A guest post from Qwizard:

Qwizard is a new entrant to the pub quiz market with a difference – they keep the scores.

With a compulsory New Zealand history curriculum to be developed over the coming years it’s topical to examine how New Zealand understands its own history. Qwizard crunched a few numbers for us to see how New Zealand pub quiz teams perform in certain areas.

Knowledge on New Zealand war history shows an immediate weakness – with 6 specific questions across almost 1,500 players showing an average correct score of just 29.7%.

Meanwhile, questions on New Zealand political history also demonstrate a clear, relative gap in knowledge. Across 12 specific questions on pre-World War II New Zealand politics, and over 3,000 players, teams scored an average of just 38.7%.

These results compare to an average score on all History questions of 60.9%.

The data tends to reinforce the need for the development of a relevant New Zealand curriculum.

So pub quiz teams on average get international history questions right 61% of the time and NZ history questions right between 30% and 40% of the time.

Matt Ridley writes at The Spectator:

Let nobody tell you that the second decade of the 21st century has been a bad time. We are living through the greatest improvement in human living standards in history. Extreme poverty has fallen below 10 per cent of the world’s population for the first time. It was 60 per cent when I was born. Global inequality has been plunging as Africa and Asia experience faster economic growth than Europe and North America; child mortality has fallen to record low levels; famine virtually went extinct; malaria, polio and heart disease are all in decline.

Little of this made the news, because good news is no news.

Think about that stat – half the world rose out of extreme poverty in just one lifetime.

But the next time you hear Sir David Attenborough say: ‘Anyone who thinks that you can have infinite growth on a planet with finite resources is either a madman or an economist’, ask him this: ‘But what if economic growth means using less stuff, not more?’ For example, a normal drink can today contains 13 grams of aluminium, much of it recycled. In 1959, it contained 85 grams. Substituting the former for the latter is a contribution to economic growth, but it reduces the resources consumed per drink.

A useful factual rebuttal of the oft repeated claim growth is finite.

The quantity of all resources consumed per person in Britain (domestic extraction of biomass, metals, minerals and fossil fuels, plus imports minus exports) fell by a third between 2000 and 2017, from 12.5 tonnes to 8.5 tonnes. That’s a faster decline than the increase in the number of people, so it means fewer resources consumed overall.

Excellent.

If this doesn’t seem to make sense, then think about your own home. Mobile phones have the computing power of room-sized computers of the 1970s. I use mine instead of a camera, radio, torch, compass, map, calendar, watch, CD player, newspaper and pack of cards. LED light bulbs consume about a quarter as much electricity as incandescent bulbs for the same light. Modern buildings generally contain less steel and more of it is recycled. Offices are not yet paperless, but they use much less paper.

I can relate to that. One mobile phone has replaced half a dozen previous devices we had.

For instance, experts in the 1970s forecast how much water the world would consume in the year 2000. In fact, the total usage that year was half as much as predicted. Not because there were fewer humans, but because human inventiveness allowed more efficient irrigation for agriculture, the biggest user of water.

Ironically some on the left oppose irrigation.

In a podcast interview on a new economics book, the following exchange occurred:

Binyamin Appelbaum: … If you look around the world, the Central Bank of New Zealand is a great example of this. Their mandate in the 1970s had, like, eight objectives in it. They were responsible for trade balances. They were responsible for the exchange rate. They were responsible for unemployment. They were responsible for all sorts of things; and it was stripped down to just one, which is: Hit an inflation target. That’s sometimes portrayed, by the way – the rise of inflation targeting, which is what emerges in the aftermath of the Volcker era – it was certainly portrayed at the time as a failure of Milton Friedman’s ideas.

I think that’s fundamentally wrong. I think it was his victory in a slightly different form than he anticipated, but the idea that monetary policy was central, that it should be minimalist in its approach, that it should just try to keep things on an even keel was really the core of his idea. By convincing people that that was the proper approach to monetary policy, he gradually changed the approach to central banking around the world.

Russ Roberts: It’s interesting. When I interviewed him [Milton Friedman] in 2006, he attributes the success and triumph of his ideas not to his research, The Monetary History of the United States, this magisterial volume of incredible detail, but rather to the success of Don Brash, the Central Banker of New Zealand, in slaying inflation there and opening the eyes of people to this possibility.

So one of the most influential and important economic and intellectual giants on the last century cites Don Brash as a key to the success of his monetary research.

Yet Massey University thought allowing students to hear from him would be a health and safety risk!

The Herald reports:

An alliance of business and transport groups says Aucklanders are being kept in the dark about plans for light rail in the city.

The six groups have taken out their frustration in a letter to Transport Minister Phil Tywford, criticising the Government’s approach to delivering light rail.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promised at the 2016 elections to have light rail up and running to Mt Roskill within four years. Twyford promised to make an immediate start on light rail to West Auckland, only to postpone it indefinitely this year.

Another election promise that meant nothing.

Light rail is becoming an increasingly difficult problem for the Government with no business case, no firm costings and confusing messages about what the priority city to airport line is for – fast transport to the airport, relieving bus congestion in the city or a catalyst for intensification.

Two years in and there is no cost, no route, no mode and not even a sense of what it is intended for. This is a level of incompetence hard to achieve.

Stuff reports:

Lollies, chippies and high sugar products should have to come in plain packs like cigarettes, the Northland District Health Board says.

It made the call in a position statement aimed at influencing policy in Northland and the rest of the country.

It was trying to fight an “obesegenic environment,” a society that makes it easier for people to make bad health decisions, it said.

DHB chief executive Nick Chamberlain said healthy foods were at an unfair disadvantage compared with foods in bright packaging aimed at influencing children and families.

These people really are demented. They think anything they disapprove of, should not allow to be advertised, or even packaged. God forbid they ever win with their visions for a joyless society.

So what are high sugar products they they want in plain packaging. It would include:

• Yoghurt
• Tomato sauce
• Fruit Juice
• Pasta sauce
• Honey
• Chocolate
• Coffee
• Breakfast Cereals
• Salad dressings
• Bread
• Soups

Next step will be for them to have an approved list of foods, and you can’t buy any non approved food item.

Stuff have published their 2019 political awards. They include:

• Rookie on the rise: National MP Hamish Walker has a long career ahead of him. This year he made a lot of political hay over the downgrading of the Lumsden Maternity Centre, to such a point that he entered the preferred prime minister polls. Not bad for a guy who was only elected in 2017.
• Backbencher of the year: National MP Nicola Willis, for the second year running. This year Willis, a former staffer for John Key, ran a strong campaign against Julie Anne Genter over Wellington transport. One to watch. 
• Party leader of the year: Simon Bridges began the year with the rot of the Jami-Lee Ross saga hanging over him, and the airing of real questions over his leadership. He’s put those questions to bed and has kept the party vote up in the polls.
• Politician of the year: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had a year for the history books. Her response to Christchurch hit the exact right note – not just rhetorically but also legislatively. It was not a perfect year but it’s unlikely to be one she will ever top.

So National MPs got rookie of the year, backbencher of the year and party leader of the year. Not bad. And I wouldn’t quibble with Ardern getting politician of the year on the basis of her response to Christchurch.

The Herald editorial:

All previous elections in our living memory, even those under MMP, have produced a government led by the party with the most votes.

When National was in this position on election night, 2017, convention gave its supporters good reason to celebrate as they did. And when Winston Peters’ party defied convention, many National supporters felt cheated.

If there is a reason National is still polling as high as it was on election night this might be it. It is hard to see any other reason.

Isn’t this telling about how out of touch segments of the media are.

The entire editorial team of the NZ Herald can’t work out why National is still polling so well. They can’t conceive of a single reason except pique that Winston chose Labour.

They should get outside Albert Street and talk to some people in the provinces.

The Times of Israel reports:

The Paris Appeals Court on Thursday upheld a lower court ruling that a Muslim man who killed his Jewish neighbour will not face trial because he was too high on marijuana to control his actions.

The court relieved Kobili Traore, 29, of criminal responsibility for his slaying of Sarah Halimi, whom Traore pummelled for about an hour while shouting about Allah and calling her a demon before throwing the 60-year-old physician to her death from the window of her third-story apartment. It did say that the killing was partly because of antisemitism.

Partly?

But Traore, whom Halimi’s daughter said once called her a “dirty Jew” on the building’s staircase, “does appear to have voluntarily ended the life of Sarah Halimi,” the court also said. It retained the aggravated element of a hate crime in the indictment against Traore, but determined it would not go to trial because Traore was not fully aware of his actions on the night of April 3, when he killed Halimi, according to the court.

He was high, so hey no trial.

The appeals court’s decision “marks the advent of a policy that gives impunity to antisemitic murder in France, EUJF, the French-Jewish student association, wrote Thursday on Twitter.

The European Jewish Congress (EJC) branded the decision “scandalous”, with Dr. Moshe Kantor, President, saying it “opens the door to large-scale impunity”.

“The court has sent a message to criminals that they will be able to walk free from the most heinous crimes by taking illegal substances.”

A truly awful decision. The drug use should be a factor in sentence, not in guilt.

The headline is:

Harassment rife at fast food giant

But is it? The story states:

Half of all Restaurant Brand workers who responded to a survey said they’d been personally affected or witness to sexual harassment at work.

Sounds massive. But who did the survey and how many responded?

The Unite union poll was inspired by a Stuff #metooNZ investigation into rape, assaults and harassment of KFC and Pizza Hut workers around the country, and was sent out to 9000 current and former union-affiliated Restaurant Brands workers the following day.

So the survey went out to 9,000 people who were union members.

The survey, which attracted 168 responses, showed assaults and harassment were not restricted by gender

So fewer than 2% even took part. That is an incredibly low response rate. It might suggest that the 98% did not respond as they did not see a problem. The survey is very self selecting and unrepresentative.

Of the 168 responses, 25 percent said they had been a victim of sexual harassment while at work.

Another 25 per cent said they had witnessed or been reliably informed of a co-worker being the victim of sexual harassment or assault.

Those who witnesses harassment may overlap those who said they were victims.

So the only hard stat we have is 42 people out of 9,000 said they were a victim of sexual harassment.

Is this rife? Is this higher or lower than any other employer?

The intent is not to minimise the harm caused by any employees who were harassed. Such behaviour should not happen. But to examine whether the headline and story are fair to Restaurant Brands.

Some fascinating research from Pew on views in the US on higher education (universities).

• Net effect (positive less negative) on US of universities is +12%, down from +34% in 2012.
• Republicians views in 2012 were net +18% and now -26%
• 38% say universities system going in right direction and 61% wrong direction
• 54% say students are being too protected from views they may find offensive
• 59% say universities are politically skewed
• 73% are against race or ethnicity being used as a factor in admissions

Very clear that in the US, universities have gone downhill in terms of reputation

Sad reading in this 200 page report about Amnesty International. When I was at university I was a big supporter of AI. They were politically neutral in all respects and did a great job in supporting political prisoners etc around the world.

Today they have sadly become captured by partisan activists and this report captures how Amnesty staffers have called Israel to be wiped out and praised Islamic terrorists. They have a non-trivial number of staff who are basically pro-terrorists.

They also have a toxic workplace culture where after two suicides, a study found 39% of staff developed health issues due to working at Amnesty.

May all of you have a loving and relaxing Christmas.

1. Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
2. Episode IV: A New Hope (1977)
3. Episode VII: The Force Awakens (2015)
4. Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (1983)
5. Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
6. Rogue One (2016)
7. Solo (2018)
8. Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005)
9. Episode VIII: The Last Jedi (2017)
10. Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002)
11. Star Wars Holiday Special (1978)
12. Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)

So yes I enjoyed Episode IX. Well worth seeing, despite the critics.

How would you rank the 12 films?

Also people might enjoy on 2015 blog post on 20 pieces of Star Wars trivia.

The Spinoff had 13 people nominate three champs and flops for 2019. It was interesting to look at those who received multiple nominations, suggesting a near consensus.

Champs

• Jacinda Ardern (9)
• Simon Bridges (5)
• James Shaw (5)
• David Seymour (4)

Flops

• Phil Twyford (6)
• Winston Peters (2)
• Shane Jones (2)

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2020:

1. NZ First will not make 5% in the 2020 election
2. ACT will gain at least a second MP.
3. By the end of 2020 (after three years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
4. National will win more electorate seats in 2020 than 2017
5. The End of Life Choice Bill referendum will pass
6. The Cannabis legalisation referendum will fail
7. No new political party will enter Parliament in 2020
8. The Government’s 2019/20 accounts will breach their Fiscal Responsibility Rules
9. The Government will scrap the Fiscal Responsibility Rules
10. Brexit will occur on 31 January 2020
11. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 will be the same or higher than September 2019
12. James Shaw will have a leadership challenge but win
13. Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary
14. Donald Trump will win re-election if the nominee is Warren or Sanders but lose to Biden or Buttigieg or Bloomberg
15. Rebecca Long-Bailey will replace Jeremy Corbun as UK Labour Leader
16. There won’t be a firm commitment to shift the Ports of Auckland to Northland, even though NZ First will pretend there is.
17. Shane Jones will stand in Northland and lose.
18. Jacinda Ardern will get married before the general election
19. The Government will back the proposed NZME/Stuff merger to the Commerce Commission
20. Parliament will not vote to restore voting rights to some prisoners before the 2020 election

In December 2018 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2018 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2019 go?

1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019. Were at or below 4% in 6/9 polls. 1/1
2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party. Their website logo is “ACT for freedom” so 0.5/1
3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. They are at 0.3% for houses and 2.5% for trees so 1/1
4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019. Nuk Korako retired so 1/1
5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum. 1/1
6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019. Twyford sacked as Housing Minister but not from Ministry so 0.5/1
7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019. Dropped 0.75 so 0/1
8. A new political party will be registered in 2019. Welcome to Sustainable NZ and Vision NZ. 1/1
9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll. They made 0.9% so 0/1
10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18. The 17/18 surplus was $5.5b. The 2019 Budget was for $3.5b (and is now projected to be a deficit) so 1/1
11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax. 1/1
12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia. Glad to be wrong and 0/1
13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019. 1/1
14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2018. It was 4.2% compared to 4.0% so 1/1
15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. Tempted to give myself a half mark as they hide him whenever he is meant to be Acting PM but technically still there even though Robbo is the de facto Deputy Leader. 0/1
16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down. Yep 1/1
17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure. Nope so 0/1
18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government. Got that right 1/1
19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet. Also 1/1
20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019. Not bad for back in December 2018 – 1/1

So all up 14/20 – happy with that.

Radio NZ has an article on the “turnardern” campaign.

I think the campaign is puerile and silly.

But equally silly is this reaction from the author of the Ardern book:

“Throughout history, attempts have been made to silence women. We’ve been drowned as witches, denied the vote, gaslighted in relationships, had our ideas stolen in meetings, had our voices and views disbelieved and minimised. We’ve been done to, not done by,” she said.

“Seen in this light, #TurnArdern is just another manifestation of this simmering hatred of women that lies just beneath the surface.

Comparing a campaign of turning books around in a bookshop to drowning witches is even sillier than the actual campaign.

In fact the only violence associated with the campaign is against the guy who started it who has had his address doxed and online death threats.