Michael Gove has announced:

I have repeatedly said that I do not want to be Prime Minister.

That has always been my view. But events since last Thursday have weighed heavily with me. I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership.

In particular, I wanted to help build a team behind Boris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.

But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead. I have, therefore, decided to put my name forward for the leadership.

This really heats things up.

The Conservative Party rules are their caucus votes first and the top two candidates then go to a ballot of party members.

It is possible Theresa May and Michael Gove could get the most votes from MPs, meaning Boris won’t even be on the ballot for the members – where he has the most support.

So far the declared (or about to declare) contenders are:

• Stephen Crabb (Welfare Secretary)
• Liam Fox (former Defence Secretary)
• Michael Gove (Justice Secretary)
• Boris Johnson (former Mayor of London)
• Theresa May (Home Secretary)

UPDATE: Boris has decided not to stand. Wow UK politics is exciting at the moment!

Crikey’s Poll Bludger is forecasting:

• Coalition 42%
• Labor 34%
• Greens 11%
• Xenophon Team 4%
• Palmer United 0%

On a two party preferred basis that is:

• Coalition 51%
• Labor 49%

The seat projections is:

• Coalition 80 (-10)
• Labor 66 (+11)
• Others 4 (-1)

The betting markets have the Coalition paying just $1.11 and Labor $8.00 so a Labor win would be a huge upset. A hung Parliament is at $5.50.

The Senate is far more difficult to forecast with the voting preferences but Crikey says most likely is:

• Queensland – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 1, Others 2 (Katter, One Nation)
• Victoria – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (Sex Party)
• NSW – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (LDP)
• WA – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (LDP)
• SA – Coalition 4, Labor 3, Greens 1, Xenophon 4
• Tasmania – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Others 1 (Lambie)
• ACT – Coalition 1, Labor 1
• NT – Coalition 1, Labor 1

So in total this would be Coalition 31, Labor 25, Greens 10, Xenophon 4, LDP 2, Others 4. You need 39 votes to pass in the Senate so the small parties will hold the balance of power on this forecast.

What about the joint setting to pass the laws that triggered the double dissolution. You have a combined 226 MPs voting so need 114 to pass a law in a joint setting.

80 plus 31 is 111. So they again will need Independents or another party. With LDP they get close at 113.

But this is all forecasts. We’ll see tomorrow how it ends up. With a non-proportional system, results can vary much more greatly than under MMP etc.

Stuff reports:

The fight for food has begun in Venezuela. On any day, in cities across this increasingly desperate nation, crowds form to sack supermarkets. Protesters take to the streets to decry the sky-rocketing prices and dwindling supplies of basic goods. The wealthy improvise, some shopping online for food that arrives from Miami. Middle-class families make do with less: coffee without milk, sardines instead of beef, two daily meals instead of three. The poor are stripping mangos off the trees and struggling to survive.

That socialism is working well then. Haven’t managed stuff like this since the old USSR.

The political stakes are mounting. Exhausted by government-imposed power blackouts, spiralling crime, endless food lines, shortages of medicine and waves of looting and protest, citizens are mobilising against their leaders. In recent days, Venezuelans lined up to add their names to a recall petition that aims to bring down the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, and put an end to the socialist-inspired “revolution” ignited 17 years ago by Hugo Chavez.

A pity he isn’t around to see how successful his revolution is.

Under Chavez, the government established a network of government-run supermarkets that sold basic foods at subsidised prices. But inflation has put even these bargains out of reach for many people. A single kilogram of yucca – about two pounds – now costs about one-third of the weekly minimum wage.

I await Labour to launch this as policy and call it Kiwimarkets!

Venezuela’s ability to produce food and other goods has dwindled over the years as the government has expropriated private companies, expanded price controls, and otherwise discouraged private production. Corn, rice and other foods once grown domestically now have to be imported.

But they have less income inequality now as they got rid of the private companies!

“There is no humanitarian crisis,” Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez told an Organisation of American States meeting last week.

We have always been at war with Eurasia.

NBR reported:

Australian publisher APN News & Media has reached a binding heads of agreement with the Inland Revenue Department to settle its alleged tax avoidance case and other disputed tax issues for $36.3 million.

Isn’t this curious.

The NZ Herald spends a lot of time and space highlighting how certain companies (which happen to compete with them) don’t pay much tax. Those companies have never ever been found to have illegally avoided or evaded tax.

However the Herald’s owners have admitted to underpaying their tax by $36 million, and now have to pay it back. Yet how much publicity does this get in the Herald?

Stuff reports:

Bush said police also backed Hansen’s finding that Rewa committed the rape and murder by himself.

However, they had received legal advice that the report confirming Pora’s innocence did not constitute the “exceptional circumstances” required to lift the stay of proceedings against Rewa.

“If we could revisit that again we would, but as you know there’s a stay in terms of that prosecution and we have no new evidence in order to put that before the court again.

“I can tell you that we have made efforts and at this stage, that’s the end of that matter.”

Hopefully the evidence can be found, but I suspect Rewa will never get parole anyway so the matter is somewhat academic. But if new evidence can be located, it would be good to try Rewa again for the murder.

Stuff reports:

Rates bills across Wellington will increase by an average of 3.6 per cent, after the city council set its budget in stone for the next financial year.

Councillors signed off on the city’s 2016-17 Annual Plan on Wednesday, striking an average rates increase of 5.4 per cent for residential ratepayers and an average 2.7 per cent increase for commercial ratepayers – equating to a hike of 3.6 per cent across the city.

Inflation is at 0.4% so the overall rates hike is nine times the level of inflation and for households the increase is 13 times the level of inflation.

My wish is for all Mayoral and Council candidates to state a maximum level of rates increase they will vote for. I think 2% (the midpoint of the inflation target) is a suitable maximum.

The last time a Labor Government in Australia delivered a surplus was in 1989, and this video reminds us of how different the world was back then/. Very effective.

NBR reports:

Controversial blogger Cameron Slater is taking a sabbatical from his Whale Oil site.

Comparing the move to what conservative US political blogger Andrew Sullivan “regularly did,” Mr Slater says he will be taking time out from managing the blog “for at least a month, and probably two months.”

The sabbatical starts on July 4; standing in for Mr Slater in his absence will be Pete Belt, who has been working on the site “for several years now.”

According to Mr Slater, his decision to take a break has been prompted by two things: “a couple of other projects that need some attention” and his “need [for] a rest after an intense couple of years.”

Of the latter, he says, “Having blogged constantly for 11 years this will actually be my first real break.

“So my first priority will be to get in some good hunting in what remains of the game bird season, and knock over a few deer, pigs and goats as well.”

A sabbatical sounds a great way to recharge the batteries. I hope Cam enjoys the break.

Patrick Gower writes:

Andrew Little should apologise to tax expert John Shewan for treating him with utter contempt and total disrespect.

Mr Little has been caught out big time — and it serves him right.

Mr Little got things wrong about Mr Shewan and has to put them right.

So Mr Little issued a retraction — at 5:17pm on Saturday, June 18 — two hours and 18 minutes before kick-off of the Wellington Test.

This is so cynical it is sad. Everybody knows that is the absolutely dead time in a media cycle when it would get the least attention. It is cunning and awful and rude and Mr Little’s actions show why people distrust politicians.

Now things have bounced back on Mr Little and his own credibility is being called into question — and it serves him right.

A lot of this is arcane and complex but it is important because Mr Little is auditioning to be Prime Minister. His actions and his words are important.

Mr Little yesterday repeatedly said that Mr Shewan did not ask him for an apology about incorrect statements made about him.

So then Mr Shewan pulled out a letter to Mr Little that said: “I now request the statement I sent to you yesterday be issued with the following additions: ‘I apologise to Mr Shewan for any embarrassment I have caused him through my statements’.”

Sadly for Mr Little, it doesn’t get much clearer than that. Contrary to his public claims, Mr Shewan asked for an apology.

Mr Shewan has produced an excellent report,. Labour has been quoting it in Parliament and saying it is good. But previously Little was accusing Shewan of being involved in helping the Bahamas stay a tax haven. He admits he was totally wrong on this, but won’t apologise to Shewan for the smear of his reputation.

Stuff reports:

New Plymouth’s only Maori councillor has signalled a desire to move into national politics.

During Saturday’s Maui Pomare Day celebrations at Waitara’s Owae Marae, Howie Tamati formally announced his intention to seek the candidacy to represent the Maori Party at next year’s general election.

The first step in the process is for Tamati to be selected by the party to be the person who will contest the Te Tai Hauauru seat, a decision which is not likely until the end of the year. At this stage it is unknown how many other candidates he will go up against.

Tamati said he felt it was the “opportune” moment to declare his political ambitions to his people, on his home marae.

In May, Tamati announced he would not seek re-election onto the New Plymouth District Council, 15 years after he was first elected.

Tamati is of course also well known to rugby league fans.

Labour’s Adrian Rurawhe only won the seat by 1,554 votes and has been fairly low profile, so the seat may be competitive.

The WSJ reports:

Donald Trump offered a starkly protectionist view on trade policy, pledging for the first time on Tuesday to scrap the current North American Free Trade Agreement while saying he would label China a currency manipulator and kill America’s involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

“I’m going to tell our NAFTA partners that I intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers,” said Mr. Trump, adding that if they don’t agree to favorable terms, “America intends to withdraw from the deal.”

Trump on trade is to the left of the Greens. I don’t think even the Greens advocate tearing up trade agreements already in place.

Bryan Gould writes:

It is amazing and wonderful that ordinary British people have at this late stage – after 43 years of membership – refused to be bullied and patronised by their supposed betters, by so-called experts and powerful financial interests, into betraying their own experience and judgment. The result is a new start for both Britain and Europe and a new and better prospect for both.

Gould also looks at Corbyn’s arguments for staying:

Jeremy Corbyn has – through timidity rather than conviction – put himself on the losing side and missed the chance to exploit for Labour the unavoidable blow to the authority of the Tory Government that the Brexit decision represents.

He took refuge in an argument for remaining that should surely have no place in the vocabulary of a Labour leader. He urged Labour supporters to vote remain on the surprising ground that there were provisions, particularly concerning workers’ rights, that were beyond the reach of democratic change by an elected British Government.

How odd that Labour should endorse the concept of government by an unelected European bureaucracy.

Corbyn’s argument was that an unelected EU could protect workers from democracy in the UK!

How much more constructive and politically astute if he had faithfully represented the views of Labour voters (and almost certainly his own personal preference) as a step towards a democratically elected Labour Government that would have been the best protector of workers’ rights.

Well that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Stuff reports:

Patients and politicians who lobbied hard for the melanoma drug Keytruda to be publicly funded may be about to have their wish fulfilled.

The Government’s drug funding agency Pharmac, which recently announced a decision to fund the alternative drug nivolumab (Opdivo) for patients with advanced melanoma from next month, has announced a provisional deal with the maker of Keytruda.

In a statement on its website it said it had “reached a commercially favourable provisional agreement with Merck Sharpe and Dohme (MSD)… for the supply of pembrolizumab (Keytruda)” and was seeking feedback on a proposal to fund it “for patients with advanced melanoma, subject to Special Authority criteria”.

I can almost guarantee you this will be at a very significantly cheaper rate than they previously sought.

When a drug company has the only product on the market they will seek a huge price for that. That is of course their right and in their best interests. And when Pharmac won’t pay it, they often will try and create a campaign to build public support for it, so they are in a strong bargaining position.

By not having politicians over-ride Pharmac (as Little demanded), Pharmac announced a funding deal with a alternative drug that had now reached an acceptable stage. And suddenly as there is an alternative, the price for Keytruda will become more flexible and MSD decides better to have some of the market for this sort of drug at a reduced rate, rather than none of the market at their original rate.

Now I don’t blame MSD. They act in their own best interests as they should. But a good lesson as to why politicans (and National have sinned here also) should not over-ride Pharmac on the back of a lobbying campaign.

The Herald reports:

Despite what we like to think – wealth is not evenly distributed in New Zealand, in fact it’s the worst it’s been in over a decade.

Statistics New Zealand’s wealth share of individuals shows the top 10 per cent of people have almost 60 per cent of wealth.

The figures are for the year to June 2015.

Labour market and household statistics manager Diane Ramsay said it was the biggest divide between the rich and poor since 2003.

She said it was possibly worse, but when records began in 2001 slightly different questions were asked of slightly different demographics.

What was evident was the inequality of net worth distribution that continued to grow.

Divides across ethnic groups continue; European people have an individual median net worth of $114,000 compared to $33,000 for people of Asian descent, $23,000 for Maori, and $12,000 for Pacific people.

Our youth are amongst the poorest in society. People aged between 15-24 had the lowest individual median net worth of any age group, just $1000 and most young people have not yet accumulated assets but do have debt.

The most common debt is accumulated through loans for further education.

The numbers are similar per household, half the country’s wealth belongs to the top 10 per cent of households.

In stark contrast the bottom 40 per cent of households hold just 3 per cent of total wealth.

This has the usual suspects up in arms, upset that we don’t have a communist society where it is illegal to be wealthy.

The reality is the overall statistics are almost meaningless. Because it assumes all households are comparable. They’re not.

Take for example age. Here is the median net wealth for individuals by age:

• Under 25: $1,000
• 25 to 34: $26,000
• 35 to 44: 96,000
• 45 to 54: $182,000
• 55 to 64: $278,000
• 65+: $288,000

So when people complain about inequality, they may be complaining that a 21 year old doesn’t have the same wealth as a 55 year old. As in somehow someone who has never worked should have the same wealth as someone after 30 years of working.

Also look at median wealth per type of household:

• Couple no kids $489,000
• Couple one kid $248,000
• Sole parent: $26,000

Now is it any surprise that if a couple decides not to have kids, they have more money than a couple who does? Likewise any surprise that a one income household has less wealth that a two income household?

The focus should be on equality of opportunity, not equality of wealth. Communist countries claim to have equality of wealth (in fact everyone is equally poor except the rulers).  Let’s focus on improving educational outcomes for the most disadvantaged families, not creating a mindset that wealth is static, and that a wealthy household has somehow taken it off a poor household.

Stuff reports:

A New Zealander that was kidnapped and released in Nigeria has sustained injuries that weren’t “life-threatening”, says Prime Minister John Key.

Kiwi Jamal Khan and three Australians were kidnapped in a deadly attack in Nigeria and were rescued four days after being taken hostage by gunmen.

“I have some information about Mr Khan’s health and well-being,” Key said on Monday, having been informed on Sunday night.

For privacy reasons, Key couldn’t share much about Khan’s injuries except to say: “None of the injuries he sustained are life-threatening.”

Pleased he has been freed, along with the Aussies. Details seem murky on how he was freed, but I imagine will become clearer in time.

NBR reports:

Party unity will keep US Democrats from opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), despite both of the party’s leading presidential nominees saying they are against the deal.

Members of the Democratic National Convention platform committee have decided to move against including a specific opposition to the TPP to the party’s platform (essentially, it’s manifesto for the November election).

The attempt failed because both members appointed by Hillary Clinton and DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz say it is inappropriate to oppose the TPP when US President Barack Obama is supportive of the deal.

Clinton’s opposition to TPP is insincere. Her husband did the same – campaigned against NAFTA, but then endorsed it.

If Clinton wins, I’d say there is a reasonable chance it will pass in the lame duck session of Congress with support from mainly Republicans but also some Democrats.

If Trump wins, then far harder for Republicans to vote for it, when the President-Elect has campaigned so vigorously against it.

So the best chances for Jane Kelsey and co of stopping TPP, is for Trump to win.

The Herald reports:

Police are frustrated at the number of licensed premises in Auckland’s suburbs selling alcohol to minors.

In a sting operation over the weekend, four of the six on-licence premises Auckland police targeted served alcohol to under-18s.

Auckland City Police Prevention Manager Inspector Gary Davey called the result “hugely disappointing”.

“These premises are ignoring their responsibilities under the Sale and Supply of Alcohol Act.”

The six bars were all in Auckland’s central suburbs, with several in Onehunga and Epsom.

One of the premises served alcohol to a 15-year-old who presented ID clearly showing their age, Inspector Davey said.

The result is similar to other recent sting operations in the Auckland City Police District.

One operation in March saw five out of seven bars serve alcohol to 16 and 17-year-olds.

In this area I think the Police do very good work. Bars need to be not just asking for ID, but checking it. If they don’t, then they should get sanctions.

I’d much rather the Police put more resources into enforcing the laws we have, rather than trying to change the law by insisting that certain types of alcohol should not be sold, or they’ll object to a licence.

The Herald reports:

Tax expert John Shewan says that claims by Andrew Little that he did not seek an apology from the Labour leader are misleading.

“The statement that I never asked for an apology is completely incorrect,” Mr Shewan told the Herald today.

Mr Little told reporters this morning that he did not apologise to Mr Shewan, a former PwC chairman, over incorrect statements he made about his background in April because he was never asked to.

“I wasn’t asked to provide an apology. I was asked to provide his assurance that the media report I relied on was wrong.”

He added: “[Mr Shewan] explicitly said ‘I don’t need you to apologise, I want a correction of a statement’, and that’s what I’ve done.” …

But when Mr Little failed to issue a retraction for nearly two months, he wrote back to Mr Little’s office on June 10 and asked for the retraction to be expanded to include an apology.

“I specifically asked for an apology, that being because of the prolonged delay in getting the [comments corrected],” he said.

Mr Shewan said the Labour leader’s office rejected this request. He was also told that any further correspondence should be sent to Mr Little’s lawyer.

On the evening of June 18, a Saturday, Mr Little issued a statement retracting his comments, but stopped short of an apology.

Mr Shewan said he had been reluctant to take legal action while he was undertaking the inquiry into foreign trusts, which was publicly released yesterday.

But he was “dismayed” at Mr Little’s latest comments, and would not rule out further action.

“I’m not prepared to sit by and let him say anything more defamatory.

“I would prefer not to take any legal action and I think it is unlikely that I would. But I don’t just sit around and let people defame me. It’s just not on.”

Getting to be a bit of a trend here with the Hagaman defamation case also.

The Herald article includes the e-mail from Shewan to Little’s office which explicitly seeks an apology.

For Little to claim Shewan never asked for an apology means there are only really two possible options:

1. Little’s office didn’t show Little the letter
2. Little is lying

Stuff reports:

Some Kiwi children are leaving school having being failed for their entire education, a new report reveals.

School quality reports from the Education Review Office (ERO) reveal as of June last year 185 schools were in ERO’s worst performing category.

Of those schools, one-third were “persistent” poor performers and some had repeatedly failed students for at least a decade – spanning the entire schooling career of their students, says the New Zealand Initiative report.

That kind of underperformance wouldn’t be tolerated in other sectors but is “accepted in education”.

“If restaurants were repeatedly failing hygiene standards or if hospitals were constantly killing patients they’d be shut down. But we accept it with schools,” says NZ Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich.

Only in state schools. The good thing about the charter school model is a poorly performing charter school gets shut down. While there appear to be around 60 state schools that have been persistently failing – yet carry on.

The resignations have reached an unprecedented level. So far there have been:

• 20 members of the Shadow Cabinet resign
• 18 junior shadow ministers resign
• Nine parliamentary private secretaries resign

Corbyn’s new shadow cabinet has MPs in it who were elected just a year ago.

There are a number of ways they may sack Corbyn. The main three are:

1. Have a formal challenge to him triggering a leadership election and if fewer than 35 MPs and MEPs nominate him, he can’t stand (this is a matter of some dispute and could end up in court)
2. Have a contested leadership election and hope they get a majority of members and supporters voting to replace him
3. Elect their own leader of the parliamentary party, and insist the Speaker recognises him or her as Leader of the Opposition leaving Corbyn as leader of the extra parliamentary party but without funds or staff

Any of these paths may tear the Labour Party apart. And leaving Corbyn as Leader will almost certainly mean the Conservatives win the upcoming election.

UPDATE: Corbyn has lost a confidence vote 40 to 172. So less than 20% of his caucus support him. To be fair to him though that is a greater percentage than Andrew Little got when he was elected leader – Little had the confidence of only four MPs!

Spoilers and speculation follow.

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