Shane Jones electoral record

Later today Winston will announce Shane Jones is his candidate for Whangarei. This is a smart move by NZ First as it does give them a potential successor to Winston. However neither Ron Mark nor Tracey Martin will be wanting Jones to become Deputy Leader so it will be a very interesting caucus dynamic.

Some will claim that Jones will win Whangarei. So to assess how likely this is, I thought it would be useful to look at how he has done in the three elections he has stood in:

  • 2005 – got 24% of the electorate vote in Northland
  • 2008 – got 29% of the electorate vote in Northland
  • 2011 – got 34% of the electorate vote in Tamaki Makarau

By comparison Shane Reti won Whangarei in 2014 with 55% of the electorate vote.

Computational thinking for school curriculum

The Herald reports:

“Computational thinking” and “designing and developing digital outcomes” will become part of New Zealand’s core curriculum for all children in the first 10 years of school from next year.

Prime Minister Bill English and Education Minister Nikki Kaye visited Newmarket School in Auckland today to unveil a $40 million package to retrain teachers and help schools implement the new curriculum subjects, including a “national digital championship” modelled on an Israeli example.

“All young people from Years 1 to 10 will take part in digital technologies learning,” Kaye said.

“Students [in Years 11 to 13] choosing digital technologies pathways for NCEA will develop the more specialised skills that industry partners say are in high demand, through new achievement standards being developed for NCEA Levels 1, 2 and 3.”

Sounds good. Very much needed.

Kaye said the $40 million support package would include $24 million to “upskill” more than 40,000 teachers.

The kids often know more than the teachers!

There will also be around $330,000 in $1000 scholarships from the Ministry of Youth Development, to support young people to develop innovative enterprises, including products or businesses, that have a digital focus.

Kid entrepreneurs. I love it. The best antidote to socialism is innovation.

Peace in Colombia

The Guardian reports:

Colombia’s Farc rebels, who once terrorized the country with kidnaps, killings and attacks on towns, have ended half a century of armed insurgency at low-key ceremony in which the United Nations certified that more than 7,000 guerrillas had turned over their weapons.

“Farewell to arms, farewell to war, welcome to peace,” said the Farc’s top leader Rodrigo Londoño, to a cheering crowd of former combatants at the ceremony in Mesetas, a mountainous area in south-eastern Colombia.

“Today doesn’t end the existence of the Farc; it ends our armed struggle,” said Londoño, best known by his nom de guerre Timochenko. The Farc plan to launch a legal political party in August.

“Today is a special day, the day when weapons are exchanged for words,” said President Juan Manuel Santos, who was awarded the 2016 Nobel Peace prize for his efforts to secure a deal with the Farc to end their part in a 53-year armed conflict that has left an estimated 250,000 dead, tens of thousands of people missing and forced millions from their home.

There are a lot of armed conflicts in the world. It is nice when they end peacefully as has happened in Colombia, and not that long ago also in Sri Lanka.

Homosexual convictions bill introduced

Amy Adams announced:

A Bill to allow historical convictions for homosexual offences to be removed will help put right a wrong from the past, says Justice Minister Amy Adams.

The Criminal Records (Expungement of Convictions for Historical Homosexual Offences) Bill was introduced to Parliament today.

“The tremendous hurt and stigma suffered by those who were affected can never be fully undone, but I hope that this Bill will go some way toward addressing that,” says Ms Adams.

“This Bill introduces the first ever expungement scheme in New Zealand. It will allow men convicted of specific homosexual offences decriminalised by the Homosexual Law Reform Act 1986 to apply to have the convictions wiped from their criminal record.

“Allowing historical convictions for homosexual offences to remain on a person’s criminal record perpetuates the stigma which such convictions carry. A person can be further disadvantaged if they are required to disclose their conviction or it appears on a criminal history check.”

This is a good thing.

You need to be careful when dealing with historic convictions. Generally just because something is now legal, doesn’t mean those convicted of an offence when it was illegal should lose their conviction. For example the speed limit used to be 80 km/hr. It is now 100 km/hr. If you were fined for driving at 90 km/hr that doesn’t mean raising the limit to 100 km/hr should see that fine disappear.

But that analogy does not apply to this case. People were convicted for something that never should have been a crime – private adult consensual sexual activity. The only way a gay person could have not broken the law was to remain celibate for their entire life. That was and is an unreasonable burden to place on people.

It is unfair that someone convicted under this law should still have a conviction which could affect their ability to travel etc.

So hopefully it will pass through Parliament with strong support.

No Scotexit for now

The Guardian reports:

Nicola Sturgeon has abandoned her demands for a new independence referendum before the Brexit deal is signed, after her party lost a string of seats to pro-union parties in the general election.

Admitting she needed to “reset” her referendum strategy, the first minister told Holyrood she accepted there was no widespread support in Scotland for a second vote on independence before the UK leaves the EU.

Sturgeon said her priority now was to focus on getting the best Brexit deal possible, leaving the timescale for staging a new referendum deliberately vague. She implied she wanted to hold it before the next Holyrood election in 2021, adding that her party had a clear mandate to do so at some point.

This is a good thing. You need to see what happens with Brexit before Scotland can make a sensible decision on whether to stay in the UK.

If Scotland was not in the UK, then the 2017 election results would have been:

  • Conservative 318 305
  • Labour 262 255
  • SNP 35 0
  • Lib Dems 12 8
  • DUP 10
  • Sinn Fein 7
  • Plaid Cymru 4
  • Greens 1
  • Total 650 591

A majority of 591 would be 296 so the Conservatives would be able to govern alone.

Trump gets a partial win

Stuff reports:

The US Supreme Court handed a victory to President Donald Trump by allowing his temporary bans on travellers from six Muslim-majority countries and all refugees to go into effect for people with no connection to the United States while agreeing to hear his appeals in the closely watched legal fight.

The court, which narrowed the scope of lower court rulings that had completely blocked his March 6 executive order, said on Monday (Tuesday NZ Time) it would hear arguments on the legality of one of Trump’s signature policies in his first months as president in the court’s next term, which starts in October.

The justices granted parts of his administration’s emergency request to put the order into effect immediately while the legal battle continues.

The court said that the travel ban will go into effect “with respect to foreign nationals who lack any bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States.” …

Three of the court’s conservatives said they would have granted Trump’s request in full, including Trump appointee Neil Gorsuch.

The decision to overturn parts of the lower court injunctions was unanimous, which is significant.

The three Justices who said they would have stayed the injunctions in full are Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch.

Australian Greens civil war

The SMH reports:

Rogue Greens senator Lee Rhiannon could soon be expelled from the party after all nine of her federal colleagues made a formal complaint about her conduct during recent school funding negotiations.

But Senator Rhiannon’s hardline factional supporters have hit back at party leader Richard Di Natale and his allies, calling on them to retract the complaint and hinting at retaliation if it goes any further.

Rhiannon is from the communist faction within the Greens and is very unpopular with her peers. But she has a lot of grassroots support so if they expel her there will be repercussions.

If there is a plastic bag tax, better the money goes to charity

Stuff reports:

Facing growing calls from local government and even from within the National Party for government leadership on the issue of single-use plastic bags, new Associate Environment Minister Scott Simpson looks likely to opt for a levy rather than a ban – and that could be good news for local charities. …

But Simpson told a break-out meeting of delegates at this weekend’s National Party conference that he likes the UK model, where retailers charge shoppers a small fee for plastic bags and keep the money themselves to distribute to charities of their choice. …

“There are a variety of models around the world but I quite like … the model they use in the UK which is you are charged a levy. It is 5p a bag, so it’s not a ban but if you want a plastic bag at the supermarket you pay for it – 5p.

​”Now, the trick that they do – which again seems to be working quite well for them – is that that 5p doesn’t go to the Government, it doesn’t go to the council, it doesn’t sort of disappear into the big consolidated fund.

“The retailer keeps that 5p and then the retailer then distributes that money to charitable causes of their choice. And there is a self-auditing process, and certainly it was my experience when visiting the UK that actually the model seemed, on the face of it, to be working quite well.”

I’m not convinced of the merits of a tax on plastic bags, but if there is to be one I’d much rather the revenue goes to charities rather than to central or local Government. That at least reassures the tax is being done for environmental reasons, rather than just as another way to raise revenue.

Foster for NZ First?

Stuff reports:

Wellington City Councillor Andy Foster is eyeing up a seat in Parliament with NZ First.

It is unclear whether the Onslow-Western ward councillor will chase the nomination for a Wellington-based seat or simply try to enter Parliament on the party list.

When asked if he was interested in joining Winston Peters’ party, Foster replied: “I won’t say I am not” but confirmed that at this point, he was not a candidate.

Foster, who was a failed Wellington mayoral candidate last year, said there was still a process to go through to get nominated for NZ First, which would likely happen at the party’s convention in July.

I thought the process was Winston hands the Party Secretary a list.

Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson said he welcomed all competitors.

“If he decides to run in this race, we will welcome him in.”

He knew Foster, and said it was a surprise that he would throw his hat in the ring.

Foster has previously expressed interest in running for Labour and National, Robertson said.

Andy was in fact a researcher for National in the 1990s.

Who is the mystery donor?

Stuff reports:

McCarten’s original plan was to have union funding, but it seems that was not forthcoming.

A big donor did back the plan, but their identity has not been released to the party or to the public.

Little said the party had disclosure obligations, both in terms of donors and spending. The party was dealing with that.

The campaign was a campaign to get votes for Labour. It used the Labour brand to recruit people and we have evidence that some of those recruited were going work directly for Labour in electorates like Auckland Central or making videos.

I believe the donation to the campaign was an effective donation to Labour and if over $15,000 (I hear it is well over $100,000) needs to be declared to the Electoral Commission.

The whisper I have heard is that the identity of the donor will cause huge embarrassment as the donor is an entity funded by the taxpayer to provide social services.

I look forward to Labour revealing who the donor is. It’s ridiculous to claim they don’t know when the entire campaign was run by Labour party staff and officers.

Creepy

Stuff reports:

The .22 rifle used to kill the Bain family will be returned to David Bain through his longtime advocate Joe Karam despite objections from surviving family.

In one of the last throes of the 23-year Bain murder saga, the case’s 200-odd exhibits, including the rifle and David Bain’s bloody gloves, T-shirt and socks are being disposed of by the Crown. …

The distribution of the exhibits, which have various owners, was initiated by a request last year from Dunedin lawyer Colin Withnall QC, acting for Joe Karam, who was acting for David Bain.

The most emotionally-laden exhibit was the semi-automatic Winchester rifle with a telescopic sight and a silencer, which belonged to Bain and was kept in his wardrobe cupboard under trigger lock with about 1000 rounds of ammunition before the shootings.

The request caused some “soul searching”, according to sources, but finally Crown Law decided it had no legal grounds on which to keep the rifle and other articles belonging to Bain.

My response to this is WTF!

According to David Bain his father slaughtered his entire family with this gun, before killing himself. And he wants to keep it as a souvenir!

Other items to be returned to David Bain include the bloody white gloves allegedly used by the killer, his T-shirt, socks and underpants, and items from his bedroom. He will receive his Telstar running shoes, red anorak, a red sweatshirt and items from his bedroom.

More delightful souvenirs.

If you accept the Bain version of events, why would you want souvenirs or reminders of that day?

The psychology of prison marriages

Stuff reports:

Notorious murderer Liam Reid is set to marry his disgraced lawyer Davina Murray in prison on Tuesday.

Reid is serving a life sentence for the 2007 rape and murder of deaf Christchurch woman Emma Agnew and the rape and attempted murder of a Dunedin student a few days later.

Murray smuggled an iPhone, cigarettes and a lighter to Reid in Mt Eden prison in 2011, while acting as his lawyer.

She has previously said she and Reid fell in love when he was her client, leading to her smuggling a phone and tobacco to him in prison. 

She defended herself in the Auckland District Court where she was rebuked by Judge Russell Collins for her bizarre defence tactics including repeatedly talking over the judge and witnesses, emailing demands to the registrar, and laughing and grinning at the media.

In 2015 she was struck off as a lawyer after a disciplinary committee heard of her “concerning and worrying” history of unsatisfactory conduct. 

Lawyers and Conveyancers Disciplinary Tribunal chairwoman Judge Dale Clarkson said Murray’s behaviour was of “such a serious level” that no response short of being struck off would be a proper one. 

It is bizarre and some what sickening to see someone throw away their career for such a repugnant criminal.

You wonder why anyone would want to marry a convicted murderer and rapist, let alone one that may well never be freed.

But there has been quite a few studies done into this phenomenon as it is more common than many realise.

It seems the major factors are:

  • A prisoner can’t cheat on you (well not with other women)
  • A prisoner becomes so reliant on you, it makes you feel special
  • You think you can redeem them
  • The prisoner convinces you that you are the only thing that keeps them going
  • A prisoner is less likely to be judgmental of you
  • As contact is limited, you feel the time with the prisoner is more special

Doesn’t make it any less sad though.

Only $4.6 billion a year

Stuff reports:

New Zealand First is promising to wipe student loans for new students who stay and work in the country for five years, and it says that it will only cost $4.6b a year.

Only cost $4.6 billion a year.

Just imagine what the cost will be if there is a Labour/Green/NZ First Government. That surplus will disappear faster than the Flash, and it will be borrow, borrow and hope.

Tertiary Education Minister Paul Goldsmith had similar misgivings – and didn’t trust the NZ First costings.

“The universal student allowance alone could cost an additional billion dollars per year,” Goldsmith said.

“Our approach is to provide most students with interest-free student loans to contribute to their living costs, and to target student allowances only to those most in need.

“We know that graduates go on to earn around 40 per cent above the median income and that the median repayment time for New Zealand-based students is just under 6.5 years.

The NZ First policy (and Labour’s) is an appalling bribe taking money off taxpayers and giving it to the most privileged in society. They claim to care about inequality yet they want to spend billions more on the most well off.

Universities NZ research has found:

New Zealand university graduates earn between $1.3-$4 million more over their careers than a non-graduate after their costs of study are taken into account.

Taxpayers already fund around 70% of the cost of tertiary study. NZ First and Labour (and probably Greens) want taxpayers to fund 100% which is bonkers. Tertiary education produces both public and private benefits which is why both taxpayers and students should contribute towards it.

Lorde hits No 1

The Herald reports:

Lorde has narrowly secured her first number one album, with her new album Melodrama making its debut in the top spot of the Billboard 200 chart today.

She scored the top spot by just 3000 album sales over her nearest competitor, rapper 2 Chainz.

The news was confirmed today by Billboard magazine, with the magazine reporting Melodrama secured 109,000 album units in the first week after release.

The achievement makes Lorde the first-ever Kiwi artist to top the Billboard 200 chart. New Zealand-born country singer Keith Urban has topped the chart twice, but is an Australian-American citizen.

 

Melodrama is her first No. 1 album in America. Despite her first album Pure Heroine earning more copies in its first week with 129,000 units, it debuted and peaked at No. 3 in 2013.

When you consider how tiny our population is, I’m always amazed and delighted when Kiwis dominate globally. And to top the US Billboard 200 is a huge achievement.

Huge support for medical use of cannabis by all party’s voters

In July and August 2016 Curia did some polling for the NZ Drug Foundation to establish views of New Zealanders on a number of scenarios relating to cannabis, ranging from commercial sale of cannabis, personal growth or use and growing or using for medical reasons such as pain alleviation or terminal illness.

The specific questions for the medical use was:

  • Growing and/or using cannabis for any medical reasons such as to alleviate pain
  • Growing and/or using cannabis for medical reasons if you have a terminal illness

They were asked in this situation whether such an activity should be legal, illegal or decriminalised (an offence but only punishable by fine).

The topline findings were:

  • Pain relief – 63% legal, 16% decriminalised, 16% illegal.
  • Terminal illness – 66% legal, 16% decriminalised, 15% illegal.

This is massive support. Around four out of every five voters wants there to be no criminal sanction for the medical use of cannabis. Only one in six think it should be illegal, as the law currently stands. Note this is about cannabis itself, not medical drugs based on cannabis. It was specifically on whether using or growing for medical reasons should be legal.

What was also fascinating was how even this support was across all party’s supporters. The percentage who favoured it being either legal or decrimalised was:

  • National supporters 75% (pain relief) and 77% (terminal illness)
  • Labour supporters 85% and 87%
  • Maori Party supporters 82% and 90%
  • NZ First supporters 78% and 79%
  • Green Party supporters 92% and 93%
  • Swinging voters 78% and 81%

As people will know a bill making it legal to possess or grow cannabis for medical reasons has been drawn out of the ballot and will be voted on in this Parliament or the next one.

I really really hope as many MPs as possible vote for it at first reading. A select committee is the ideal place to work out details such as how best to make cannabis available to people suffering from terrible pain (do you allow them to grow their own, or do you have some sort of shop they can buy it from). But voting against the bill even going to select committee would be massively tone deaf to the vast majority of New Zealanders who don’t want terminally ill New Zealanders to be forced to become criminals in order to have effective pain relief.

Perfect is the enemy of good. No members’ bill is perfect, but unless the bill is fatally flawed, it should proceed to a select committee where expert advice can be submitted on how best to have a regime where those in pain can legally get effective relief, but also minimising the ability of people to game the system.

NZ wins the Americas Cup

Emirates Team New Zealand have done it and won the America’s Cup off Oracle Team USA.

This feels more special than when we won it the first time, as Oracle had all but rigged the competition to favour them. I genuinely thought it was unwinnable but Peter Burling and the entire team really were magnificent.

Burling is only 26 years old. Boy does he have a bright future ahead of him.

The outcome of the nine races were:

  1. NZ wins by 30 seconds
  2. NZ wins by 88 seconds
  3. NZ wins by 49 seconds
  4. NZ wins by 72 seconds
  5. NZ wins by 124 seconds
  6. US wins by 11 seconds
  7. NZ wins by 12 seconds
  8. NZ wins by 30 seconds
  9. NZ wins by 55 seconds

Can’t wait for the victory parades!

Also looking forward to Team NZ changing the rules so it is a fairer competition. Yes we still managed to win, but when we defend the Cup I’d like many more challengers.

Cartoon of the Day

NZIER says focus on social mobility not inequality

NZIER released:

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has today released a new Insight titled “Peak Inequality – New Zealand’s False Truth”. The Insight is based on new data and shows that despite popular opinion, income inequality in New Zealand hasn’t changed in the past 20 years, and it’s been at the current level before.

Derek Gill, a Principal Economist from NZIER, said “The data tells us that our current level of income inequality is actually the same as it was in the 1930s and 1940s. A real concern is poverty and how this leads to reduced social mobility. Social mobility is not necessarily related to income inequality.”

NZIER are absolutely right. What we should care about is helping families so they don’t spend their lives  in poverty. But that is very different to inequality which is comparing the wages of a 16 year old unskilled shop assistant to a 45 year old professional and complaining they are not the same.

Gill would like to see the debate focus more on poverty and how that limits social mobility. In a place where social mobility is limited, people stay poor and have very few opportunities to improve their situation.

Yep which is why social investment strategies are so important – spend money early on to give them opportunities.

Their paper includes this chart. So powerful. If there is a Labour/Green Government at some stage I predict the number of articles will fall away again.

So not only has inequality not increased in the last 25 years, it is at the same level as the 1950s and before.

Whether inequality is a problem depends upon how you come at the issue. It is hard to find any people who think inequality is good. Equally it is hard to find any anyone who thinks all inequalities are bad. Adding additional surgeons and other highly skilled people to the workforce would increase inequality. But most Kiwis would see
that as a good thing. It is important to understand what factors have driven any changes in inequality to understand whether these are ‘good’ or ‘bad’.

A key point.

 

Campaign for a new National Park

The ODT reports:

High country land near Queenstown, including the Remarkables, needs to be made into a national park, Federated Mountain Clubs (FMC) says.

The organisation today launched its Remarkable Outdoors campaign headlined by a proposed new national park – ‘The Remarkables National Park’ in the Otago Southland high-country near Queenstown.

FMC President Peter Wilson said the proposed park was a long-held dream of conservationists and recreationalists, notably Sir Alan Mark, who was one of the first to see the beauty and the botanical richness in our high-country tussock landscapes.

The proposed park would span a vast area of Otago Southland including the watersheds of the Wye, Nevis, Waikaia and Pomahaka rivers, the iconic Remarkables Mountain Range, along with the Hector / Tapuae o Uenuku, Garvie, Old Man / Kopuwai and Old Woman ranges.

It is an incredibly beautiful area.

He said it was the third time conservationists had tried to get the area classified as a national park. “Tramping as a core sport is booming for Kiwis, so is hunting, so is fishing,” he said. “So what we are seeing is a huge re-emergence of New Zealanders’ interest in the outdoors. So we think now is the time to put that centre stage and ask politicians to establish a new national park.”

If it has been turned down twice before, I wonder why? What is the argument against?

US to become a net energy exporter

Bloomberg reports:

Donald Trump will tout surging U.S. exports of oil and natural gas during a week of events aimed at highlighting the country’s growing energy dominance.

The president also plans to emphasize that after decades of relying on foreign energy supplies, the U.S. is on the brink of becoming a net exporter of oil, gas, coal and other energy resources. …

“The fact that we’re no longer in the age of energy scarcity — that we’re in the age of energy abundance — positions the United States in a totally different place,” said Dave Banks, a special assistant to the president for international energy. “This gives access to affordable, reliable energy in the United States, and gives the U.S. a major competitive advantage.”

This is pretty remarkable. For decades the US has been critically dependent on importing energy sources such as oil. And within a short period of time they have gone from critically dependent to becoming a net exporter.

Also worth recalling is all the doomsday prophets such as the Greens who insisted the world had reached peak oil and we were facing decades of energy scarcity. They were totally wrong.

America’s Cup Day 4

Today

  • Race 7 – NZ win by 12 seconds
  • Race 8 – NZ win by 30 seconds

Overall

  • NZ won 7 lost 1
  • US won 1 lost 7

Points

  • NZ 6
  • US 1

You need 7 points to win so it may be over tomorrow. But we all know that no matter how big our lead, it is never over until someone wins. So fingers crossed.

Incidentally if it were not for the rule inserted by Oracle having the non-winner of the round robin start at -1, we would have won it today!