade barriers which would ruin our nation

Winnie’s wine boxes and Asians merge in his conspiracy theory
And like his voters, I find myself growing increasingly weary
But Winston was not to be the night’s only odd apparition
Along came a stranger one, with a far more sinister ambition

I was seeing the ginger-haired ghost of Christmas Past
with a banshee-like Aussie whine, sounding half-arsed
but it was Russell Norman proposing sweeping banking reform
and claiming fracking is making the globe rapidly warm

Joining Russell’s a woman in a $5,000 ensemble
Who despite the flash outfit, still seems a complete womble
It was Metiria Turei banging on about gambling harms
Printing money, marijuana and nationalising all farms

Apart from Metiria, impersonating Winnie Mandela
There was a virtual Commune of Green MPs wallowing in failure
Gareth Hughes as Chief Whip struggles to motivate
While the rest of them – all Vegans – just sit round and flatulate

These green-tinged ghouls want to take us back to 1930
Their policies would see us on horseback, poor, unwashed and dirty
Russell’s fiscally unsound, but still wants the Treasury
Whereas Turei would be happier with something more leisurely

The Greens are not workers, they’re intellectually lazy
And that Catherine Delahunty is just batshit crazy 

And as for Labour, I hear you ask? Is there actually any Opposition?
Well, now you mention it, that is an interesting proposition
They seem to be demoralised, missing, all given up
Maybe with their new leader they realise they’ve been sold a pup

As for their Leader, Mr Cunliffe, he just can’t shut his gob
He’s constantly making proclamations like an overly theatrical snob
And though the election may go down to the wire
As for Cunliffe, despite what he thinks, he’s not the Messiah

But worryingly a dark future may still come to fruition
The devil beast, some call it, or Frankenstein’s Coalition
If Russell, Winnie, Cunners and Harawira
Unite to impose a reign of terror

Luckily an alternative exists to this nightmare vision
One led by John Key, and Kiwis will make the right decision
And next time Cunliffe attacks Paula and Tau for being Westies
John will send Judith Collins round to crush his testes

The moral of this is that in 2014 the country could be on track
Or ruled by the coalition of idiots who want to drag us back
So, if you want a unified government that’s smart, sound and rational
For heaven’s sake go blue and Party Vote National!

I look forward to the video version!

Rangitata

Stuff reports:

Labour leader David Cunliffe believes the party can win the Rangitata electorate in 2014.

He said draft boundary changes, which give parts of Rakaia to Selwyn, mean the seat is “anybody’s game”.

I recall people saying Labour will win the seat in 2011 because of the South Canterbury Finance actions of the Government.  They didn’t get close. Jo Goodhew is a very effective and good local MP.

In 2005 she won the Aoraki seat off Labour by 6,937. In 2008 she won Rangitata by 8,112 and in 2011 won again by 6,537. Goodhew got around 56% of the total vote and Labour’s Blanchard 37%.

In the last election Labour polled well in Timaru but National was stronger in the Ashburton district.

Labour actually lost the party vote in Timaru, but their candidate did win more votes than Goodhew there. However Timaru makes up just one third of the electorate.

Mr Cunliffe, in South Canterbury to rouse the party faithful in Temuka, believes Labour can win Ashburton this time.

“Geraldine’s coming back in, we’ll have Point, we’ll have Temuka; I think we can win this seat.”

Rangitata is losing 1,600 people only to Selwyn around Rakaia. Geraldine and Temuka are not changing and included in the 2011 result.

It looks like three polling places are lost – Rakaia, Chertsay and Dorie. Adding them up Blanchard got 249 votes and Goodhew 676. Hence her majority would be expected to drop by around 427 votes, which is around 7% of her 6,537 majority.

Beware the Greenpeace petitions

Stuff reports:

Greenpeace is using the contact details from people who sign petitions to cold-call them and ask for donations.

The tactic has been labelled invasive, unethical and a possible breach of privacy by a Victoria University marketing professor.

Their parliamentary wing does much the same thing. The main reason the Greens spent tens of thousands of (taxpayers) dollars paying people to collect petition signatures wasn’t to actually have a referendum, but to harvest e-mail addresses for their database.

However, Greenpeace New Zealand fundraising director Michael Tritt said it would be “wrong” if it did not use the details people provided when they signed petitions.

Wrong???

“People aren’t silly. They know if they put down a phone number or email, there will be some form of communication.”

Not at all. Contact details on petitions were traditionally for verification. At the most they might expect a communication directly related to the petition such as an update on what has happened with it. They don’t expect to be called asking for money!

According to Greenpeace NZ’s 2012 annual report, its expenditure last year was $8.5 million. Of that, $2.7m was spent on fundraising.

Mr Tritt confirmed that was mostly to pay people to solicit money, but said for every dollar spent on fundraising, Greenpeace should get $3-$4 back.

It currently employs the equivalent of 50 fundraisers who get paid $18.40 an hour. They do not get commission but may get taken out for lunch if they had a good month, he said.

Of those, 20 were employed to call people at home, while 30 were “outreach campaigners” – street collectors sometimes uncharitably referred to as “chuggers”, or “charity muggers”.

So almost a third of what you donate to Greenpeace just covers fundraising.

McKenzie wins Te Tai Hauauru selection

Radio NZ report:

At a hui in Whanganui the party selected Ngati Raukawa treaty negotiator Chris McKenzie to contest the seat held by co-leader Tariana Turia who retires next year. Mr McKenzie has worked in Mrs Turia’s office.

McKenzie has been working for Turia as her senior advisor. Prior to that he was managing director of Raukawa Management Services and lead negotiator for the Raukawa Trust Board. he was originally a teacher, but moved into business and has just completed an MBA.

NZ 2nd place country to do business in

The Herald reports:

New Zealand has been named the world’s second best country to do business in, behind only resurgent Ireland in the annual list compiled by Forbes’ magazine.

The survey found New Zealand had the best scores among all countries for personal freedom and investor protection, as well as lack of red tape and corruption. …

Despite being the smallest economy to make the top 10, with an annual Gross Domestic Product of US$170 billion, New Zealand was one of the fastest growing last year with GDP jumping by 2.5 per cent.

Unless we vote for tax hikes, more debt and spending, and nationalisation.

The index is based on 11 factors, and the ranking for NZ for each is:

  1. property rights – 2nd
  2. innovation – 25th
  3. taxes – 21st
  4. technology – 24th
  5. corruption – 1st
  6. personal freedom – 1st
  7. trade freedom – 10th
  8. monetary freedom – 9th
  9. red tape – 1st
  10. investor protection – 1st
  11. stock market performance – 36th

So the areas for improvement are innovation, technology and reducing the tax burden – plus improving the stock market performance.

 

US Supreme Court to rule on software patents

The issue of whether software should be patentable has been settled in New Zealand, and may soon be settled in the US. The Washington Post reports:

In a trio of Supreme Court decisions between 1972 and 1981, the court held that mathematical algorithms were not eligible for patent protection. Since computer software is little more than mathematical algorithms encoded in machine-readable form, most of the software industry assumed this meant you couldn’t patent software. But then, in the 1990s, a patent-friendly appeals court handed down a series of decisionsthat opened the door to patents on software. That triggered a wave of patenting that has drowned the technology industry in litigation.

In principle, the Supreme Court’s old precedents ruling out patents on mathematical algorithms are still good law. And today, the Supreme Court announced that it would hear an appeal that, for the first time in 30 years, will directly address the patentability of software.

The court that has to date decided the law is the little known United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. It was only created in 1982. Unlike the other appeal courts, its rulings are binding on the entire United States, not just one circuit. Only the Supreme Court can over-rule it.

Now the Supreme Court will have an opportunity to weigh in on the case. And while the high court could issue a narrow ruling based on the details of the patents in this case, it could also take the opportunity to fix the software patent mess more broadly. All it would need to do is to reiterate its earlier position that patents claiming mathematical processes — a.k.a. computer software — isn’t eligible for patent protection unless it’s tied to a specific machine or physical process.

Which is basically now the law in New Zealand.

The high court will be reluctant to do this because it would be disruptive. Reiterating that mathematical algorithms can’t be patented would call into question thousands of patents held by major software companies. And these companies could complain, with some justification, that the Supreme Court’s failure to rule on the issue for more than 30 years was a tacit acceptance of rulings by the Federal Circuit.

Still, the federal circuit cannot overrule Supreme Court precedents. And the federal circuit’s experiment with software patents has been a disaster. As the patent scholar James Bessen has argued, the patent troll crisis is really a software patent crisis. Software patents are far more likely to be involved in litigation than other types of patent. The result: According to Bessen’s calculations, troll-related litigation cost the U.S. economy $29 billion in 2011 alone. Reiterating that “pure” software can’t be patented wouldn’t just be good law — it would also save the nation billions of dollars in litigation costs.

The case will be watched very closely.

Messaging vs Texts

The Herald reports:

Still paying for your mobile phone calls and texts? It won’t be long before you’re in the minority.

Technology commentators say apps that allow free calls and texts from their smartphones are becoming so popular that paid calls and texting will soon go the way of the fax machine.

Popular apps include Viber, Skype and WhatsApp. Even Facebook offers free messaging and numerous websites allow text messages to be sent free to mobile numbers around the world.

I use WhatsApp, and it is very good. Only a small proportion of my contacts are on there, but as that grows I suspect it may become the dominant message app.

Of course if you have an iPhone, you can also send a iMessage instead of a text.

The Commerce Commission’s annual telecommunications market monitoring report shows mobile voice call minutes declined to 4.35 billion in the 2011/12 year, down from 4.40 billion the previous year and 4.44 billion in 2009/10.

The number of text messages sent was still growing but the growth had slowed markedly.

More than a billion more messages changed hands between 2008/09 and 2009/10. By 2010/11 and 2011/12, the growth was only 300 million.

“The market for voice and text is as dead as a dodo,” Brislen said. “It’s a matter of letting it all play out. All you need now is to buy a data pack.

“Vodafone is already offering unlimited calls and texting if you buy a big data bundle. That’s the writing on the wall.”

Data is king.

22 top TV shows

News.com.au has what they call the 22 shows most worth bingeing on. They are:

  • Breaking Bad – started watching Season 1 on DVDs a few weeks ago, and damn good.
  • Girls – I love how Hannah, the lead, is such an unsympathetic character.
  • Mad Men – just finished watching Series 5 on DVD. Great one to watch from the beginning
  • Homeland – first season rocked.
  • Boardwalk Empire – yet to watch
  • Downton Abbey – my parents love it. Yet to view myself
  • The Sopranos – watched when live on TV – scheduled for a DVD binge
  • Friends – very easy to watch reruns, which is just as well as it has been on TV2 non stop for 15 years!
  • The Walking Dead – watched a few episodes, but not got into
  • Friday Night Lights – never heard of
  • The West Wing – have watched every episode at least six times. Love it.
  • House of Cards – am beyond addicted. Kevin Spacey as Frank is compelling.
  • Seinfeld – watched at the time, but not one for reruns
  • NCIS – watching both live and older episodes
  • House – watched live – excellent first few seasons but drifted off
  • The Newsroom – too preachy
  • Buffy – the first TV series watched from series beginning to end on DVD – lots of fun
  • Arrested Development – not watched
  • Game of Thrones – watched within hours of release
  • Scrubs – mildly funny at first, but annoying
  • Doctor Who – loved the Day of the Doctor
  • The Wire – have got Season 1 to watch as friends insist I will love it, but yet to get into

 

8/10 in 46 seconds

Why NZ Post is struggling – Kiwibank!

Brian Gaynor writes at NZ Herald:

Why does New Zealand Post continue to flounder while Deutsche Post, the German postal provider, has significantly outperformed the Frankfurt sharemarket in recent years and Royal Mail, the UK mail operator, has just had an extremely successful IPO?

A brief assessment of the three post providers shows that the two European companies have clear e-commerce driven parcel and logistics growth strategies whereas New Zealand Post has been adversely affected by the requirement to contribute substantial capital to Kiwibank, its 100 per cent owned subsidiary.

Kiwibank has never paid a dividend, off memory.

Royal Mail’s core operation is the collection, sorting, transportation and delivery of parcels and letters in the United Kingdom. This service operates under a “one price goes anywhere” principle on letters and parcels within the domestic market.

It also owns GLS (General Logistics Systems) which operates a substantial parcel business in 22 European countries.

Royal Mail, like Deutsche Post, has taken advantage of the huge increase in online purchases by individuals and businesses.

That is the future. Not letters.

Royal Mail’s share price closed at 5.96 on Thursday giving IPO participants a capital gain of over 80 per cent and resulting in a sharemarket value of 5.9 billion.

Austrian Post, PostNL in The Netherlands, bpost in Belgium and SingPost in Singapore are also listed on stock exchanges.

Unfortunately the story in New Zealand is far less optimistic even though New Zealand Post reported net earnings, before one-off gains from the sale of assets, of $45.4 million for the June 2013 year. The problem is that the group’s core postal services reported a net loss of $51.5 million for the latest twelve month period (see table).

The focus is on Kiwibank:

No one would argue against the importance of parcels but what investments has NZ Post made in this area? What has it done to capture the e-commerce trade?

For example, parcels were mentioned only thirteen times in the group’s 2011 annual report whereas Kiwibank was referred to 197 times.

One of the problems with NZ Post is that Kiwibank is soaking up most of the group’s surplus cash and seems to be squeezing out the traditional postal services.

A possible solution:

The reality is NZ Post is asset rich but cash poor because Kiwibank, the group’s best performing operation, doesn’t pay a dividend and will require $100 million of additional capital. As a consequence NZ Post does not appear to have invested heavily in its parcel business, which has the best long-term postal growth prospects.

Thus the company has two choices. It can either focus on Kiwibank and let its postal operations decline with more and more branch closures and staff layoffs.

The other alternative is to partially monetise its Kiwibank shareholding by selling a minority stake to the Crown, a trade buyer or through an IPO. This would give NZ Post cash to invest in its parcel business, fund its ongoing commitment to Kiwibank and pay a higher dividend to the Crown.

Sadly, will never happen.

NZ remains least corrupt country

Transparency International has found the NZ public sector remains the least corrupt in the world. The top 10 countries are (100 means perfect):

  • New Zealand 91/100 (+1)
  • Denmark 91 (+1)
  • Finland 89 (-1)
  • Sweden 89(+1)
  • Norway 86 (+1)
  • Singapore 86 (-1)
  • Switzerland 85 (-1)
  • Netherlands 83 (-1)
  • Australia 81 (-4)
  • Canada 81 (-3)

At the bottom is Afghanistan, Somalia and North Korea on 8.

Labour campaigning on the big issues of where you can eat your lunch

Stuff reports:

A Labour MP has accused Kapiti Expressway workers of being “extremely offensive” to Maori by eating their lunch at a wahi tapu site as historical human remains lay nearby.

Darien Fenton said at a transport and industrial relations select committee meeting yesterday that the workers were spotted eating their lunch at the wahi tapu site at El Rancho, Waikanae, which includes the Takamore urupa, and a macrocarpa known as the Maketu tree.

You’re not allowed to have a sandwich under a tree now?

Ms Fenton told the committee she had spoken to two women from Te Ati Awa. “[They] understood the site was tapu until the archaeologists had finished their work, yet we found workers having lunch onsite which was extremely offensive to local Maori.”

Speaking later, she said that seeing workers eating on the sacred site, with recently discovered human remains from the burial site nearby, had shocked her.

We had better ban food from all areas in NZ where someone is buried. The Savage Memorial for a start.

“The simplest way to put it is . . . [people] should treat it like you’d treat a church, the sacredness of the church. The land is sacred in the same way to us.”

You can’t eat in church now? What about all that bread and wine?

NZTA Wellington Highways manager Rod James said the particular area at El Rancho fell under the jurisdiction of the Takamore Trust.

The site was not identified by the “mandated iwi” as tapu, they had written authorisation to start work at that particular site, and two iwi earthworks monitors were present, he said.

“Workers were assembling to be briefed by iwi and the archaeologist. We are not aware of any concerns about conduct from the mandated iwi.”

Good to see Labour focusing on the big issues of the day!

Labour attacking public servants

Stuff reports:

Labour has accused one of New Zealand’s top public servants of behaving like an “emperor” and warned he may struggle to gain a Labour government’s confidence.

Labour forestry spokesman Shane Jones questioned the decision of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) to bring more than 30 officials to yesterday’s appearance before the commerce select committee.

The number of officials is a reflection of the huge number of areas MBIE has. If there is a question on immigration, then the energy person can’t really answer it.

Jones said the large team brought to the committee “hinted at the CEO’s vanity” and said Smol had a “lot of work to do” to create confidence from Labour MPs when they next took power.

“If that doesn’t change, by this time next year, then the Kaiser will learn it’s a different world,” he said.

So Jones is saying he may sack the CEO, and compares him to a German dictator. Charming.

Herald on the need to improve education

The Herald editorial:

When bad news is delivered, there is always a temptation to shoot the messenger. Thankfully, that, by and large, has not been the case with this country’s sharp drop in international education rankings in an OECD survey that assesses the knowledge and skills of 15-year-old pupils in mathematics, reading and science in 65 countries. In maths, New Zealand dropped from 13th three years ago to 23rd, while in science the fall was from seventh to 18th. In reading, where this country also ranked seventh in 2009, there was a slide to 13th.

To her credit, the Education Minister, Hekia Parata, did not attempt to discredit the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) rankings. She chose instead to depict them as confirmation of the challenge ahead. It fell to think-tank the New Zealand Initiative to underline the rankings’ serious implications. This “Pisa shock” should, it said, be a catalyst to change education for the better. The institute pointed to the example provided by Germany, which in little more than a decade had achieved the sort of improvement that must now be sought by this country.

Hopefully those who resist change will now concede there is a need for change.

Broadly, the Pisa assessment identifies the lifting of teacher quality as the key to such a turnaround. The best-performing countries, it says, put a special emphasis on teacher selection, training, career incentives, and innovative teaching. When deciding where to invest, they prioritise the quality of teachers over classroom sizes.

Crucial.

The importance of excellent teaching comes as no surprise. People have become increasingly aware of this, and are keen to see high-quality teachers acknowledged and rewarded appropriately. Ms Parata has proposed the development of a new teacher appraisal system, a requirement for all trainee teachers to have a postgraduate qualification and, potentially, performance pay. The latest Pisa rankings confirm all would be welcome. It can be no coincidence that in world-leading Shanghai, performance-related pay for teachers is normal.

The time has come for it. Top teachers should be able to earn over $100,000 a year, just for being great teachers.

But implementing their findings on what works will require political will. The teacher unions will resist any change to a national bargaining system that rewards experience rather than excellence. 

The first thing that should go is the national bargaining system. Let each school pay its teachers what they want to. Let them compete for the best teachers!

Nelson Mandela RIP

As was inevitable, Nelson Mandela has died, aged 95.

I was fortunate enough to briefly meet him when he visited New Zealand in the 1990s. It was the typical two second greet and meet, but he had almost an aura about him that I have not encountered before or since. Former Governor-General Cath Tizard summed it up well:

He put his arm around my shoulders as we walked back to the terminal – and thereafter called me Cathy. What a lovely man he was. He quite enchanted everyone he met with his natural manner and simple charm. I was more in awe of him than of any of the queens, kings and presidents I had ever met.

Mandela had a special role in the world, for three reasons, I would say. One was his incredible personal humility and charm. The other two were his role as the leader of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa, and the other was his role as the first democratically elected President of South Africa.

His role in the anti-apartheid struggle was controversial. While the struggle was noble, the tactics changed from civil disobedience to armed struggle. Reasonable people can disagree on whether it is legitimate to resort to violence, if you are not allowed to vote on the basis of your race, and there is no prospect of change. For my 2c, I don’t think resorting to violence was the right decision, but I may have thought differently if I was a black in South Africa in the 1950s and 1960s.

He spent 27 years in prison. Upon his release he was elected President of South Africa in their first democratic elections. And his remarkable legacy is that he preached peace and reconciliation, not revenge. Let me tell you that if my political enemies kept me in jail for 27 years, then the last thing on my mind coming out would be peace and reconciliation. I would have a very long list of names I wanted utu on.

Of course post-apartheid South Africa is far from ideal. It has many challenges, partly because so much of its population were kept out of decent education and jobs for generations. But if any other person bar Mandela had become their first President, I think it would be far far worse. He was elected at the age of 75, and in an act of unification made F W De Klerk his Deputy President.

Acts that greatly unified the country included reaching out to the widow of apartheid founder Hendrik Verwoerd with forgiveness and reconciliation, and also urging black South Africans to get behind the previously despised Springboks.

Mandela is not a saint, but he was a symbol, and he played the major role in eventually peacefully ending apartheid, that made the world a better place.

The Wellington Sevens

Stuff reports:

Sevens fans oblivious to the sport being played on the field need to start paying attention as organisers look to “transform” Wellington’s biggest party and make it more Olympic.

The centrepiece of Wellington’s sports and events calendar needed to change ahead of the rugby code’s debut at the Rio Olympic Games in 2016, general manager Marty Donoghue told a Wellington City Council committee yesterday.

“We’re at a point when we need to transform.”

That move is being supported by veteran rugby commentator Keith Quinn, who says the party has overtaken the tournament.

After the meeting, Mr Donoghue – who has spent just three weeks in the tournament’s top job – said the idea was to still have the party and costumes but to put more emphasis on rugby.

A worthy aim, but good luck with that.

Increasing the rugby and family zones was a way to enhance the sport aspect, and potentially attract new audiences.

One small problem with that.

The family and rugby zones were both used at this year’s tournament, and tickets for the 2014 event have been the first in years not to sell out within minutes, with about 3000 still available yesterday.

No one wants to be in the nana section.

The move to focus on sport was backed by Quinn, who ranked the Hong Kong and Dubai events ahead of Wellington’s because they focused more on the rugby.

“The Wellington Sevens is very good, but it’s at its best on a sunny day on the second afternoon, when the crowd finally does focus in on the last stage of the semifinals and the various finals . . . Sometimes I have felt that the party has distracted the crowd from the event, the sports event.”

I think many who attend have the view that the rugby distracts the crowd from the party.

The 90 day trial

Stuff reports:

Tens of thousands of workers have been sacked under the 90-day-trial period, with many let go because they “did not fit in”.

Figures published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment show about 69,000 employers took on at least one new staff member in 2012 under the legislation.

That’s 59% of employers.

It is not known how many workers were dismissed during the 90-day-trial period, but the figures revealed 27 per cent of employers said they had fired at least one new employee during or at the end of their trial.

This means at least 18,000 people lost their jobs in the first three months of employment last year, with the actual figure likely to be much higher.

When asked why they had dismissed staff, most employers said it was because they were unreliable or had a bad attitude. Other reasons included employees not having the necessary skills, not getting on with colleagues, and not fitting in.

The law has been widely criticised by unions and the Labour Party, which says it will repeal it if it is elected next year.

If Labour don’t repeal it, the unions can vote in a new leader!

Until we gained the trial period law in 2009, we were I think the only country in the OECD that didn’t have a grievance free trial period.

In terms of dismissals during the period, 56% said it was because the employee was unreliable and had a bad attitude. 51% said it was because they did not have the skills to do the job.

But Hospitality New Zealand Wellington president Jeremy Smith praised the trial period, claiming it had been positive for both employers and employees.

Mr Smith, who owns several bars and hotels including The Old Bailey, St Johns and the Cambridge Hotel, said he had hired dozens of staff he would not otherwise have considered.

Because of the transient nature of hospitality, it was often difficult to check references so a trial period “levelled the playing field”.

“We’re in a position now where we’re a lot more comfortable giving people an opportunity.”

And this is backed up:

Labour Minister Simon Bridges believed the legislation was working well.

In 2012, more than 131,000 people were employed on a trial period and nearly a third of all employers who used the trial period said they would not have hired their most newest staff member without it, he said.