Competing photo ops

Claire Trevett writes:

As Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gazed around Shackleton’s hut in Antarctic on Thursday and reflected on Ernest Shackleton’s leadership style, she quipped: “I don’t think I can quite compare government with the hardship and endurance of Antarctic exploration. But some days …”

It was only half a joke.

On the same day Ardern was reflecting on her childhood hero, Shackleton, the man who poses the greatest risk to ending those days in government was reflecting on his own apparent childhood hero – Ronald McDonald.

National’s leader, Christopher Luxon, popped into the Merivale McDonald’s where he had worked at a school student.

After slapping mustard onto some buns and pouring a soft-serve, he waxed lyrical about the value of a first job at McDonalds and what it had taught him. …

None of this fazed National at all. The point of the Maccas visit was to highlight to people that Luxon came from humble-ish beginnings and worked his way up from when he was 15.

I think one of the best things you can do for kids is to have them do part-time work while at school. It teaches the value of work, thrift and saving. While at intermediate school I did a paper run (sometimes three), and then at age 14 worked nights and Saturday mornings at Woolworths.

The Luxon photo op, to me, worked well as that reminder of him coming from relatively humble beginnings, and it contrasted well with Ardern being in Antarctica (which I have no problem with, but the timing during a cost of living crisis is unfortunate).

Labour Light Rail vs the Space Race

A great graphic showing how terrible Labour are at delivering. My only criticism is that it is too generous to Labour as I would say there is a 0.001% chance construction on Auckland Light Rail would begin in 2026.

General Debate 02 November 2022

Three shortlisted for Hamilton West

National announced:

On Sunday, local National Party members will select a candidate from the following shortlist:

Rachel Afeaki-Taumoepeau Frances Hughes Tama Potaka

This will be a damn hard choice, from three great candidates.

Rachel is one of the leading Pacific businesswomen in New Zealand having chaired the NZ Tonga Business Council and taken up governance roles with many businesses and organisations.

Frances is globally recognised as a leader in health. She has been the CEO of the International Nursing Council and is the current  Group General Manager Clinical and Care services for a major healthcare provider.

Tama is the CEO of an Iwi, has been an investment advisor at the NZ Super Fund and the former head of corporate services for Tainui.

I don’t know who will win, but I hope the two who don’t make it look at other seats, and/or the party list.

214 people got to choose their ending

Stuff reports:

Nearly 600​ people have applied to access assisted dying since it was made legal in New Zealand late last year, and 214​ have been assisted to die.

Dying is sad, but I am very pleased that we now allow those with a terminal illness who are suffering to choose to end things on their terms.

Auckland and Christchurch propose a sensible Three Waters model

Stuff reports:

Auckland’s mayor Wayne Brown has teamed up with his Christchurch counterpart to try to launch a new version of the Government’s proposed Three Waters reforms.

Brown and Christchurch’s Phil Mauger have gained the backing of Waimakariri mayor Dan Gordon, and are seeking further support for how local body water supply operations should be reformed.

A key feature of their plan for Regional Water Organisations (RWO) is that they would be owned and governed by the participating councils, and not by a co-governance body, as in the Government plan.

The new plan would allow regions to decide how big their new entities would be, rather than the four regional entities proposed nationwide.

This is similar to what I have mooted:

  • Regulator sets standards for water companies
  • Councils decide between themselves the boundaries for each (possibly the Govt could set a minimum population size of say 500,000)
  • Councils own (not fake own) and appoint boards of water companies

“The new proposal would maintain crucial aspects of central government’s existing plan, including the new water regulator, Taumata Arowai, while maintaining local ownership, control and accountability and allowing for meaningful roles for mana whenua,” the two mayors said in a statement.

A meaningful role is good. Control is not good. Control must be through democratic accountability.

General Debate 01 November 2022

David MacLeod for New Plymouth

National announced:

David MacLeod (Ngāti Mutunga, Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Porou) has been selected by local party members as National’s New Plymouth candidate for the 2023 General Election.

Mr MacLeod owns and runs Linepower, a Taranaki electricity network maintenance business. He served on the Taranaki Regional Council, including as Chair since 2007, until stepping down at this year’s local elections.

So he is a small business owner and has a successful electoral record in Taranaki, having won eight elections. He’s also been a director of Fonterra and Port Taranaki and was appointed by the current Minister of Conservation to chair Predator Free NZ earlier this year.

He is an incredibly substantive candidate.

Things I would like banned/cancelled.

Please feel free to chip in. Would love your ideas.

With a change of government looking increasing likely the Labour/Green government is really starting to ramp up their cancel list.

Latest manifestations of such.

a) Significant achievement for low decile, Maori and Pasifika students has been banned. This has been demonstrated by the huge slump in NCEA/UE statistics in he last three years, completely ineffectively policies to have more than 22% of decile 1 students fully attending, teaching and learning programmes that see decile 1 students passing basic writing tests at 2%.

b) Regulating alcohol (not entirely bad) while wanting free-play on other drugs.

c) Free and robust speech.

I am sure there is more to come so I thought I would create my top ten list (respect to Letterman).

10. Across the world golfers with handicaps less that 24 should be banned from all pro tournaments. Weekend hackers, like me, need their chance, and experts like Ryan Fox have had the opportunity of hitting many more golf balls in practice and that isn’t fair. He has been far too dedicated.

9. Pedestrian crossings must go. As far as I know there are no road user charges for pedestrians. They are effectively trespassing. We could hugely reduce congestion in our cities by insisting pedestrians simply have to take their chances (and improve their fitness and skills sets). There could be flow on positives from this – e.g. less need for retirement saving, housing….

8. The Daily Blog must go. I go there once a day and read what Bomber Bradbury (and others) have to say. At times it is appalling – he is arguing for robust debate, he is challenging the woke orthodoxy, he even makes occasional economic sense and insists people should be talking. Appalling.

7. Similarly Chris Trotter. What on earth is he doing? He holds traditional Labour values and clearly cares for the needy. And yet he believes deeply in free speech and the qualities this should bring to a 2022 society. Weird. A one way ticket to Ukraine (with a sawn off spud-gun) needed.

6. The “River of Filth”. Sure anyone, even tangentially connected to the Wellington protests, need to know that they should purchase cheap rubber boats and paddle for South America. When someone like the highly esteemed Michael Wood (Minister of Potholes and Ridiculous Train Transport), who publicly declares his Christian faith calls you “filth” it must be clear that he has adjudicated that even Jesus would not stand up for you. Time to paddle.

5. Any political party who lack so much creativity that they can only call themselves after a colour. The Greens have to go. The precedent has too much risk. A Purple party for re-incarnated royalty? An Orange party for Dutch immigrants? A Red party for people with orange hair? A Yellow party for nervous people? There is no end to this. It must be cancelled.

4. Fitness and exercise must be removed from society in all ways. It those trends deeply caught on they would render much of the health system as superfluous. Also, if you are overweight (as I currently am) it is simply embarrassing that other people have not been so slovenly. Shame on them. Cancelled or shot – not sure which.

3. Reading and other broad intellectual pursuits need to be removed from society – along with any form of critical thinking and the probing asking of questions (such should be criminal for media -if it isn’t already). There is no way in the world our coming generations should be able to think for themselves – bowing at the “podium of truth” is an exemplary practice. Can you imagine how awful it would be for one of our “investigative journalists” or “explainers” to ask a politician or a bureaucrat for a “reference”? I always ask Year 7 – 10 children for references but it would be appalling to ask privileged/resources adults for the same.

2. All satirists and comedians MUST be banned and their legacy performances removed. My list so far is – Dave Chappell, Norm MacDonald, Ricky Gervais, John Clarke, Stephen Fry, John Gadsby & David McPhail, Bill Burr, Mike King, Robin Williams, Joe Rogan, Billy T. James. They are often “inappropriate” and that is enough for me. Norm MacDonald even lampooned teachers – “how dare he??!!”

1. Government must go. The very great Douglas Adams summed it up so superbly.

“The major problem—one of the major problems, for there are several—one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.

To summarize: it is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it.
To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.”

(Darn it – I forget to add in EV’s, hybrids, cubes, and anything that takes an hour to get to 100km, chews up heavy metals, and requires massive amounts of coal fire electricity.)

Govt should fund Stats NZ more

Stuff reports:

Stats NZ says it doesn’t have the funding or resources to provide monthly inflation figures, after the Reserve Bank and a top accounting body said more frequent reporting could help ensure interest rates were set at the right level.

Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand (Caanz) said the Reserve Bank would be less likely to make a mistake by setting interest rates higher or lower than was necessary if it had more regular information on how inflation was tracking.

In this era of high inflation, we should be reporting more frequently than quarterly.

Vial said there could be a lag of up to about five months between a swing in inflation occurring and the Reserve Bank resetting interest rates after that was picked up in Stats NZ’s quarterly statistics.

That lag would be greatest if the swing began at the start of a quarter and there was long gap between Stats NZ reporting it and the Reserve Bank’s next scheduled OCR review.

The Government could stop wasting money in other areas and give some more money to Stats NZ so we get monthly inflation stats.

Campbell for Ilam

The Herald reports:

National has announced its candidate to compete in Christchurch’s Ilam electorate as it seeks to win back the previously long-held blue seat it lost in the red tidal wave of 2020.

Dr Hamish Campbell, a medical researcher, was selected today by local party delegates from a shortlist of five contenders.

The Ilam electorate was established in 1996 and held by National MP Gerry Brownlee until the 2020 election when he lost to Labour’s Sarah Pallett.

Brownlee announced in August he would go list only at the 2023 election, giving a strong indication he wants to be Speaker should National win in 2023.

Given that history of support for National in the electorate, it was a popular choice for candidates, and Campbell was up against James Christmas, Dale Stephens, Tracy Summerfield and Vanessa Weenink.

That is a great line up of candidates, and it says much about Hamish that he managed to win the nomination in such a quality field.

I know Hamish and he will be a great MP, if he wins Ilam (which is likely).

He has a PhD in molecular biology and has been the deputy head of research for Multiple Sclerosis Australia.

General Debate 31 October 2022

Govt confirms it will change law to criminalise more speech

The Herald reports:

After years of debate over whether New Zealand should have a law more explicitly banning hate speech, the Government is on the verge of announcing legislation.

That’s a “promise”, according to Justice Minister Kiri Allan, who also told TVNZ’s Q+A today that she is taking a hard look at New Zealand’s often-criticised name suppression laws.

“I will be making announcements on hate speech by the end of this year,” the MP said as she briefly addressed the issue during her first appearance on the current affairs programme since taking over the justice portfolio in June.

“I guarantee that I’ll be introducing a law that I intend to have concluded and put into law by the next election.”

So there we have it. The Government will change the law next year to criminalise more speech.

If implemented, I have no doubt that it will be used to report numerous people on the center right to the Police on the grounds that their views on race or gender constitutes hate speech. They already try to get people banned from campuses for having non-woke views and sacked by employers, and now they will have an extra weapon with the Police.

To fight against this, join the Free Speech Union today. It is the only trade union in NZ that defends free speech, and it will lead the fight against the so called hate speech law.

Coal does more radiation than nuclear

Science Focus reports:

Do coal-fired power stations produce radioactive waste?

Yes – and the waste contributes far more radiation to the environment than nuclear power stations. The radioactivity comes from the trace amounts of uranium and thorium contained in coal. These elements have been trapped in the Earth’s crust since its formation and are usually in concentrations too low to pose any serious threat. But the burning of coal produces fly ash, a material in which the uranium and thorium are much more concentrated.

The exact amounts depend on the source of the coal, but are usually in the range of a few parts per million. That might not sound a lot until you realise that a typical gigawatt-capacity coal power station burns several million tonnes of coal per year. That means every such station creates fly ash containing around 5-10 tonnes of uranium and thorium each year. Multiply that by the number of such stations worldwide and the total amount of radioactive waste produced is truly astonishing.

According to estimates by the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the world’s coal-fired power stations currently generate waste containing around 5,000 tonnes of uranium and 15,000 tonnes of thorium. Collectively, that’s over 100 times more radiation dumped into the environment than that released by nuclear power stations.

True environmentalists would be embracing nuclear power.

Anne Frank’s friend dies

Hannah Pick-Goslar has died aged 93.

Why this is noticeable is she was a close friend of Anne Frank. The Holocaust seems so very distant, but it is a reminder we still have survivors with us.

Her death made me reflect how Anne may have lived another 80 years if she had survived the Holocaust.

General Debate 30 October 2022

A terrible attack

AP reports:

The husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked and severely beaten with a hammer by an assailant who broke into the couple’s San Francisco home early Friday, searching for the Democratic leader and shouting, “Where is Nancy, where is Nancy?”

The assault on the 82-year-old Paul Pelosi injected new uneasiness into the nation’s already toxic political climate, just 11 days before the midterm elections.

Attacks on politicians are bad enough, but attacking the 82 year old spouse of a politician in a home invasion is terrifying and chilling,

Silly to pull Ye’s music

Stuff reports:

A number of New Zealand radio stations have pulled all music by the artist formerly known as Kanye West from rotation, amid recent controversy surrounding the rapper.

But one national network says it has not received any negative feedback about continuing to play a “limited number” of Ye’s songs.

I’m all for companies ceasing active sponsorships etc with Ye for his repeated anti-semitic statements. In fact Adidas took far too long to act.

But that is different from saying his music should be locked up, and never played again. One can enjoy the art while thinking the artist is a douche.

NZ’s One Trick Pony Economic Management will not clear the hurdle without huge pain.

My first degree was economics and I maintain a keen interest.

If you look back at the major disruptions to the world economy – The Great Depression, the stagflation of the 1970s, the 1987 share market crash, the GFC – the commentators/politicians/banks of the day got the diagnosis/solutions wrong in the moment. They then learned the lessons in hindsight – figured out what would have worked in a particular situation – and applied that solution, without nuance, to the next crash. The great movie The Big Short illustrates this superbly.

Milton Friedman’s “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” still has significant validity in that if a nation increases the money supply (which Labour has done willy-nilly) without increasing production the prices can only go one way – and rapidly. NZ’s one trick is the Reserve Back increasing the Official Cash Rate.

I believe this inflation is significantly more supply-side weighted and needs appropriate solutions. Just hoping in the RBNZ interest rates hikes is exactly the wrong approach. It is hitting the wrong curve. It may eventually work but, like the last time NZ brought inflation down, the cost to employment and business could be massive.

Businesses are facing interest rate increases and business owners who are also home owners get hit hard at each OCR jump. They are also facing wage increases, compliance increases (especially farming), energy cost increases (including effectively having a fine for importing suitable work vehicles). Add to that the complexity and time taken for building and change of use consents. The NZ qualifications system (and NZ education is in DEEP trouble) is creating a skills shortage and Minister Hipkins has done nothing to improve it. I am not sure where his head is but it is somewhere worse than in the sand. We also have a record number of NEETs (Not in Employment, Education or Training) with no effort being made to get them off the couch.  The current Auckland NEET rate is the highest since 2010. In the year to December 2021 12.4% of Auckland 15-24yos were Not in Employment, Education or Training (nationally 11.9%). In 2015 this figure was 9.8%. These people don’t count in the Household Labour Force unemployment statistics as they are not willing to work.

Hoping in immigration is likely to be forlorn for the skills shortage as every Western nation is seeking solutions through immigration and NZ is unlikely to win that fight without a change in approach. Our government’s handling of the economy, health and education as well as Ardern’s ridiculous UN speech has significantly damaged NZ’s reputation and many kiwis will look abroad for work and lifestyle reasons.

The government needs to look at reigning in their spending. Robertson loves to say they are “investing” in education, health, etc. Investment implies an improvement and there is little or no signs of that. Adding approximately 1200 employees to the Ministry of Education has certainly not worked and we now have over 8,000 children not enrolled anywhere. The Ministry is also taking an incredible amount of time to release Term 2 school attendance figures.

The tax take is huge. It is time to consider taking GST down to 10%. It is a highly regressive tax and doing so with help both business and very much help lower and/or fixed income people. The income tax brackets have long needed adjusting but greedy Grant will have none of it.

Other policies/changes are needed to improve energy supply to lower costs, get NEETs off the couch, transform immigration quickly and provide incentives for highly skilled individuals in sectors where we are lacking. Our productivity statistics are highly problematic but is barely addressed. Compliance costs need to come down and planning permissions need to be sped up. Farming needs to be far better supported. R&D needs to more highly incentivised. The education system needs massive change and improvement.

I hope I am wrong – but if the above is mostly true – and the one trick approach remains, the interest rate changes could cause carnage for everyone but the banks.

A good start

Stuff reports:

In his inauguration speech on Friday night, Auckland’s new mayor Wayne Brown said a “fiscal storm” coming Aucklanders’ way has begun, and he used it as a scene-setter for unprecedented restructuring at Auckland Council.

Brown is eyeing up to $25 million in cuts to head office spending.

That would be a good start.

He said the same approach needed to be taken to every part of the council, its agencies and the port company.

“We need to apply the test: ‘Less is more’ – and ask ourselves, about every activity and line of expenditure: ‘If we stop doing this, would anyone notice?’

If only we could get that philosophy into central Government.

General Debate 29 October 2022

US Senate neck and neck

There seems little doubt the GOP will win back the House. But the Senate is looking to be a thriller.

The Democrats should have been facing wipeout here as they are defending so many seats in states Biden lost. But the GOP selected some pretty bad candidates. So the Dems in June were at just 40% to keep control. Then the Dobbs decision, some wins for Biden and bad candidates for the GOP saw their chances at 538 increased to 70% in mid September. But the last month has seen it drop day after day and now they are at 52% – neck and neck.

The four key seats are Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. The GOP need to win 2 to get the majority.

Georgia should have been an easy win but the GOP candidate has paid for more abortions than is healthy for an anti-abortion candidates. However he is now 0.2% ahead.

In Nevada the poll average is tied at 48.1% each. However momentum appears to be with GOP’s Laxalt.

Arizona should also have been an easy win for the GOP but Blake Masters has not appealed to many and trails be 3% 0 within the margin of error.

Most interesting is the one GOP held seat of Pennsylvania. This should not be competitive but again the GOP candidate Dr Oz was a bad pick, seen as a New Jersey carpetbagger. However the Democratic candidate John Fetterman had a terrible debate which shows he should not be a candidate after he had a stroke, and even though he has a 1.3% lead, many expect him to lose.

All four seats could go either way so could have 51 seats Democrats if they win all four to 53 seats Republicans if they win them all.

Willie is right

Newshub reports:

A 57-year-old woman has been arrested over wilful damage at Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Mt Albert electorate office earlier on Thursday. Ardern’s office was left with a shattered window and what appears to be a samurai sword was lying nearby.

A spokesperson for the Prime Minister said no one was at the building at the time. She had no further information to provide.

Jackson said on a Facebook post, the woman argues she had “long-standing grievances” with the Prime Minister.

“That doesn’t justify symbolic destruction and smoke bombing her electorate office,” he said.

“There has been a violent change of political debate in this country that has gone from the normal and vigorous disagreement a democracy requires to unhinged conspiracy theories which justify political violence.

“Attacking the PM’s office with a sword and smoke bombing it are not legitimate responses in a democracy, they are the unacceptable actions of a fragment of society who have ended up believing conspiracy theories that are deeply harmful.”

Not only are they not legitimate responses, they are deeply criminal responses. If found guilty, a short prison sentence as a deterrence would be appropriate.

Why not build the new huts first?

One News reports:

Furore has erupted near the remote, rugged country of Te Urewera, where work is now underway to strip, dismantle and burn down backcountry Department of Conservation huts.

At least 15 are gone and another 33 are set to be removed by December, set to be replaced with a “new kind of visitor experience”.

Hikers and hunters claim they have been dismissed, without any consultation, details or timeframes. …

Exactly what will be built to replace the huts, and when, remains unclear.

A post on a Facebook page run by Ngāi Tūhoe this month suggested new accommodation could be built in “2 to 3 years” but said “things like pandemics, wars and inflation make you shy to commit to timeframes”.

“Your association to these places are acknowledged and respected, but that enjoyment has often come as a cost to others,” it said

Surely the sensible thing to do is build the new huts first and then demolish the old ones?

Local government review recommends ending equality of suffrage

The Government appointed review of local government has come up with stuff which seems mainly about making local government less democratic. Their recommendations include:

  • mana whenua appointments to Councils to “supplement” elected members
  • Pay rises for Councillors
  • Forcing STV on all Councils even where residents have overwhelmingly voted against it

Make no mistake – this is about ending equality of suffrage in New Zealand. They even denounce the concept of one person, one vote as reported in the Herald:

Panel chairman Jim Palmer said while Māori wards were valuable, mana whenua appointees were a recognition of the special place in New Zealand of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which allowed for the greater involvement of iwi and hapū in local decision-making.

“We think it’s a more nuanced conversation than just ‘one person, one vote’,” Palmer said.

One person, one vote, is equality of suffrage. It is a fundamental human right enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We should no more have a conversation around ending it, than we should have a conversation about whether women should have the vote.