Murphy on Little

Tim Murphy writes:

Little has had a mixed past month – escaping a risky defamation verdict but erring by implying a Little government would substantially cut immigrant numbers by more than seems possible.

His wooing of the volatile Jackson, who left a radio job that he proudly said paid more for three hours a day than an MP could earn, was always risky. On Monday, Jackson proved that, with a petulance at being ranked No 21 on the Labour list of 74 – which today has Little talking all about Jackson, not the broader list. …

The L word problem – his image and communication issue – is one that Labour’s MPs, candidates, and volunteers will strike on the doorsteps. 

His deputy Jacinda Ardern hit it at a Wintec Press Club lunch last Friday. In what might have been a chummy question and answer session, she was grilled repeatedly on the Little factor. Direct, personal stuff like (paraphrasing here) “As a woman, how can you let a male who is plainly inferior to you retain the leadership?’, and (actual question)  “Does Andrew Little tend to dull your shine?”

The answer to that last one was, as always, diplomatic: “Part of my job is standing alongside Andrew helping people to get to know him.”

There was no let-up, with journalists in the audience asking: “Do you sometimes feel like a winner in a loser’s party?” (No direct answer), and how it felt to out-poll Little in preferred Prime Minister surveys.  Again, Ardern tried hard: Little had to focus on the party vote, and ‘because of my unusual name, I tend to pop up a little.’

She’s not the only MP being confronted over the party leader’s polling and performance. Other MPs try to stay cool when talking about Little’s TV performances, and that marooned polling figure of just under or on 30 per cent.

Even better than his TV appearances are his ones on Radio NZ. Gold.

Little was elected over two years ago saying he wanted Labour in the 40s. Now they are hoping that on a good day they might get 30%.

Robberies showing the limit to tax increases

The Herald reports:

About $40,000 worth of cigarettes were stolen from a Palmerston shop and thousands of dollars’ worth from a Maheno garage yesterday.

Sergeant Blair Wilkinson, of Oamaru, said police were investigating whether the burglaries, at 5.30am and 4.20am, were linked.

Cigarette robberies have been increasing – there were a series of them in Dunedin in January at service stations.

There seems to be a cigarette related robbery a week.

Increases in the excise tax have been a good tool in the past to reduce the level of smoking. It has worked. But there is a limit to how far you can go until you get the unintended consequences such as a black market. When alcohol was prohibited in the US, the black market prospered.

I don’t think we can do any further tax increases (beyond those announced) without fueling the black market to such a level that lives will be lost in these robberies.

Girls do we have a deal for you

The Herald reports:

Bumbling Kiwi jihadist Mark Taylor, who is fighting for Islamic State in Syria, is looking for love.

Taylor, also known as Mohammad Daniel and Abu Abdul Rahman, has surfaced on islamicmarriage.com to try to find a wife.

The former NZDF soldier, whom the US State Department this year declared a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, says he has a “good sense of humour” and an “understanding about marriage life”.

But the divorced 43-year-old also wants his future bride to join him in Islamic State’s self-declared capital of Raqqa.

“I need a righteous practicing [sic] Muslim lady who wants to do Hijrah [immigrate] here inshallah,” says Taylor who went by the username Abujohndaniel on islamicmarriage.com.

His understanding of marriage life may not be what you think!

 

Why do socialists no longer talk about Venezuela?

The Telegraph reports:

Chávez forcefully nationalised more than 1,150 companies, including the oil industry, public utilities, and many banks. Their productivity has duly collapsed. Today, nationalisation is a dirty word in Venezuela and the people are clamouring for these industries to be privatised again.

Nationalisation is at the heart of socialism. And Labour in New Zealand wants to effectively nationalise the building industry by having the state buy up all the land, build the houses and decide what price they get sold for.

The country’s GDP collapsed by 19 per cent last year, imports are down 50 per cent, and inflation is running at more than 700 per cent.

 At the heart of Venezuela’s economic chaos lies market distortions. Petrol is sold at less than 1p per litre, costing £12 billion in state subsidies. Price controls mean that it is unprofitable for small businesses to sell staple goods, creating shortages.

Having politicians set prices is a very bad idea.

The biggest problem with all socialist systems is the broad definition of human rights. The hard left believe that these should include a right to housing, education and healthcare. But they are prepared to allow these rights to trump others, including the freedom of expression.

Socialism’s abject failure in Venezuela should be a salutary lesson to all wide-eyed leftists around the world, including many young people who have signed up to Corbyn’s Labour Party. It is about time Corbyn himself showed some backbone and condemned the flagrant abuses in Venezuela. The discredited ideology of socialism must be consigned to the dustbin of history once and for all.

Doubt it will happen.

Midwife gets off lightly

The Herald reports:

A midwife has been found guilty of professional misconduct after admitting to having sex with her client’s partner during an affair that lasted for at least five months.

It is hard to think of a worse breach of ethics and professionalism for a midwife. The sense of betrayal to the client/mother would be unimaginable.

The New Zealand Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal found the midwife guilty of misconduct and malpractice.

The director of proceedings accepted the midwife’s name should not be removed from the register because of her remorse and rehabilitation efforts.

I’m amazed that she is still allowed to be a midwife. What does it take to actually get struck off?

The director also noted that usually a suspension of nine to 12 months would be warranted but was not necessary because the midwife had removed herself from practice for five months.

So not even suspended.

Boston Globe on US Ambassador Brown

The Boston Globe writes:

Well played, future Ambassador Scott Brown. You gambled, and you won big.

Your prize: Paradise on Earth. …

Would President Trump reward you for your loyalty, or cast you aside like Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie? At first, it seemed to be going badly. He passed you over for VP. Then, after his inauguration, it looked like he might put you in charge of Veterans Affairs, a post you really wanted and might even be good at. Even Warren endorsed you for the job. Despite that — or maybe because of it — Trump chose somebody else.

But it’s now abundantly clear that, even though you lost, you won. I mean, who would want to be Trump’s VP right now, answering for his crazy tweets, racing after him when he leaves a signing ceremony without actually signing anything? Or visiting the North Korean border, apparently to stare at our foes with menace? True, there’s a chance the VP will be president at some point. And you really would rock that leather bomber jacket Mike Pence looked a little silly in. But being attached so closely to Trump’s White House, or to a management nightmare like the VA, is no recipe for success, much less happiness.

And now look at you, in line for what is surely the most heavenly job a president can bestow: ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. My homeland may revoke my Australian citizenship for saying this, but New Zealand is probably the most beautiful country on the planet. Have you seen the “Lord of the Rings’’ movies? The two islands are positively jammed with gorgeousness: emerald hills and impossibly blue seas; snowy mountains and dramatic volcanoes; many sheep and very agreeable people.

Nice promotion for New Zealand!

Brash vs Gould

Have been amused by the columns in the NZ Herald where Bryan Gould has continued to insist banks can just create money out of thin air and that Don Brash doesn’t understand banking.

Brash’s latest response is here.

What amuses me is that Gould has probably never had anything to do with banking except operate a cheque account. He is (like Brash) a former politician, and has been unkindly referred to as UK Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn of the 1990s.

What is Brash’s background in terms of banking. Well as far as I can tell it is:

  • Economist, World Bank
  • CEO, Broadbank
  • CEO, Trustbank
  • Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  • Director, ANZ Bank
  • Director, Westpac Merchant Finance
  • Professor of Banking, AUT
  • Chairman, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

I hope Gould responds to Brash again. It is great sport.

Teaching kids to kill jews

National’s new candidates

National has completed its candidate selections and their new candidates for 2017 are:

Seat Candidate
Northland Matt King
East Coast Bays Erica Stanford
Maungakiekie Denise Lee
Kelston Bala Beeram
New Lynn Paulo Garcia
Helensville Chris Penk
Mangere Agnes Loheni
Manurewa Katrina Bungard
Pakuranga Simeon Brown
Waikato Tim van de Molen
Napier David Elliott
Tukituki Lawrence Yule
Palmerston North Adrienne Pierce
Whanganui Harete Hipango
Rimutaka Carolyn O’Fallon
Mana Euon Murrell
Wellington Central Nicola Willis
Wigram David Hiatt
Rangitata Andrew Falloon
Dunedin South Matt Gregory

 

Those I have bolded are selected for seats National currently holds.

Of the retiring MPs seven are male and one female. The new candidates are five male and three females so if all else stays constant, National will have to more female MPs. Of course list ranking will play a part also as National has 19 List MPs.

What Remain and Leave voters are doing

A very good analysis at The Guardian on polls showing what EU Remain and Leave voters are doing, compared to their 2015 vote.

For every 100 Remain voters they are finding:

  • Conservatives gain 1 vote
  • Labour loses 4 votes
  • UKIP loses 1 vote
  • Lib Dems gains 4 votes

For every 100 Leave voters they find:

  • UKIP loses 6 votes
  • Labour loses 5 votes
  • Conservatives gain 11 votes

So overall for every 100 voters:

  • UKIP loses 7 votes
  • Labour loses 9 votes
  • Lib Dems gain 4 votes
  • Conservatives gain 12 votes

This helps explains why the Conservatives are so strong. They are picking up Leave voters from UKIP and Labour but also holding their Remain voters. While Labour is losing Remain voters to Lib Dems and Leave voters to the Conservatives.

Wellington top city for quality of life

Stuff reports:

And it seems the world agrees – with Wellington topping the rankings in a new report about where you can find the best quality of life in the world.

The capital has beat competition from major global cities, including Sydney and Melbourne, New York, London – and Auckland – to score the top ranking in the report by the Deutsche Bank in Germany.

Scottish city Edinburgh – often compared to Wellington for its seaside vibe, walk-ability and, ahem, weather – rated the second best city.

The capital might not have the sweltering hot summers, luxury fashion shopping meccas, or centuries-old architecture of many globally desirable cities.

But its residents’ purchasing power, the city’s low crime rate and pollution, healthcare options, cost of living, house prices, commuting time, and climate puts Wellington in top, according to the survey.

The fact the city is so compact is a major plus.

WORLD CLASS CITIES

1. Wellington, New Zealand

2. Edinburgh, Scotland

3. Vienna, Austria

4. Melbourne, Australia

5. Zurich, Switzerland

6. Copenhagen, Denmark

7. Ottawa, Canada

8. Boston, United States

9. Amsterdam, Netherlands

10. Sydney, Australia

I love both Vienna and Edinburgh. Could happily live in either place. Just visited Copenhagen in March and also very pleasant. Boston is a great city also.

Prince Philip retires from public duties

Stuff reports:

Prince Philip, the consort known for his constant support of his wife Queen Elizabeth II as well as for his occasional gaffes, will retire from royal duties later this year.

Philip, 95, made the decision himself with the full support of the queen, Buckingham Palace said in a statement on Thursday. The royal, known as the Duke of Edinburgh, has suffered from heart disease and other ailments in recent years but has nonetheless maintained a vigorous public schedule.

He seemed to be in good health and a fine mood on Wednesday (Thursday NZT) during an appearance at a London cricket club. He joked about being the world’s most experienced person when it comes to unveiling plaques.

Like many, very glad the announcement wasn’t something more serious. I don’t think anyone could say 95 is too young an age to retire. His service has been second only to his wife’s, and I for one have enjoyed his many politically incorrect statements.

Good

Stuff reports:

A Zimbabwean rapist and murderer has left New Zealand after the immigration minister refused to grant him a work visa.

He left the country of his own accord, according to official documents obtained by RNZ.

The man, who called himself William Nduku, arrived here in 2015 on a fake South African passport.

Good.

Regional polls results in UK

An interesting breakdown of a UK poll by region. I’ve listed below the Conservative lead over Labour in each region, and how this has changed from the 2015 result:

  1. Wales +24% (+34%)
  2. South East +24% (-9%)
  3. Humberside +16% (+22%)
  4. South West +13% (-12%)
  5. Eastern +12% (-15%)
  6. East Midlands +12% (nc)
  7. London +11% (+20%)
  8. Scotland +11% (+20%)
  9. West Midland +4% (-5%)
  10. Northern Ireland -2% (+11%)
  11. North West -7% (+7%)
  12. North East -17% (+5%)

So the Conservatives have picked up the most net support in Wales, Humberside, London and Scotland. They have lost support in West Midland, and down South.

Labour can’t even get people to the pub

Who was No 75 on the Labour List

It has been reported that the person who was ranked No 75 on Labour’s list declined that spot and opted to go electorate only. Labour have not said who it was.

Stuff reports:

The Labour Party’s candidate for Otaki has once again opted to stay off his party’s list, saying he feels it is the best way for him to represent the electorate.

The party released its list for September’s election on Tuesday, which saw promotions, demotions and some people left right out.

Rob McCann, Labour’s candidate for Otaki, was not on the list.

An interesting coincidence. It should be a matter of record whether Mr McCann went through the list ranking process which would indicate whether his decision to opt out was before or after the list ranking was done.

Dunne on UK and NZ Labour

Peter Dunne writes:

For those who follow British politics, the prospect of the coming General Election turning into a major train wreck for the British Labour Party looms large. Barely a day passes without another set of contradictory views or comments emerging from senior members of that Party. Most of the criticism inevitably finds its way back to the Party’s veteran socialist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a man who, in a long political career has never been chosen to hold any Government office.

34 years in Parliament and never has held Government office. Few seriously think he could lead a Government, let alone actually negotiate Brexit with the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn was never elected leader of the British Labour Party by the Party’s MPs – indeed, only a few months ago, they passed overwhelmingly a vote of no-confidence in his leadership. Yet he remains, having twice been selected by the Party at large and its trade union base to be Labour’s standard bearer. New Zealand Labour has a similar selection system – current leader Andrew Little was installed in his role in 2014 with the backing of well under half his MPs, and then only narrowly because of the union vote.

Little only received four votes in caucus. He also lost the membership vote to Robertson, but as Dunne says the unions installed him.

As with Mr Corbyn, Mr Little knows that the key to his retaining the leadership, lies not with his MPs, but with the Party’s trade union affiliates. He has already shown his recognition of that by his installation of trade union officials as candidates in a number of seats around the country. Many are likely to feature high up on the Party’s “democratically” selected list. And, like Mr Corbyn, he has eschewed any prospect of Labour claiming the centre ground of politics, indeed going so far as to dismiss the political centre and those who occupy it as “irrelevant.”

It is all about keeping the leadership after the election.

Last week, Mr little was reported widely as proposing to cut immigration numbers by 51,000. While the announcement came from nowhere, there was no denial by any Labour MP at the time that this was their policy. Now, over a week later, having been widely criticised for the announcement, Mr Little says he was misreported, that when he said immigration levels should fall from about around 71,000 to about 20,000, he did not mean a reduction of 51,000. It is difficult to know what else he meant, particularly when his defence was to confirm his original figures, and that he was talking about a drop of “tens of thousands” only. It was a pure Corbyn moment. (It came just a week after a similar moment when responding to National’s pay equity decision.) National will be hoping for many more over the next few months.    

NCEA Maths Not Achieved.

Cohen on liberalism and free speech

Nick Cohen writes:

To paraphrase the paraphrase of Voltaire, the liberal view of sexual tolerance used to be: “I may disapprove of who you take to bed, but I will defend to my death your right to bed them.” Just as liberals used to tolerate free speech, except when the speaker was inciting violence, so they allowed free love between consenting adults. Few now care about defending rights to the death. Many turn authoritarian and maintain you have no right to disapprove.

To recap, the great mid-20th century movement for homosexual rights culminated in the recommendation of the Wolfenden report of 1957 that sexual acts between consenting adults in private should be decriminalised. It did not say that fundamentalist Christians, Jews, Muslims or ordinary secular homophobes must stop believing that homosexuality was a sin. Indeed, their freedom of speech guaranteed their freedom to disapprove. They simply lost the power to call for the police to raid bedrooms.

Exactly.

Equally, the old liberal insistence that free speech must be tolerated, except when it incited violence, did not mean that an audience must approve of a speaker. It remained free to argue back, denounce or satirise in the most robust manner. It just could not call on the authorities to ban speakers or the police to arrest them for “hate speech” when the speech was not so hateful it provoked attacks on its targets.

The answer to bad speech is good speech, not banning it.

The strange controversy the leader of the Liberal Democrats began when he equivocated on whether he believes homosexuality is a sin shows how dead the old liberalism is. On the record, Tim Farron supports “equal rights for LGBT people and LGBT rights in this country and overseas”. But he also believes Christianity is “the most important thing in the universe bar nothing”.

The contortions he put himself through as he dodged questions about homosexuality’s “sinfulness” suggested he took his Bible literally and had dwelt on the murderous condemnations of homosexuality in Leviticus, echoed by St Paul, for longer than is healthy.

If he once did and has now changed his mind, so what? Farron was being a true liberal. He disapproved of homosexuality but was prepared to defend gay rights, just as I disapprove of religious fundamentalists but am prepared to defend their freedom to worship.

Being a liberal means defending things you disagree with.

Jeremy Corbyn worked for Iranian state television and spoke at Khomeinist ralliesin London. Everywhere he went, he looked a willing collaborator with a regime that flogs and executes gay men, treats women as second-class citizens and imprisons trade unionists.

If Corbyn was questioned on this, which he never is, he might say he does not approve of every aspect of Shia theocracy. But he worked for it, and was paid by it, and never found the courage to speak out on Iranian television for the victims of its oppression. A liberal society that condemns one politician who bothers God, but gives a free pass to another who works for a queer-bashing, queer-killing regime is so lost that it may never find its way home again.

A true double standard.

Trump won in part because tens of millions of Americans had had it with being told what to think. Some were genuine bigots. Others could be won over if only “liberals” stopped upholding an illiberal policing of thought.

Unless they understand how they drive so many into the welcoming embrace of the right, Trump’s four-year presidency could stretch to eight. In Britain, we will have at least five more years of Conservative rule. Basic self-interest ought to persuade liberals not to provide justifications for censorship and control when the right – and the right alone – has the power to deliver both.

The politically correct movement is not only an intellectual and practical failure, it fails on the more basic level of human psychology.

You cannot demand respect from others. You can only earn it. You cannot force others to admire you, endorse your lifestyle and drop even private doubts about you. You can only persuade them to see what good there is in you. And if you don’t know by now you that cannot compel others to love you, you never will. All you can do – and all you should want to do – is take the deal when a politician says: don’t ask if I respect you, ask if I respect your rights.

Another great Cohen column.

Not a good look for the SIS

Stuff reports:

The country’s top spy agency has been slammed after thousands of security clearances to access classified Government information were recommended using systems that failed.

Cheryl Gwyn, Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, has released findings into how the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) held and used information collected for assessing security clearances.

The clearances were needed for people to access classified information. And Gwyn’s report found all systems used for security clearance checks were non-compliant “for several years” until a corrective programme began in 2015.

The IGIS report is here. An extract:

Until that certification and accreditation programme, however, the NZSIS instituted and operated all four systems without certification or accreditation, in breach of those security standards. OVR and System B were operated without accreditation from 2009-2016; the DMS from 2013-2015; and System D from 2013-2016.

Basically this says the SIS did not do an internal certification of how secure their systems were and also did not do an external review or accreditation.

This would be bad for any government agency not to do. But for the SIS to have failed at, is very embarrassing.

The systems are now compliant and the report doesn’t suggest any information was improperly accessed.

It is good to have an Inspector-General who is reporting so robustly.

The Eminem trial

The Herald reports:

The National Party spent $4800 on the music used in their 2014 campaign ad – music which as been labelled a “blatant rip-off” of Eminem’s hit rap song Lose Yourself.

The campaign manager for the election that year, Jo de Joux, gave evidence in the High Court at Wellington this afternoon, saying the party sought “complete assurances” there was no risk of copyright infringement when using the track Eminem Esque in their campaign video.

When the clip was played to staff, one suggested the song sounded like Eminem’s Lose Yourself, and de Joux was concerned about the association with the rapper as he had been associated with hate speech at the time, she told the court.

She also asked the production company that sourced the track for them to make sure it was safe for the party to use the music.

Marketing consultant Peter Moore, who was part of the production company set up for that year’s election campaign, said he made a number of enquiries and was informed the party would not be at risk.

He was told if the party legally bought the music from a production library and it held an Apra Amcos licence, it would be fine.

He said he was “embarrassed” to be asking the different groups about the safety of using the track.

“[They] couldn’t understand why I was asking about the appropriateness of using production music if they come from a recognised production library.

This will be an interesting case. I have a deep interest in copyright law, and of course politics.

The case will presumably determine if the song used was a “copy” of Lose Yourself or merely similar to it.  In the music industry it is very common for songs to be partly based on other music. How similiar you can be will be a key issue in the case, and may provide a precedent for future cases.

If the court does find the song used by National infringed copyright, I suspect they will then seek to recover any damages from the production library they purchased rights to the song they did use. The production library would have warranted that they had rights to that song, which National relied on – even explicitly checking.

The full new BPS targets

One of the better things this Government has done is to set targets for actual outcomes, rather than merely inputs (how much you spend) or outputs (what you purchase with it). My hoep is other major political parties will publish what their targets or outcomes would be if they get to form Government, so they can be measured against it. That means a meaningful measure such as “Median house price is no more than seven times median income” not just an output “Build 100,000 more houses”.

Anyway the original BPS targets were from 2012 to 2017, so new and revised ones from 2017 on are:

  1. 25% reduction of the number of people receiving main benefits by June 2018
  2. 90% of pregnant women are registering with a Lead Maternity Carer in the first trimester by 2021
  3. 25% reduction in the rate of hospitalisations of children for preventable conditions by 2021
  4. 20% reduction in the number of children experiencing a substantiated incidence of physical or sexual abuse by 2021
  5. 80% of year 8 students are achieving at or above the National Standard in writing and maths by 2021
  6. 60% of 25–34 year olds will have a qualification at Level 4 or above by 2018
  7. reduce the number of serious crimes by 10,000 by 2021
  8. 20% reduction in the median time to house for priority A clients on the social housing register by 2021
  9. business costs from dealing with government will reduce by 25% by 2021
  10. 80% of the twenty most common transactions will be completed digitally by 2021

$321 million social investment package

The Government has made a number of announcements today, mainly focused on a $321 million spending commitment on social investment to help the most disadvantaged families. Details are:

  • $321 million for social investment initiatives
  • $28 million for a national roll out of Family Start
  • $35 million for an expansion of behavioural services for young children
  • $6 million for a new programme to support pre-school children with oral language needs and literacy difficulties
  • New Better Public Services targets including
  • 90% of pregnant women to be registered with a lead maternity carer in their first trimester, up from 65%
  • Reducing the number of hospitalisations for children 12 and under with preventable conditions
  • Improving the literacy and numeracy of children – focusing on higher achievement of students in year 8
  • Reducing the number of serious crime victims by 10,000
  • Achieving a 20 per cent reduction in the time it takes to house priority clients on the social housing register.

The nice thing about this package, is it has obviously been driven by the research about what issues indicate a bad outcome for kids. So rather than just increase spending haphazardly, they are targeted at what seems to matter most:

  • Pregnant mothers not getting medical advice and support
  • untreated behavioural issues in young kids
  • young kids with communication issues
  • preventable hospitalisations
  • literacy and numeracy