NewstalkZB reports:

Ultra-conservative MP leaps from window as Belgian police raid lockdown-breaching orgy

A Hungarian European Parliament lawmaker on Tuesday local time admitted he was present at an illegal party broken up by Belgian police in central Brussels last week, following reports he took part in a COVID-19 lockdown sex orgy.

This is the good thing about not being ultra-conservative. If you are in an orgy, you don’t need to jump out the window if the police raid it.

The media are running countless stories on the push to take away from the public the right to decide if their Council should or should not have Maori wards.

The latest is at Stuff which quotes five different people who all believe the public should have no say on whether a Council has Maori wards or not, and not a single voice with an opposing view. Yep five advocates interviewed, and no one else.

Buit what is worse is that there seems to be no one in the media who will call bullshit on the claim put forward by proponents that it is racist to allow a referendum on Maori wards because there is no provision to do so for general or geographic wards.

Almost every country on earth has geographic wards or seats for their national, state and/or local government. A decision on whether to have say five or six geographic wards for a council is generally an administrative decision. Geographic seats or wards have existed for around 755 years and again are a routine or standard feature of democratic institutions in almost every country on earth.

Whether or not to have race based seats or Maori wards is fundamentally different. Having seats reserved for people of one race, is incredibly uncommon in the world. No other developed country or OECD member does it.

Fiji used to do it. Only eight other countries (including Jordan, India, Colombia, Croatia) have race based seats at the parliamentary level, and I suspect even fewer at the local government level.

Deciding that a local council should have a Maori ward is a major political decision. It fundamentally changes the nature of representation in a council as it means some councillors will represent people of one ethnicity only, rather than everyone in a geographic district. Reasonable people can disagree on whether or not they are a good idea.

But to claim that race based seats are no different to geographic seats and hence the public should have no say on them is elitist nonsense. It would be like arguing that deciding whether or not to change electoral systems should be a decision left purely to MPs

They are trying to do away with voters having a say, because they think the voters have made the wrong decision. They hate the fact the public disagree with them on what is a controversial political issue. So their solution is to ban the public from deciding.

It is elitism at its worse. The public vote the wrong way, so we must take the vote away from them.

The table above shows how many members each party has on the various select committees and other committees.

Labour has a majority on 8 of the 15 committees. On a further five it comprises half the committee so can block any business it doesn’t like. On two committees (Petitions and Regulations Review) it does not have a majority.

National has two or three MPs on each committee. The ones with three are Finance, Health and Justice which might indicate areas of focus.

The Greens have chosen (as they don’t qualify for all) to not be on Economic Development, Governance, Justice and Primary Production – none of which are core areas for them, so quite sensible.

ACT have chosen not to go on Economic Development, Foreign Affairs, Governance and Maori Affairs – also pretty sensible.

The Maori Party has chosen to go on the Environment and Maori Affairs committees.

A must watch speech from the guy in charge of election systems for the state of Georgia talking about the death threats that his staff and others have had to endure.

Incidentally Gabriel Sterling is a Republican, not that this should matter.

This is what happens when you lie and claim the election was stolen because your ego is so fragile you can’t accept you lost. Some people believe you, and they honestly think there are people out there deleting votes and are threatening to kill them.

Stuff reported earlier this year:

In the early months of 2007, the Government made a bold commitment: The public service would be going carbon neutral.

13 years later they have reannounced this policy as a sign they believe climate change is abn emergency!!

It’s beyond farcical.

In the grand scheme of New Zealand’s climate pollution, it was a small fraction of the problem – equivalent to around 0.2 per cent of annual emissions.

And the policy will reduce annual emissions by 0.2%. That 0.2% of 0.1% global emissions so 0.0002% of global emissions.

We’re saved!

The Herald reported:

Festival hosts will be able to have drug-checking services at their events this summer and neither of them will face prosecution.

Health Minister Andrew Little revealed this morning that the Government will pass an urgent law to provide legal breathing space for drug-checking in time for the summer festival season.

I’m all in favour of this. It is a fact of life a significant number of people at music festivals will have party pills or other drugs. Would be better if they didn’t, but we live in the real world not an imaginary one.

The problem is sometimes what they think they have been sold isn’t what is claimed, and it can kill. There have been quite a few deaths from synthetic drugs.

So allowing a festival to provide a service for people to test if the drugs they have won’t kill them is laudable. Death should never be the price someone pays for wanting to pop some party pills at a music festival.

The Herald reports:

Labour list MP Naisi Chen, the second youngest MP at 26, came to New Zealand from Beijing, China, when she was 5. Her father had arrived two years earlier with $200 in his pocket. …

She said she only ever wanted to be a housewife, and was shoulder-tapped into politics at her high school Chinese committee, then with the NZ Chinese Students’ Association as president, where she realised most Chinese students never integrated.

“They come to New Zealand but still hang out in their own groups, seeking employment from Chinese businesses which, I soon realised. reflected the wider Chinese community.

“I believe that every migrant needs to integrate into New Zealand by adopting Kiwi values. We shouldn’t ever condone racism, but instead, be able to let each culture adapt to New Zealand so that it becomes a uniquely Kiwi-Chinese Kiwi-Korean Kiwi-Muslim culture.

“The harmonisation of New Zealand values and cultural heritage, that’s what I see as the biggest challenge in our society during the years I will serve in this house.”

Wise words from Naisi Chen. I am a huge fan of immigration and I don’t care about which country they’re from or their ethnicity. But I do care about integrating into New Zealand, especially the second generation.

Stuff reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will declare a climate change emergency in Parliament today, promising a carbon-neutral Government by 2025.

A carbon-neutral Government by 2025. Three years ago they promised a far more modest carbon-neutral Government vehicle fleet by 2025. After three years they are at 0.9% acheieved.

So having managed 0.9% in three years just on government vehicle emissions, they expect people to believe they will totally eliminate or offset all government emissions within five years.

I guess you can fool some of the people all of the time.

If you multiply a candidate’s vote share with the turnout, then you get what share of the overall adult population voted for a candidate. This can tell us a lot about how widespread their appeal was, and their ability to motivate people to vote for them.

Trump may have lost to Biden but he got a greater share of the population voting for him than any other candidate since 1972. Even more than Reagan in his landslide of 1984.

Here’s the share of the overall adult population candidates have got since 1968.

1. Biden 20: 34.2%
2. Nixon 72 33.5%
3. Trump 20: 31.6%
4. Reagan 84: 31.3%
5. Obama 08: 30.8%
6. Bush 04: 28.7%
7. Obama 12: 28.1%
8. Kerry 04: 27.4%
9. Clinton 16: 26.8%
10. Bush 88: 26.8%
11. Carter 76: 26.8%
12. Reagan 80: 26.7%
13. McCain 08: 26.6%
14. Nixon 68: 26.4%
15. Humphrey 68: 26.0%
16. Romney 12: 25.9%
17. Ford 76: 25.7%
18. Trump 16: 25.7%
19. Gore 00: 24.8%
20. Bush 00: 24.5%
21. Clinton 96: 24.1%
22. Clinton 92: 23.7%
23. Dukakis 88: 22.9%
24. Mondale 84: 21.6%
25. Carter 80: 21.6%
26. McGovern 72: 20.7%
27. Bush 92: 20.6%
28. Dole 96: 19.9%

So in 2016 only 25.7% of adult Americans voted for Donald Trump and in 2020 it rose to 31.6%. Again that is astonishing.

Of course in 2016 Clinton got 26.8% of Americans voting for her and Biden in 2020 got a modern record of 34.2%.

It will be fascinating to see in 2024 if voting turnout stays so high. I imagine that will depend on who is standing!

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern paid personal tribute to former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters tonight at a function at Parliament, saying he had been by her side during tough times.

No surprise she would be appreciative of the man who made her Prime Minister in 2017.

She also said she respected Peters for his policy of preventing political appointments in diplomatic posts – with the exception of former Labour deputy leader Dame Annette King who is High Commissioner to Australia.

Hopefully this means he won’t be taking one up himself, as that would be the height of hypocrisy.

The Herald reports:

On June 19 Matthew Hunt was meant to have dinner with his mother Diane after work.

But he never made it.

Several hours after he put on his beloved blue uniform, Constable Matthew Hunt was dead – gunned down in an Auckland street while attending a routine traffic stop.

Tomorrow his mother will present a petition to Parliament in his name and honour, calling for changes to the Sentencing Act 2002 and the Parole Act 2002 that would see anyone convicted of murdering a police officer receive a mandatory life sentence and have their parole eligibility automatically declined. …

Diane Hunt launched a petition on July 30 – the day her son would have turned 29.

“I want no parole for the killers of police officers in New Zealand – a murder sentence here can mean about 10 years in jail and I don’t believe that’s an appropriate sentence for the murder of a public servant doing their job,” she said.

“First responders have this on their shoulders every day they go to work, they all need to get home. …

In Victoria, Australia the law was changed in 2016 to ban parole for police murderers.

In New South Wales cop killers are sentenced to imprisonment for “the term of the person’s natural life”.

Diane Hunt wants the New Zealand Government to do the same.

I was unaware that Victoria and NSW have done this. It would be interesting to ascertain if there have been any killings of police officers since they changed the law.

Jacinda Ardern is moving a motion today in the House declaring climate change an emergency. It is more of the usual empty gesture to show one cares about an issue, as a substitute for actually doing something that would reduce emissions (which requires actual policy decisions with painful tradeoffs that might be unpopular).

Here’s Labour’s record to date:

• Promised 100% renewable electricity by 2030. In fact renewable share has dropped from 83.4% in Sep 2017 to 82.2% in Jun 2020.
• Promised to complete light rail (hence reducing traffic emissions to Mt Roskill by 2021. Nothing has occurred except the Auditor-General slamming the process.
• Promised the entire Government fleet would be electric or emissions free by 2025. As at Sep 2020, had managed just 0.9%
• Promised to fund one billion trees, to reduce net emissions. After three years have funded just 3.7% of the one billion trees.
• Promised to reduce net emissions to zero by 2050. However they are projecting an increase in net emissions from 55,000 to 70,000 kt from 2017 to 2023.

So rather than actually implement any of their promises that would reduce emissions, they are now passing a motion declaring it is an emergency.

They may even announce some new policy today, but as we know they are very good at announcing things and very bad at implementing them.

The turnout in the 2020 presidential election is around 157 million, compared to around 137 million in 2016. Turnout went from 56% to over 67%.

Donald Trump had 11 million more people vote for him in 2020 than in 2016. That is quite an extraordinary achievement. But Biden had 14 million more people vote for him than voted for Clinton in 2016.

If Trump had got his 2020 vote in 2016, he would have won 342 to 196. He would have picked up Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Conversely if Trump had not grown his vote by 11 million, then Biden would have beaten him by 394 to 144. Biden would have also won Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Utah.

So it is a real lesson about the power of turnout. There were not a lot of swinging or undecided voters. It came down a lot to turnout.

Interesting vote splitting stats just published. The summary below is for people who party voted for a party, what they did with their candidate vote.

• ACT – 65% voted Nat cands, 21% ACT cands
• Greens – 57% voted Labour cands, 29% Green cands
• Labour – 78% voted Labour cands, 8% National cands
• National – 88% voted National cands, 4% ACT cands
• New Conservatives – 64% New Cons cands, 25% Nat cands
• NZ First – 37% Lab cands, 22% Nat cands, 18% NZF cands
• TOP – 35% Lab cands, 21% TOP cands 18% Nat cands,

National voters did the least vote splitting.

Newshub reports:

A man has been shot twice by police in Northland after a police dog was left with a gunshot wound to the head, according to a report.

The small township of Tangowahine, between Whangarei and Dargaville, is in the process of being shut down as police swarm the area to offer assistance to the officers, the NZ Herald reports.

It’s understood the police dog is being rushed to a vet clinic in Dargaville to receive treatment.

Hopefully the police dog survives.

Turnout in 2017 was 79% and in 2020 hit 82.2% – the highest since 1999. Turnout has been:

• 2002: 77.0%
• 2005: 80.9%
• 2008: 79.5%
• 2011: 74.2%
• 2014: 77.9%
• 2017: 79.8%
• 2020: 82.2%

Pretty good to have had it increase the last three elections.

A lot of variation by electorate. The top 5 are:

1. Wgtn Central 89.4%
2. Selwyn 89.4%
3. Banks Peninsula 89.1%
4. Waitaki 88.2%
5. Ohariu 87.7%

The bottom ones are:

• Tamaki Makaurau 65.1%
• Ikaroa-Rawhiti 67.1%
• Panmure-Otahuhu 67.6%

So gear some electorates have almost 90% turnout but a lot still below 75% also.

Radio NZ reports:

The Child Poverty Action Group’s stocktake of progress on the Welfare Expert Advisory Group’s (WEAG) 42 key recommendations has found none of them have been fully implemented.

It’s good to see the Government making just as much progress on child poverty as they are on housing, light rail and climate change!

The Herald reports:

A Rotorua-based helicopter company that rescued survivors off Whakaari/White Island when emergency services were instructed not to respond has confirmed it is one of the parties that has been charged by WorkSafe.

First reports were that this may have been over their rescue efforts but now it seems it may be for something else. Still looks pretty awful to be prosecuting a company that risked themselves to save lives. I hope details are released soon so we can see.

I’ve done a table listing the 92 various portfolios and the spokespersons for them from Labour, National, Greens and ACT.

Hopefully useful for people who want to know who to approach on an issue.

TVNZ reports:

Jacinda Ardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is putting some onus on the public for the housing crisis, saying the Government had tried taxation to ease the soaring market three times without public support.

This is hilarious. The PM is saying the public are to blame for high house prices because they didn’t support a Capital Gains Tax.

First of all the impact of CGT on house prices would be minimal. The problem is largely constraints on supply. Labour actually had some good policies in 2017 on dealing with this – abolishing the Auckland rural urban boundary and infrastructure bonds for new subdivisions etc. But they failed to progress them.

But trying to blame the public for the decision by Ardern to rule out a CGT for all time is very weak. Ardern made that call unprompted. She could have simply said there would be no CGT during the current term of Parliament as there was no majority for it. But she ruled it out forever (so long as she is PM).

Her argument that the public rejected it, not her, is not well borne out by the facts. A 2017 ONCB poll found 58% supported a CGT and 34% opposed. In 2019 it was 46% support and 41% opposed.

Also of course leadership means doing things you believe in, even if the polls don’t support you. Key did partial asset sales even though the public were overwhelmingly against them.