Matthew Hooton writes:

National’s strategy for 2020 is based primarily on the Ardern Government being uniquely incompetent in New Zealand history. Old timers suggest the Kirk-Rowling government as a rival, but in its three years it abolished compulsory military service, recognised the People’s Republic of China and established ACC, the Domestic Purposes Benefit and the Waitangi Tribunal. If the Ardern Government is similarly limited to one term, it will leave no legacy at all to trouble future historians.

The legacy will be some working groups. Even their so called major achievements of child poverty and climate change are little more than working groups to advise on future policy.

Bridges’ most important strategic decision for 2020 is whether or not to rule out governing with NZ First. National’s strong rhetoric against the perennial king-maker limits its options. In the court of public opinion, Bridges would be convicted of gross hypocrisy if he indicated he would lead a Bridges-Peters regime.

I think Bridges must rule Peters out.

Bridges knows he will lose any battle of the hugs against Ardern. But bringing together a new-generation National Party team, clearly distinct from anything that has come before, would demonstrate leadership qualities, seriousness of purpose, a commitment to meritocracy and an insistence on delivery that his rival clearly lacks. On those terms at least, Bridges too would best his opposite number.

I remind people that Labour’s Deputy Leader isn’t allowed to appear in public is the PM and Deputy PM are away.

Radio NZ report:

Two years ago the Department of Internal Affairs introduced a registration fee and an annual renewal fee, because despite having 2500 independent celebrants about 25 percent of them don’t do any weddings.

But the director-general of Births, Deaths and Marriages Jeff Montgomery, said market forces had not worked.

Montgomery said when he took over the role seven years ago, one of the first things he did was relax the criteria to be a marriage celebrant.

“There was a requirement that someone applying to be a celebrant demonstrated that there was a public need for their services in the local community, and one of the ways that was assessed was how many other celebrants were there.

“So if there was already a couple of celebrants in a smallish area like, perhaps Levin, then unless that they could prove that there was unmet demand they were unlikely to be approved. So that meant that some of the celebrants had been appointed many years ago and it was very difficult for new people to enter into that space.

“So my approach was, ‘well, let the market decide. When there’s enough celebrants in an area, people will stop applying’. But that hasn’t happened.”

The fact DIA assumed fewer people would not apply is not a market failure. It is just DIA made a wrong assumption.

If there are celebrants who end up with no clients, that is not a market failure. That is the market working.

The Herald reports:

The National Party has intensified its call for a ministerial inquiry into Pharmac’s decision to switch its funded epilepsy drug to Logem – which is suspected to be linked to five deaths.

National health spokesman Michael Woodhouse today released a statement again calling for a ministerial inquiry into Pharmac’s October 1 decision to change to a generic form of epilepsy drug lamotrigine.

“The tragic news that it’s suspected to have caused the death of a young father just before Christmas, as well as four deaths reported earlier in 2019, suggests the brand switch put lives at risk,” Woodhouse said.

“Medsafe and patients raised concerns about the switch before it went ahead.”

A Government spokesperson responded to the comments from Woodhouse by emphasising the matter was currently being looked into by the Coroner.

“Any sudden death is a tragedy and my sympathies are with the family and friends,” the spokesperson said.

“These deaths are being investigated by the Coroner, and in the meantime Pharmac has made changes to the way the brand change is being managed.”

Woodhouse also questioned Health Minister David Clark’s knowledge of the risks of Logem, after it was revealed Pharmac knew for more than two weeks that three deaths had been linked to its epilepsy drug brand switch but didn’t tell patients or the public.

It is possible the deaths had nothing to do with the change in drugs, but with five people dead I would have thought an independent inquiry into it would be warranted.

Newsweek reports:

President Donald Trump approved a U.S. drone strike that killed two senior Iraqi militia officials and the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. The operation, which Trump signed off Thursday morning, escalated tensions that had been simmering in Iraq during a week of unrest and bloodshed, and it put the U.S. in an aggressive posture in the region.

Qassem Soleimani is a major major figure in Iran. The New Yorker profiled him here. The best comparison I would do is consider him a Dick Cheney – someone with huge authority over foreign and military policy, who is sub-ordinate to only the Supreme Leader (and maybe the President).

I tend to agree with Nikki Haley. Soleimani was a terrorist ringleader, and the mere fact he did so with the authority of Iran shouldn’t be a protection. Trump has made a very strong response to the attack on the US Embassy, which I suspect Iran would have never expected.

But Peter M is right that such a dramatic escalation is not something we have seen before. The doctrine has always been a proportional response, and this is hugely disproportional. West Wing fans will recall the episode where the pros and cons of both were debated by Bartlett and Leo.

I’m less confident that this was done as part of a clear strategy. The best case scenario is Iran behaves better after such a bloody nose, as they fear other leaders could be taken out.

The worst case scenario is Iraq turns into a battleground between Iran and the US, and it’s all out war. The Iraqi Goverment is allied to both countries, and this act could see them having to choose Iran over the US.

Karl Rove makes some predictions for 2020. They are:

• Buttigieg wins Iowa
• No Democrat has a majority at the convention
• Biden wins once super delegates can vote
• Trump wins, unless against Biden
• Republicans keep the Senate, with smaller majority
• Democrats keep the House, with smaller majority
• No recession

I’d agree with most of those.

Glenn McConnell at Stuff proposes five ideas to make NZ “fairer, better and less annoying”.

Almost without exception they would achieve the opposite. Let’s take just one:

We get today off simply because it is “the day after New Year’s Day”. At least they could make up a name for “the day after Christmas Day”, aka Boxing Day. Don’t stop there. Why not the day before, as well?

Of course, some businesses will complain because money. Cry me a river. Public holidays are universally loved and drive spending in hospitality, tourism and in the regions. More importantly, they’re a day free (or well paid) of work. Only sycophantic corporate slaves would argue against days off.

New Zealand has a measly 11 public holidays a year. If we were to live in Colombia or Iran, we would have 27! Luxembourg has 11, but also paid special leave for anniversaries, weddings or moving house. Another few days won’t sink the banks.

I suspect Glenn has never worked in a small business. He seems to think all businesses are large corporates like his employer.

I did work in a small business. A small advertising and design agency. Like many businesses it owned money to the bank. If the overdraft hit the credit limit, then simply one couldn’t pay the bills. When that happened, the owners simply didn’t pay themselves. They often were paid less than the receptionist.

Most of the income comes from charging out staff time. Public holidays were a real burden because that week would mean 20% or 40% fewer billable hours, but still the same level of expenses.

So when Glenn says another few days won’t sink the banks, he is showing his lack of empathy and understanding of the hundreds of thousands of small businesses.

Also comparing to Iran or Colombia is puerile. Iran has so much oil it funds almost the entire country. Does he think NZ should do the same?

The useful comparison is with other OECD countries, and you compare statutory annual leave and public holidays. NZ has 31 days which means every fortnight you on average get at least a paid day off.

How does this compare:

• 38 – Austria
• 37 – Luxembourg
• 36 – Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Spain
• 35 – Norway
• 34 – Sweden
• 32 – Italy
• 31 – Estonia, NZ
• 30 – Australia, Belgium, Chile, South Korea, Germany
• 29 – Greece, Ireland
• 28 – Netherlands, UK
• 27 – Switzerland
• 21 – Israel
• 20 – EU
• 19 – Hong Kong, Taiwan
• 18 – Singapore
• 16 – Canada
• 10 – Japan
• 0 – US

So NZ is actually pretty generous compared to most OECD countries.

Bryce Edwards writes in The Guardian:

It was supposed to be the government’s “Year of Delivery” – or so Ardern declared to the press at the beginning of 2019. It was a neat line, because 2018 had been the “year of the working group” in which little reform was carried out, on the promise that the experts would hand the government some major new policies to implement.

However as 2019 rolled on and key promises such as KiwiBuild’s 100,000 affordable houses, a capital gains tax and alleviating child poverty failed to eventuate, the “Year of Delivery” line became a stick with which to beat the government at every turn.

We have now learned that Ardern’s “Year of Delivery” promise was only ever a slick catchphrase dreamed up by a speechwriter, not Ardern herself.

Last week Beehive insiders told leading political journalists that the “Year of Delivery” promise was actually a spin-line produced on the fly by the PM’s top spin doctor to get his boss out of a tight situation when she needed something memorable to say at the start of 2019. The explanation from the Beehive was to convey that it’s not actually fair to hold the PM to account for a catchphrase that was never intended to be taken so seriously.

It’s good to know that the Government was never serious about actually delivering on their promises, and the Ardern promise was just a PR phrase her staff came up with.

Stuff have made their annual 2020 predictions. They are:

1. The election is held in September – likely the latter half of the month.

2. Simon Bridges will rule out working with Winston Peters early in the year, much as John Key did in 2008. The personal animosity between the pair will only increase.

3. Personal cannabis use is not legalised, after the “Yes” camp narrowly loses the referendum campaign. Scaremongering about kids and young adults smoking cannabis reaches a fever-pitch while the yes campaign can’t quite decide if it is making cannabis use safer by regulating it, or if cannabis is actually not so unhealthy after all.

4. Euthanasia, on the other hand, wins its referendum, meaning David Seymour’s quest to legalise assisted dying will finally succeed – five years after he started it.

5. Speaking of David Seymour, we think he will get enough of the party vote at the 2020 election to bring in another MP, the first time ACT would have done this since 2011.

6. Banking becomes an election issue, as the big four look for ways to pass on the cost of the Reserve Bank’s capital changes. NZ First tries to get a Commerce Commission market study into banks but is overruled by Labour and the Greens who opt to look into supermarkets or building materials instead.

7. Jacinda Ardern and Clarke Gayford do not get married over the summer. While an election-year wedding is possible, we think it is very unlikely – and definitely not going to happen this summer, when many had expected it would.

8. Judith Collins releases her memoir. New Zealand relives the 2014 campaign. John Key and Nicky Hager are both criticised heavily. There is also some not-so-subtle pitching for the leadership.

9. The Botany electorate race gets fairly ugly as Jami-Lee Ross attempts to keep his career alive by any means necessary. Political blogs are somewhat involved. But Chris Luxon will win comfortably. 

10. Labour retains control of all seven Māori seats, despite a spirited resurgence campaign by the Māori Party. If John Tamihere decides to enter the fray this could be upturned.

11. Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee for US President after Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both get enough of the vote to stay in it, splitting the left vote.

12. Facebook “misinformation” is a big discussion point during the 2020 New Zealand election. National refuses to sign up to the toothless tool Facebook has provided to make the spending on Facebook more transparent. There are some mini-scandals over perceived inaccuracies in ads.

13. Labour changes the tax brackets in a way that delivers a tax cut for lower earners but not much of one for richer people. National offers a larger tax cut.

14. The predicted deficit will evaporate, as the Government continues to find it hard to actually spend all the money it wants to spend thanks to capacity constraints.

15. The Green Party realises the capital gains tax is too complicated and announces support for a very tough wealth tax. This policy is pursued heavily and causes some trouble for Labour.

16. Labour will re-announce some of National’s Roads of National Significance that it will be pursuing but will call them something else. (We don’t think KiwiRoads, quite.) Meanwhile the role and performance of NZTA will come under some serious scrutiny from the Government.

17. Dental will be a big election year issue, with parties competing to offer something strong. But neither National nor Labour will actually offer the big kahuna of free dental care for adults.

18. NZ First will kill off Andrew Little’s attempts to beef up hate speech laws, citing free speech concerns.

19. The Government will get more hawkish on China, particularly with regards to its role in the Pacific, as pressure from Canberra and Washington build. The trading relationship will not be harmed seriously, however.

20. Winston Peters will again hold the balance of power after the next election, after scraping into Parliament.

No 20 and No 2 are contradictory. If Bridges rules out working with Peters, then ipso facto NZ First won’t hold the balance of power. A vote for them will be the same as a vote for the Greens – a vote for a Labour-led Government.

Stuff have scored their 2019 predictions with 99/200. A couple they got right were:

• We predicted that that a majority of the tax working group would suggest a capital gains tax but the campaign against it would grow to such a fever-pitch meaningful tax reform would be abandoned by Labour.
• We decided there would not be 1000 KiwiBuild homes by the Government’s deadline of July 1 and things wouldn’t really improve by the end of the year.

And a couple they got wrong:

• We predicted Simon Bridges wouldn’t make the distance as leader this year and would be replaced by Judith Collins.
• We predicted that the Government would park its abortion law reform for fear of alienating socially conservative Labour voters.

Yahoo reports:

The United Nations on Friday approved a Russian-led bid that aims to create a new convention on cybercrime, alarming rights groups and Western powers that fear a bid to restrict online freedom.

The General Assembly approved the resolution sponsored by Russia and backed by China, which would set up a committee of international experts in 2020.

The panel will work to set up “a comprehensive international convention on countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes,” the resolution said.

Let there be no doubt at all that if China and Russia are spearheading this, their aim is to extend their Internet censorship from their own countries to the globe. Their idea of what is cybercrime is anything that their Government deem unhelpful to them.

The United States, European powers and rights groups fear that the language is code for legitimizing crackdowns on expression, with numerous countries defining criticism of the government as “criminal.”

Exactly.

New Zealand should make very clear that it will have no part on this treaty. If democratic countries refuse to get involved, then it will fail as it is only if other countries sign up, can China and Russia get what they want – global censorship.

Stuff reports:

An operation to re-enter the Pike River mine is on track to exceed its $36 million budget and require a taxpayer top-up.

Pike River Recovery Agency forecasts show the project running out of money mid-2020 – prompting the need for more cash from the Government to complete its work, expected to be finished by the end of November 2020. 

The agency was set up in January 2018 to re-enter the mine drift with the hope of finding out why 29 men died in a series of explosions in November 2010.

I hear the blow out may be as much as $10 milion.

The Government originally budgeted $7.6m a year for three years, totalling $23m. It then topped up the budget to $36m. 

So the within two years the costs look to be twice what the Government said.

If the cost gets over $40 million, then basically it is $1.5 million per family which could have been given direct to the families rather than on reentering the mine.

Ani O’Brien writes at Stuff:

New Zealand, the nation of the Springbok Tour protests, anti-nuclear action, and Dame Whina Cooper’s hikoi, has apparently undergone a cultural transformation and no longer tolerates political protest. 

In the last few weeks, a small group of Kiwis led by a 66-year-old Christchurch man has been quietly turning around books and magazines featuring our Prime Minister in stores around the country.

They contend that she spends for too much time on photoshoots and fluff pieces and not enough time working on the eradication of child poverty, homelessness, and the housing crisis.

Fair enough, right? We don’t necessarily have to agree with this, but good on them for peacefully demonstrating their political discontent with our Prime Minister and her Government. 

Wrong! Oh how wrong.

What should have been a flash-in-the-pan, barely noticed protest has now made not only national headlines but it has also been featured in international press.

I suspect the guy who started this can’t believe his luck – the pile on by opponents has meant his silly little campaign has got through to almost every voter in NZ. And while many would agree the campaign is silly, his underlying message of the PM not succeeding with the hard problems is not one the Government would want this much focus on (as it is so obviously true).

This is thanks to the characteristically hysterical response of the increasingly militant and intolerant section of the Left who are determined to attribute the most horrendous of social crimes to anyone who holds opinions contrary to theirs.

The founder of the #TurnArdern movement has had his private and business information published online, been threatened, and – along with all who have participated – been labelled a misogynist, racist, white supremacist extremist.

Now, I do not know the people involved with the protest, but as far as I can tell turning books around is about as benign as political objection can get.

Exactly. When I first heard about the campaign, I thought those involved were a bunch of stupid dicks. But you know what. Because of the hysterical response to it (the highlight being Ardern’s biographer comparing it to the Salem Witch burnings) it’s almost (key word almost) has made me want to join the campaign.

The Guardian reports:

A Navy Seal platoon leader controversially cleared of war crimes by Donald Trump was a “toxic” character who was “OK with killing anything that moved”, according to fellow Iraq veterans who reported his conduct to military investigators. …

“The guy is freaking evil,” special operator first class Craig Miller, one of the platoon’s most experienced members, told investigators in sometimes tearful testimony. “I think Eddie was proud of it, and that was, like, part of it for him.”

Miller said Gallagher, who had the nickname Blade, went on to stage a bizarre “re-enlistment ceremony” over the body of the captive. “I was listening to it and I was just thinking, like, this is the most disgraceful thing I have ever seen in my life,” he said.

Bear in mind these are the views of other Navy Seals – not known for being precious snowflakes. If they are saying Gallagher was an evil toxic character, that suggests that perhaps one shouldn’t be treating him as a hero.

The 2020 New Year’s Honours List is here. The top titular honours are:

The Herald reports:

The Government is promising to ditch diesel-powered ministerial cars and is immediately purchasing another six new electric SUVs for the fleet.

The new vehicles will mean that roughly 40 per cent of the 72-vehicle ministerial Crown fleet is either fully electric, or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

That’s up from 2 per cent when the current Government took over in 2017.

This means nothing in the overall picture. As Ministers set their own budget of course they can decide to cover the extra cost of electric vehicles. But six new electric vehicles is not even a drop in the ocean.

“We are playing a leadership role and intend to transition the full Crown car fleet to emissions-free vehicles by 2025/26.”

Wow 70 vehicles in total. Designed to hide their huge failure in terms of the coalition agreement which was that the entire government fleet of 15,500 would be emissions free by 2025.

Their actual delivery has been 78 government vehicles are emissions-free. This takes it I guess to 84.

This means the government fleet has gone from 0.50% electric to 0.54%. Yay. After two years they are 0.54% of the way to their eight year goal.

The 2017 Election Study has some interesting data, including a breakdown by religion as to how respondents voted. It was:

• No religion: National 39%, Labour 39%, Greens 10%, NZF 5%
• Christian: N 50%, L 33%, G 3%, NZF 9%
• Buddhist: N 61%, L 21%, G 14%
• Hindu: N 25%, L 71%
• Muslim: N 36%, L 65%
• Jewish: L 41%, N 8%
• Satanic: L 26%, G 74%

So atheists split between National and Labour. National gets more support from Buddhists and Christians. Labour gets more support from Hindus, Muslims and Jews and Greens do best with Satanists!

The BBC reports:

A court in Saudi Arabia has sentenced five people to death and jailed three others over the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi last year.

Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the Saudi government, was killed inside the kingdom’s consulate in the Turkish city of Istanbul by a team of Saudi agents.

The Saudi authorities said it was the result of a “rogue operation” and put 11 unnamed individuals on trial.

A UN expert said the trial represented “the antithesis of justice”.

It is a farce. They haven’t even named those convicted which means it is highly possible they in fact will all get medals as no one will know for sure if they are in fact executed or jailed.

2 Cheap Cars boasted:

Our CEO Dan Buckley attended the first Business conference held by the Labour government in Wanganui on Friday the 29th of November, to help educate and engage with New Zealand business and open dialogue to create more involvement around policy creation.

Even got a photo with the Minister of Finance:

This was just a few weeks ago.

Back in July the District Court fined 2 Cheap Cars $438,000 for blatantly untrue, misleading and devious behaviour.

Sounds like a good description of the Government also!

2 Cheap Cars have run seven liquidation sales, despite not going into liquidation. Their claims of massive discounts were false. For one sake, the court found of 710 cars, 413 were not discounted at all and 127 were discounted by $5 only.

Yet a business the Government is happy to do photo opportunities with.