The latest Gallup poll (the longest running series in the world) has Trump’s approval down 10% from 49% in April to 39% in May. His approval rating for the economy has also dropped from 63% in early 2020 to 47%.

Even if people think a particular poll is biased, this doesn’t matter in terms of the trend. A 10% drop is a 10% drop.

So how does Trump’s approval on Day 1231 of his presidency compare to other Presidents in Gallup polling.

1. Eisenhower 71%
2. Nixon 62%
3. Reagan 55%
4. Clinton 53%
5. Bush 43 49%
6. Obama 47%
7. Johnson 46%
8. Truman 40%
9. Trump 39%
10. Carter 38%
11. Bush 41 37%

Those in bold were re-elected. Carter and Bush 41 were defeated and Johnson pulled out.

The only President who won while polling at Trump levels was Truman who was at 40%

Barry Soper reports:

Borrowdale, a former legal draftsman at Parliament, is seeking a judicial review of the lockdown handling. The case is scheduled to be heard in the High Court at Wellington next month and it’s understood in a relatively rare move there will be a full bench of judges hearing the matter.

The court last week heard from the Auckland District Law Society and the Criminal Bar Association, which wanted to become involved in the case.

A judge also wanted to give the Law Society the opportunity to become involved and gave them until today to declare its intention, which the society has now done.

It’s expected the intervention will give specialist grunt to the case being mounted by Borrowdale.

This is a very important case. It is not about whether the lockdown was a good idea, but about whether it was done legally. The rule of law underpins our country.

Andrew Lilico writes:

Few, if any, great figures of the past led unblemished lives. All of us are sinners, and great men and heroes are no different. Another Westminster bridge statues is of Boudicca and her daughters. During her famous rebellion, Boudicca’s forces impaled the noblest women they captured on spikes, with their breasts cut off and sewn to their mouths. Should we tear down her statue lest folk think that is what we are celebrating about her? (Actually, in her case, it kind of is…)

What about Nelson? He was a flawed man in many ways. Indeed, his adultery with Lady Hamilton is notorious. A Guardian article on Tuesday said we should tear down his column because in the Lords he opposed parliamentary measures to curtail slavery and the slave trade. But quite obviously Nelson’s column is not there to celebrate or approve of his being an adulterer or a supporter of slavery. It is to commemorate his role in the navy, especially (though not solely) at the Battle of Trafalgar, our defeat of the French and the defence of our lands from over-run by hostile invaders. …

Sure – Churchill in the early 1920s used gas attacks and carpet-bombing of civilians in Iraq. Sure — Nelson supported slavery. Sure — Boudicca tortured prisoners for sport. Sure — David murdered one of his own bodyguards to cover up his adultery. In some of these cases we have statues to remember these terrible deeds though not to laud them. In other cases we have statues to remember other great deeds these people did despite their flaws.

Britons have engaged in fell deeds throughout history. We have learned from them and hope to be better now. But we are not ashamed. Perhaps there are statues we should remove. But, by and large, ours is a history to be proud of — for all its many flaws.

We see this here also with some people calling for statues of Captain Cook to be removed etc.

I’m very reluctant to tear down statues of historical figures just because centuries later we judge parts of their lives more harshly.

There are some statues that probably never should have been erected in the first place, such as King Leopold. Killing 10 to 15 million Congolese in one of the worst periods of absolute rule shouldn’t get you a statue.

Today on 10 June 2020 The Herald reports:

The minister in charge of the Pike River Mine recovery effort, Andrew Little, says it is “just impractical” to expect the remains of all of the fallen miners to be recovered.

Instead, the re-entry efforts are now essentially solely focused on gathering evidence in the “homicide of 29 men”, Little told a select committee hearing this morning.

So Little say impractical and further:

He said bringing the remains home was no longer an objective of the re-entry – he said it was “just impractical” given the complex technicalities of the mine’s geography.

But in terms of recovery of human remains, Little said he has always maintained there is a very low probability of recovery.

Little says he has always said there is a very low probability of recovery! So why did he announce this a couple of years ago:

This government – and the three parties that make it up – committed to fulfilling the original promise made to the families of the 29 miners and workers: to do everything practicably possible to re-enter the drift to recover any remains

Did Little then say it was a very low probability? No of course not.

The Taxpayers’ Union announced:

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union has laid a formal complaint with the Auditor General regarding today’s full-page advertisements placed in a number of newspapers, including the NZ Herald and the Dominion Post, by the Government (pictured below). …

These advertisements are not primarily informative or educational, unlike earlier Government COVID-19 advertisements. Today’s ads have moved into the realm of thinly veiled political propaganda at the taxpayers’ expense.

‘Unite for the recovery’ is widely expected to be the central theme of the Labour Party’s 2020 election campaign. Only 102 days from an election, the public service should be vigilant to political masters using taxpayer-funded resources to support political messages.

Taxpayers should not be funding self-congratulatory messages.

David Farrier writes:

You might remember a while ago — back in 2016 — I wrote about the incredibly weird tale behind Bashford Antiques. It told the story of a New Zealand antiques store that became quite obsessed with clamping cars. It created such a kerfuffle it hit the 6pm news down here.

The reason it got out of hand is that people were being charged up to $760 to have their cars unclamped. Which is quite a bit of money for half an hour’s parking.

Now, if you’re not from from New Zealand: we had this weird legal loophole here, where if you parked on private property (say, a store’s car park), the business owner could put a clamp on your car, then demand whatever they wanted before they’d take it off.

Obviously, that law existed to discourage people parking in parks that weren’t theirs, but charges of $760 showed the system was being abused.

I wrote about the whole saga, drawn into a truly bizarre world of shadowy figures, alleged royal lineages, legal threats, court, and — to sum it all up — a bunch of weird shit… all leading back to one guy:

The guy is Michael Organ, also known as Count Michael Andrassy-Organe, and Prince Michael Organe-Schirinksi.

I can’t wait for the documentary. I’ve followed the saga over the years and it is just morbidly fascinating.

Stuff reports:

Police are scrapping Armed Response Teams after public feedback.

Police Commissioner Andrew Coster said on Tuesday Armed Response Teams (ARTs) would not be part of the New Zealand policing model in the future.

The decision not to roll-out ARTs following the six-month trial had been made based on preliminary findings from the trial evaluation, feedback received from the public, and consultation with community forum groups.

ARTs, part of the armed offenders squad (AOS), are armed and mobile to aid frontline officers, unlike the rest of the AOS which comprises officers on 24-hour call from a range of police jobs.

“New Zealand police values our relationships with the different communities we serve, and delivers on the commitments we make to them.”

Coster said it was clear the response teams did not align with the style of policing that New Zealanders expected.

“We have listened carefully to that feedback and I have made the decision these teams will not be a part of our policing model in the future.”

Coster added he was committed to New Zealand police remaining a generally unarmed police service.

I think this is the right decision. Not because some people didn’t like them, but because there didn’t appear to be strong evidence that having them resulted in better outcomes.

Often the ARTs got involved in low level stuff, where armed officers were not needed.

On my Patreon I’ve blogged the results of Curia’s poll on what the public thinking of prioritising surgery by race, with breakdowns by age, area and party support.

Patreon subscribers voted two weeks ago on what they wanted to poll on, and this issue was the most popular choice.

Stuff reports:

Independent advice provided to the Government last year warned that the Reserve Bank’s plan to boost bank capital risked damaging the New Zealand economy.

A nine page memorandum was provided by consultant and former chief economist of Deutsche Bank NZ, Ulf Schoefisch, and concluded the regulator’s proposal to strengthen the country’s commercial banks “appears unnecessarily risky” and “appears to have been informed by low quality information”.

The advice was provided in mid-March, 2019 to David Parker, then economic Development minister and Carolyn Tremain, chief executive of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

So this wasn’t advice commissioned by the banks, but by MBIE. And the advice was that the Reserve Bank’s proposals were risky and based on low quality information.

One of the few benefits of Covid-19 is the proposals have been dropped for now. But they shouldn’t have needed a pandemic to stop them.

A new CNN/SSRS poll has Trump in real trouble. Even if you take into account the SSRS poll is normally 1.2% overly favourable to Democrats, it is still very significant.

• Trump approval 38% ( down 7% from May)
• Net approval is -19% (was -6% in May)
• Biden lead over Trump: 14% (was 5% in May)

Biden’s lead has shot up 9% in just one month and Trump’s net approval is down 13%. They are very significant.

The demographic breakdowns for the intended vote is also interesting:

• Men: Trump +2%
• Women: Biden +27%
• Whites: Biden +2%
• Under 45s Biden +23%
• Over 45s Biden +7%
• Non college grads Biden +3%
• College grads Biden +31%
• White non college grads Trump +16%
• Liberals Biden +88%
• Moderates Biden +28%
• Conservatives Trump +56%

Shouldn’t judge too much off one poll, but the key thing is the difference between May and June. It suggests the handling of the protests has backfired badly, especially the photo op with the bible in front of the church.

On the plus side for Trump, Biden has been near invisible, which is the best place for Biden. As Biden gets exposed to media more, his gaffes may surface more. Trump is a formidable campaigner and I expect the polls will tighten as the campaign gets underway. But Trump’s photo op was a disaster and he needs to find a way to move on from it.

The Spinoff reports:

Five minor parties have joined forces to challenge the big two parties – and the Electoral Commission – about their low allocation of public funding for election broadcasts. Alex Braae reports.

A coalition of minor parties has emerged to challenge the allocation of public funding for election broadcasts, the majority of which has been locked up by Labour and National.

Out of just over $4 million, the two party duopoly has claimed $2.5 million, leaving the rest to be fought over by the rest of the field.

Social Credit, the Māori Party, New Conservative, the Outdoors Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party have found perhaps the one issue all of them agree on – that small parties are not treated fairly in the allocation. They want an urgent law changed passed so that all parties who stood seven or more candidates at the last election get an equal share of the broadcasting allocation.

They should be grateful, not greedy. The idea that a party which got 806 votes should get the same broadcasting allocation as a party that got 1.15 million votes is nuts.

In fact the five whinging parties all did very well out of the allocation, if you measure it against the votes they got in 2017.

Social Credit is getting a massive $65 for every vote they received, compared to under $2 per vote for the four larger parties.

Of course the simplest way to make it even fairer is to abolish the allocations. Let parties raise their own money.

The Herald reports:

A mother whose baby was taken into state care because of child abuse concerns says she first found out about the planned uplift when she was on the birthing table.

The unnamed mother, whose story is told in a new report, said she had done everything to convince authorities that she would be a good parent.

“My whole pregnancy was pretty good, like no issues,” she said.

“Everything was up to date, never missed, did everything possible like parenting courses, the whole shebang.

“I did everything possible to make sure that I was proving to [Child Youth and Family] that I’m doing right for my unborn. It wasn’t ’til I was halfway through labour I found out there was already an automatic uplift and then it went to s*** straight up.”

Her account is published in a report by the Office of the Children’s Commissioner, released today.

One of four investigations into Oranga Tamariki’s uplift practices, the report was based on interviews with mothers and families of 13 Māori pēpi, all of whom were either removed or at risk of removal by Oranga Tamariki or its predecessor Child, Youth and Family (CYF). Of this group, five eventually had their children removed.

Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft said the stories highlighted “deep systemic issues” in the state care and protection system.

I’ve read the report. It is, with respect, basically useless.

Nowhere in the report does it gives any a skerrick of detail as to why these mothers had come to be involved with OT. We don’t know how many previous children they’ve had and what has happened with them. Without this detail, one can not judge how reasonable or unreasonable OT has been.

I am sure there are times OT gets it wrong, and that it can improve how it operates. Automatic uplift orders should be known to the mother.

But publishing a report that gives oxygen to their litany of complaints and that provides no details of what has happened to their previous children is unbalanced.

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she’s “angry” with the Warehouse Group after it announced at least 1000 jobs will be axed.

The country’s largest retailer, which took almost $52 million from the wage subsidy to cover about 8500 workers, yesterday said it would be closing six more stores and cutting 130 people from its headquarters.

The wage subsidy scheme is due to end tomorrow.

Ardern told RNZ this morning the Warehouse had promoted itself as being “in the community and for the community”.

“I’m angry. If I’m speaking frankly.”

What an appalling thing to say.

The PM personally intervened to ensure The Warehouse was not classified as an essential business and had to stay closed during Level 4.

Almost all retailers have had a huge drop in revenue. If you have less revenue, you can’t afford to employ as many people. This is pretty basic stuff, but I guess the PM knows better.

Herald business editor Hamish Rutherford notes:

Maybe raising the minimum wage in the middle of a pandemic and recession turned out to be a stupid idea after all. Maybe the PM should be angry at herself, not at the businesses who are victims of the recession.

We’re giving taxpayers the opportunity to get to know their MPs beyond photo-ops and party-line speeches. In this episode, Islay Aitchison interviews Melissa Lee MP. 

The Herald reports:

Trade Minister David Parker is accusing the European Union of agricultural protectionism and questioning whether the trading bloc is committed to completing a free-trade deal.

Over the weekend European trade publications revealed details of what they said were being offered by European Union trade negotiators to New Zealand officials for dairy quotas under a possible free-trade agreement.

Although details of the offer are unclear, one commentator said it included tariff rate quotas for 15,000 tonnes of cheese over a decade.

Parker, speaking at a trade event in Wellington on Monday, was scathing, describing the offer as “paltry”. …

Parker said in 2019 the EU exported the equivalent of just under 1kg of cheese to New Zealand for every New Zealander, tariff free.

In contrast, the offer the EU had put on the table would allow New Zealand to export the equivalent of about three grams of cheese for every European Union citizen annually and “even then it’s subject to volume restrictions and highly prohibitive tariffs,” Parker said.

I never expected the EU to offer us anything near a decent agreement. They are hugely protectionistic.

Newshub reports:

Police Minister Stuart Nash took many by surprise this week, stating it was his personal belief that there is no systemic racism in New Zealand Police.

Nash’s statement appears to fly in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary, including a recent study which found police are almost twice as likely to send a first-time Māori offender to court than they are a Pākehā offender. 

That study is not evidence of anything. It possibly could be, but it is so general as to be useless.

You see what the study doesn’t compare is first-time offenders by the severity of their offence.

If the study was of (for example) first time burglars and found Maori offenders were 1.8 times to go to court than Pakeha offenders, then that would definitely be strong evidence of bias.

But this study looks at all first time offenders and we do not know if the sort of offences that first time Maori offenders have typically committed are the same sort as first time Pakeha offenders.

If for example 50% of first time Maori offenders have committed a serious violence offence and only 25% of first time Pakeha offenders have done so, that might explain the difference.

Now it is possible there is systematic bias in New Zealand. I’m not denying that possibility. But the study quoted is not evidence of that. What would be useful is a breakdown of the overall prosecution referral rate by type of first offence and ethnicity. That would be useful.

The Government has announced we will move to Covid Level 1 at midnight tonight.

This should mean all restrictions are lifted except around international travel.

It is very pleasing that New Zealand has got through Covid-19 with relatively few cases and lives, and can now concentrate on rebuilding the economy and creating new jobs for those who have lost them.

The Herald reports:

Tamati Coffey has been called out after telling fellow MP Melissa Lee to “stick to your job, love”.

The two television personalities-turned MPs traded barbs at the end of a select committee hearing at Parliament today.

In an exchange captured on audio, National MP Lee suggests to a staffer there should be two microphones when two Ministers appear in front of the Economic Development, Science and Innovation Committee.

But things get a little heated when Labour’s Coffey weighs in.

“Hey, hey, stick to your job love,” he says. “Ordering around the microphones.”

Lee objects saying “I’m not ordering her, I’m just suggesting.”

“That’s why you work in TV don’t you,” Coffey replies.

“Excuse me, I do have a name, my name is not ‘eh eh eh'” she retorts.

National’s Judith Collins later tweeted about the exchange saying she had to tell Coffey that calling a senior female MP ‘love’ was completely inappropriate.

The usual double standards. If a National MP had said that about a Labour MP, there would have been statements denouncing them from a dozen different groups.

Shane Jones has confirmed he is standing for Northland. No one is surprised by this. He has spent billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money trying to buy the seat.

His electoral record to date is below:

• 2005 – got 24% of the electorate vote in Northland
• 2008 – got 29% of the electorate vote in Northland
• 2011 – got 34% of the electorate vote in Tamaki Makarau
• 2017 – got 19% of the electorate vote in Whangarei

His record to date makes Sue Moroney look like an electoral superstar.

The Herald reports:

Rotorua Lakes councillor Tania Tapsell has today been selected to be the new National Party candidate for the East Coast electorate.

Both former National Party leader Simon Bridges and Rotorua MP Todd McClay made the announcement on their Facebook pages.

Bridges said Tapsell would make “an awesome Member of Parliament”.

McClay offered his “huge congratulations” to Tapsell in his Facebook message.

“Tania is a successful campaigner, hard-working and deeply passionate about the East Coast. She will be a very successful MP for National,” McClay said in his post.

Tapsell is a Rotorua District Councillor and former Labour MP and Mayor Steve Chadwick said:

Chadwick, who has mentored Tapsell since she became a councillor, said she was disappointed she could be losing her on the council.

“I saw her as a future leader for Rotorua and council and I am disappointed but I understand her political ambition and aspirations and we’ve discussed it.”

And a good electoral record:

Tapsell has been the highest-polling candidate on the Rotorua Lakes Council for the past two elections and surpassed even the mayor in vote numbers in 2019.

Tania has worked in tourism, and been employed by BNZ and Deloitte. She is completing a Masters of Management.

Her great uncle was the first Maori Speaker of the House, Sir Peter Tapsell.

National holds East Coast by 4,807 but local Labour List MP Kiri Allan has a high profile and will be a substantive challenger. National needed a great candidate to retain the seat, and it looks like they have found one.