Massacre in Mt Albert
As TV One ran the headline last night “Massacre in Mt Albert”, someone quipped that David Bain had moved into the electorate 
Instead it was of course a poll result for the by-election, and the headline wasn’t hyperbole.
Full poll results are at Curiablog.
David Shearer is polling at the same level Helen Clark got in 2008 – 59%. He will be pleased with that. Melissa Lee is at 21% – 8% below the 2008 result. Russel Norman at 15% has improved by 95% on their 2008 result, and John Boscawen at 3% is just 1% off ACT’s 2008 candidate vote in Mt Albert.
They also asked a party vote question. Labour are up 5% from 2008, and National up 1%. I would be careful about reading too much into that, as the latest Roy Morgan has Labour down 3% and National up 7% from the election. However that poll, while partly post-budget was pre-Worth.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:30 am
However that poll, while partly post-budget was pre-Worth.
I think the impact of the budget has yet to be felt. I don’t think Worth will impact on the National poll results at all – he’s not a cabinet Minister and it doesn’t effect their ability to govern the country; I think Goff will do well out of it since this is his first moment in the spotlight as party leader; Key might take some very minor hit.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:31 am
John Key must feel like a twat for choosing Melissa Lee over Ravi Musuku. Musuku might even have made it a race. Crap strategy from the 9th floor.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:39 am
And yet, anyone who would vote for a bunch that have left NZ financially crippled (after 9 years of huge tax income) need some serious psycho work.
Melissa lee was a poor choice, in hindsight. She has a serious case of foot-in-mouth-itis.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:42 am
The Worth stuff will fade but the bigger problem for the govt is the performance of the PMs office over the past month. When they come up for their job reviews next they may have some tough questions to answer.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Dosn’t matter, Mt Albert will just be turned into strip malls, motorways and parking lots regardless of who the stupid inbreeds vote for.
June 8th, 2009 at 9:57 am
There is no doubt in my mind that National chose the wrong candidate hee and that isn’t a swipe at Melissa Lee.
National knew who Labour were choosing and they had an opportunity to match or better that.
Think of it like picking a cricket bowling line up; you chose bowlers who you think will most trouble the batsmen, not who you think will change the look of the team.
I bet that if National could wind back the clock OR had thought they could actually have won this they would have chosen differently.
June 8th, 2009 at 10:41 am
“Boscawen at 3% is just 1% off ACT’s 2008 candidate vote ”
Or put another way, the support is 25% less than they got at the General Election.
June 8th, 2009 at 10:56 am
What’s happened to the blogmobile? Did it get a flat-tyre, or did you find that underneath the fancy paintwork it was just an empty vessel?
[DPF: Blogmobile has been in action and we were at the Mt Albert MTC last night which I will blog later today]
June 8th, 2009 at 11:21 am
They found 15 people in Mt Albert who said they would vote ACT? Wow. There is an aspect of this that no is talking about – it is partially a referendum on the 3.6% Mussolini’s handling of the SuperCity debacle. Thanks to Rodney, with every day that goes by, the SuperCity is now a slow burning disaster for the government.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:27 am
There must be a lot of Nat supporters swapping sides here, and they don’t seem to be going to ACT. Its a pity they didn’t do any follow q’s- Is it because of the Nat candidate? Or is it Supercity/Motorway/Worth/the Budget?
June 8th, 2009 at 11:37 am
it is partially a referendum on the 3.6% Mussolini’s handling of the SuperCity debacle
I wasn’t aware there was a Mussolini involved in the Super City planning? Do you lefties ever tire of trying to link National to the facist parties of the past? Or is this the only ammo you tards have got?
Nothing to worry about then.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Melissa Lee has indeed put her foot in her mouth far too often.
Shearer strikes me as a nice guy, but no charisma at all.
But after Mellissa’s performance, he just has to keep looking nice and wait till polling day.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Ignore the knockers Melissa, Shearer will never look as nice as you. You are strikingly beautiful. Anyway the voters seems to be indicating dissatisfaction about the new motorway. The tunnel that Liabour promised is preferred and the doubling of support for NORMAN indicates many want no motorway anywhere near their suburb, some indication also they don’t want a super city. The odds against her were always too high.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
If Shearer maintains Clark’s majority this is a serious vote against National. Coupled with a poor showing by Act it’s an indictment against the cosy coalition now turning to shite. The honeymoon is well & truly over for Key. More & more he’s revealing his ethical bankrupcy & his competence is in question. By declaring Banksie as Supa Mayor Key revealed how he is totally out of touch with the mechanisms of politics. As for Mellissa ‘look hey whatever’ Lee, she’s so unsavy it’s surprising she isn’t Worths mistress.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
I would expect the Greens vote to increase from where it is actually, with some marginal Labour/Greens voters knowing the electorate is now safe from a National win giving Russel a boost to ensure he at least comes second.
Pushing Melissa Lee into third would be hilarious.
Oh, and where’s Boscawen’s comments now? “It’s a two horse race between Act & Labour”.
LOL.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Melissa Lee – NZ’s answer to Sarah Palin
IIRC there was a kiwiblog write-up of Melissa Lee pre- Nov08… something along the lines of “This is Melissa Lee – isn’t she pretty? And smart, she has her own businesses etc etc. Who wouldn’t vote for her?”
June 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
If its a two horse race which end of the horse is Boscawen?
June 8th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Ratbaiter, New Zealands answer to the question no one asked.
June 8th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Shearer’s recent shameless attendance at South-Auckland Christian church services obviously hasn’t done him any harm!
June 8th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
“someone quipped that David Bain had moved into the electorate” Ha – very good.
I heard the latest All Black team to face France will include David Bain as a replacement for Ritchie McCaw
Sure he’s not as fast but he’ll leave the 1st five for dead
June 8th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
As Mt Albert voter, I haven’t a clue about all the polling and trends, but I do know that none of the candidates seem overly keen on knocking on doors and doing the polite thing by simply ASKING people for their vote. Rather they prefer to accost poor shoppers in St Luke’s. Why don’t Kiwi politicians door knock instead of filling up my “no junk mail” post box with dead trees?
June 8th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Bearhunter: I heard some have been doorknocking but it is huge if not impossible job to get through an entire electorate in the time frame given. In regards your “No junk mail” on the letterbox. Election material is officially not classified as junk mail (exempted from Wellington) and is therefore able to be placed in every letterbox.
June 8th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Sounds like the punters in MT Albert ( sorry bearhunter ) must have bloody rocks in their heads, are they still throwing back the chardonnay, must be. Why the hell would you vote Liarbore, it’s a wasted vote. If Shearer gets in what the hell can he do for his constituents, he’s an irrelevancy. His voice in parliament will mean nothing. Would it not be better to vote Lee at least she has the ear of the cabinet and any issues arising in Mt Albert would probably be seen in a better light with a more receptive attitude. But never mind I could never figure townies.
June 8th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
I wasn’t aware there was a Mussolini involved in the Super City planning? Do you lefties ever tire of trying to link National to the facist parties of the past?
It’s been embarrassing to watch the Greens make fascist comparisons. It’s very stupid. You’d expect it from a 15 year old. Tom’s comment was equally bad.
June 8th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
I’mm time for another.. The Latest.
The People’s Choice Party
Press Release
Rusty Kane
Catch 22 For Mt Albert Voters.
Now that the poles have confirmed Labours candidate for the Mt Albert by-election David Shearer is way out in front. The Mt Albert voters need to really think hard on which party candidate they vote in second place. By strongly voting in the Labours candidate means they prefer Labours option for a Waterview Tunnel. But because National is the Government they will instead get National Waterview Motorway-Tunnel option instead, regardless. But if they strategically vote the Greens to come in second after Labour and not National they will still have a say on the Waterview project. As the Greens have a political working relationship with National, and will still lobby the National Government on the Mt Albert electorates behalf. This will still keep both Labour and National interested in the electorate come the next general election, if the Greens have a strong foot hold in the electorate. Strategically there is now no point in voting National. Strategically voting the Greens is the only way Mt Albert electorate can now keep the Waterview Tunnel option alive.
“The People’s Choice Party”
PO Box 41002, St Lukes, Auckland 1346 topps@kol.co.nz
Contact: Rusty Kane
Phone: 06-758 7688
Postal address: PO Box 5111, New Plymouth 4343
Email: rusty.kane@gmail.com