Stuff reports:

An affordable intercity passenger rail network that can compete with flights should be a priority for government, Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter says.

Genter wants subsidies for the KiwiRail-run Northern Explorer train service so it can be transformed from a premium tourist service to a low-cost passenger train.

“The service hasn’t been very reliable recently. But it still could serve a really basic need for people to get between cities without a car,” she said.

The Northern Explorer’s 680-kilometre journey along the main rail trunk of the North Island has been running since 1909, but has been paused indefinitely since March 22 due to Covid-19.

The Greens really do not understand what motivates people to make travel choices.

The notion that people who fly between Auckland and Wellington will take the train instead if it is cheaper is bollocks.

People fly between Auckland and Wellington because it is a one hour flight against a 12 hour train. If I have to attend a meeting in Auckland I sometimes fly there and back in the same day. For me to take the train, I would be away for three days.

I am one of the rare people who has taken the train multiple times. When you are not working and don’t have kids, it can be a great way to travel. But it is unsuitable for most travelling NZers.

The train service between Wellington and Auckland competes on price with the bus service. It doesn’t compete with the planes on price, but on time.

If one had a spare $20 billion to put in a 350 km/hr train between Auckland and Wellington, then it might compete with planes, but that would be even more uneconomic.

The reality is tourists, not NZers, were the main users of the train service and without them you are just pouring money down a black hole to have a train travel 650 kms with half a dozen people on board.

You could make the fares half price and you wouldn’t get any significant transfer from planes to trains, because it is an 11 hour journey.

The report by Michael Heron QC is here. It is no surprise as we already know who was responsible, but the findings are:

• Michelle Boag and Hamish Walker were responsible for the unauthorised disclosure, their motivations were political and their actions unjustified
• The Ministry of Health should have had better protection over personal information
• Walker admits his judgment was impaired due to his distress at being labelled a racist
• The actions of Walker and Boag fell below the standards NZers expect but Heron appreciates their candor and regret

The Herald reports:

Demand for water in Wellington could outstrip supply in as little as six years, prompting authorities to undertake a business case into household water meters across the metropolitan region.

The supply-demand balance for water was last assessed in 2017, but a report tabled at a Wellington Water Committee meeting this year shows the situation has changed.

The population growth rate has exceeded those earlier forecasts, meaning the region will need to find a new water source well before 2040.

It could be needed as early as 2026 if demand and projected population growth continue on the trajectory they’re on now, a Sustainable Water Supply Target and Policy report said.

Water metering has proven controversial in the region over recent years, with politicians kicking the can down the road or voicing concerns over any system that involved charging people for water.

But Auckland’s water crisis is a dire example of a water supply gone wrong and why the debate in Wellington can no longer be pushed to the back of the queue.

I think water meters are a no brainer. It costs money to store and supply water and someone has to pay for that. The current system means you pay regardless of your use so a elderly pensioner living in an CBD apartment may use 10% of the water of a family with a large garden but pay the same or more.

When the cost of water is correlated to how much you use, it encourages conservation. Water meters are both fairer and reduce costs for everyone as you have less wasted water.

I live in an area with no mains water, so we rely on our two 30,000 litre rainfall tanks. This encourages you to be very careful with water usage, knowing that if we use too much in summer we will have to pay $250 for an extra 10,000 litres.

Andy Haden has died aged 69, from cancer. He played 41 tests for the All Blacks from 1972 to 1985. I was aged 5 to 18 at the time, so he was one of the All Black greats I grew up to.

A huge towering man at two metres tall. He dominated the field. He potentially had a good career as an actor also, based on his on field antics!

One of the best All Blacks we have seen.

Peter Nicholas in The Atlantic looks at six reasons why Trump may still win, despite being behind in both national polls, and state polls. They are:

1. The economy could come back just enough.
2. Polling could be wrong (again).
3. Trump can campaign all day long.
4. Biden’s got his own problems.
5. Biden voters might not get to vote.
6. What if there’s an October surprise?

Just 100 days or so to go!

Stuff reports:

The Government is spending $51m in an attempt to keep the international education sector afloat through the ravages of Covid-19, as it warns them not to expect students for the rest of the year.

Schools, universities, and other institutions that rely on lucrative international students have been under serious strain through the border closure.

The sector is worth around $5b a year to the economy, according to a report from Education New Zealand.

The $51 million is 1% of the lost income to the economy.

Its madness we’re not allowing in long-stay people (ie not tourists) so long as they go through testing and isolation.

The decision to not allow foreign students back will result in thousands of job losses that could have been prevented.

The Herald reports:

National Party leader Judith Collins has revealed Kiwis wanting to start a business will be able to access up to $20,000 from KiwiSaver under its small-business policy.

She told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB this morning that the money belonged to people yet they couldn’t access it.

“The rainy day is here now but they need to have that start. It’s their money so why can’t they use it?”

The policy is intended to involve measures to make it easier for people who have lost jobs through the Covid-19 economic downturn to start a business.

Collins explained the National policy was about creating a way for cash-strapped people who had lost their job in the wake of the Covid lockdown to get businesses going with their retirement funds.

This is an excellent policy. Just as you can use your KiwiSaver to help you buy a house, this will mean you can also use it to help you start up your own business.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand has suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, saying it can no longer trust that the city’s justice system is independent of China.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters issued a statement on Tuesday, saying New Zealand would also change how it controls the trade of sensitive goods – such as military technology or “dual-use” goods which could have military applications – with Hong Kong.

The suspension of an extradition treaty means New Zealand will no longer agree to deport any person to Hong Kong, if charged with a serious crime.

Foreign affairs officials had been reviewing New Zealand’s relationship with Hong Kong, after Beijing imposed a security law on the city which has been widely condemned for cracking down on democracy in the city and compromising a “one country, two systems” arrangement.

This is a reasonable and proportionate move. If Hong Kong is losing its independent judicial system, we shouldn’t automatically accept extradition requests from them.

For many years China was liberalising both its economy but also the country as a whole. But it is clear that in the past few years it is now becoming more authoritarian.

When China was heading in the right direction, engaging more with it was sensible. Now it is heading in the wrong direction, we should be more cautious.

If we really want to send China a message, the four universities that have China funded Confucius Institutes should decline to renew the agreements.

Stuff reports:

Goldsmith said he wanted to remind listeners that the Labour government had “squandered” within two years the surpluses it inherited from the National government.

“The previous National government, we had to borrow a lot of money to get us through the Global Financial Crisis, and the Canterbury earthquakes – we had to borrow $50 billion,” Goldsmith said.

“And then with good economic management, and careful spending and an absolute focus on growth, we got on top of that and restored New Zealand’s prosperity to the extent that in 2017 when we left government, we left an inheritance of massive government surpluses, a rapidly growing economy, and jobs being created – 10,000 jobs a month.

“And within two short years, before the Covid-19 crisis, this government had taken that inheritance and squandered that entire surpluses and were projecting a budget deficit before the Covid-19 situation occurred,” he said.

This is a key message.

Labour out the country into recession even before the GFC in 2008 and National inherited a projected decade of deficits. Strong economic management saw those deficits become surpluses and debt repaid.

Labour squandered the surpluses within two years, before Covid-19. And once again we are facing a decade or more of deficits. The only solution Labour will have is massive tax increases.

The Cook Report has its latest electoral college forecast. They have:

• Biden 308, Trump 187, Toss Ups 40

Trump has to win all of the toss up states and some of the Lean Democratic states.

In the Senate there are 11 competitive seats. They are:

• North Carolina – Lean D pickup
• Iowa – Lean D pickup
• Maine – Lean D pickup
• Montana – Lean D pickup
• Arizona – Lean D pickup
• Georgia I – Lean R retain
• Colorado – Likely D retain
• Michigan – Lean D retain
• Kentucky – Lean R retain
• Alabama – Lean R pickup
• Georgia II – Lean D pickup

So at this stage the Dems win six, lose one and that gives then 52 seats and a majority.

Finally the House:

• Dems 221, GOP 189, Tossups 25 (need 218)

If the Democrats do win all both chambers and the presidency, they will be tempted to abolish the filibuster in the Senate so they can pass laws unimpeded.

If this occurs, this will be the price Congressional Republicans pay for their hypocrisy.

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has again been forced to defend herself, and her ministers, from attacks from her Deputy Prime Minister, Winston Peters.

In a speech this morning, Peters – also the leader of New Zealand First – took aim at Labour, his coalition partner, and the Greens.

A Government of those two parties in a coalition, Peters said, would be a “nightmare”.

Yet that is the option Winston chose to inflict on us at the last election. He chose to form a Government with them.

And if he is back in Parliament (unlikely), he will choose them again. A vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour and Greens to be in Government.

Danielle van Dalen writes:

The Covid-19 pandemic saw New Zealand enter its second nationwide state of emergency in March 2020. This gave the Government access to levels of power not seen since the 1950s, perhaps ever. As a nation, we got lucky this time – the pandemic exposed constitutional weaknesses that might have been exploited if we had leaders with a more totalitarian bent.

When an extraordinary event like this occurs, it’s important that we pause and take the time to learn from our experience. There will always be another emergency, and we need to be prepared for next time.

Totally agree. Covid-19 is the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression and the biggest health challenge in 100 years. The cost to us is around $140 billion.

It should be unthinkable that we don’t have a Royal Commission of Inquiry into all aspects of our response.

Establishing a royal commission of inquiry will provide an important avenue for beginning this work. As Professor Nick Wilson and colleagues suggest, an inquiry could investigate questions on the effectiveness and appropriateness of the Government’s actions when responding to the pandemic, the social impacts of the methods taken on different communities around New Zealand, “the implications for how public health systems are organised and resourced,” the “different health impacts” of the pandemic, as well as its “the long-term societal and economic impacts”. The first question, in particular, will assist as we determine where constitutional checks and balances should be strengthened.

It’s time to learn from what has happened and prepare for the future. Another emergency will come; the task now is to reflect and – alongside our work to ensure the long-term survival of our economic, public health and safety – work to ensure the long-term survival of our democracy. This should begin with the establishment of a royal commission.

There is a huge amount of stuff to cover in analysing our response and the impact of it. The Government should establish the Royal Commission before the end of the year.

Stuff reports:

A Queenstown lawyer, journalist and Dunedin restaurant owner are all in the race to replace disgraced Clutha-Southland MP Hamish Walker.

Sources have confirmed to Stuff Joseph Mooney, Olivia Caldwell and Matthew French are all in the running to replace Walker.

Joseph Mooney is a Queenstown based lawyer. He has had his own firm for the last five years and prior to that worked for the Public Defence Service. He is on the Southland Branch Council of the NZ Law Society.

Olivia Caldwell is a freelance sports journalist who has written for most newspapers and appeared regularly on television. She competed in the 2018 Coast to Coast.

Matthew French manages the Harbourside Grill in Dunedin. He previously managed the historic Corstorphine House.

Stuff reports:

Borrowdale’s counsel, Tiho Mijatov, told the court that some announcements, including from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Bloomfield, went further than the legal orders permitted.

The ends did not justify the means, and the emergency did not create the power to make all the restrictions that were made, he said.

Even if the first order was valid, what was imposed by public pronouncement went further than the order allowed, he said.

The prime minister told the nation, “This has to happen, and there will be no tolerance”, he said. …

Casey said the Prime Minister sometimes was Bloomfield’s mouthpiece, confirming the public health advice. People were being asked to change their behaviour voluntarily, she said.

“You think it is much more likely that everybody stayed home and stayed in their bubble because people had been educated rather than that it was a requirement imposed by the government?” Justice Thomas asked.

The Government has argued in court that for the first nine days, the statements by the PM and the Police Commissioner were educational only. I remember being told you will be arrested or detained if you broke their so called advice.

Jason Walls writes:

In front of a packed, Trumpesque rally in an Auckland event centre this afternoon, ex-National MP Jami-Lee Ross hitched his wagon to New Zealand’s radical political fringe.

He joined forces with a man named Billy Te Kahika – the leader of the new New Zealand Public Party.

It’s against 5G, 1080 and electromagnets but its most extreme policy platform boils down to conspiracy theories about Covid-19 and the Government’s response to the pandemic.

In a near 40-minute speech, Te Kahika – who founded the party 11 weeks ago – suggested Covid-19 was a bioweapon designed to be used on civilians around the world.

This really is nutty stuff. Its now far removed from the world is flat dogma.

He also wanted to do a full review of every UN agreement New Zealand has ever signed – this drew rapturous applause from the more than 1000 Public Party members at the event.

Alarming there were 1,000 there.

A guest post by Shaun Wallis, an expat working in London:

This week, the Government signalled its working on plans to charge New Zealand citizens to enter their own country. National is going further. It wants to charge New Zealanders $3000 for staying in quarantine. 

It’s a populist fix in the middle of an election, but it won’t make another outbreak in New Zealand any less likely. The financial benefit for the Government from the policy will be at the slimmest of margins, allowing for ways for people to pay. If anything, charging a fee will give a sense of false security to a problem that is ongoing and requires creative thinking. The better position to start from is: “how does NZ open for business in a way that’s safe and secure?”; not “how does NZ make people pay for this problem”. 

Countless expats in Australia & around the world are furious with the proposal. It impacts people on a deeply personal level. The overwhelming majority of Kiwis abroad eventually come home, bring skills and expertise, pay tax and live the majority of their lives back home. We all know of someone in our family or wider network that has done or is doing a stint overseas. Here are some core things to consider before we get to the issue of fees:

1.The pandemic is driving up the cost for thousands of Kiwis to return home: If you’re considering a move back and it was a case of pack your suitcase and home it would already have happened. All have the same commitments as those back home – jobs, family, flats and / or property. Lockdown & restrictions in many countries such as Europe and the USA have been more prolonged than NZ. Flight schedules have been badly impacted, with flights ranging anything up to $10k in the midst of the pandemic, depending where you are in the world. Many also have underlying health conditions or are too concerned to fly, and opted (in good faith) not to jump on a plane to pose a health risk to themselves and NZ on arrival.

2. Arrivals overloading the border diverts vital resources away from eliminating the virus: Put simply, could the NZ quarantine system have coped with the vast majority of the 1m Kiwi diaspora coming home at once? Of course not. Proposals that charges are about to apply to new arrivals will very likely create a rush at the border. The border is already under considerable strain as military and immigration officials have indicated.

3.$3000 is excessive and no one knows where it really came from: Hotel quarantine is expensive for the country, yes. $3,000 is also obscenely expensive for the individual, and hard to justify imposing at that price or where that price came from. Looking at how officials reached this figure, and what alternative models or pricing they considered, if any, will be telling. 

4. The public benefits at present: Quarantining at the border is part of NZ’s public health response to COVID-19, with the wider NZ public benefiting from zero COVID-19 transmission. Likewise the economic benefits of the border policy – e.g. your local restaurant being able to operate at capacity without social distancing measures. As is scaling up hospital capacity, deferring elective surgery etc. Similarly the NZ government is spending in other economic areas of its COVID-19 response, making up the $50b response package. This doesn’t make sense. 

We have alternatives:

It’s been nearly 6 months of COVID-19 and from early April whereby the NZ Government imposed the 14-day hotel quarantine. By now New Zealand could have started to pick and choose from some of the best models around the world and trial them. 

It still can.  Particularly as the world starts reopening. Vietnam, Hong Kong and Iceland are all models NZ can learn from and if nothing else, build on. For example:

• Vietnam: quarantine camps & “gold-standard” contract tracing – https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN21D0ZV 
• Hong Kong: at-home quarantine wristbands – https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-has-tracking-bracelets-to-enforce-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-4%3Famp 
• Iceland: COVID-19 tests on arrival, or present a COVID-19 negative certificate, or go into a 14 day hotel quarantine – https://www.airport-technology.com/news/iceland-covid-19-testing-arriving-passengers/ 

Crucially, what’s lacking from NZ’s current quarantine system is risk-profiling. 

Risk-profiling works on new arrivals based on country of origin and the state of COVID-19. A “traffic light” system has been coined based on COVID-19 prevalence. For example, if you’re a  passenger arriving on a direct flight from Vietnam is Taiwan, you have a lower chance of having COVID-19 than someone from Brazil. Testing could also be enhanced, with more frequent testing for those from “red” countries than green. This includes antigen and antibody testing, to confirm if persons arriving have already had COVID-19 and therefore deemed low risk. 

Once new models are piloted, these could be applied to other visitors (in the absence of no readily available vaccine this year). “COVID-19 Secure” holiday packages in “clean & green NZ” would be of interest to tourists as demand returns.

An interim pricing policy for returning New Zealanders until better border management is in place: 

To balance competing interests & as an interim solution, here’s a proposal that is fairer to Kiwis, both at home and abroad (kudos to chats with Megan Hands). It’s not perfect, but some principles to start with:

1. All returning/visiting New Zealand citizens can return once per year with cost of quarantine accommodation covered. 
2. Compassionate exemptions would be in place for funerals and visiting terminally or critically ill loved ones outside of your return once per year.
3. Spouses children of New Zealand Citizens treated as citizens and this policy applies. 
4. Permanent Residents can enter quarantine for free provided only they are returning on a permanent basis and to paid employment.
5. Meals could be user pays but at a capped rate – there is no free lunch for New Zealanders outside of quarantine, there doesn’t have to be one inside of it
6. Incentives for businesses trying to access the New Zealand market are needed as quarantine systems mature should be facilitated by NZTE

The wage subsidy is in place until September. The tourism sector is arguably heavily dented. NZ should be questioning whether it can afford to deter any more money coming into the country than what has been done already. To withstand rising unemployment when the wage subsidy is cut in September, NZ needs to partner with innovators to explore & launch different border control models. Charging $3000 per arrival does not guarantee NZ will be any safer. NZ has a very strong brand internationally at present that it can capitalise on and continue to act as fast movers. Targeted policies that unite everyone while testing and building resilient new systems are the best things NZ can do to lead on COVID-19. 

Kiwiblog turned 17 today. The first ever post was 26 July 2003.

There have been 44,650 posts and over 2,560,000 comments to date.

I did a big party for Kiwiblog’s 10th birthday party. Am unsure whether the next party should be for the 20th or the 21st?

Anyway thank you to the tens of thousands of readers and the many people who help keep Kiwiblog going including the moderators, Inspire Net, my guest posters, the commenters, those who have donated etc. It is appreciated.

The Herald reports:

Labour has selected Palmerston North Deputy Mayor Tangi Utikere for the electorate soon to be vacated by former Minister Iain Lee-Galloway.

The selection was made after just four days, as Lee-Galloway announced he would be stepping down as an MP at the election, after he was sacked by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

That’s an incredibly quick selection. National generally doesn’t even close nominations until seven days after they open to give people time to nominate and decide. And then you have pre-selection interviews, meet the candidate meetings and then selection.

The Herald reports:

Green MP Chloe Swarbrick has hit back at a suggestion by her rival Auckland Central candidate that she’s merely “a celebrity”.

Swarbrick and Labour’s Helen White are competing for the seat left vacant by departing National MP Nikki Kaye – and an Epsom-style deal has already been ruled out by Labour.

White told RNZ that she saw National – which is yet to name its new candidate for the seat – as her main opponent for the seat, rather than Swarbrick.

Quizzed about Swarbrick’s higher profile and name recognition, White told RNZ: “I’d ask them whether they’re looking for a celebrity or someone to do this job very seriously.”

Today, Swarbrick returned fire with a pointed tweet.

“Before I fought my way into @NZParliament with @NZGreens, I was dismissed as having no life experience,” she wrote.

“Now I’ve put my head down & done the work to huge results, & a candidate preferring themselves the front runner is using the same attacks against me that misogynists do our PM?”

The fighting her way into Parliament is debatable as Liam Hehir points out:

I think fighting your way into Parliament is what you do when you campaign unpaid full-time for nine months, door knock 10,000 houses and win a seat that the other party has held for 9,000 years.

Being placed in a winnable list spot is not really the same thing.

Newshub have released a Reid Research poll which shows Labour 36% ahead of National.

Now Reid Research is a very good polling company, but even the best polling company will get results outside the normal margin of error. When you say there is 95% confidence that the poll results are within 3% of the actual, that means there is a 5% chance they are not (putting aside non sampling errors).

I do not believe this poll is even close to reflecting the actual situation. There is no way there is a 36% gap between the parties. The numerous polls I have seen and done have it way way closer.

It is worth also noting what a Stuff survey has found:

Prior to the leadership change, the number of people responding to the survey who said they would probably vote National stood at 23.7 per cent support. After Collins took over, that number jumped to 40.2 per cent. Likewise, when people were asked about which leader they felt closest to, only 10 per cent named former leader Todd Muller, while 52 per cent named Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. But those numbers changed markedly after the leadership change, with 31.7 naming Collins, while Ardern dropped to 47.2 per cent.

Now the Stuff/Massey survey is not a scientific random poll, it is a self selecting survey. So you can’t say the topline data reflects the NZ electorate.

But the huge change pre and post Judith is significant. There has been a galvanising effect for National. And again that doesn’t mesh with a poll showing National dropping into the mid 20s.

The other thing worth noting is that no party has ever got over 50% in an election in the past 69 years. The last time was in 1951.

Again Reid Research is a very good polling company, but all pollsters can get “outlier” results. Last election Colmar Brunton (also a very good company) had two polls which showed Labour ahead, which didn’t mesh with any other poll, and then six days later another poll which showed the gap changed from 4% to -9%.

There is a good article at Five Thirty Eight about “outlier” polls and how they are part of the business. They say:

So what’s my advice to you as news consumers when you encounter a poll that looks like an outlier?

To a first approximation, the best advice is to toss it into the average. Definitely do not assume that it’s the new normal. 

The trouble in NZ is we have relatively few public polls. So my best advice is just to wait for the next couple of public polls, especially ones done entirely after the last week which was an especially messy week for both major parties.

I’m just sad political betting is illegal in NZ as I’d love to bet against Labour getting over 50% at the election, and make lots of money. I do miss the days of iPredict where I made (off memory) over $10,000 from the political markets there.