A very good article by Eli Lake about the situation in Ukraine, and what it means for both Russia and China. Some extracts:
Whatever the outcome of the war for Ukraine, we are living in a different world now. In the new world, Putin’s Russia is not a part of the community of nations. It is a threat to the community of nations. Consequently, the international system created after World War II must be revised. The free world is again engaged in a cold war with a country whose capital is Moscow.
Agree. Even if there is a peace deal in Ukraine, there can be no returning back to “normal”.
But they also should be the first steps in a break with the autocratic world.
Such a break will require a commitment to isolate Russia in the near term, and, over time, China, from the international system and global economy; deter future aggression with a credible threat of military force; and nurture freedom movements in the autocratic world with a long-term goal of democratic change. It requires a combination of strategic separation, national resilience, and international solidarity.
A bold and laudable vision.
China and Russia share a common interest in thwarting the U.S.-led international order. Neither country wants to live in a world where the sovereignty of weaker and smaller nations is inviolable. Neither country wants to play by common rules of trade, banking, and international finance. Neither country wants to respect the freedom of its citizens. And both countries need an enemy to justify their autocratic rule.
For now, the priority must be stopping Russia. But the West must prepare to make a break with China as well.
Sadly I think he is right. China had great potential as it liberalised both the economy and its society. But it has done a u-turn and is becoming more autocratic, more threatening and more dangerous.
Since the end of the Cold War, American and Western strategy has sought to tame China and Russia through inclusion in the international system. If we could entice China and Russia, so the theory went, to cooperate when it came to threats to the global commons and induce them to join international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, both nations would be obliged to play by the same rules that restrain democracies. And if over time the West traded with Russia and China to make their countries more prosperous, then a middle class would emerge demanding more freedoms at home.
This strategy has failed. Chinese and Russian elites grew fabulously wealthy and used their wealth to corrupt Western democracies. America and Europe grew dependent on Chinese manufacturing and investment and on Russian energy and natural resources. All the while, both countries have eroded the international institutions the West had hoped would constrain them.
I was a huge supporter of the strategy. I was wrong. It has failed. We should start to move with speed to delink our economy from China, so that when it does move on Taiwan, we are not compromised.
It’s time to stop pretending that it is a font of international law when a country like Russia remains a veto-wielding permanent member. With that in mind, Western diplomats should explore the prospect of demoting Russia’s status on the grounds that there was no General Assembly vote for Russia to join the UN after the collapse of the Soviet Union. If that doesn’t work, America and its allies should issue an ultimatum: It’s us or Russia. If the UN cannot or will not demote Russia’s status, then the West should undertake to build an alternative to the United Nations that excludes Russia and eventually China.
A successor to the UN would have many long-term advantages for the free world. It could introduce clarifying standards for states to enjoy a kind of first-class global citizenship. Countries that launch aggressive wars, violate nonproliferation agreements, or extinguish internal political opposition would be ejected. Their seats would go to free governments in exile. So Belarus, for example, would be represented by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the school teacher who won her country’s 2020 election.
Yes, this is what we want. A league of democracies. You need to meet high standards to join, but get great benefits if you do so. Let the UN become an irrelevant talkfest.
We need to separate ourselves from Russia and China economically, to the extent possible. This has already begun to happen with Russia and to a degree with China. But the free world must do more. This means removing restrictions on fracking and fossil-fuel exploration in the U.S. and Europe and revitalizing the nuclear-power industry on both sides of the Atlantic. French president Emanuel Macron has already started this process. Germany should follow his lead. Europe and America should also support Israel’s natural-gas pipeline to the continent. None of this should preclude efforts to find sources of alternative green energy. But until wind and solar can power nation-states, the West has to focus on freeing itself from Russian energy by producing its own.
Nuclear power is probably the quickest and most effective way to remove the reliance on Russian gas and oil.
The most potent advantage the West has over autocracies is that the free world is a magnet for genius fleeing tyranny. This human capital has been an engine of American ingenuity and creativity since its founding. In this respect, it is not enough to quarantine Russia and China. America should also welcome their dissidents, artists, engineers, doctors, lawyers, poets, and scientists—and offer them a better life in the United States rather than sending them home to use our knowhow to their native advantage. Over time, this brain drain will weaken China’s and Russia’s ability to keep pace with Western innovation.
Absolutely.
