The public results are here.

Party Vote

• National 39.4% (+1.8% from November)
• Labour 33.1% (-2.2%)
• ACT 10.4% (+0.5%)
• Greens 8.1% (+0.2%)
• Maori Party 3.5% (+1.9%)
• NZ First 2.9% (-0.8%)
• TOP 1.0% (-1.1%)
• Conservatives 0.3% (-0.6%)

Seats

• National 51 (+18 from election)
• Labour 42 (-23)
• ACT 13 (+3)
• Greens 10 (nc)
• Maori Party 4 (+2)

Government

• National/ACT 64/120
• Labour/Greens 52/120

Preferred PM

• Jacinda Ardern 35.3% (+0.3%)
• Christoper Luxon 26.3% (+5.2%)
• David Seymour 7.1% (+1.0%)
• Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.9%)
• Chloe Swarbrick 3.1% (-2.7%)

Favourability

• Jacinda Ardern: 42% (-4%) favourable, 39% (+1%) unfavourable = +3% (-5%) net favourability
• Christopher Luxon: 35% (+10%) favourable, 33% (+5%) unfavourable = +2% (+5%) net favourability
• David Seymour: 33% (+7%) favourable, 34% (-3%) unfavourable = -1% (+10%) net favourability
• Grant Robertson: 23% favourable, 38% unfavourable = -15% net favourability
• Adrian Orr: 11% favourable, 25% unfavourable = -14% net favourability

Stats NZ reports:

Food prices were 10.7 percent higher in November 2022 compared with November 2021, Stats NZ said today. 

In November 2022, the annual increase was due to rises across all the broad food categories we measure. Compared with November 2021:

• grocery food prices increased by 10 percent
• fruit and vegetable prices increased by 20 percent
• restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased by 8.0 percent
• meat, poultry, and fish prices increased by 12 percent
• non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 7.8 percent.

This is the highest level of food inflation since 1989, except for one month in Sep 2008 when it hit 10.8%.

Stuff reports:

Cabinet Ministers Poto Williams, David Clark, and Aupito William Sio will retire from politics at the 2023 election.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the resignations on Tuesday morning. Stuff reported last week Clark was expected to resign, and Ardern had forecast other ministers would be headed out the door in the coming year.

MPs Jamie Strange, Marja Lubeck, and Paul Eagle would also resign at the 2023 election. Eagle, the MP for Wellington electorate Rongotai, recently ran for the city’s mayoralty but was unsuccessful.

Clark will be a bit of a loss to Labour. He didn’t do well in health (but Little is making him look better every day) but was competent in other portfolios.

The real surprise is Jamie Strange as he is a first term electorate MP. I can’t recall the last time an electorate MP retired (as in voluntarily, not due to scandal) after one term, but he is honest about it:

Strange, speaking to Stuff about his resignation on Tuesday, said he was “better suited for government than opposition if you look at my personality type, so it was good timing for me coming into government”

That is an extraordinary thing to say, as it is all but an admission that he doesn’t not expect Labour to win.

No doubt he also looked at the result of the Hamilton West by-election and figured that he has a fair chance of losing his seat and is unlikely to be given a winnable list place.

This is probably not the last announcement of retirements. I expect at least one more, and you may also have some senior MPs go list only, so they can bail after the election without causing a by-election.

The Worlds of Journalism Study asked a number of interesting questions on NZ journalists. The aspect of most interest to me was their self-professed political views. The results were:

• Left of centre 81%
• Right of centre 15%

Of the 81% who said they were left of centre, a quarter (or 20% of all journalists) said they were hard or extreme left.

If you compare those who say they range from left to extreme left (42%) to those who range from right to extreme right (1%) it shows how the worldview of most journalists is so far out of sync with the population.

This doesn’t mean they are consciously biased. It just means many have a worldview where they simply don’t understand the values of half the population

Newshub reports:

The Chief Ombudsman says the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment acted “unreasonably” in its advice to ministers over the managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) voucher allocation system.

“We ended up with a lottery – a system that did not fully allow for the consideration and prioritisation of individual circumstances of people trying to come home during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Peter Boshier said on Monday.

This is not news to most people, but useful to have it confirmed by the Chief Ombudsman.

“Key decisions about the allocation system were made by government ministers and I do not have jurisdiction under the Ombudsmen Act to recommend they apologise,” Boshier said. 

This is polite speak for I can’t tell Ministers to apologise, but they should!

The Herald reports:

Former New Zealand Herald political journalist John Armstrong has died, aged 68.

He had a distinguished career reporting and commenting on politics for 30 years until ill health forced him to retire in 2015.

His incisive writing earned him great respect among peers and politicians alike.

Armstrong began work in the parliamentary Press Gallery in 1985 for the New Zealand Press Association and he joined the Herald in 1987.

He worked for a decade as the Herald’s political editor. In 2003, a few years after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, he became political correspondent.

John’s columns were mandatory reading for everyone in politics. No other column would be awaited so eagerly with his take on the week. They were massively influential because John was so fair and incisive. He was a model for press gallery reporting.

It is remarkable that he managed to carry on writing for 15 years or so with Parkinson’s. It was difficult to see his physical decline, but he didn’t let it stop him doing his job.

I do not recall a time when John Armstrong wasn’t in the press gallery. He was there basically my entire adult life. I first got to know John as a Young National, and then as a parliamentary staffer and since then as a blogger and commentator. He was always one of my favourite people to talk to on politics, as I often went away with some new thoughts that had not occurred to me previously.

I, like many others, will miss him. Rest in Peace John.

Stuff reports:

A rusty storage tank that once housed a garden centre’s cafe and shop is on the heritage list in Wellington’s new district plan, but its film industry owners don’t agree. …

The giant tank was home to the California Garden Centre cafe and shop before it was bought by Sir Peter Jackson and Dame Fran Walsh in 2017.

Long before that, when it was built in 1926, it was a petrol storage tank for British Imperial Oil – and is one of the few remaining storage tanks of this kind.

That makes it historically significant, according to the council.

The tank was “an increasingly rare representative example of bulk storage tanks erected nationally in the 1920s”, heritage evaluators wrote in their report.

So what is this piece of important heritage?

If the Council think this should be preserved as a heritage building, then I have a solution.

Let the Council buy it, and use it as office space for their heritage team!

1. Labour won the seat by a 16% margin in 2020
2. Labour lost the seat by a 16% margin in 2022
3. This is the first by-election since 1985 where National has won a seat off Labour
4. This is only the second by-election since 1946 where National has won a seat off Labour. In fact since National formed in 1936, it had previously only won seats off Labour in three out of 67 by-elections.
5. The provisional results are very close to the Taxpayers Union/TheWorking Group/Curia poll with the differences being just 0.4% for Potaka, 1.4% for McDowell and 2.5% for Dansey.
6. Turnout was very low at just over 14,000
7. The margin of around 2,300 on a turnout of 14,000 is around equal to a 6,500 margin in a general election

This post is for people to comment on Hamilton West results as they come through. I’ll embed my Twitter feed, as I’ll use that to highlight results.

One of the most meaningless stats around is the overall crime rate. Why it is almost meaningless? Because it treats all crimes as equal? 1,000 murders counts the same as 1,000 arrests for cannabis use.

It allows decreases in one category to mask increases in another category. And some categories are very dependent on how proactive Police are, especially arounds drugs, road safety etc. Others are dependent on how likely people are to notify Police (sexual offences)

So I have long articulated that the most useful area to look at is violent offending. Partly because it includes very serious offences, and partly because it is the most likely to be reported. And here is the data from Police.

Now two minor things to note. The 2022 data is for the nine months to September and multiplied by 12/9 to allow comparison. And I have not had time to adjust it for population growth, but doing so would not change the clear impact which is violent crime levels were stable from 2015 to 2017, and have increased almost 40% since then.

Brook Sabin writes:

I’m on the last flight out of Christchurch for the night, and Christopher Luxon is greeted like a long-lost friend by our Air New Zealand crew.

At that point, I take a quick look around the cabin. Some people are paying attention to the video, others aren’t. It’s a pretty typical scene on any flight.

However, I couldn’t help but notice Luxon’s head was down, scrolling on his phone. And it stayed down for almost all the safety video.

Now, paying limited attention to the safety video isn’t earth-shattering, and I’d be a hypocrite for saying so. I have done it on many occasions, and in fact, I wasn’t paying full attention by watching Luxon – which makes me just as bad.

I’ve also seen plenty of other passengers not paying full attention, including on one occasion, the Prime Minister. Back in 2019, in the lead-up to Waitangi Day, I was on a flight with Jacinda Ardern to Kerikeri and watched the Prime Minister talk to an adviser next to her as the flight attendant delivered a manual briefing (the smaller planes don’t have video screens). I was with my partner, and we were both a bit surprised by it at the time.

I’m not. It is almost unnatural to pay attention to something you have already heard 10, 20, 30, 50 times before – often just a day ago.

This is where Air NZ used to be a genius with their videos. They were so funny or interesting you would and could actually view them dozens of times, and even look forward to them. Sadly the latest ones are not in that category.

My general rule is I will listen to a new safety video (in case anything has changed) for the first four of five times, and then I won’t. By this stage I can recite it myself. The exception is if I am in the front row (which is often) as there you don’t get the video, but a flight attendant demonstrating. I regard it as rude to ignore them, so will look up from my Kindle for the briefing.

So I don’t regard Ardern and Luxon as not always listening as anything negative at all. They both fly 400+ times a year, and will know the contents by rote.

But what is fascinating is their reaction to the journalist asking them for comment:

It’s important to point out that I went to both Luxon and Ardern’s office to see if they wanted to respond. I got very different reactions.

Luxon offered a bit of a lighthearted mea culpa via statement:

“I know better than anyone how important it is to pay attention to airline safety videos – even if you’ve seen as many as I have and can recite every word of the All Blacks Men In Black safety song! This is a good reminder that I must do my best to always pay full attention.”

So Luxon isn’t defensive, is straight up.

I was later given the following response, to be attributed to a spokesperson:

“The Prime Minister routinely pays attention to safety briefings on planes.”

And Ardern’s response is the opposite – denial and spin.

It’s a trivial issue, but I thought the contrast in the responses was illuminating, and tells us a lot.

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To succeed in the role you’re…

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UPDATE: Two other roles also available:

• Graduate Researcher (Full Time): You’ll work with our Economist and researchers on research policy projects to support our work, including preparing briefing papers, parliamentary submissions, conducting literature reviews and drafting media release and blog posts. Your research will help to provide the substance to back our campaigns that drive improvements to public policy. 
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This is incredible. There are so many families in NZ struggling with housing, and we have a housing programme restricted to Wellington public servants earning up to $95,000 a year. 1,000 apartments have been put aside.

If you are a nurse working in a DHB, you can get an apartment, but a nurse working in a medical centre can’t.

If you do the accounts for a small government agency you can get an apartment, but if you do it for a charity, you can’t.

Wages in the public sector are 24% higher than the private sector, and we have a scheme reserved for public servants earning up to $95,000.

Could you imagine the outrage if this was the other way around. Think if the Government and Council funded a housing programme which was reserved for private sector staff only, and public servants were banned from accessing it?

Housing programmes should be based on need, not on if your employer is public or private sector.

I’m informed that this initiative was originally designed to help low to medium income workers who work in Wellington, live in Wellington. It was intended for baristas, hairdressers etc. There was no restrictions on it being for public sector only.

Then a Labour City Councillor got involved and insisted it be restricted to public sector staff only. And finally after years of pushing, they got their way and it mutated from a scheme to help all low and medium workers to only helping public sector staff earning up to $95,000 (or $150,000 for a couple).

But it gets even worse than that. The takeup for the scheme has been relatively low, because it is restricted to the public sector only, so the Council has declared there is now too much affordable housing, and has reneged on an initiative with a developer who signed up, and said developer is threatening to sue.

So rather than do what is eminently sensible and restore the scheme to its original purpose, and remove the ban on private sector low and medium income workers, the Council is saying that the lack of uptake shows, that there is too much affordable housing in Wellington!!!

Stuff reports:

Labour has been unwilling to detail how it made the “mistake” of voting for the clause, but Ardern has suggested Cabinet ministers and MPs were unaware of the exact contents of the Green Party supplementary order paper Labour voted for.

Luxon on Wednesday suggested in questions that Mahuta, the local government minister, had breached the Cabinet manual by supporting the entrenchment clause in a speech to the House, after Cabinet had previously resolved not to entrench in May.

“Why is she tolerated a minister going against the explicit instructions of her and her Cabinet?”

This is pretty amazing stuff. Cabinet resolved in May not to proceed with entrenchment, yet Mahuta worked with the Greens to support entrenchment, and took their proposal to caucus.

Any other Minister would be gone by now.

If Labour lose the next election, I wonder if Mahuta could replace Ardern as leader. She is obviously the most powerful Minister after Grant Robertson.

I will start by declaring a vested interest. One of my children is a professional fire fighter. As a degree qualified academic and top quality athlete I assumed that, when he declared his interest in FENZ, he would hose in through the application process. Not at all. It was very tough – especially at the interviews – and I am exceedingly proud that he applied five times and worked as an orderly at Auckland hospital for 2 – 3 years to prove that he was tough and dependable. One of my proudest days was being at his FENZ graduation in Rotorua where he had the privilege of speaking for the new Fire Fighters.

These people are very much quiet achievers in our country. You don’t need them until you NEED them. They are then there in spades. As well as their obvious work in attending fires and traffic accidents they are also the first attenders for heart attacks and do a broad range of education and fire prevention work. They thoroughly deserve the contract settlement they have just received.

These men and women do all of the stuff I would simply like to avoid. Climbing ridiculously high ladders, running towards a fire, risking explosions to get people out, crawling into dark and forbidding spaces, attending the carnage of traffic accidents, performing CPR on people who may not make it …

Well done FENZ – you thoroughly deserve the settlement.

They are also a part of an international brotherhood. I have had the privilege of visiting the 9/11 memorials in New York and at The Pentagon. The most moving speech I have ever watched is this one by Jon Stewart to Congress.

The BBC reports:

Iran’s morality police, which is tasked with enforcing the country’s Islamic dress code, is being disbanded, the country’s attorney general says. 

Mohammad Jafar Montazeri’s comments, yet to be confirmed by other agencies, were made at an event on Sunday. 

Iran has seen months of protests over the death of a young woman in custody.

Mahsa Amini had been detained by the morality police for allegedly breaking strict rules on head coverings.

Mr Montazeri was at a religious conference when he was asked if the morality police was being disbanded.

“The morality police had nothing to do with the judiciary and have been shut down from where they were set up,” he said.

Control of the force lies with the interior ministry and not with the judiciary. 

On Saturday, Mr Montazeri also told the Iranian parliament the law that requires women to wear hijabs would be looked at.

If correct, this is a slightly promising sign.

The November 2022 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

• Labour 25.5% (-3.5% from October)
• National 39.0% (+7.0%)
• Greens 12.0% (-3.5%)
• ACT 11.0% (-1.5%)
• Maori 4.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 3.5% (nc)
• TOP 2.5% (-0.5%)
• New Conservatives 0.5% (nc)

Seats

• Labour 34 (-31 from election)
• National 51 (+18)
• Greens 16 (+6)
• ACT 14 (+4)
• Maori 5 (+3)

Governments

• Labour/Green 50/120
• National/ACT 65/120

Direction

• Right 35.0% (-7.0%)
• Wrong 55% (+5.0%)

This is the third Roy Morgan poll to show Labour in the 20s, an extraordinary decline from the 50% they got at the election. They would lose a massive 31 MPs on this poll.