HoS on Auckland Central
The Herald on Sunday looks at the race for Auckland Central, and profiles National candidate Nikki Kaye.
I calculated in March, that based on an average swing, National would win Auckland Central if it beats Labour by 13% in the electorate vote. Of course swings are never average – as local factors always are a big influence.
But the calculations I did in March got me thinking that it would be useful to do an electoral pendulum showing what seats would swap hands at different levels of vote – if the swing applies consistently across the board. So I’ll work on that in my spare time.
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Tags: Auckland Central, National, Nikki Kaye
May 4th, 2008 at 9:03 am
A very interesting piece. Look , it’s no surprise that the mad harridan Queen of Westmere is under threat this election. Tizard’s performance has been simply atrocious.
A younger, fresher, liberal face for Auckland Central could well tip out Tizard. What will be fascinating is the change in demographics for this seat. The large number of polynesian and working class residents of the 1960s-1990s has made way for the Toyota Prius Coffee Drinkers association, (associate sponsor Mike Pero Mortgages). I have a feeling that the increased gentrification, mixed with middle-class and upper middle-class mortgage pressure and a lazy incumbent MP will be a wonderful opportunity for National this year.
May 4th, 2008 at 10:34 am
The other big factor in the electorate vote swing is the boundary changes – for instance Rimutaka (maj 8000 to Labour) has lost Naenae (about 2000 Labour votes) to Hutt South, and picked up Belmont in it’s place (who voted overwhelmingly for Peter Dunne).
May 4th, 2008 at 11:09 am
I live in Akld Central, and have to say I never see Judith around, only on TV, and then usually in Wellington. I think the mood is against her here now, a lot of people talking about not giving her their vote as she does nothing in the electorate.
As she apparently once said, “It’s very difficult being a member of NZ’s equivalent to the Kennedys “
May 4th, 2008 at 11:21 am
great profile!
May 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Never see Judith around ?
Never get up from your computer either
May 4th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Says Ghostie, whose third iteration has 167 comments, more than Mike S who he accuses of never getting up from his computer. Seems that Ghostie is the one who is chained to the PC.
Maybe Ghostie has some kind of Autistic Spectrum Disorder that makes it hard for him to relate to people.
May 4th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Sorry guys, but my take on this is that Judith Tizard will win Auckland Central – not because she is a better MP; not because she is an effective MP; not even because of her name. She will win because for the majority of Auckland Central voters, they just don’t give a stuff either way, so it is easier for them to vote for the encumbant, as opposed to raising themselves from their plush sofas and reading the Candidates booklet.
May 4th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Gee Ghostie … I bet that ‘put-down’ right uppercut from Sushi Goblin 11.59 hurt.
May 4th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
so fat,lazy, aggressive, underperforming handbag gets back into auckland central, and achieves what precisely?
My Hat goes off to Matt Rata incidentally, for taking one for the team.
May 4th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Letterman, Auckland Central is one of the most marginal Labour-held seats in the country, and Tizard has been unpopular in it for years. The difference this time is that National has a better candidate, the boundary changes favour National, many of the new residents in the CBD are National voters, and Labour are well down in the polls compared to last time. While nothing is certain, the right campaign will see Tizard out on her considerable arse.
May 4th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
If Tizard was to win again in Auckland it should come as no suprise to the population of this city why the rest of the country refer to it as dorkland.
May 4th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Auckland Central has been given a great opportunity to elect an energetic, determined, fantastic all-rounder this election. I can’t for the life of me think why they would vote for the lazy, underwhelming, arrogant individual Tizard again. She really has been given every opportunity to achieve, well…something…anything? And has been a complete failure with the exception of being able to feather her nest, and safeguard the family tradition of net-loss achievement.
I can believe Tizard thinks of herself as our equivalent of the Kennedy’s. Supreme self importance and arrogance is her forte.
Best of luck to Kaye
May 4th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
..Kaye says she worked with black minority groups, managing welfare-to-work schemes, project managed a transport system for disabled people and worked six months for a Labour minister.
Who was it that said that most people lie on their CV. A good test case to find out. Unless of course she has been ‘mis quoted’
May 4th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
well it couldn’t have been Helen Clarke who said it, she said “most people get confused on their CV”
May 4th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Blair M: Then why does she keeping winning the seat?
May 4th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
“As she [Tizard] apparently once said, “It’s very difficult being a member of NZ’s equivalent to the Kennedys “>
Did she give any indication as to which members of her family correlated to which members of the Kennedys?
For example, who does she see her mother as being the counterpart of? Edward Kennedy? They ARE both pissheads, so fair enough.
Perhaps her father could be JFK or RFK. It’s a bit of a stretch: after all, they had Marilyn Monroe, while he preferred Auckland strippers.
I guess that leaves the question of who she sees as her counterpart. My money would be on JFK’s old labrador cross.
May 4th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
BlairM – the right campaign and the right candidate can win any electorate. I suspect that there will be some rather big shocks for some on Election night. 6 months ago no one had given a guy called Obama middle in the US any hope. No one 6 months out expected Clarkson to win Tauranga or Goodhew to win Aoraki in 2005. I expect on both sides similar things to happen in 2008. In the end it is only the party vote of each party that determines who is govt.