Vegemite or Marmite?

• Nick Leggett: Vegemite
• Nicola Young: Vegemite
• Justin Lester: Vegemite
• Helene Ritchie: Vegemite
• Andy Foster: Vegemite
• Jo Coughlan: Vegemite

The only issue they all agree on!

Labour exodus: Two more press secretaries have quit. No chief press sec. No chief of Staff. A year until the election. #chaos

— Lloyd Burr (@LloydBurr) September 4, 2016

Someone on Twitter quipped that Labour press secretaries are now more endangered than pandas, so I stole that for the headline.

This sort of staff turnover is unusual at the best of times, but a year out from an election is unprecedented.

Newshub reports:

Winston Peters is caught up in a donations controversy after his New Zealand First party took $3000 from the founder of the new immigrant-focused People’s Party.

Newshub can reveal the money was taken after Mr Peters met with Indian businessman Roshan Nauhria over dinner at Auckland’s India Gate restaurant in the days before the 2014 election.

The donation is politically embarrassing for Mr Peters because he has been attacking the People’s Party as “race-based”, and personally criticising its acting leader Mr Nauhria for trying to donate money to John Key’s National Party.

Newshub has obtained a copy the $3000 cheque Mr Nauhria made out to NZ First.

Mr Nauhria says he handed the cheque to Mr Peters, who put it in his pocket – which Mr Peters refutes.

Pretty easy to decide who to believe. Which of the two lied for six months about his knowledge of the Owen Glenn donation, and was then found by the Privileges Committee to have misled Parliament?

Mr Nauhria recounted the sequence of events to Newshub, saying “I made, roughly in 2014, and I said it was India Gate, we had a function there it was arranged by Mahesh Bindra in connection with Giri Gupta and to arrange it. Giri Gupta first approached me for the donation, he wanted $5000 and I said ‘no I’ll give $3000’ and I gave $3000”. 

Asked about Mr Nauhria’s donation, Mr Peters initial response was to say: “Okay well, if that’s the case he’ll show you a receipt won’t he? Has he shown you the receipt? The number one thing you need to do is show me the evidence not just come along and repeat an allegation and think you are going to slide past it like that – that won’t do.”

The more he blusters the more he has been caught out.

Mr Peters refuted Mr Nauhria’s claim he took the cheque personally, saying: “That’s not true, I don’t take cheques and put them in my pocket”.

Even if there was photographic evidence of him having done so, he’d claim he didn’t out the cheque in his pocket, but just put an enveloped in his pocket, of which the cheque happened to be inside.

It is a timely reminder of all of the previous dodgy dealing Peters has had with donations – the incorrect donations returns, the Glenn donations, lobbying for a donor to made Honorary Consul to Monaco, undisclosed donations from the racing industry etc etc.

The Herald reports:

Green MP Kevin Hague is quitting Parliament to take on the top job at environmental organisation Forest and Bird.

The party confirmed this afternoon that Hague, the Greens’ third-ranked MP, had accepted the chief executive position at Forest and Bird and would be resigning as an MP.

He will be replaced by Auckland-based candidate Barry Coates, the former executive director of Oxfam New Zealand.

Greens’ co-leader Metiria Turei said the party was sorry to be losing Hague, who had “worked tirelessly and effectively” for the party.

“We will miss his passion and his wisdom,” co-leader James Shaw said.

Hague ran for the male co-leadership of the party last year, but was defeated by Shaw, a relative newcomer.

The West Coast-based MP was respected on both sides of the House, and would have been a certain minister in a potential Labour-Greens Government.

Among his biggest victories were lobbying for a culture change at ACC in 2012, and playing a leading role in the legalisation of same-sex marriage the same year.

Kevin is by far, in my opinion, the most effective Green MP. I enjoyed working with him on the same-sex marriage and Keep It 18 campaigns. I also of course have disagreed with him on many issues. But he was an MP who would work across party lines to get some wins on the board for what he believed.

I have little doubt he would have been Health Minister if there was a Labour-Green Government.

The fact he has decided to leave strongly suggests he doesn’t see that as likely.

Kevin will be an effective CEO for Forest & Bird. I wish him well there.

Nice to catch up with the rug version of @AndrewLittleMP at the Wallace Art Awards at Pah homestead.@michaelwoodnz pic.twitter.com/zzdmDHDvsh

— Glenda Fryer (@Maungawhau) September 5, 2016

Dear God the image burns on the retina.

For some reason a Labour Party activist though this was a good idea.

Enter your captions below.

The Guardian has a page where you can enter your demographics and see how many people are like you in the Australian Parliament.

Of the 226 MPs and Senators there are none who match my demographics.

The demographics overall are:

• 32% female
• 3% under 35 and 6% over 65
• 4% lesbian, gay or bisexual
• 24% Christian, 1.3% Muslim, 2.2% Jewish, 7.5% no religion (many did not answer)
• 8% from non English speaking background
• 2.2% indigenous

Hat Tip: Tim Blair

Nick Smith announced:

The Government intends to review the appropriateness of councils being involved in regulating Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), prompted by advice over a liver cancer treatment trial in Auckland, Environment Minister Dr Nick Smith says.

“A trial for liver cancer vaccine Pexa-Vec is being conducted at Auckland Hospital which involves a GMO. The new Auckland Unitary Plan prohibits the release of any GMO and would not allow any such future medical treatments,” Dr Smith says.

“It does not make sense for local councils to duplicate the role of the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) in regulating the use of GMOs in New Zealand. The EPA has taken a very cautious approach, approving only two GMOs in 20 years – an equine flu vaccine and the Pexa-Vec trial.

“The problem with councils regulating in this area is that they do not have the technical expertise, resulting in regulations that have unintended consequences. The further problem is that there are no biosecurity controls between councils, so having different rules on what organisms are allowed in different districts becomes a nonsense.”

We have had a Royal Commission that looked at all the evidence. The Greens demanded the Royal Commission and then rubbished it because it came to a different conclusion to them.

The EPA has expert scientists and take a very conservative approach towards GMO trials. They have the expertise to decide, rather than a bunch of Councillors who just respond to lobbying by activists.

“The advice on the Pexa-Vec trial at Auckland Hospital is that it would be prohibited under Auckland’s new plan. However, the RMA also provides for existing use rights and because the trial is already under way it can continue but could not be expanded. Any new programme involving another GMO treatment would also be prohibited in Auckland. I have been advised by the EPA that the use of GMOs in modern medicine is growing and that they expect further applications.

So the Auckland Council Luddites may have voted in favour of stopping GMO trial for a liver cancer vaccine! The Councils are disputing that it will block the trial, so this may be over-stated. But the core issue is that Councils should not be making decisions on this.

“I am seeking advice from the Ministry for the Environment on possible solutions. Options include changes in the law or regulations to clarify that approvals and controls on GMOs are to be determined by the EPA and not councils. Any changes that may flow from the advice will involve public consultation.”

The law should definitely change.

In the Dom Post:

Paul Bruce, Sue Kedgley, Daran Ponter, Roger Blakeley, John Klaphake and Russell Tregonning: The case for light rail for Wellington

This is a useful guide as to the six people whom you should not vote for under any circumstances.

You can be a huge fan of cycling, trains, buses, walking etc but you should not vote for these people as they ignore the evidence that every $100 spend on light rail returns a benefit of just $5.

As I blogged last month the Wellington Regional Council did an extensive study of the benefits and costs of the three main ways to increase public transport. Their findings:

• Bus priority – a return of $57 to $67 for every $100 spent
• Bus rapid transport – a return of $87 to $155 for every $100 spent
• Light rail – a return of $5 to $10 for every $100 spent

You must prevent these people from getting their hands on the regional chequebook. Otherwise us ratepayers will be landed with a bill ranging from $500 million (their estimate) to $1 billion (objective estimate) for their pet project.

John Key announced:

Prime Minister John Key today said Civil Defence, ACC, and Youth Minister Nikki Kaye will be taking leave from her Ministerial portfolios to deal with a health issue.

Ms Kaye was diagnosed with breast cancer on Friday and will shortly begin undergoing treatment.

“I have spoken with Nikki and assured her she has the full support of her colleagues and I as she deals with this difficult diagnosis,” Mr Key said.

“Her medical team is working hard to ensure a full recovery. Nikki will be dedicating her energy towards getting well, and I wish her all the best.

“I appointed Acting Ministers to Nikki’s portfolios on Friday and this will continue until she is able to return to her role.”

Gerry Brownlee will act as Minister of Civil Defence. Nathan Guy will act as Minister for ACC. Anne Tolley will act as Minister for Youth. Ms Kaye’s Associate Education responsibilities will be taken by Hekia Parata.

Nikki has also posted on Facebook about her situation. Obviously everyone who knows Nikki is shocked, but also we all know Nikki is an absolute fighter for causes she believes in, and will be just as strong in fighting this battle also.

I know that everyone across the political spectrum will be wishing Nikki the best, and times like this are a good reminder that what unites is far stronger than what we disagree on.

I’ve blogged at Curia the latest results in polling we did for NZ Republic on NZers preferences on who should be the next Head of State, when the Queen dies.

We’ve been asking the same question for four years now, and the results are summarised below:

It is the first time that the most popular choice has been a New Zealander elected by popular vote.

Danyl McL blogs:

I have no idea what’s happened in Andrew Little’s office, or why his Chief of Staff has stepped down. I haven’t even heard plausible rumours. But I keep reading these takes in which McCarten shifting back to Auckland is somehow ‘good news for Labour’ or ‘a smart strategic move’. It is neither of these things. Being without a Chief of Staff AND a Communications Director less than a year from the start of an election campaign is not smart, or strategic, it is a catastrophically bad position for a political party to be in: a harbinger of doom.

And according to Matthew Hooton in the comments two other press secretaries resigned this week, and a third resignation is expected shortly. If correct, this will be very destabilizing.

Those senior staffer positions are stressful. People burn out, or get fed up, or just want to do something else with their lives. But the Opposition Leader’s Chief of Staff is in line to become the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, who is one of the most powerful people in the country. It is a position a professional political operative willingly step downs from about as frequently as an Opposition Leader willingly steps down, ie pretty much never.

 

Curia’s 100th monthly polling newsletter is out. The summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 100, August 2016

There were two political voting polls in August 2016 – a Newshub Reid Research and a Roy Morgan. 

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in August, down 10% from July but the same as June. In July there was only one public poll.

The current seat projection is centre-right 57 seats, centre-left 51 which would see NZ First holding the balance of power.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States the race has narrowed in August with Trump now only 5% behind and projected to have a 29% chance of winning. Obama’s favourability continues to improve.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating hits a low of -33%, in stark contrast to Theresa May who is at +35%.

In Australia Malcolm Turnbull has had the opposite of a honeymoon, with his approval rating falling to -18% and below Shorten for the first time.

In Canada the dominance of the Liberals continues without challenge.

We also carry details of polls on cannabis, housing and Auckland plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself

 

Should fluoridation of the Wellington city water supply continue?

• Nick Leggett: Yes
• Nicola Young: Yes – but this is now a central government matter
• Justin Lester: Yes
• Helene Ritchie: I will decide when it comes up over and over and over again.
• Andy Foster: Yes – one of the decisions I was very pleased to see Government listen to Local Government pleas to give the decision making to the Health Boards
• Jo Coughlan: Yes

Five clear yes answers and one unclear answer.

The NYT reports:

Conservative commentators and die-hard Republicans often brush off denunciations of Donald Trump as an unprincipled hatemonger by saying: Yeah, yeah, that’s what Democrats wail about every Republican they’re trying to take down. Sing me a song I haven’t heard so many times before.

Howard Wolfson would be outraged by that response if he didn’t recognize its aptness.

“There’s enough truth to it to compel some self-reflection,” Wolfson, who was the communications director for Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2008, told me this week. …

“I worked on the presidential campaign in 2004,” he said, referring to John Kerry’s contest against George W. Bush. He added that he was also “active in discussing” John McCain when he ran for the presidency in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

“And I’m quite confident I employed language that, in retrospect, was hyperbolic and inaccurate, language that cheapened my ability — our ability — to talk about this moment with accuracy and credibility.”

Did Democrats cry wolf so many times before Trump that no one hears or heeds them now?

I think that is a very fair point. Every Republican from Reagan on has been painted as dangerous and extreme, when they were not. Reagan, Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43, McCain and Romney.

In Commentary, Noah Rothman has repeatedly examined this subject. He wrote back in March that when “honorable and decent men” like McCain and Romney “are reflexively dubbed racists simply for opposing Democratic policies, the result is a G.O.P. electorate that doesn’t listen to admonitions when the genuine article is in their midst.”

We see this in NZ also. If you oppose race based seats on Councils you get called a racist. Donald Trump is in fact a racist but Republicans have got used to all their candidates being called racist, so it doesn’t resonate – even though it should.

And this is a two-way street. Republicans paint a broad spectrum of Democrats as socialist kooks, and Obama has been as strong a magnet for hyperbole as any politician in my lifetime. Let us not forget Dinesh D’Souza’s 2010 book “The Roots of Obama’s Rage,” or Newt Gingrich’sassertion that “only if you understand Kenyan, anticolonial behavior” can you grasp Obama’s method of governing, or Trump’s insistence that Obama produce his American birth certificate.

Yep fault on both sides. Obama is a loyal American who has pursued policies he believes are best for America. I disagree with many of his policies and think he has been reasonably ineffectual, but all this nonsense that he (or Clinton) is a traitor is tiresome.

Stuff reports:

Helen Clark’s poor showings in the race to become the next United Nations boss mean “the only possible conclusion” is that she should pull out, a former runner-up for the role says.

Indian politician and former UN diplomat Shashi Tharoor, who came in second behind current UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon in the 2006 selection, told RNZ Clark was “an admirable candidate [with] excellent credentials” but could no longer hope to win the role.

I agree.

I was a supporter of Clark’s bid. To my surprise I even got enthusiastic about her winning, in the days before the straw polls – as she did well in the forums.

But the straw polls show she can’t win. You need nine votes to be able to win, and she only has had six in the last two polls. Only if every single other candidate was mutually vetoed, does she have a possibility of coming through – and that is incredibly unlikely.

She’s run a good campaign and the NZ Government has given her massive support. But in my personal view now is the time to withdraw. NZ has just begun the presidency of the Security Council and we’d have an easier time of it if we don’t have a candidate still in the mix.

NBR reported:

West Auckland chemist-turned-pharmaceutical entrepreneur Sir Graeme Douglas, 87, has died, it was revealed today.

He started his business empire in 1967 when as a chemist in Te Atatu he created a cough syrup called Kofsin, the first of many successful products.

The business also began importing specialist drugs, then packaging and distributing them to other chemists from the shop.

This enterprise evolved into Douglas Pharmaceuticals, which by the late 1980s was a major domestic supplier and exporter.

The company specialises in treatments for immuno-suppression, oncology, dermatology and the central nervous system but has recently expanded into nutrional products and sexual dysfunction.

An acne cream was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, a first by a New Zealand company.

In 2011, the company produced more than 455 million tablets, 270,000 litres as 31 tonnes of medicines, liquids and creams.

Today, run by son Jeff, Douglas Pharmaceuticals employs 450 people and supplies some 30 generic products to more than 60 customers in 35 countries from a $21 million facility in Henderson. Sales revenue of the family owned company exceeds $200 million annually.

An amazing success story where one pharmacist built a business employing 450 people.

Sir Graeme was a very generous person and a proud West Aucklander. He will be missed.

Rob Hosking argues for why Key should go the polls this year:

Labour is in disarray. It doesn’t have its list sorted and that will be a source of major division when it happens. It’s broke. Leader Andrew Little will only lose votes on the campaign trail – if you want to see a woeful performance, watch the Labour leader debate in Parliament against Mr Key. In televised debates, Mr Key is probably going to wipe the floor with him.

Mr Key might be tempted to drift on until the end of next year, when an election is most likely to take place

But governments do little of use in an election year.

The last one – 2014 – was when the government should have been doing what it is doing now on housing supply. Instead it spent nine months posing for selfies.

So: Get on with it. Pull the electoral pin once the local body elections are out of the way in October, hold a short campaign and turn 2017 into a year of meaningful achievement, not another circus.

Matthew Hooton disagrees:

Labour is now in its most parlous state in its 100-year history. In the past two elections, it suffered its worst two results since its formative years in the 1920s. It is now polling much worse than it did in 2010 and 2013, the years before those 27% and 25% debacles under Phil Goff and David Cunliffe.

The latest leader, Andrew Little, was not wanted by Labour MPs or party members, instead being imposed by the unions. He is now significantly more unpopular with New Zealand voters than Jeremy Corbyn with the British and, as National’s campaign chairman Steven Joyce picked so astutely, has an issue with anger.

Organisationally, Labour is broke, advising the Electoral Commission it received no donations above $15,000 last year. It has had no communications chief since May, after the departure of former NZ Woman’s Weekly editor Sarah Stuart. Its chief of staff, Matt McCarten, has been let go to set up an election headquarters in Auckland after a power struggle with finance spokesman Grant Robertson.

Labour has not just lost Stuart but also a second press secretary this week and rumours are a third has quit also.

So why does Hooton argue Key should wait?

Labour’s woes are structural, dating to its 2013 conference. There, the party took the disastrous decision, over the objections of then-leader Mr Shearer, to revise its constitution to transfer power from the MPs who face ordinary voters every weekend to its narrow activist base and faceless union bosses.

Consequently, like Labour in the UK, its leadership is no longer elected nor held accountable by MPs in touch with everyday issues but by activists and unionists more exercised by ideology. Not only has this imposed two failed leaders on the party against the judgement of its MPs, it has permanently orientated Labour away from the median voter. Instead, its focus is on activists and union bosses who genuinely believe – and demand – that Labour should concentrate on issues like free undergraduate degrees and ever-more hysterical denunciations of an alleged “neoliberal” government agenda that National activists can only dream might be true.

Thus, education spokesman Chris Hipkins screeching last week that Hekia Parata’s online learning initiative is “a Trojan horse for privatisation and an end to free public education” and housing spokesman Phil Twyford’s nutty demand the government declare a state of emergency over homelessness, something done since World War II only during the 1951 waterfront insurrection and after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

Normal people know such hyperbole is nonsense but not those running today’s Labour. Despite Labour’s disastrous polling, there is great calm among Labour’s Wellington elite that their leftward strategy is working. With the Greens, Winston Peters and perhaps Hone Harawira, they believe all that is left to form a government is to drop by Government House the Monday after the election.

 Still, instead of making his own trip to Government House this side of Christmas, Mr Key is best to let Labour’s myopia and its unattractive leader continue to work their magic on the polls, perhaps all the way to the last possible election date of November 18, 2017.

So Hosking thinks Labour can’t get much worse, while Hooton thinks they can.

Do you support the current closing times for CBD bars of 4am. If not, what time would you prefer?

• Nick Leggett: Yes.
• Nicola Young: Yes – the police must not dictate licensing policy
• Justin Lester: Yes, the current balance is good.
• Helene Ritchie: Earlier-we have to use a range of strategies to curb excessive drinking and singificant costs to individuals, families and our health system.
• Andy Foster: 4am is the national default time (in law). That works for me
• Jo Coughlan: Yes

So five candidates in favour of the status quo and one in favour of an earlier closing time.

There is literally no end to the demands being made by public health activists. Having convinced politicians that tobacco should have plain packaging, they now want to extend that to soft drinks. After that will come fast food, and then probably cuddly toys.

This is why overall I oppose plain packaging for tobacco. We know from history that despite tobacco being vastly different to any other product (it is highly addictive and massively decreases life expectancy) that the policies enacted for tobacco eventually end up being extended to other products.

The Herald reports:

Plain packaging is on the way for tobacco products in New Zealand but should it be extended to soft drinks?

Researchers from the University of Auckland say plain packaging and the kinds of warning labels found on cigarette packs could be an effective way to reduce childhood obesity.

Note the “could”. Almost anything “could” work.

The findings were published yesterday by the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity after an online survey of 604 young people who regularly drank soft drinks.

Participants viewed images of branded and plain-packaged soft drinks, some with a text or graphic warning and a 20 per cent tax, and their perceptions measured using rating scales.

So a self selecting survey of 600 people had them say what they thought they would do given different packaging.  This is very different to actually measuring the impact of a different design.

Stuff reports:

Sir Ngatata Love could lose his knighthood after being found guilty of defrauding his own iwi.

The 78 year-old was found guilty of obtaining property by deception in the Wellington High Court on Thursday, after a case which ran for much of August. …

A spokesman for Prime Minister John Key said the issue would not be considered until Love’s avenues for appeal had been exhausted.

“It would not be appropriate to comment at this stage. The Prime Minister will wait until any appeal period has expired before considering any question of forfeiture of honours.”

Previously Key has faced calls to strip Sir Doug Graham of his honour, however he decided not to do so. Part of the reason was that while Graham was knighted for his work in Treaty Settlements, his conviction, as director of Lombard, was for breaching his duties as a director.

Love meanwhile, was knighted for services to Maori, and has now been convicted for defrauding his iwi.

I think the knighthood should go. His case differs from Sir Douglas’ in two important ways.

• Graham did not personally profit from his offences (in fact he lost a lot of money also)
• Graham’s honour was for services in a very different area to his conviction. Love got knighted for his services to Maori, and he was in fact ripping them off

But of course this has to wait until any appeals are dealt with, if they occur.

Stuff reports:

Labour is apparently close to endorsing a tax on sugary drinks – with health spokeswoman Annette King saying there is growing evidence and support for such a measure.

Once again Labour looks to steal a policy from the Greens and move further to the left.

The commission – co-chaired by the Prime Minister’s chief science adviser Professor Sir Peter Gluckman – cited research by Mexican health officials on the 10 per cent surcharge on sugary drinks that was introduced there three years ago.

Health advocates and some Mexican senators are now urging for that tax to be doubled, as sales of fizzy drinks have largely recovered after an initial drop.

So the tax has failed, which means the activists demand it be increased. If the tax reduces consumption they will demand it be retained as working, and if it fails to reduce consumption they demand it be doubled!

And as it happens the focus is on the wrong thing. If you want to reduce obesity you need to reduce calories, not just one small source (1.6% on average) of calories.

In NZ even if a sugar tax reduced consumption of soda drinks by 10% (being generous) it would reduce average daily calories by 3 a day!! Now the activists will argue obese people drink more soda drinks that the average. So let us again be generous and assume an obese person drinks twice as much as the average. They will consume six fewer calories a day!

And this is all dependent on a third generous assumption – that there is no substitution.

So how long does it take for a sugar tax to get someone who is obese to be non-obese?

Well if we make the three generous assumptions of:

1. A sugar tax will reduce soda consumption by 10%
2. An obese person drinks twice as many sodas as the average person
3. There will be zero substitution

The sugar tax will take 64 years to get an obese person non-obese!!

Remember this when Labour announces their support for a new tax.