UK polls accuracy

The graphic is from 538.

The overall point is that US polls have been out by an average 5% to 6%, around double the average 2% margin in the US.

But what I find more interesting is that the errors almost all favour the Conservative Party or the conservative side of a referendum. Since 1992 the error has been against the Conservatives everytime except 2010 (which was close to spot on).

So yes the polls may be an inaccurate forecast of what will happen in June. But if they are, history is the Conservatives will do even better than the polls show!

Immigration changes

The Herald reports:

Immigration changes announced today will “safeguard the position of New Zealand workers”, says BusinessNZ.

They will also help New Zealand get more higher skilled migrants, the business lobby group says.

Under new rules announced by the Government this morning, migrants will need to earn more than $49,000 to qualify for a skilled worker visa.

Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse said the changes are aimed at increasing the quality of people coming to New Zealand, rather than reducing the number.

Two remuneration thresholds will be introduced.

•One will be set at the New Zealand median income, about $49,000 per year. Anyone earning less will no longer be classified as highly-skilled, and permanent residence applications will no longer be able to claim points for jobs that are paid below the median income.

• The other threshold will be set at 1.5 times the New Zealand median income of $73,299 a year for jobs that are not currently considered skilled but are well paid

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that the pay threshold will reduce “the potential for migrants undercutting Kiwi workers’ pay”.

“Employers have faced real difficulties in getting higher skilled workers and today’s changes will help get more focus on actively-sought skills,” Hope said.

“At the same time, proposed stand-down rules for lower-skilled migrants will reduce the potential for residence applications to be dominated by lower-skilled workers. There will always be a tension between the need for in-demand skills and the requirement for optimal access by Kiwis to the employment market.

The changes aren’t major, and seem pretty sensible. Immigration overall is a net benefit to New Zealand, but that doesn’t mean every immigrant is. Policy settings that focus more on higher value migrants are good.

Under 18 marriages

The Herald reports:

Teenage marriages were more common in the 1970s. In 1971, 285 boys and 2304 girls aged 16 and 17 were wed.

In the most recent data, for 2015, 12 boys and 36 girls were married aged 16 or 17. That was a slight increase on the previous year when 33 girls and nine boys were wed.

Wow can’t believe so many teen marriages in the 70s.

Also in the article an interesting contrast between Labour MPs:

Labour’s spokesman for Pacific Island Affairs, Su’a William Sio, said he had not heard of forced marriages in Pasifika communities.

“I’m not sure what she’s aiming at. This is the 21st century. That just doesn’t happen.”

Total denial from Sio.

Ardern said the Family and Whanau Violence Legislation Bill, which is before the select committee, has proposed a new offence for the coercion of marriage with a sentence to imprisonment for up to five years. This would cover marriages not governed by New Zealand law or those not legally binding.

“We’re very supportive of taking action.

“People are surprised to hear forced marriage is an issue in New Zealand, but it absolutely is.”

While Ardern says it is a real issue.

Brash shows up Gould’s ignorance

Don Brash writes:

But Mr Gould went further than Mr Robertson to praise Sonny Bill Williams’ highly negative attitude to banks in general. He said banks like to pretend they provide a useful service to the community by channelling resources from those who have no immediate need for them (savers) to those who do need them (borrowers), charging a modest spread for rendering that service.

But, said Mr Gould, this “benign view of [bank] operations is inaccurate and misleading. The banks do not lend you mortgage money deposited with them by someone else. They lend you money they themselves create out of nothing through the stroke of a pen or, today, a computer entry. The banks make their money, in other words, by charging interest on money that they themselves create”.

He then goes on to blame this money creation for the housing affordability crisis which Auckland now finds itself in, and to attack the Government for washing its hands of this aspect of the housing crisis.

Mr Gould is not alone in peddling this nonsense, but that certainly doesn’t make it correct.

The banking system does create money. When Bank A lends money to one of its customers, the customer may use those funds to buy something from somebody who banks with Bank B. Bank B then finds itself with an additional deposit, a part of which it can lend out to its customers (keeping some of the additional deposit as a liquidity reserve). So an initial loan may end up considerably increasing the total lending by the banking system.

But from the point of view of each individual bank, it can only lend out a part of the money which its customers deposit with it, or money which it borrows from other sources, possibly overseas.

If individual banks really could create money by “the stroke of a pen or a computer entry”, as Mr Gould contends, why do they bother paying interest on deposits, why do they borrow funds from parent banks overseas, why do they borrow funds in the international market, why do they need to hold some funds in government securities as a liquidity reserve, why do some banks occasionally run out of money when customers lose confidence in them?

As well as being a former Governor of the Reserve Bank, I now chair the small New Zealand subsidiary of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the largest bank in the world. It would certainly make life very much easier if we could, “by the stroke of a pen or a computer entry”, simply create the money which we lend out to New Zealand borrowers. Unfortunately, we can’t.

I always think of Bryan Gould as the 1990s version of Jeremy Corbyn!

No money for food, just guns

The Herald reports:

Embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro yesterday announced plans to expand the number of civilians involved in armed militias as tensions in the crisis-wracked South American nation continued to rise.

Maduro said he hopes to expand the number of civilians involved in the Bolivarian militias created by the late Hugo Chavez to 500,000, up from the current 100,000, and provide each member with a gun.

The population is starving, and Maduro’s solution is to buy more guns for his socialist militias.

No we’re not the second least taxed country in the OECD

Several media outlets have reported that the OECD found NZ has the second lowest level of taxation in the OECD. This is incorrect, as media have not understood the difference between tax wedge and tax.

The OECD did report that for a family with kids, the tax wedge is the second lowest. What the tax wedge is, is the difference between gross and net pay. Here is what it includes and does not include:

  • GST – not included. We pay a high proportion of tax through GST as it has few exemptions. GST brings in $19b and income tax $32b.
  • ACC levy – not included
  • WFF Tax Credits – included as a negative tax even though they are actually a welfare payment delivered through the IRD.
  • KiwiSaver – not included as not compulsory while most other countries have compulsory savings and this is included in the tax wedge

So for a family with two kids, the tax wedge or difference between gross and net pay is very small because includes a welfare payment (which is funded by tax from others) and we don’t have compulsory superannuation (which is not a tax as it is money that stays owned by you).

The Taxpayers’ Union points out the better measure of tax burden is total government outlays as a percentage of GDP – NZ is at 39.1% which is around the OECD average of 40%.

$2 billion and not one extra service provided

The Herald reports:

Care workers in women-dominated industries will get pay rises worth up to a $5000 a year after a historic settlement with the Government.

In all, the package will cost more than $2 billion and could require a lift in ACC levies or higher fees for aged care residents.

It will cover 55,000 care workers, mostly women, in the aged residential care, home support and disability service sectors.

The settlement comes after a pay equity claim brought by E Tu (previously the Service and Food Workers Union) on behalf of care worker Kristine Bartlett against her employer TerraNova.

It is the first legal settlement in New Zealand which recognises that some jobs pay less because they are done mainly by women.

It’s great of course for those 55,000 workers but I can’t support something that costs $2 billion and doesn’t result in a single extra person being provided care.

Announcing the deal today, Health Minister Jonathan Coleman described it as the largest pay increase in New Zealand’s history.

It would benefit some of New Zealand’s lowest-paid workers, he said. The workforce was mostly female and part-time, with average wages of between $16 and $18 an hour.

As a result of the agreement, carers who were on the minimum wage would receive a pay rise of between 15 and 49 per cent, depending on their qualifications.

A 49% pay increase for no productivity gain. If this was a private sector employer they’d go bust. Instead we’ll just pay more in taxes and ACC levies.

It is probably the biggest victory for unions in the last 30 years.

Is the UK about to have a snap election?

The Telegraph reports:

Theresa May is due to make a statement in Downing Street at 11.15am amid speculation the Prime Minister could call an early general election. 

Mrs May is scheduled to make her statement immediately following a meeting of her Cabinet. 

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg confirmed the news and said such a statement is “only normally used for most serious moments”. 

We’ll find out in 45 minutes!

UPDATE: It is an election – 8 June. Will need a super majority vote in Parliament tomorrow.

Conservatives surge ahead

The Telegraph reports:

The Conservatives are further ahead of Labour in the polls than they have been at any point in almost a decade, according to a new survey which gives the Tories a 21 point lead.  

A new poll puts Theresa May and the Conservatives on 44 per cent with Jeremy Corbyn’s party trailing far behind on just 23 per cent.

The UK has FPP so a result on this poll would probably see them win 420 or so seats and Labour around 130.

Despite the gloomy predictions shadow home secretary Diane Abbott, a key ally of Mr Corbyn, insisted Labour would be “languishing” below 10 per cent in the polls if he was forced out as leader by party critics.

We can only hope.

Huge pay rises – taxpayer funded

The Herald reports:

About 55,000 low-paid workers, mainly women, are about to get one of the biggest pay rises ever after details of a historic pay equity settlement are revealed today.

The deal will cost the Government over $500 million a year when fully implemented in five years, assuming it is signed off by union members and the Cabinet.

That is a lot of money. It is around a third of the annual operating allowance for new spending in any one year.

The settlement will mean hefty pay increases from July in three government-funded service sectors that employ mainly women on low rates: aged residential care, home support, and disability services.

The Herald understands that for the primary litigant, rest home caregiver Kristine Bartlett, it will mean an increase from about $16 an hour to about $23 an hour – more than 43 per cent.

The deal allows for annual increases over five years to $27 an hour.

Overall, pay rises will range from $3 an hour to $7, depending on the work and experience.

Labour and Greens have pledged to keep crown spending to under 30% of GDP. This extra $500 million a year in spending will mean they have $500 million a year less for their promises.

Come fight the good fight

The NZ Taxpayers’ Union is looking for a communications and engagement assistant:

We have an exciting opportunity for a junior to intermediate communications professional, who wants to work for a pressure group in the heart of Wellington politics. The role is based in our Wellington office, but also covers our sister group, the Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance.

We seek an energetic individual who wants to develop their communications skills within an organisation where no two days are the same and communications contribute to the national political environment. You’ll gain experience in a fast-paced, communications-led environment, where accuracy and attention to detail is a must in responding to the political agenda and issues of the day.

This role will see you providing valuable support to spokespeople, researchers, economic staff and volunteers. You will assist in turning economic and research projects into compelling campaigns and communications suitable for a public audience. You will also be involved in internal communications with donors and supporters who make our work possible.

Your responsibilities will include, but are not limited to:

• Execute campaigns and initiatives that underpin the organisation’s strategic objectives;
• Identifying opportunities in the media for comment and contributions of messages which reinforce the organisation’s campaigns;
• Collaborate with stakeholders, including donors and members to promote engagement, support and fundraising efforts;
• General correspondence;
• Social media monitoring; and
• External communications including drafting stories, media releases and blog entries.

As a proactive thinker and creative individual, you will be looking to forge a communications career within a nationally known organisation, whilst being supported by experienced communicators. The position is ideal for someone interested in a career in corporate affairs; politics; lobbying or the not-for-profit sector.

You will need to be comfortable with being part of a team that is not always sitting in the same location as you and will be able to build strong relationships through virtual communication tools.

A relevant tertiary qualification or proven interest/experience is an advantage. Advanced social media, MS Office and Outlook skills are desirable, as is an interest in politics. You must be a skilled writer – both in accuracy and ability to write persuasively.

As a self-starter with outstanding written and verbal communication skills, you will be comfortable engaging with a variety of stakeholders, including high net worth individuals.

A great fun job. You get to attack corporate welfare, expose government waste, campaign for lower taxes and apply the blow torch to high spending local Councils.

Now that is closing the gaps

Hekia Parata released final NCEA achievement data and the results speak for themselves. I have done a summary below:

The increase in Pasifika achievement has been massive, as has the lift for Maori achievement. And if you look at it by deciles, those studying in the lowest decile schools have had the biggest increase in achievement rates.

Having more kids leave schools with some educational achievement is a very good thing. It gives them greater opportunities going forward, and can make a huge difference long-term to society.

The truth about the NHS

Kristian Niemietz writes in The Independent:

Genuine question: what’s exceptional about the NHS?

The fact that it’s universal, that it provides care to everybody irrespective of ability to pay? Standard fare. All healthcare systems in the developed world do that, with the US system being the only major exception.

The fact that it is generally free at the point of use, with very little out-of-pocket spending? Nothing special either. Plenty of systems are, or where they have modest co-payments, they exempt people on low incomes and/or with high health needs.     

The fact that it offers modern technology and modern medicines? Meh. All healthcare systems in the developed world do that, and plenty of them are more innovation-friendly than the NHS.

The fact that it runs on compassion and solidarity, rather than self-interest? Give me a break. Of course it runs on self-interest. Let’s do an experiment: let’s cut doctors’ pay by a quarter or so and see how many of them would still turn up to work.

Now, if it delivered impressive outcomes, that would indeed be a reason to be proud of it. The Swiss have good reasons to be proud of their healthcare system. They have the lowest rate of (healthcare-related) avoidable deaths in Europe, possibly in the world.

The Dutch have good reasons to be proud of their system too. It is an exceptionally generous system which offers fast access to a broad range of treatments.

The Japanese and the Israelis have good reasons to be proud of their systems. They achieve phenomenally good survival rates for cancer and stroke.

And then there are the French, German and Belgian systems: not spectacularly good in any one particularly category, but consistently good across the board.

The NHS? Nearly always in the bottom third of the league tables, usually about on a par with the Czech Republic and Slovenia.

I’ve never used the NHS but don’t know that many people in the UK who rave about it. Most of them constantly complain about it.

Make it a binding register

Stuff reports:

More than half of all New Zealand drivers have ticked “donor” on their driver licences, official figures show.

The NZ Transport Agency figures come on the back of 100 submissions on a Ministry of Health-led review aimed at improving organ donation rates, and looking at what role the licence register should play.

Barring the 75-plus age group, willing donors were in the majority for every age group, when compared with those who indicated no, or left the space blank.

Released under the Official Information Act, the figures break down the number of donors out of the country’s There are 3.5 million licensed drivers, of whom 1.9m have indicated “donor” on their licences.

Last year, there were 61 dead organ donors. 

Making the driver licence system an effective register is one of the proposals the ministry has suggested in the review. It says this could be done through better information, and more opportunities to update donor preferences.

It should be a register of donor decisions, not preferences.

The current system is basically a cruel hoax. You tick the box thinking it means that if you end up in a situation where you can donate, it will happen. But in fact ticking the box is meaningless. The hospitals often don’t even check the database. They ignore what you have indicated, and force your family into deciding.

 

The death of old Turkey

Stuff reports:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared victory in a referendum that grants him sweeping new powers, as opposition parties alleged massive fraud.

With 98 per cent of ballots counted, the state-run Anadolu news agency had Turks approving the most radical constitutional overhaul since the republic was founded 93 years ago by 51.3 per cent to 48.7 per cent. The election board’s official tally is yet to be released. A win would give Erdogan authority to appoint ministers and top judges at his discretion and call elections at any time.

But as the president was calling “Yes” campaigners to congratulate them, broad swathes of the opposition were alleging foul play. Erdal Aksunger, the deputy head of the CHP, the largest opposition bloc, said Anadolu was “manipulating” results as it announced them.

Turkey is going from a parliamentary democracy to rule by “strongman” like Russia has. A sad end to a once great country that was a beacon of stability in the world.

Finally a great cure for obesity

Frances Martel reports:

A poll released this week among Venezuelan nationals found that 75 percent of Venezuelans reported losing “at least 19 pounds” in 2016, while 93 percent of Venezuelans said they do not have the money to secure three meals a day for themselves.

Stunning news for public health activists. We just have to implement socialism in New Zealand and we also can get rid of obesity and slash our average weight.

The Living Conditions Survey, organized in part by three national universities, also found that 83 percent of Venezuelans were below the nation’s poverty line.

But those 83% are now all equal.

A poll released in September found that 15 percent of the nation relied on garbage, most from industrial businesses like groceries and restaurants, to eat. Over half of Venezuelans said they had experienced going to bed hungry, and a similar amount said they were forced to take days off from work to search for food.

That situation has not improved — on the contrary, video surfacing this year appears to indicate that scavenging in garbage dumpsters for food has become so popular that Venezuelans now stand in line in front of dumpsters to look for food.

More recycling and less food waste – great environmental achievements also.

Desperation has also fed crime in one of the most violent countries in the world. The Miami-based El Nuevo Herald published a report last month detailing new robbery tactics growing increasingly popular among Venezuelan youth. Gang attacks on people leaving markets have become more common

Forcible redistribution.

Maduro also created a government unit called the CLAP (Local Committee for Supply and Production) to monitor the distribution of food packages in urban areas. Anti-socialist groups have accused the CLAP of distributing the food only to known government supporters and threatening not to feed households that have expressed opposition to socialism.

What could go wrong with a government committee deciding who gets food and who doesn’t!

Maduro announced this week that he would expand the CLAP program to government salaries, meaning government workers would be paid with CLAP food packages. In some cases, government workers would receive ration tickets to be used at government-controlled markets for food.

Another great leap forwards.

Guest Post: Opposition to the Point England Development Enabling Bill – It’s about the environment, stupid.

A guest post by Julie Chambers:

On April the 7th Nick Smith claimed the primary function of the land at Point England is for grazing cattle.  That, he claimed justifies this land being subdivided and sold.

This Reserve has been used for grazing because in the 1990s Housing New Zealand paid no rates and Councils of the time were not permitted to spend Reserve Contributions outside the areas they were collected. Poor suburbs had no or little money for investment in parks and open spaces. Leasing to farmers was the best option.

Now days those parts of this Reserve are used ten times more by shorebirds, than cows. The shorebirds nesting in this Reserve are at risk of extinction.  The cows, dogs and people using it are definitely not.

Saying this reserve is only used by cows is like saying Eden Park is only used by lawn mowers.

The rest of the land at Point England has significant value for a wide range of people and is well used as sports grounds and open space.  It is really surprising the Government plans to take sports fields from the community by legislation. The ‘housing benefit’ of this Bill is totally questionable, given ‘the numbers’ and the potential costs of this development.  However this post focuses on the environmental losses.

The Point England Development Enabling Bill rezones land that is eligible for internationally recognised protection under the Ramsar convention without any consideration for the environment. Wildlife is not even mentioned in the Bill.  

The Wildlife Act protects dotterel from hunting. The maximum penalty for killing protected wildlife is a $100,000 fine and up to a year in jail. Killing a Northern New Zealand dotterel is an environmental crime. I think destroying their nesting habitat and wilfully putting predators in their midst is even worse because it is not killing just one bird but dooming a local population forever.

Is it less of a crime because an iwi might benefit? – I don’t know, but if I commit a crime to benefit an iwi it’s still a crime.

Ngāti Pāoa are not environmental criminals, this Government on the advice of the Local Government and Environment Committee will be responsible. We can’t fine or put our own government in jail for this crime, all members of the public can do is plead the case for saving the birds. This bill sets an ugly precedent, pitting iwi against the environment and the local community. It needs to be stopped.

An iwi CEO told media “We would look to repatriate the place the [dotterel] are originally from through restoration and revitalisation”. This has been repeated.

Just in case anyone believes this is possible, it is not.   First we do not know where the Point England dotterel were born. Many of them could be second or third generation locals. Second you cannot tell a bird (Northern New Zealand dotterel) where to nest. The most you can do is get permission from DOC, then move a nest a metre or two (usually to avoid a spring tide event). You can use decoys and audio lures for birds that nest together in flocks. Dotterel do not nest in flocks, they are very territorial because their chicks are precocial (feed for themselves) just like kiwi.

Just to be clear – dotterel nests cannot be moved, if this building goes ahead their chicks are not likely to survive either the construction phases of this development, or the domestic pets that will move in later.

We ‘public’ have no longer any ability to decide the fate of this reserve.  The Select Committee currently reporting on this Bill could advise the Minister and MPs on a better way for iwi to get fair settlement; how the communities could keep their recreational land and how New Zealanders can preserve their special nature reserves. 

All the people wanting to save these birds can do now is ask these Members of Parliament – Please will you do the right thing for the nesting dotterel, the future of this species, the roosting shorebirds and the health of the Tamaki Estuary”?     Will they?   Will Nick Smith listen?

Shaun Lee / Julie Chambers
Save our Parks from Development
www.saveourreserves.org.nz

NYT highlights NZ as a great place for tech talent

The NY Times reports:

New Zealand has long wanted to be a tech hub, but distance was an issue. Now, at a moment of political upheaval around the globe, that isolation has become a selling point.

A municipal program to fly in 100 developers next month — wine them, dine them and offer them jobs — was expected to draw 2,500 applications. But the recruitment effort, called LookSee Wellington, was besieged with more than 48,000 entries, including workers at Google, Amazon, Facebook, M.I.T. and NASA. At one point so many people checked out the program that the website failed.

For all sorts of reasons, New Zealand suddenly makes sense. The cost of living is less than in San Francisco. Commuting is less wearying. And American politics, “Brexit” and the Islamic State are on the other side of the world.

Come to Wellington, come to New Zealand.

Despicable

Newshub reports:

Green MP Julie Anne Genter has shared an “incredibly insensitive” email she received from a member of the public.

The email, posted to Facebook, appeared to blame Ms Genter’s tragic miscarriages on fluoride in the water supply.

“I read in the paper a little while ago that you had two miscarriages,” it reads. “Therefore I thought I would send you this information on fluoride. People don’t realise how toxic fluoride is, even at low levels.

“I presume that is because the dentists will be extremely embarrassed if it is found that they are wrong.”

This is just awful. How could the person who sent this think it was anything except appalling. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Julie Anne has taken this far better than I would in her situation. I’d want to do physical damage to someone who sent an e-mail like that to me or my partner, if we had suffered a miscarriage.

UPDATE: Michelle Dickinson has a wonderful response on her blog.