Labour second choice of Maori on both rolls
Further to my blog earlier this morning, the kind people at Marae have sent me a breakdown of some of their poll results, by roll. This allows an easier comparison to election results.
You can view the episode on their website, including a discussion between host Shane Taurima and John Key.
First the party vote results for the 700 respondents on the Maori roll (compared to actual election results):
- Maori Party 62% (+33%)
- Labour 23% (-27%)
- National 11% (+3%)
- Greens 2% (-2%)
- NZ First 2% (-5%)
That is a decimation for Labour. Their party vote has more than halved amongst Maori on the Maori roll. Some of that will be losing Clark.
Then the party vote results for the 300 Maori respondents on the General roll:
- National 42%
- Labour 33%
- Maori Party 16%
- Greens 6%
- NZ First 3%
Now this is unprecedented as far as I know – National to be outpolling Labour amongst Maori voters on the general roll.
The 2008 data has not yet been published but the NZ election study in 2005 had Maori on the general roll supporting Labour at 54%, and National at 17%.
So from the 2005 election, Labour has gone from 37% ahead of National amongst Maori on the general roll, to 9% behind.
And then if we take the overall sample of all Maori (both rolls) we have:
- Maori Party 48% (+27% from 2005)
- Labour 26% (-28%)
- National 20% (+11%)
- Greens 3% (-2%)
- NZ First 2% (-7%)
Again I can’t compare to 2008 as there is no public poll data about how Maori on the general roll voted. But the combined effect is clear – Labour at half the level they were in 2005, and both National and Maori Party at around double where they were.
Also interesting to see the breakdown by roll for John Key. He gets 26% Preferred PM amongst Maori roll respondents and 39% amongst Maori on the general roll. Goff is at 4% on Maori roll and 5% General roll.
In terms of approval of Key’s performance as PM, there is little variation. Maori on the Maori roll give him a net approval (yes over no) of 17% and Maori on the General roll a net approval of 24%.
I have not yet viewed the episode myself, but I think John Key will be very proud of such historic results, despite being a “white motherfucker” 
November 9th, 2009 at 11:25 am
History will treat John Key far more favorably than his predecessor. It’s like comparing Charlton Heston with Norman Wisdom.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Certainly impressive…
IMHO Key’s cancelled tax cuts + Ryall’s health proposals are strongly reassuring a lot of left voters that this Nat govt is not about slashing & burning state services.
But how much of this, do you reckon, is thanks to the current Labour vacuum?
[DPF: Oh it is a mixture of the two, plus some other factors. I think Therese Arseanau is right when she says that it is partly because Labour's 2008 campaign against Key was so negative, that people have discovered it was not true]
November 9th, 2009 at 11:36 am
It will be interesting to see what this does to National’s policy on the Maori seats (and, indeed, to Labour’s).
Previously, the Maori seats were a gerrymander that benefited Labour. With the Maori party coming in, they benefited the Maori party, but the Maori party were presumed to always work with Labour (last cab off the rank and all).
If they are going to hold the balance of power and swing both ways, then I can see both the major parties might prefer the Maori seats gone, but also need to keep the Maori party sweet to as to get into power.
If the Maori party are going to work with National, and then work out that the politics of aspiration will do way more for their people than the politics of envy, that could be spectacularly bad news for Labour.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:38 am
No surprise the ACT Party did not quite make the poll results! ;-p
November 9th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
How can john key work with hone the racist…..but he wouldn’t work with winston……
November 9th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
“However, because the sample sizes were small the results were only indicative.”
Hmmmmm, you seem to have left this bit out David, odd for someone closely involved in polling.
The general trends could be valid, but revealing information behind polls helps provide perspective and legitimacy.
The Dom Post and Marae had a warning, but the Herald seem to have ignored it, funny that.
[DPF: The results are significant, despite the sample size. For example it is 96.5% probably that National leads Labour amongst Maori voters on the general roll]
November 9th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
@Adolf. I’d rather be compared to Norman than Charlton myself…
November 9th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
It would be most interesting to know what percentage of those who identify as Maori are on the Maori role and on the general role.
[DPF: Most who identify as Maori are on the Maori roll. Those of the general roll tend to be of Maori descent, but do not self-identify as Maori]
November 9th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
The love-in between the Maori party and the Nats is not surprising. As I have said on a previous thread (http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2009/11/maori_voters_poll.html#comments) at 9.27am, I belive both parties have shared aspirations. Maori embrace capitalism and enterprise – their leaders now recognize the welfare dependency trap for what it is. Tribes are not socialist or collectives, they are heirachical in structure and the wealth comes in at the top and filters down (sometimes). The litmus test for Maori in Government is the resolution of Foreshore and Seabed issue; if John Key can sort this out I, for one, will be amazed. The report commissioned by Pita Sharples was revisionist history at its worst; claims were made that were blatantly biased with no balancing rebuttal. The conclusion was that all coastal foreshore and seabed should be ‘returned’ to ownership by Iwi. The ‘prize’ at the end of this rainbow is ownership of all minerals under the seabed and control and ownership of shoreline development. Arguments about public access are a red herring, a distraction from the main objective
November 9th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“That is a decimation for Labour. Their party vote has more than halved amongst Maori on the Maori roll.”
Don’t mean to be a pedant DPF but “decimate” means to reduce by 10%.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
History has a habit of repeating itself and while this poll info is not just about Maori there are lessons here.
On election night, John Key stated “Today across the country, New Zealanders have voted for a safer, more prosperous and more ambitious New Zealand. They voted for hope, they voted for action, and they voted for results. They voted for a better life for all New Zealanders.”[1]
While those uplifting words no doubt remain the aspiration of most New Zealanders, it is now less certain whether the socialist constraints that have held us back during the nine long years of Labour’s rule will be removed.
Presently riding high in the polls, the National Party would do well to remember that inevitably the ‘Teflon’ falls off. When that happens the polls trend down and policy mistakes, especially those that rile public, usually come back to bite. And there are now a growing number of such policy mistakes. To name but four: the failure of the Prime Minister to respect the view of the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders in the smacking referendum; an astounding insensitivity to the country’s mounting concerns about racial issues; the cancellation of National’s major election promise of tax cuts; and the unprecedented bulldozing through of an economically disastrous – and totally unnecessary – emissions trading scheme.
It is worth putting National’s polling success into context. The September 2009 Colmar Brunton poll had National at 54 percent and Labour at 33 percent. Adding in the ratings of their support parties, the Maori Party and ACT both on 3 percent, puts the National-led Government on 60 percent. The Prime Minister comes in at a 50 percent approval rating with the Leader of the Opposition, Phil Goff, at 9 percent.
However, looking back to a time when the Labour Government was riding high in the polls, the June 2002 Colmar Brunton poll had Labour on 53 percent and National on 27 percent. When the Greens on 9 percent and the Progressives on 1.7 percent were included, the Labour-led Government had a poll rating of almost 64 percent. Helen Clark’s approval rating as PM at that time was at 52 percent, and while Bill English, as Leader of the Opposition gained a 17 percent approval rating, within three months he had slumped to 9 percent.
In other words, polling positions are fragile, and as National starts its second year in government, it would do well to start listening to the public and correct the major mistakes it has already made – while it still has the luxury of time.
More at;
http://www.nzcpr.com/weekly205.htm
November 9th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
The party vote move is the biggest story here.
That takes seats off Labour and gives them to the Maori Party, who don’t actually receive them because of the existing overhang.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
DPF: Most who identify as Maori are on the Maori roll. Those of the general roll tend to be of Maori descent, but do not self-identify as Maori
Don’t you mean that most who are on the Maori Roll identify as Maori? For example, in 2001, about one in five people of Maori descent did not identify as Maori.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:05 am
Yes but … “Those black motherfuckers have been raping our women, gang-banging and smashing and grabbing from our cars and places of business, making and pushing drugs and murdering the children for too long now … their bullshit about conforming to the rule of law as a black motherfucker is puritanical crime … blah blah blah” “Oh, here’s a salute, mines one finger, your’s Hone might be a cuzzy-bro three finger one, but that remains the salute of a racist cunt.
And this stylish piece of shit is on our pay-roll. The Maori Party has everything to loose.
Fuck you Hone/John.
Joirs, please, where is my certificate for standing up to a black arsed bully? Huh? Can you post it to me, or have you lost my address.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:32 am
That takes seats off Labour and gives them to the Maori Party, who don’t actually receive them because of the existing overhang
I think you`ll find it takes the seats off Labour, gives at least one seat to National, and the rest swallow up the overhang.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:20 am
Incredible result. Really shows you how much damage Labour did to their standing in their last term.