I’ve blogged the latest two polls at Curiablog. A Roy Morgan poll and a 3 News Reid Research poll.
Both have National up and Labour down, and the 3 News poll has a huge 17.1% drop in the net approval rating for David Shearer. This is of course what those in his caucus briefing against him want – to damage him so badly, that a change is inevitable.
This is the current average of the public polls.
Stuff reports:
Police say sink-holes have opened up in the Wellington CBD following a severe magnitude 6.5 earthquake that damaged buildings, cut power, trapped people in lifts and injuring at least two.
Inspector Ian Harris, of Police Communications, said there had been sink-holes reported on Featherston St between Johnston and Waring Taylor streets.
The sink-holes were on the road but it was not known how big of how many there were, he said. The road has been closed.
Good that there were no serious injuries, but a reminder of how vulnerable Wellington is to earthquakes.
I worry how Wellington will fare when an even bigger quake strikes. If the CBD comes down, like in Christchurch, then different parts of the city are effectively cut off from each other, including the hospital. The road links north are also very vulnerable.
Wellington CBD workers are being urged to hold-off heading into work till noon tomorrow to give landlords and engineers time to assess quake-damaged buildings.
Wellington Region Civil Defence Controller, Bruce Pepperell, said people should check with work before heading into the CBD and if they did come in, stay away from quake-damaged facades.
“I am worried about some of the facades. It would only take a little shake to move some of that stuff and it could end in tragedy.”
KiwiRail spokeswoman Sophie Lee said there had been no reports of damage to the tracks this evening. But because much of the assessment was done after dark, the call had been made to do a more thorough check in the morning, she said.
“Given the seriousness of the aftershocks and the fact that (the inspection) is taking a lot of time, we’ve decided to take every precaution.”
No buses were available on such short notice so rail commuters would need to make alternative arrangements, she said.
KiwiRail was hopeful of having at least some services back up and running by midday on Monday.
Rather glad I was out of Wellington for this one. Being on the top floor of an apartment building, we get pretty shaken about in even minor quakes. I’m told the TV fell off the stand, books all came off the shelves, glasses smashed etc.
Stuff reports:
Moves to push for a law change allowing battered wives who kill their husbands in cold blood to plead self-defence are being considered by a government committee.
The Family Violence Deaths Review Committee says New Zealand is out of step with other countries in not offering at least a partial defence for women who kill their husbands after years of abuse.
If there is to be such a defence recommended, surely it should be available to all spouses/partners – not just wives?
The defence can be used when the killing is an immedite retaliation but not when the killing is premeditated.
The committee initially planned to recommend a law change, but has stepped back from that while it continues discussing the proposal.
I’m against it being lawful to do a premeditated killing. Apart from the fact that when someone is dead, it is very easy to claim they were an abuser (as they can’t contradict any claims), the preferred response to domestic abuse is to leave them, not kill them. I know it is not as simple as that for some people, but killing is never the answer unless you are in immediate harm.
Stuff reports:
British comedian Mel Smith, who became a household name for a series of television sketch shows in the 1970s and 80s which colleagues said had inspired a generation of comics, has died of a heart attack, his agent said overnight (NZ time).
Smith, who died yesterday (NZ time) aged 60, found fame starring in hugely popular shows Not The Nine O’clock News and Alas Smith and Jones and went on to direct the films Bean and The Tall Guy.
I loved both Alas Smith and Jones and Not The Nine O’clock News. Sad he died aged only 60.
After Bryce Canyon, we drove east to Canyonlands, and after a quick look around there headed to Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. The views from the car as we drove away from Bryce Canyon were incredible, and varied.
The road away from Bryce.
Then from canyons to forest.
A typical view.
This may not look very impressive at first glance – just a crumbling cliff. But look at those trees at the bottom and you get some idea how huge it is.
This cabin belonged to an original settler. Believe it or not, his family of 10 slept in that cabin.
Very different colours to before.
Looks like a face.
Then big plains ahead,
Another huge crumbly piece of nature.
It was two to three hours of views like this.
Back to the rock formations seen more back at Bryce.
You have no idea how vast that space is.
And this was over at Canyonlands.
The headline:
Schools fail to meet ambitious Government targets
The first para:
National education data shows schools are not meeting ambitious targets set by the Government as part of its better public service targets and Maori and Pasifika students are still trailing in achievement.
The second para:
Only four of the 16 regions across New Zealand are meeting a target of 98 per cent of children participating in early childhood education by 2016.
Is it 2016 yet?
The story is fine in that it reports 12 out of 16 regions are not yet at the target, three years out from it. But you can’t label that a failure.
Note sub-editors do the headlines, not the story authors.
Audrey Young quotes Phil Goff in an article on David Shearer:
But Goff said that Shearer, like every Leader of the Opposition, was up against the combined resources of a Government machine with huge resources and of some powerful bloggers behind it, intent on discrediting him.
Powerful??
Influential one could argue, but powerful? Who exactly do we have power over?
Sure both Cam and I have had good stories that have damaged Labour. My rumbling of the Labour MPs at the Sky City box, and the leak to Cam of the Labour Party rule changes, including the man ban.
But to blame bloggers for the political incompetence that should have stopped both stories before they even gestated is making excuses. Likewise the inability to respond to the stories when they did emerge. Labour managed to drag the Sky City story out an entire week by trying to hide who actually attended. The was nothing to do with powerful bloggers, just stupidity.
Audrey Young writes:
Labour made the GCSB story about John Key, not Kim Dotcom, or the agency itself. And with a few victories against him, such as fingering him for shoulder-tapping an old school mate for the GCSB directorship, it could not bring itself to support Key’s bill.
Key has not been given credit for much in the process. But he clearly had concerns about the GCSB before the unlawful spying on Dotcom.
It had been run by a tight club within the defence and intelligence community and established some disturbing work habits, as the Kitteridge report exposed.
The notion that everything was hunky dory back in the days of former Chief of Defence Force Sir Bruce Ferguson is myth. Most of the legally dubious spying on New Zealanders went on under his, and Labour’s, watch.
Of the 88 cases, only four were warranted, according to the agency itself.
Ian Fletcher’s appointment should, at the very least, be seen as an attempt to break the stranglehold of the old boys’ defence network on the agency and letting some civilian light into it.
Rebecca Kitteridge’s appointment said a lot too. As Cabinet secretary she is not the minute-taker but the guardian of proper process, ensuring that things are done by the rules and the law.
It is clear from her report that the GCSB was not following the law on the issue of collecting metadata on New Zealanders and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security thought it was.
Key is cleaning up a mess entirely uncreated by him. The only area of real criticism is not being more forthright over his ringing Ian Fletcher to let him know about the job. Labour created the mess with their 2003 law change and seem to be refusing to play a constructive role in fixing it. In fact they have said a public inquiry should review if we even stay in the Five Eyes network with Australia, Canada, UK and US – possibly the stupidest of all their policies.
There are three things he could do in the coming week that would make the bill more acceptable than it is now, to the public and other parties.
First, he could write two reviews into the bill, one to begin in 18 months, straight after the next election, and one every five years after that, as the Australians do.
It’s effectively what Labour is promising.
Several weeks ago Key said he would promise a review only if it would get Labour on board.
He should do it to get the public on board, whether or not Labour agrees.
Secondly, he should go back to the Kitteridge report for a lead on how to beef up oversight. The report cited this quote from the 1999 Inspector-General as evidence of how woeful oversight had been: “The fact that there are very few complaints and little need for any inquiry … of the GCSB indicates … that the performance of their activities does not impinge adversely on New Zealand citizens”. …
Thirdly Key, as Prime Minister and the minister responsible for the GCSB, needs to make a clear statement on metadata (information about communications).
Specifically, he needs to say what the GCSB has done in the past and what constraints it will operate under in the future. He should admit that the agency has previously, on many occasions, collected metadata on New Zealanders unlawfully – believing it was doing so lawfully.
He should reassure New Zealanders, if he can do so truthfully, that there has been no mass collection of metadata passed on to intelligence partners overseas and there won’t be in the future.
He should assure the public that any collection of metadata of New Zealanders in the future, like other communications, will have to be by warrant.
The first two seem sensible. The third could be more challenging. People use the term metadata in different ways.
You get cynical when you see claims such as a walk is the “greatest three mile hike in the world”. However when it comes to this walk from Bryce Canyon, I think they may be right. It is hard to imagine a better one. The photos below don’t do it justice as the panoramic views can’t be captured in normal photo, but trust me this is a must do if ever in Utah, or near.
The hike is a combination of the Queen’s Garden trail and the Navajo loop trail.
We got up at 5.45 am so we could make Sunrise Point by, well, sunrise. Gorgeous.
A nice shot of us, with the valleys behind.
This is where you then head down into. Unique beauty.
The path down is narrow, with huge drops on either side.
Then you hit the valley floor.
Go through some man made doors in the rocks.
Then it goes from all cliff and rocks to some bush in the valley.
Looking up at that view, is just the best.
Then the hard part comes – getting back up. A very small squeeze between two walls. hence this section is known as Wall Street.
Looking down on the climb we came up. It was a series of around 50 zig-zags.
A cute baby squirrel at the top.
Looking back at where we were.
Then you have a walk along the ridge-line. Looks like you can ski there in winter! Would love to see this place covered in snow.
You can do a three hour trek by horseback through the canyons also. Be warned that we were told the horses always walk right on the edge going down, which is meant to be a bit nerve-wracking with falls of several hundred feet on both sides.
And on a lighter note, liked this sign.
Coming Up this week on The Nation
Why won’t Kiwis work on farms — a special panel.
And why won’t they also work on fishing boats — Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse.
Steve Adams — why he may be the last Kiwi to make the NBA draft.
What price 100% Pure New Zealand? Tunnels and monorails in the Conservation estate.Saturday 9.30 am and Sunday 8.00 am on TV 3
The Dom Post reported:
New Zealand society is near tipping point, with the number of children born outside wedlock fast approaching those born to married parents for the first time.
Statistics New Zealand figures show there were just 1000 more children born to married parents in the March quarter.
That is well down on the year 2000, when children born to unwed parents were outnumbered by more than seven to one.
In 1980 the gap was close to 30,000, while in 1951 the number of children born to unmarried parents was just 2000, compared to the 48,000 born to married parents.
It is unclear if civil unions are included in “wedlock” for the purposes of this data.
I’m quite traditional personally when it comes to marriage and children, and think ideally parents should be married to each other if they are having kids together. I like the fact it is a life-long commitment (even though of course many fail). If you have kids with someone, you are connected to them for the rest of your lives.
However many adults have long-lasting relationships, and are not married. They just don’t believe in the institution. I don’t think there is a huge difference between them and married couples when it comes to welfare of children.
Where there is a big disparity, is when the parents do not stay together. On average (so not all kids), kids raised in a one parent household do far far worse in almost every social and economic indicator.
So I’m not worried if parents are married to each other or not. What concerns me is whether they will stay together while their kids are young – and need both parents.
I haven’t had much time to take pics of the local bird-life (or creepy-crawlies) so this edition is from a stream in the Waitakere Ranges instead.
Click for larger, higher res image
It’s the Mokoroa Stream if any Aucklanders are curious 🙂
Herald Economics Editor Brian Fallow writes:
The idea that New Zealand has become one of the most unequal societies in the developed world is just not supported by the data. It is a belief that is in some danger of hardening into received wisdom.
The data being:
The Ministry of Social Development has just updated its comprehensive (200 pages) and careful report, Household Incomes in New Zealand: Trends in Indicators of Inequality and Hardship, to include the results of Statistics New Zealand’s 2011/12 household economic survey (HES).
While the report debunks the notion that New Zealand is conspicuous among developed countries for inequality, it is far from providing a defence of the status quo or grounds for complacency.
In terms of the top vs the bottom 10%:
Another way of measuring income inequality is to look at the income of the top decile or 10 per cent of households (when ranked by income) and compare it with the bottom decile’s.
The average over the past four household economic surveys is that the top decile have received 8.5 times the income of the bottom one, after tax and transfers.
That puts us in the middle of the OECD rankings, and lower than Australia and Canada (8.9 times), Britain (10 times) and the United States (16 times).
Also:
Between the 2008/09 HES and the 2011/12 survey market income for New Zealand households fell 2.6 per cent in real terms, similar to the declines seen in the US, Britain and Australia.
But the net change in median disposable income (after tax and transfers) was a rise of 0.5 per cent over that three-year period as tax cuts and increased New Zealand superannuation compensated for the decline in market income.
Called taking the edges off the recession.
“For many OECD countries, lower income households tended to lose more, or gain less, than high income families,” the report says.
For New Zealand, however, there was a small gain for bottom-decile households of 1 to 3 per cent and a net fall, of around 8 per cent, for the top decile.
Please remember this data when people go on about how the rich have done best under National. Simply not true.
Stuff reports:
Conservation minister Nick Smith has thrown his weight behind calls to expand the use of 1080 to more of the conservation estate, saying he expects a report from the conservation department in a matter of weeks.
It comes after the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment this week called for more use of the poison used to kill pests like possums, stoats and rats.
The damage done by those pests is immense, and while few people like 1080, there is no other viable alternative.
The Kiwiblog mobile office. Now we are out of Nevada, the temperatures are much more pleasant. Still in the 30s, but not the 40s. Great to be able to enjoy a beer outside at night.
A natural tunnel on the way to Bryce Canyon. You also have a one mile long tunnel as you exit Zion National Park.
There’s an 18 mile main road you can drive up in Bryce Canyon, and it has scores of views like this.
A 2d photo can not do justice to the incredible views that stretch into the horizon.
A natural bridge.
One curious bird.
At the far end of the valley.
Auckland Girl with a scenic backdrop.
This photo is taken right from the edge. I wondered if it was safe, but figured they would have a sign up if it was not. The drop down would hurt.
15 metres along the trail out of sight in our direction was this sign. Would be helpful if they had warning signs up at both ends!
This is a camp ground just outside the park. Pretty cool to be able to camp in a teepee. We’re actually camped inside the park itself.
Did a short walk today, and planning a dawn walk tomorrow to see the sunrise from on high.
Stuff reports:
More than 3000 alleged welfare cheats receiving a total of $33.7 million a year have been caught in the past six months.
The Government says the findings are the result of a new way of sharing information between Inland Revenue and the Ministry of Social Development which started this while it is also looking at tying the amount of money they have to pay back to their wages in a bid to recoup costs faster.
Associate social development minister Chester Borrows said a total of 3139 people were caught in the investigation, with 1948 on an unemployment benefit and 559 on a sickness benefit.
He said the ministry believed it would be able to prove a ”big chunk of them” were intentionally defrauding the taxpayer though some could have been a legitimate oversight, he said.
”The fact is that these 3139 have been found to be paying more tax than they should have been if they were only earning their $100 a week maximum that they were allowed to on a benefit so there is obviously a reason for suspicion there,” he said.
That’s a great practical example of the value of being able to have IRD and WINZ check data with each other.
The Herald reports:
New Zealand’s fight to establish a massive marine reserve in Antarctic waters has been delayed at least another three months after countries failed to agree on the ambitious sanctuary for a second time.
The proposal to create a 2.27 million sq km marine sanctuary in the Ross Sea, which was backed by the United States, failed yesterday after a consensus could not be reached within the 25 members of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources.
A delegation from Russia did not support the proposal at the meeting in Bremerhaven, Germany, questioning whether the commission had the legal power to establish a reserve in the region. Along with Ukraine, Russia expressed concern about the increased restrictions on fishing in the plans.
This is a great pity. The Ross Sea should have the same scientific reserve status as the continent itself.
An amusing article by Claire Trevett on MPs and Twitter:
Justice Minister Judith Collins is the biggest surprise in this regard. While many MPs delegate tweetery to their staff, Collins runs her own with a steel fist. And with what unbridled glee does she deploy that fist. She alternates between Agony Aunt and Iron Lady, dispensing kindly advice to some, but getting others with a swift upper cut.
So an exchange with Clare Curran over Family Court reforms somehow ended up being a critique of Green co-leader Metiria Turei and her jacket, both of which Collins decreed were “vile, wrong and ugly”.
She revelled in Labour’s man ban, telling Trevor Mallard she could see why Labour wanted a man-ban “if you’re anything to go by”. She reserves her best patronising tones for Chris Hipkins: after finding out he was calling her “Cruella” she replied “Chris is a dear boy. Probably stayed up all night thinking of that one.”
Superb response.
MPs on Twitter play to a relatively small audience. It is mainly beltway or enthusiasts of politics, rather than undecided voters who might be swayed by the persuasiveness of an MP’s tweeting skills. It can be useful for making announcements though – one of the more astonishing moments in recent times was last week when Labour MPs turned to Twitter to reject reported rumours that a coup was under way. Grant Robertson, Annette King and Chris Hipkins led the charge, getting their message out but also turning it from a virtual non-story to a story about their vigorous denials on Twitter.
The predominant motivation for those MPs, therefore, is pure fun. When the Speaker calls order on the interjections, the MPs simply turn to Twitter where there is no Speaker to rain on their parade. Should some earnest person try to intervene, they can simply be taken out of the game by being blocked to shut them up. There are no whips on Twitter, no Speakers. An honourable mention also goes to a former MP who may be an actual MP again in the future, Labour’s Kelvin Davis, @NgatiBird. His recent contributions include this on the Pakeha Party: “they want what Maori have. Excellent. They are welcome to our 16 per cent unemployment rate, lower life expectancy, and gout.”
And Claire wants Shane Jones on Twitter:
The MP who most people want to join Twitter is Labour’s Shane Jones, the master of the backhanded compliment. His recent insults include this, about the Green Party’s Ikaroa-Rawhiti candidate Marama Davidson: “Marama is a younger, somewhat smarter, version of Metiria.” It is a perfectly formed tweet, but in this case was said during an interview with yours truly, who never found an opportunity to use it. …
The only people who do not want Shane Jones to join Twitter are the Labour Party communications staff, who quiver in fear at the very thought.
A shame.
Sunbeams over the Two Thumb range, Rangitata valley. Canterbury New Zealand. Landscape photography by Todd Sisson
I was super tempted to post another Milford image today – just to stir the pot on the tunnel news. However, I am away on holiday and didn’t relish the prospect of playing the role of ‘burning sphincter through which a partially digested enviro-flamefest passed’ on a sunny winter’s day 🙂 David has dutifully kicked off the debate over here though.
This image is another recent discovery from the archives that I used in our upcoming ebook (which will hit the e-shelves next Tuesday). Sorry about the PC-desktop unfriendly format, but I like this one a lot and just felt like sharing it.
Cheers – Todd
You may download the large version of today’s image from this link: Password = wwp
Cheers – Todd [www.sisson.co.nz]
Stuff reports:
Documents made public yesterday show officials were surprised in November 2011 when the casino operator suddenly put compensation on the table. It came after SkyCity made a series of ambitious demands in return for building the Auckland facility, including 850 more pokie machines and lowering of the gambling age to 18.
And they got only 230, and no change to the gambling age (I think it should be 18 regardless incidentally).
Here’s a comparison of what they asked for, and got:
I’d say the Government drove a pretty hard bargain. Also kudos to them for releasing all these documents in advance of OIA requests, and not trying to say they are commercially sensitive and unable to be released It is good to have this full transparency.
Huff Post blogs:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) reelection campaign was backed by four more Democratic elected officials Monday, bringing the total to 36 statewide. …
Christie has been backed by two of the state’s most powerful Democrats, Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo and state Sen. Brian Stack, in his reelection campaign. DiVincenzo and Stack, who both command powerful voter turnout armies and are popular in their home regions, have been long time Christie allies. A third powerful Democrat, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, has not ruled out backing Christie.
Christie is obviously going to win re-election massively.
What is more interesting is all these endorsements will help him in 2016, if he can win the Republican nomination. Having so many senior Democrats endorse you as Governor, means that you can appeal to independents and moderates and very importantly be seen as someone who can break the gridlock in Washington.
I think Christie may be the only Republican that has a chance against Hillary Clinton in the general election. I think he could beat Clinton. A Clinton or Bush has been in the White House for 20 of the last 25 years. Why carry on a dynasty.
However can Christie win the Republican nomination. Many would rather let Clinton win, than nominate Christie. However if the Republicans fail to win the White House in 2016, then there is a fair chance they lose a majority on the Supreme Court, which would be a setback.
The next three years will be interesting.