Do you recall Grant Robertson saying the surplus would be a one off?

Steven Joyce reports:

As a result of our country’s economic performance, in 2016/17 the New Zealand Government has achieved its third fiscal surplus in a row.

Core Crown tax revenue was $75.6 billion for the 2016/17 year, up 7.4 percent from the previous year with all major tax types increasing, reflecting the growth in the economy. Increases in the number of people in employment and profitability of businesses are key drivers to this growth in revenue. As a percentage of nominal GDP core Crown tax revenue increased to 28.2 percent, up from 27.8 percent.

Core Crown expenses continued to fall as a percentage of GDP from 29.2 percent in 2015/16 to 28.5 percent in 2016/17. In nominal terms increases in social assistance expenses and the incremental spending announced in Budget 2016 contributed core Crown expenses of $76.3 billion (up $2.4 billion from 2015/16).

Costs associated with the Kaikōura earthquakes added to expenses in 2016/17, with EQC estimating claims will cost nearly $0.6 billion and another $0.2 billion recognised so far on the rail and road transport links. Additional expenditure is expected in 2017/18 as work on the transport infrastructure continues.

With revenue growing at a faster rate than expenses, the operating balance before gains and expenses (OBEGAL) in 2016/17 reached $4.1 billion, an increase of $2.2 billion since 2015/16 and ahead of expectations.

A $4.1 billion surplus is impressive, as almost no other country in the OECD is even back in surplus.

However if Winston picks Labour and Greens expect those deficits to return pretty quick.

Following on from the positive core Crown operating result, the Crown recorded a residual cash surplus, leading to a decline in nominal net core Crown debt for the first time since 2008 to $59.5 billion (22.2 percent of GDP). This is a decline of $2.4 billion from 2015/16.

Great – finally paying debt off.

Goff’s inaction on Auckland Council salaries

The Herald reports:

One in five staff at Auckland Council is earning more than $100,000 as the wages bill for the Super City blows out for the third year in a row.

What’s more, the number of executives earning more than $200,000 has increased by 25 per cent in the past year, from 155 to 194, according to figures in the council’s 2016-2017 annual report.

The council and its six council-controlled organisations(CCOs) employ 11,893 staff, of whom 2322 earn more than $100,000.

Brisbane City Council – often compared to Auckland Council – employs about 8000 staff, of whom 149 earn more than A$100,000.

So 1.9% of Brisbane City Council staff earn over $100,000 while 19.5% of Auckland Council staff earn over $100,000. That’s ten times as many. This is beyond outrageous.

In fact more staff at Auckland Council earn over $200,000 than Brisbane City Council staff earn over $100,000.

In the past three years, the wages bill at Auckland Council has blown out by tens of millions of dollars each year. Council set a budget of $811m in the past year and spent $853m on wages.

The $42m increase gobbles up $1.8m in savings from a big restructure of libraries, $13.5m in new revenue from Mayor Phil Goff’s “bed tax”, and more. The increase would comfortably pay for the new $35m bus and train interchange at Manukau.

Goff, who has promised to cut fat at council, said he was surprised at the big increase in $200,000-plus pay packets and had asked council chief executive Stephen Town for an explanation. He also wanted a rundown on how salaries are set and benchmarked against other public-sector bodies.

I’m sorry but who has been Mayor for the last year? Who claimed he was going to trim the fat but has seen as explosion in large salaries. And now all he can do is ask for an explanation!

The Mayor proposes the budget. He merely has to cap or reduce the budget for staffing and the CE has to comply with the budget cap.

Councillor Mike Lee said the failure to stay within the wages budget was a scandal.

“Council senior staff have always been diligent in budgeting very generous pay increases for themselves but it seems even this is not enough.

“Auckland ratepayers simply cannot afford this level of fleecing and are reaching the limits of their tolerance,” Lee said.

Well on this Mike Lee is quite right.

Rob Hosking on why there will be no teal deal

Rob Hosking writes:

This brings us back to the talk of the Teal Deal between the Greens and National.

It won’t happen. It would split the Greens.

And that’s because too many Green members’ sense of their own personal identity seems wrapped up in their politics, which is less about “green” issues as such, and more about being pure and unsullied and, particularly, not associating with evil “neoliberals.”

And while the term “neoliberal” tends to be so elastic as to be meaningless, it definitely does encompass the National Party – even if most of its members regard the term with a kind of amused bemusement.

It always seemed to me that this was the real, psychological impetus that led former Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei’s political exit before the election.

Being in government involves choices, often messy ones where the options are either disastrous or unpalatable.

It involves compromise and dealing with people you might not otherwise wish to deal with.

And if your self-image is tied up in doing the precise opposite – wrapped up in a sense of your own purity and of being against and, indeed, outside “the system” – then going into government isn’t just a professional challenge: It is a threat to your entire sense of being.

In that sense, Ms Turei’s political demise was not surprising: It was, in fact, inevitable.

And in that self-image of the rebellious wild-eyed loner, standing at the gates of oblivion, she mirrors that of all too many Green Party members.

It is no doubt emotionally satisfying. It is not, though, an outlook that equips you for the responsibilities of government.

Basically it is confirmation that the Greens value their self-image far more than actually achieving any of their policies.

Countdown getting rid of plastic bags

The Herald reports:

Supermarket store Countdown has announced that single-use plastic bags will be removed from its stores and online shopping by the end of next year.

About 350 million plastic bags are set to be removed every year, as supermarkets SuperValue and FreshChoice also commit to becoming single-use plastic-bag free.

“Now is the right time to take the lead, phase-out single-use plastic carrier bags and introduce better options for customers,” Countdown’s managing director Dave Chambers says.

“We have been tracking customer sentiment for two years and our most recent research, concluded in August, indicates that 83 per cent of our customers support phasing out single-use plastic carrier bags.”

People say that in a survey as it makes them feel good. But the fact is around 90% of customers still use the bags, not 17%. It’s like free range eggs. 90% say in surveys they’ll pay more for free range eggs but they make up only 15% or so of sales.

It will be interesting to see what Foodstuffs does.

Rodney says National and Labour should walk away

Rodney Hide writes:

The ultimate coalition winner may well be the party that first cries enough and walks out of negotiations citing an outrageous demand. It would look principled and honourable. And from then on there would only be upside.

It would certainly suit Labour. Jacinda Ardern ran a fantastic campaign to get a truly excellent result. But neither she nor her team appears ready for government. I don’t think the country is quite ready either. A good three years as leader of the opposition would see Ms Ardern grow into the role, prepare her team and ready the country for her leadership.

In three years’ time she won’t have the Winston Peters millstone around her prime ministerial neck.

It would suit the Greens, too. They won’t get much in government, they will have to battle New Zealand First, and they will be tainted by association. They need to win but they need to win a better election.

The next election will be perfect. They will be able to play the honest green broker and campaign in the middle. They can make it plain they’re for the environment, not old politics, and keep their options with both Labour and National open.

This is quite true. Jacinda has a choice of becoming Prime Minister now but a hobbled PM, or waiting three years and leading Labour/Greens to a majority Government. She would be wise to run away from Winston.

Dodging coalition with Mr Peters should also suit the Nats. They have had three good terms. Bill English has been prime minister. He is vindicated with a stunning election night result. But a fourth term with Mr Peters will wreck him and National possibly for years. It would only strengthen Labour and the Greens.

In opposition, National can regroup and refresh. The next generation can be brought forward. The party could be ready to win big in 2020.

Mr Peters has led New Zealand First into government with both National and Labour. Each time produced the same result. Each government was scandal-ridden, Mr Peters didn’t last, and National and Labour were voted out. The first time New Zealand First’s vote collapsed from 13 to 4%; the second time it was dumped out of Parliament.

There’s nothing about Mr Peters’ post-election behaviour to suggest he’s improved with age. Winning the negotiations looks like losing to me.

National would be better to walk away also. They’d be better to go into opposition now on 46% rather than opposition in three years time on 30%.

Guest Post: What exactly is “Maoridom”?

A guest post by David Garrett:

Following the shock defeat of all Maori Party candidates at the recent election, there were lots of comments – from all sides of the commentariat – about how “Maoridom” were affected, and how this mythical beast would feel about what had happened. I have often wondered about this odd construct, which implies that all Maori think alike, and all Maori view all issues – including political issues – in the same way. That surely makes no more sense than referring to “pakehadom”. Grant Robertson and I are both middle aged white men, but other than that,  I have  about as much in common with him as I have with Kim Jong -Un.

So let’s look at “Maoridom” more closely, perhaps by comparing the attitudes and values of  two Maori I know, one very well, the other not so, who coincidentally come from the same rohe, and belong to the same iwi, Ngapuhi. I have chosen Hone Harawira and my good friend Northland Wahine, who posts here often. They are actually  known to each other – and I think Hone is more than a little scared of Wahine.

For a start, Hone is an unashamed racist, and makes no bones about it, whereas  Wahine doesn’t have a racist bone in her body. Wahine mixes easily with all races, and  her youngest son is half pakeha. Remember when Hone famously said he would be most unhappy if his daughter brought home a white boy? I am quite sure – she will no doubt correct me if I am wrong – that Wahine couldn’t give a damn who her boy  brings home when he has discovered girls. And handsome young chap that he is, I’m sure he will have plenty of choice.

Although she is proud of her tribal heritage, and the fact that she is Maori, I don’t believe that NW sees her existence as being dictated by her tribal affiliation. Hone on the other hand is a Ngapuhi first, a Maori second, and – well, I am not  sure he even thinks of himself as  New Zealander at all. Who he is, and what he thinks and believes, is inextricably linked to his tribe and his race.

Politically of course, Hone and NW could not be further apart. As NW has made plain on here, she is a National supporter. I doubt she is actually a member of the party, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she was. She is as appalled by Maori violence – or I should more accurately say violence committed by anyone – against defenceless children as I am.  Wahine took the day off work to protest the sleazy plea bargain that saw the killers of little Moko have their charges downgraded from murder to manslaughter. She told me with disgust that the march to the Manukau District Court was very poorly attended, and she was one of the very few Maori there.

Hone of course wouldn’t be seen dead at such a march; that would mean he would have to acknowledge that the disgraceful and brutal  violence against children was overwhelmingly committed by Maori, and he  might have to do something about it. Speaking of that march, I was one of the 600 who marched in Rotorua on that  dreadfully cold and wet day, the biggest protest ever seen in the town. Many of the marchers were Maori –  from young girls pushing babies in prams to old ladies – however  leaders like Hone were conspicuous by their absence. But I digress.

Wahine has high expectations of all of her children, and is not interested in ANY excuses when one of them disappoints her – especially not the “colonization” excuse that Hone and his ilk trot out for every Maori ill. I wonder if it ever occurs to Hone why,  if all his people’s problems are down to colonization, the stats were so much BETTER fifty years closer to the dreadful event? Because the fact is they were – the gross over-representation of Maori in the crime stats for example is a relatively recent phenomenon; until the end of the 1960’s, Maori were UNDER represented in prison…but again I digress.

So my two comparators could not be more different: in the degrees to which they primarily identify as Maori;  in attitudes to their fellow New Zealanders of a different race; in their political attitudes; in their beliefs about the causes of their people’s many problems.

And surely Hone and Wahine are not unique: I will wager than anyone reading this who mixes closely with Maori – and that is most of us – will know several Hone’s and several Wahines. The major thing they have in common – and perhaps even the only thing – is that they are Maori.

For me, here are two more: Tariana Turia thinks gangs are “just another form of whanau”; my old friend Pauline, with whom I drove taxis 100 years ago, got so irate when the Mongrel Mob or Black Power were featured on the telly that I used to have to turn it off lest she do herself a mischief. And Pauline was a proud Maori too – but from Ngati Porou heritage, so she didn’t think much of Wahine’s lot!

So for me, Maoridom is a nonsense concept. It suggests that all Maori think the same, act the same, and have the same values and prejudices. All of that  is patently and demonstrably untrue, as anyone who knows more than one Maori person from differing backgrounds knows. Perhaps the journos who are so fond of pontificating about “what Maoridom thinks” ought to get out more.

MMP for beginners

Oliver Hartwich writes:

When I am commenting on the New Zealand election, I have an unfair advantage. Having grown up in a country that has been practising MMP for almost seven decades, I am well versed in it. …

Let me give you a few examples of how politics plays out in the country that invented MMP.

The 1976 federal election saw the centre-right Christian Democrats on 48.6%, the Social Democrats on 43.7% and the Free Democrats on 7.9%. The result meant the Christian Democrats were five seats short of a majority (in a Bundestag of 518 MPs).

Yet who won the election? The Social Democrats/Free Democrats coalition under chancellor Helmut Schmidt. They had the numbers – easy as that. And they had clearly stated before the election that they considered themselves a bloc.

Or take Angela Merkel’s first Grand Coalition between her Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats in 2005. In that election campaign, Ms Merkel campaigned for a GST increase by two percentage points. The Social Democrats campaigned against any increase, claiming it was a regressive tax.

In the end, both parties agreed to a Grand Coalition, which was made possible by political arithmetic.

And GST? Well, it went up not by one or two points but by three! Such is the miracle of coalition talks after an election that you can make policy irrespective of what you campaigned on. You can always blame circumstances for any outcome.

This is not a virtue of MMP!

Or take the most recent German election last Sunday. The Bundestag is now fractured, with seven parties organised in six parliamentary factions. And the most likely outcome is a Christian Democrat, Greens and Free Democrat coalition.

In New Zealand terms, this would be the equivalent of Bill English, James Shaw and David Seymour working together. In Germany, nobody thinks this would be outrageous.

There, no coalition is unthinkable. The maxim is that all democratic parties ought to be able to enter into coalitions with each other. And they do.

The Germans are much more mature in their approach. Our immaturity means Winston gets to decide.

If New Zealanders had a bit more experience with MMP, we would interpret last week’s election result differently. We would appreciate the possibility of a Grand Coalition. We would be surprised as to why James Shaw has not called Bill English yet. We would not understand why Winston would need to be part of the next government.

And we would expect the largest party to have the most and the best options of forging a coalition.

Forming a new government is all about the numbers under MMP. Forget parties’ manifestos or histories. They are only bargaining chips in subsequent negotiations.

If New Zealand wants to run under MMP, get used to its machinations. And if that is too Machiavellian for your taste, return to first-past-the-post.

PPTA wants the worst teachers paid $87,000 a year

The Herald reports:

Teacher unions are warning of likely strikes to seek pay rises costing “hundreds of millions of dollars”, including an extra allowance for teaching in areas of expensive housing such as Auckland.

Primary and early childhood teachers in the NZ Educational Institute (NZEI) have voted in Rotorua this morning to hold paid union meetings in the first term of next year to finalise claims for what executive member Liam Rutherford described as a “seismic shift” in pay rates when their current agreements expire next May and June.

Secondary teachers in the Post Primary Teachers Association (PPTA) are also expected to vote in Wellington this afternoon to hold paid union meetings in the first term and to prepare financially for industrial action when their agreement expires next October.

A background paper for PPTA delegates says the top of the basic pay scale needs to jump by 14.5 per cent, from $75,949 to $86,967, to restore top teachers to the same relativity of 81 per cent above the median income of all wage and salary earners that they achieved after their last big pay rise in 2001-02.

The worst teachers in New Zealand get paid the same as the best teachers so the PPTA is saying that the worst teachers should get $87,000 a year, as well as the best.

I say that the best teachers should get $120,000 a year but the worst teachers say just $60,000.

Where do Greens do best for votes?

Coffee the next target

Stuff reports:

Coffee in California is going to be given cigarette treatment if a nonprofit organisation gets its way, and it’s “ridiculous”, a New Zealand expert says.

The organisation has called for coffee to be labelled as having a cancer risk, because of hazardous chemical acrylamide lingering in the cup. 

The suit came from the Council for Education and Research on Toxics (CERT), which claimed companies ignored a law requiring a warning of hazardous chemicals. Acrylamide is produced in small amounts during the coffee roasting process, and is also found in potato chips and French fries. Any food cooked over 120 degrees celsius can contain traces.

Nothing stops these people. First they’ll demand warning labels, then a tax on it. Then advertising restrictions. Then plain packaging.

Different types of coffee have varying concentrations however, depending on how it’s roasted or prepared. 

“They have found that instant coffee appears to be the major culprit. That’s got levels of 200 to 500 parts per billion, and that translates to around about .2 milligrams per kilogram, which is a pretty darn small amount.”

The upper limit for human consumption, according to the US Food and Drink Administration, is .2 micrograms per kilogram of weight, per day, he says. 

“You would have to be drinking essentially half a kilogram of coffee per day, which seems like an awful lot to me.”

It is possible to purge acrylamide from coffee, but that would likely mean coffee would be taken out too. 

“We’re talking such ridiculously low levels, that it seems at those levels it wouldn’t do harm.”

500 grams of coffee a day would mean around 50 cups a day!

200 years of progress

Our World in Data shows how much better the planet is now than 200 years ago. Here’s what has changed in the last 200 years:

  • Proportion in extreme poverty dropped from 94% to 10%
  • Proportion illiterate dropped from 88% to 15%
  • Child mortality rate dropped from 43% to 4%
  • Proportion living in a democracy increased from 0.9% to 56%
  • Proportion with no education dropped from 83% to 14%
  • Vaccination rate gone from 0% to 86%

 

Lorde concert may have been original target

The Herald reports:

The gunman who shot 59 people at a Las Vegas country music concert may have been originally planning an attack at another music festival just one week earlier, the Daily Beastreported.

According to the paper, a senior law enforcement officer claims Stephen Paddock had rented multiple accommodations overlooking the Life Is Beautiful Festival headlined by Kiwi music sensation Lorde.

The source suggested Paddock may have “lost his nerve” or “simply changed his plans” before checking into the Mandalay Bay Hotel just days before he took the lives of 59 people, the Daily Beast reported.

It looks like he was planning this for some time, and just wanted to kill as many people as possible. At this stage there is still no motive.

Destiny charities losing tax exempt status

The Herald reports:

Two of Destiny Church’s biggest charities are reportedly to be stripped of their tax-exempt status by the Department of Internal Affairs.

1 News reported the two charities, which are central to the business operations of the church headed by controversial pastor Brian Tamaki, would be removed from the Charities Register.

Internal Affairs told 1 News today the Destiny International Trust and Te Hahi o Nga Matamua Holdings has been sent a Notice of Intention to Remove from the Register for failing to file the required annual returns.

The charities have 20 working days to object or file the overdue returns or they face being removed from the register.

Both charities were were given a stern warning in December last year after failing to file their annual returns.

 

At the time Destiny Church said the delay was because it was proving difficult to find an auditor.

So this isn’t Destiny being singled out. This is just that they have filed to comply with their legal obligations.

Ethnic population projections

Interesting demographic projections from Stats NZ. The changes projected from 2013 to 2038 are:

New Zealand

  • European from 75% to 66%
  • Maori from 16% to 18%
  • Asian from 12% to 22%
  • Pasifika from 8% to 10%
  • Total Pop from 4.4 million to 5.8 million

Auckland

  • European from 59% to 48%
  • Maori from 11% to 12%
  • Asian from 23% to 38%
  • Pasifika from 15% to 17%
  • Total Pop from 1.5 million to 2.2 million

Wellington

  • European from 78% to 72%
  • Maori from 14% to 17%
  • Asian from 11% to 20%
  • Pasifika from 8% to 10%
  • Total Pop from 487,000 to 566,000

 

Fewer overstayers

The Herald reports:

Immigration New Zealand’s improved border processes and ability to track overseas visitors have significantly reduced overstayers, an immigration expert says.

Overstayer estimates as of end of last year by the agency showed overstayer numbers had nearly halved from around 20,000 a decade ago to 10,894. …

Nearly five and a half million visitors came to New Zealand in the last year, with 2.7 million being non New Zealanders.

A key reason for the significant drop is overstayers was the agency’s improved capabilities to track people and border processes, he said.

Most of the overstayers were previously on a visitor visa (6735), followed by work visa (1981) and student visa (1523).

Immigration said it had also focused on improved security at the border.

In the year to June 30, the agency said 1207 people were denied entry to New Zealand at the border.

This is a good trend. Our proportion of overstayers to visitors seems pretty low, especially compared to other countries I’d say.

Data entry error is not good enough

Stuff reports:

A voting booth that apparently bucked the region’s National leanings had the local farming community scratching their heads.

One farmer said he couldn’t believe the figures. Another said there must have been a mistake.

Turns out they were right.

The Electoral Commission confirmed on Friday that Linkwater, near the Marlborough Sounds, was true blue all along.

The commission’s preliminary results for the rural township showed of the 215 votes, a whopping 123 were for the Māori Party, compared to just 32 for National and 30 for Labour.

But on Friday the commission confirmed there had been a “data entry error” and those 123 votes actually belonged to National.

This is a pretty shocking error. Sure it would have been picked up in the final official count, but that isn’t the point. The Electoral Commission should have built in checks to its system so that data entry errors are picked up before they are published. For example you could require a second independent person to verify a result before it is accepted.

Also to have a party that got 1% of the votes nationwide to score 50% at a polling place should have rung alarm bells. Again, where were the checks?

“Errors like this happen infrequently and processes are in place to pick them up during the official count.”

There should be processes in place to pick them up during the preliminary count.

Could Winston sit on the crossbenches?

Stuff reports:

As coalition talks gear up there are fears Winston Peters may favour a more independent option, supporting neither party, that would leave National’s programme up in the air.

The NZ First leader has never ruled out “sitting on the cross benches”, and his comment that there are nine scenarios open to him suggest that is still a live option.

But he has also emphasised stability, which argues against him abstaining and in favour of a support deal.
He struck a support deal with Labour in 2005 that included ministerial posts, with foreign affairs for himself, despite eschewing the “baubles of office” on the campaign trail. 

As the parties wait for special votes to be returned on October 7 from the September 23 election, after which Peters has pledged to reveal his intentions by writ day on October 12, a “cross benches” arrangement by Peters would likely have only one outcome.

That would be a National minority government, since it has 58 seats to the Labour-Greens 52 in the 120 seat Parliament. While the 380,000 special votes may narrow the gap they are seen as unlikely to close it entirely.

The appeal of sitting on the cross benches is it is all power and no responsibility. You have the swing vote on every piece of legislation and you might bring the Government down at any stage, so they will come grovelling to you to ensure the Budget passes etc. But you have no formal agreement for policies or ministerial positions.

You see this in Canada where there is a convention the largest party is allowed to govern, even without a majority formally committed to it.

So in one sense this is a safe option for NZ First. They are not part of the Government, they are not responsible for anything the Government does, and hence won;t be blamed if the Government is unpopular.

The downside is none of the NZ First MPs get to be Ministers, and they don’t get a specific set of policy wins (but they will get to decide which laws get passed). Also the government is seen as unstable as the pin can be pulled at any time.

If NZ First decided to abstain then it would be a National minority Government. They would win votes in the House by 59 to 52 or 58 to 53. Even after specials the worst case would be 56 to 55 (if ACT was against).

But NZ First could sit on the cross benches but give provisional confidence and supply to a Labour-Greens Government. It could be done without abstaining.

Worst mass shooting in US

The Herald reports:

The man suspected of opening fire at concertgoers attending a country music festival in Las Vegas last night was a local resident with no prior criminal convictions in the state of Nevada.

Stephen Paddock, 64, lived just 90 minutes outside Las Vegas in the city of Mesquite, where he purchased a home in a retirement community for just over $369,000 in 2015 according to public records.

Paddock had both hunting and fishing licenses according to public records, as well as his pilot’s license, but no criminal record in the state of Nevada.

 

He was retired but had worked for as an internal auditor at Lockheed Martin for three years in the late 1980s, and managed an apartment building complex in Mesquite, Texas.

Paddock was also the son of Benjamin Hoskins Paddock, a serial bank robber who ended up on the FBI Most Wanted list back in 1969 when he escaped from federal prison in Texas while serving a 20 years sentence.

The FBI kept him on the list for the next eight years, and he was eventually found one year after he was removed from the list in 1978 while outside an Oregon Bingo hall.

The agency said that the fugitive had been “diagnosed as psychopathic” and also had possible “suicidal tendencies”.

Paddock had committed suicide by the time police breached the door to the room from which the gunman had opened fire at the Mandalay Bay Resort just after 10pm on Sunday night.

It marked the end of what has now become the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history, which left at least 58 dead and 515 injured.

What a horrific attack. One madman can shoot almost 600 people, killing 58 of them.

Eric Paddock said his brother was a normal guy who must have “snapped” before carrying out the worst mass shooting in American history.

Eric Paddock said that “something happened” to make his brother Stephen kill 58 and injure 515.

Eric said that there was “absolutely no indication he could do something like this” and said that Stephen had no political or religious affiliation.

He said: “He was just a guy. Something happened, he snapped or something”.

So unusual to have no known motive or reason.

ISIS meanwhile claimed responsibility for the attack early Monday, saying the gunman was a recent convert to Islam.

That claims was quickly discredited by multiple officials, who stated that there is no evidence to support that allegation.

A 64 year old retired accountant and gambler seems an unlikely convert.

Such a tragedy. So many dead and injured for no reason. Scores of families in mourning and hundreds traumatized.

Final list of major donors

The final list of major (over $30,000) donors is:

From the Electoral Commission:

  1. Gareth Morgan to TOP $1,700,000
  2. Inner Mongolia Rider Horse Industry (NZ) Ltd to National $150,000
  3. E Tu Union to Labour $120,000
  4. Hon Robert Smellie to Labour $115,000
  5. Alpha Laboratories to National $112,000
  6. Dame Jenny Gibbs to ACT $106,200
  7. Alan Gibbs to ACT $100,000
  8. Bruce Plested to Maori Party $100,000
  9. NZ Dairy Workers Union to Labour $100,000
  10. Susan Cullen to Maori Party $82,512
  11. Tom Pan to Labour $65,000
  12. Karl Maughan to Labour $60,000
  13. Lianna Hagaman to National $57,616
  14. Heartland Bank to National $57,400
  15. Barry Colman to National $56,000
  16. HWM (NZ) Holdings to National 55,000
  17. Philip Hong to National $51,720
  18. Phillip Mills to Labour $50,000
  19. De Yi Shi to National $50,000
  20. Carrus Ltd to National $50,000
  21. Rorohara Farms Ltd (Bruce Plested) to Maori Party $50,000
  22. Lane Capital Group to National $50,000
  23. Christopher Reeve to ACT $45,000
  24. Tuku Morgan to Maori Party $43,000
  25. Maritime Union to Labour $40,500
  26. Stanley Palner to Labour $39,100
  27. Murray Chandler to ACT $35,000
  28. MF Management Ltd to National $32,000
  29. Tamati Cairns to Maori Party $30,000

So by party:

  1. TOP $1,700,000
  2. National $721,736
  3. Labour $589,600
  4. Maori Party $305,512
  5. ACT $286,200

Conspiracy theories masked as academic analysis

A great article by Katherine Rich:

In an era when consumers are sceptical of “fake news”, a further concern is brewing. 

It surrounds the blurred lines between objective academia, legitimate advocacy, and what is, in essence, just academic activism.

 Public health is one field where such concern is relevant—where sometimes the effort to advance knowledge and public benefit is threatened by the use of exaggeration and flawed methodologies wrapped in emotive but persuasive language.  …

The most recent glaring example of this is a paper published in the journal Critical Public Health under the names of Gary Sacks, Boyd A Swinburn, Adrian J Cameron, and Gary Ruskin, entitled “How food companies influence evidence and opinion—straight from the horse’s mouth”.

Once again it’s a paper based on academic analysis of the correspondence of others, which extrapolates the exchange to imply it is representative of the entire global food industry. 

It’s hard not to conclude that with this paper we might have reached peak social science silliness. 

So what is this email, which is treated like a food industry Watergate tape, all about?

It was written by Dr Michael Knowles, a man whose life’s work has been to ensure good science underpinned food decision-making. 

In it he shared a view with a colleague, Dr Alex Malaspina, about how the food industry should respond to “biased, non-scientifically based recommendations” concerning key issues such as obesity and causative factors, sugar, and low/no-calorie sweetener safety. 

Knowles’s suggestion was to encourage learned discussion among scientists in professional societies. 

And that’s it. 

But the authors have chosen to interpret this suggestion in the darkest possible light. 

Despite not even knowing Knowles, his organisation, work or motivations, the authors present his support of evidence-based discussion as being some kind of Machiavellian food industry plot. This is unfair and not substantiated by the evidence.

In my experience you can divide public health activists into two camps. The former are focused on achieving better public health outcomes, and the latter are focused on attacking companies they don’t like. The latter group tend to be heavily left wing and basically see capitalism as the true enemy.

Here’s why I believe the academic paper is flawed and the attacks on Knowles unsubstantiated and appalling… 

Inconceivably small dataset – one email 

The “horse’s mouth” of the paper is a single (yes, just one!) email from 2015 between the two former employees of Coca-Cola. Both men have strong qualifications and are still passionately involved in positive global food and beverage discussions.

One. Single. Email. The smallest dataset possible. Hardly the Rosetta Stone.

It’s difficult to conceive how a selective analysis of one email can be accepted by a reputable, refereed journal like Critical Public Health as an adequate basis for making sweeping claims in respect of entire industries and groups of directors and managers. An unknown graduate researcher could not expect to gain such traction.

The authors make such evidence sound much grander than it is by using phrases that minimise the fact that this is one email from two former industry executives. 

So this paper alleging a huge conspiracy is based on one innocuous e-mail.

Is it reasonable to take an email sent to a man who left a company many years ago and claim that it’s representative of a company today? The paper’s authors apparently think so.

The authors rely heavily on the fact that they’re analysing an email between two “former senior executives of Coca-Cola to gain insider insight”. They’ve treated Knowles’s typed words with the same solemnity as if they’d been uttered by the Coca-Cola Company chief executive at the time, Muhtar Kent.

Both gentlemen had retired from the company years before the email was written: the recipient hadn’t worked for Coca-Cola for at least 15 years, while Knowles had retired in 2013.

Though the paper points out that the two are former employees, that doesn’t stop the authors from furthering the conspiracy theory—and extrapolating their findings to cover the entire global food industry.

So it was an e-mail between someone who had left Coke 15 years ago and someone who left Coke 2 years ago.

The paper’s references fall into two main groups: the authors’ own work or sensational general media stories. 

It happens a lot in academic work, but it always seems somewhat dubious when papers include the practice of making assertions such as “it is well established that…” and then quote the author’s own work as the evidence. 

In no sense can continual quoting and re-quoting of one’s own papers be seen as providing a satisfactory form of independent verification.

It’s self-verification!

The words “research”, “academic paper” and “journal”, create the impression that there is some higher process applied compared to that of an op-ed in a newspaper, a call to radio talkback or even a food industry CEO writing for FoodNavigator-Asia.

With this paper, it’s hard to see any other process at play than the authors looking at an email and expressing an opinion. How this paper managed to get published by such a respected journal is for the journal to justify.

It’s a legitimate op ed, but is it an academic paper?

I suggest people read the e-mail, the “research” paper and Katherine’s post in full. You’ll be amazed.

PSA: Educational events in Wellington and Auckland

On behalf of Alwyn Poole:

A Properly Held Growth Mindset is THE key to Effective Teaching for Improvement and Excellence

 

(join us for an event in Auckland Nov 11 a great time for PD and planning for change/improvement in 2018)

 

Having been in teaching since 1991 (Tauranga Boys, Hamilton Boys, St Cuthbert’s College, Villa Education Trust) and having been the parent of three children, to me, the key progression in education and human development has been the improved understanding in how the human brain works. When you place this alongside the work of Carol Dweck (and subsequently others) on a “growth mindset” you have a huge hint on how to make a difference to both young people and adults.

 

As Carol Dweck makes clear in her work – this is not a platitude. It needs to be carefully understood and applied.

 

John Hattie explains after spending time with Carol Dweck:

 

“[a] growth mindset” – it is not an attribute of a person, it is a way of thinking in a particular circumstance. “


The key question is, “WHEN is the appropriate situation for thinking in a growth manner over a fixed manner?” In these situations, having access to growth thinking helps resolve the situation, move the person forward, and not lead to resistance, over reaction and fear of flight into a fixed mindset.

 

Most recently, Dweck (2017) noted her research relates directly to how students perceive their abilities – which has a long history in self-attribution, locus of control, calibration, and many other related notions. She brought a sharpness to two of the core ideas.

  • The belief that one’s intelligence or abilities can be changed
  • or
  • It is fixed and immutable

 

the lowest achieving students found a message of possible change compelling, and while they did not change their beliefs about intelligence, they did feel a boost of optimism that drove them forward” 

 

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/finding_common_ground/2017/06/misinterpreting_the_growth_mindset_why_were_doing_students_a_disservice.html

 

And as Hattie’s associate Peter DeWitt writes:

 

[Hattie] said the reason why growth vs. fixed mindset has a low effect size is due to the fact that adults have a fixed mindset and keep treating students accordingly, so right now the effect size is low, and will continue to stay low unless we change our practices in the classroom. We put students in ability groups, they get scores on high stakes tests that help label them … once students enter into Special Education, very few leave.

 

First and foremost, we have to get away from having a fixed mindset [ourselves] because it has terrible implications for how we treat students. We do not have a crystal ball, and we shouldn’t treat students who struggle like they will struggle for the rest of their lives. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we treat students like they will always struggle…they may always struggle.

 

We talk a lot about the growth mindset but our actions may be counterproductive to putting it into action. A growth mindset is so vitally important for adults and students. Adults need to have that mindset for their own growth but more importantly for the growth of their students.

Talking about the growth mindset is not good enough. Our actions are where the rubber hits the road. If we believe the growth mindset is important, and believe that it should have a higher effect size, then we need to follow up with the actions to make it happen.

 

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/finding_common_ground/2015/07/why_a_growth_mindset_wont_work.html

 

One of the people who have made these concepts accessible is Matthew Syed – best-selling author of Bounce and Black Box Thinking.

 

At the Villa Education Trust we have taken this seriously in our day-to-day practices in our three schools. More than that – we are bringing one of Matthew’s authorised Mindset in Education speakers (Rob Carpenter) from the UK to New Zealand in November of this year.

 

http://www.matthewsyed.co.uk/mindset-programmes/

 

We would love for you to be there:

 

November 9 in Wellington: https://www.eventfinda.co.nz/2017/black-box-thinking-in-education/wellington

 

November 11 in Auckland: https://www.eventfinda.co.nz/2017/black-box-thinking-in-education/auckland